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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 13 Oct 21 15:43
WD Lucky Happy

To be honest i thought Gaelik was going to get up, but the winner stayed on very well. I was surprised at the photo betting being so close, at least initially.
By:
happysandwich
When: 13 Oct 21 16:06
Well done Lucky, that’s your getting in money for Sandown sorted.Laugh

Watched the race but didn’t have a bet because I’m still counting yesterday’s £4.90 winnings from Aimee De Sivola.

£4.87, £4.88, £4.89  …….
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 13 Oct 21 18:44
Indian Cricket - 999/1

700            £4
730            £0
820            £20
940            £3
950            £0
990            £20
1000        £0    £616

Went to the last 2 balls Shocked
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 14 Oct 21 14:56
Good afternoon Guys,

Back in the office but it doesn’t stop me looking at the RP most days when i can find some Andrew time.

The flat jockeys title race is getting interesting (as is my bet) with Buick reducing the deficit to 2 (from 6) in the last couple of days and he may be able to pull another back at Chelmsford this evening. In terms of rides today/tomorrow it’s 15/11 in favour of Buick and at Ascot on Saturday (final day) it’s 5/4 respectively. I mentioned yesterday it could go to the wire and who knows, maybe Adayar will be the decider (no ride for OM in the race).

On to this afternoon, my suggested lay is Ran Rite (Tramore 3.47) who isn’t really named well at the moment although his hurdle form of last year is not that bad in the context of this race. He hasn’t looked a natural chaser in 4 runs by any means although he did win a P2P a couple of years ago. Very much one paced and not one you would want to be lumping on even if it is backed. A small field of 5, all in with a shout really and although i like Champagne Sparkles (the drink is over-rated in my opinion) it’s not backing race for me. I layed earlier, my only bet so far.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all.
By:
Lampus
When: 14 Oct 21 15:04
Good Luck ANDREW Happy
By:
BESTMATE44
When: 14 Oct 21 15:56
Well done Andrew,jumped poorly and never really in with a chance,a nice lay!
By:
Lampus
When: 14 Oct 21 15:56
EASY  PEASY  Thank you ANDREW  HappyHappy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 14 Oct 21 16:32
Lampus/Bestmate

Thank you.

7/4f was too short really and jumping left on a right handed, sharp course, more akin to Wimbledon doesn't help.

He didn't jump that well over the hurdles course either last year, but in truth he's simply not that good.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Oct 21 13:41
Good sunny afternoon Guys,

Only a meagre post this afternoon (workload) but a suggested lay nevertheless in No No Maestro (Uttoxeter 3.40). Form figures of -3211 may initially suggest an improving chaser, but it's not conclusive from a ratings perspective. Ignore his debut run off 107 (PU) and his 3rd next time out wasn’t a poor run by any means (receiving 9 lb and 10 lb respectively). His 2nd (of 4) was a similar story (receiving 14 lb) the placers weren’t at the races and were all but tailed off. His penultimate race resulted in a win by a neck in a 5 runner field where 2 failed to finish (receiving 18 lb) and a mistake by the runner-up cost him the race. His win LTO was at least on level terms but certainly aided by the runner-up who found very little on the run in (has won since to be fair). 

The handicapper hasn’t been overly impressed by the recent wins only raising him from 104 to 107 and in my opinion he’s been a little fortunate (and well placed by the trainer). A bigger field this afternoon, only 3 below him in the weights and it looks a tricky race to call. I was a layer before lunch although i appreciate i could have got him completely wrong and he really is improving.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 15 Oct 21 13:49
Good luck Andrew, just point out that F O'brien has an excellent record with his chasers at Uttoxeter, around 25% overall but currently 57% this season, let's hope Ask a Honeybee wins earlier.
By:
Lampus
When: 15 Oct 21 14:07
G/L ANDREW Happy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Oct 21 14:16
Thanks Stewart/Lampus,

If anyone is going to lay it, it may be prudent to do it IR as he's certain to go off in front, but he's not the most fluent over fences. A risk of course, but at 15/8 i was happy to lay him.

Good luck.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Oct 21 15:55
Could i have got it any more wrong !

Possibly the easiest winner of the day.
By:
stewarts rise
When: 15 Oct 21 16:17
Just one of those things, you put up good reasons to lay it but horse has improved from previous runs, never mind.
By:
BESTMATE44
When: 15 Oct 21 16:50
You can't win em all Andrew!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Oct 21 09:14
Good morning Guys,

Another Saturday champions day following Newmarket last week, this time at Ascot with the seasons final G1 race for 3 year olds and older. The media appear to be building it up into a trio of 'duels' commencing with Trueshan v Stradivarius, on to Palace Pier v Baaeed and culminating in Mishriff v Adayar. They obviously didn't spot Maries Diamond v Matthew Flinders in the concluding Balmoral handicap (i obviously woke up with my sarcastic head on). It's doubtful whether all these purported matches will materialise in a 1-2 and it's not impossible for none of the pre-mentioned to win either.

If i do play any of the named horses i think it will be backing Trueshan and laying Stradivarius to cover a stake in the opener (1.25) albiet mindful of how hard a race he had in Paris a couple of weeks ago (this applies to several runners this afternoon).

I favour Mishriff in the Champions stakes (3.50) more so considering his preparation and i think a 3TBP could pay dividends with respect to the improving Dubai Honour.

In the minefield that is the Balmoral handicap (4.30) i already had a couple of fun bets last night on Dashing Roger and Rosscolyn both matched at win odds of 36. I like both (with the proviso of how tricky this race is) but the draw has been kinder to the latter. I appreciate the favourite Sunray Major could be a group horse in the making, but there is no way i could be tempted to back this one at 9/4, not only based on the high draw and i will certainly be laying this one.

All backing stakes on the above are/will be small but depending on how the afternoon pans out i may lay the latter to cover all stakes and a small profit (assuming he's beaten of course).

Black type races are thin on the ground elsewhere (a soft G3 and listed in Ireland) but on the other side of the globe earlier this morning the 13/10 favourite and 5 year old Incentivise won the 12f Caulfield Cup (easily) despite a poor draw, earning over £1.7 million in the process and heads for the race that stops a nation on November 2nd. He's going to take some stopping even though he steps up significantly to 3200 metres (16f). Mind you, current ante-post odds of 9/4 are not exactly appealing.

Staying with Australia, many will remember the ex-AOB trained Sir Dragonet (Chester Vase winner) who left Irish shores to continue his racing over there, winning the Cox Plate. Sadly he was put down earlier today after a gallop injury. RIP.

Looking at the NH cards there were a few potential lays but one i layed last night is Hashtag Val (Ffols Las 1.40) (there is a NR now). I appreciate the connections and this is reflected in the price but i suspect he will want a stiffer test than 16f on this course with good going. First foal from an unraced dam he has been fancied in a couple of French runs (one flat) but the form is questionable.

Maybe more later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.

Stewart/Bestmate

Thanks. Of course it was a risky lay and much of the reasoning was based on my misguided interpretation of the form but in mitigation the handicapper wasn't impressed either. One thing is sure he will be raising him more than 2 lb on Tuesday.

I've been on a decent run and was due a losing day, that's racing.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Oct 21 09:21
Rhoscolyn

Need to get my eyes tested Wink
By:
TheAnorak
When: 16 Oct 21 10:15
One factor to be wary of today at Ascot is the going report. Here are the going stick numbers given for the round course today and at four recent meetings:

Today  :  6.4   good to soft, good in places

Oct 2nd   6.3   good to soft, soft in places

Oct 1st   6.1   good to soft, good in places

Sep 4th   6.8   good to firm

Sep 3rd   6.4   good, good to firm in places

All of which makes Kirkland Tellwrong at Haydock look sensible. My feeling is that it would be a mistake to assume that horses favouring soft ground will get their conditions today. The last time a similar going stick number and going report was given for Champions Day was in 2015, when it was 6.6 good to soft, soft in places for the round course. Fascinating Rock won the Champion Stakes that day in a time just 0.9s above standard.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 16 Oct 21 11:02
Morning Andrew,
You were due one yesterday and I noticed NNM was heavily backed just before the off probably due to it looking like it might get a uncontested lead like you said.
If the going figures Alan has kindly provided above are true surely Trueshan will be the lay as connections wont have the opportunity of seeing any earlier races, not beyond impossible could be a NR, although nothing to lose running
I should add it has just stated raining here but im about the wrong side of opposite of London, according to MW2 only about 3/4 mm due
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 16 Oct 21 11:12
I should add re the going if the going figures turn out to be misleading
By:
TheAnorak
When: 16 Oct 21 11:31
More detail than anyone could really need here, but an interesting explanation of how the going stick is used to arrive at the reading:

https://www.ascot.co.uk/thegoing
By:
TheAnorak
When: 16 Oct 21 12:09
An update by Ascot at 11:48 after 2.5mm of rain - now good to soft, soft in places. The updated going map shows soft ground from the 10F start to about the 6F marker, then good to soft to the furlong pole, soft final furlong.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 16 Oct 21 12:38
Cheers for the update, will probably just watch the race, in all likelihood wont be able to get a bet on here anyway as site appears to have crashed
By:
BESTMATE44
When: 16 Oct 21 17:00
Well done with Hashtag Val Andrew.
By:
PHS
When: 16 Oct 21 17:47
WD today Andrew. Mishriff the only disappointment but several lays coming off.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Oct 21 18:52
Good evening Guys,

Alan/Lucky

Thank you for the Ascot going status posts.

I didn't see much of the ITV coverage as i was in the city centre, but it looked a very decent card, the best for some time in fact.

The hype bubble surrounding Snowfall has been well and truly burst in recent weeks, sods law she started regressing when i was in Paris for Arc trial day, but in hindsight maybe that's as good as she is, or ever was. Thankfully she hasn't carried my money since, once bitten etc.

By the way, i may be bringing my daughter to Sandown in December (Tingle Creek). She's a lucky mascot, i've only ever taken her to 2 race meetings before, Frankels QA and Golden Horns Eclipse whilst she was on vacation with me. Having said that i doubt Shishkin needs luck to win the race anyway.

Bestmate/PHS

Thank you. A profitable post this morning to make up for the suggested lay winning comprehensively yesterday and making me look a right idiot. All 3 lays were beaten this afternoon, with the win and place on Trueshan and Dubai Major respectively adding icing on the cake.

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Oct 21 18:53
I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Oct 21 18:57
Try again ......

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Oct 21 19:11
Last attempt to paste rest of the post.

I layed Hashtag Val (various odds
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 16 Oct 21 20:32
No need to gloat AndrewLaugh
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 16 Oct 21 20:35
layed it 3 times!!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 17 Oct 21 10:22
Matty

LaughLaugh

I don't know what went wrong, i was simply trying to paste the last few pre-typed paragraphs (i generally use a blank email page) and at first i thought it was a forum issue. Never mind, it was only a summary of the morning post selections anyway so i gave up.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 17 Oct 21 14:37
Good afternoon Guys,

Having almost a racing free afternoon in the city, but i layed one earlier so i've found a coffee shop to watch it run on here. Goa Lil (Kempton 2.40) is the selection, currently 3.0 in the betting and has been supported this morning. Tends to jump to the right, up in class and probably needs further to show his best. 5 lb higher than his last chase win. Likes to front run but will be taken on by Mercian Prince that could also impact his jumping.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
By:
jumper3
When: 17 Oct 21 14:47
Andrew, that would have made you want to spill your coffee. Well done, again.
By:
ashleigh
When: 17 Oct 21 14:47
well done andrew, beaten on the bob.
By:
Eborman
When: 17 Oct 21 14:48
Caught this just in time - Thank you A.I.SHappy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 17 Oct 21 14:52
Thanks Guys

Jumper3 Laugh

Thanks. To be fair he jumped well today, but take nothing away from the winner who stayed on well (as did the other). My only bet so considering i won on a head bob i should leave it that way.
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 17 Oct 21 14:54
well done Andrew
By:
TheAnorak
When: 18 Oct 21 08:01
Morning All,

A repeat of the circumstances noted on Sep 23rd, a Tim Easterby favourite in a 2yo novice stakes at Pontefract today. Manila Scouse in the 1:15 has a better form chance than the last one, but the stats are still much the same, with Easterby now 3/96 in 2yo novice races this year and 1/47 in 2yo maidens. In addition the stable is 0/18 in all 2yo races this month.

Manila Scouse ran 5F at Chester last time, a rather different test today running 6F up the North Face of Pontefract. And on soft ground, if the jockeys make their usual move to the stands side rail, the draw in stall 4 won't help the favourite either.

An interesting opponent is an import from France (still same owner), Barney's Gift, who has a handicap rating equivalent to 81 UK based on his four runs in France. He's beaten several subsequent winners in those races and this is definitely a drop in class compared to those runs.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 18 Oct 21 09:47
Morning Alan,

Many thanks.

Funny you should mention it, when i was flipping through the cards over breakfast i noticed it and remembered your previous comment about Tim Easterby's 2 year old record although i never had any intention to post it. I will have a small lay on it.

Good luck.
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