Forums
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
These 2030 comments are related to the topic:
Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
Page 4 of 51  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 51 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page
Replies: 2,030
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Jan 21 14:15
Thanks Trusty Happy
By:
PHS
When: 16 Jan 21 15:55
WD on the banker and lay AndrewHappy.
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 16 Jan 21 16:05
well done Andrew
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Jan 21 18:27
Good evening Guys.

Thank you PHS and Macintoshmatty.

Saturday thoughts summary

Banker selection - Next Generation - Won 10/11f

Won well considering he was first off the bridle and having to be stoked up by Harry at the 12th, a similar occurance to his previous run where he appeared to hit a flat spot only to run on again. Stayed on strongly and was giving 5 lb to the runner up. The only other runner was in contention and going well until he hit the 3rd last losing a little momentum and having to switch.

EW selection - The Hollow Ginge - PU 12/1

Was in the leading bunch from the start (generally in 4th) didn't jump the 9th well, nor the 14th and faded quickly from this point eventually pulling up. His recent form is more alphabetical than numerical and is probably best avoided until he shows some better form.

Saturday banker finishing positions

W 2 W


Saturday EW finishing positions

5 7 PU


Lay selection summary

Fiddlerontheroof - 2nd - 15/8

Basically covered by the banker summary as he was in the same race. Stayed on well enough albeit beaten by a better horse on the day. I suspect Colin will keep him at 3 miles but this was his 4th runner-up spot in 5 races so he may not be one to place too much confidence in (as Alan alluded to earlier).

Lay status P/L Update

Andrew.in.Sweden 14 Jan 21 20:25

Chelmsford 8.00 - Arij @ 2.76. 11/8f. 2nd.

Current Progress 2/3
Running Form WLW
Running Profit +£50
Running P/L +£6


Andrew.in.Sweden 16 Jan 21 12:47

Warwick 1.50 - Fiddlerontheroof @ 2.98. 15/8. 2nd.

Current Progress 3/4
Running Form WLWW
Running Profit +£50
Running P/L +£56


Good luck and have a nice Saturday evening all.
By:
bitbybit
When: 16 Jan 21 19:05
well done Andrew! Happy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 17 Jan 21 11:21
Good afternoon Guys.

Only one meeting on each side of the Irish sea but a couple of decent races at Punchestown with an anticiapted Mullins v Elliott duel in the opener and a typical much of a muchness meeting on the AW at Southwell.

For the die-hard gamblers that need an early evening betting fix the 18.40 at Martinque looks interesting (Laugh) and at first glance the best prize actually appears better than the graded races in Ireland.

As stated on here in the OP i'm restricting the 'my thoughts' to a Saturday and festival meetings, but below are a few muses to ponder over although i will not be summarising or recording the status later.

The best race is indoudtedly Envoi Allen v Asterion Forlonge (12.30) hyped up by the media as almost a clash of titans. It isn't, at least for me, but a race to watch nevertheless and i will. Envoi Allen is giving away 11 lb (chase win penalties) and this is a lot of weight over 20f on heavy ground.

Willie has mentioned that his runner jumps well, but does he. I actually put this one up as a lay on the previous thread (ended up 4/6f) when he fell and one of the reasons was his lack of fluency (watch his win at Punchestown). Having said that Envoi Allen is not totally foot perfect either although has never looked likely to fall.

Personally i would like him to win very impressively because we all love an unbeaten champion but this afternoon isn't a given. Having said that i think he will prevail by a couple of lengths (assuming both finish) but it's a no bet race really and best watched. You could back John Higgins in the Masters snooker final at the same odds and this is probably the lessor risk.

I was contemplating putting up Willies runner Granpathi (13.20) as a lay selection earlier but he's drifted a little beyond my 5/2 (3.75) limit (as least at time of typing). This is a decent and very open race, any of the 7 is in with a shout. I think the Bromhead runner Gua De Large is the EW value but a NR has made it less attractive.

It may appear i woke up with an anti WPM head this morning as i think another of his fancied runners can be layed in Klassy Kay (14.20) even accounting for the mares allowance. She has won a 16f handicap, but this is a better field, up in trip and not exactly consistant.

As for Southwell most know i'm not a fan of the surface and i wouldn't be over confident about backing the likely favourite Nick Vedder in the last (16.05).

Bitbybit

Thank you.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
By:
Movewiththetimes
When: 17 Jan 21 23:06
Just shows Higgins wasn't the lesser risk and who would of thought that! Like reading your thread AIS keep up the good work.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 18 Jan 21 07:03
Movewiththetimes

Thank you.

I took my own advice, didn't back Envoi Allen, but did Higgins.

I thought he was home and dry at 7-5 but fair play to the young lad. Clearing the table for 63 and winning with a re-spotted Black was the turning point and i think it was still in Johns head in the next.

To be honest even if i had backed Envoi, i would almost certainly have still had the snooker bet (i like the game). I thought Yan would crumble, but he didn't and deserved his win.

Good luck.
By:
Movewiththetimes
When: 18 Jan 21 12:33
Agree AIS the young man got a great future, I think Higgins still can't believe he went in off the black Shocked
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 22 Jan 21 12:19
Good afternoon Guys,

Too busy with aeronautical momentum recently so not much free time to concentrate on the feline equivalent, but a runner at Lingfield this afternoon (3.40) attracted my attention, more so as he’s a short price jolly.

The horse in question is Arji, one i posted as a lay selection last week (2nd @ 11/8f). Although beaten he was clear of the rest, but it wasn’t a strong field for the class (0-80) and he did get run of the race. Slightly higher class today (0-85) but whereas he was joint top rated LTO that’s not the case this afternoon. Both his best AW runs have come at Chelmsford although based on his running style, Lingfield (a speedier course) shouldn’t be an issue. Having said that, he’s 7 lb higher than his winning mark and 11/10 is short enough in this field even with Hollie on board.

A little too risky to put up as a thread lay selection, but i would sooner be a layer than backer at the odds. Of course he could hose up on this track, but i will probably be paying to find out.

Good luck and have a nice afternoon all.
By:
37+73
When: 22 Jan 21 15:47
An absolutely spot summary AiS...excellent stuff
By:
37+73
When: 22 Jan 21 15:47
* spot on
By:
fred c dobs
When: 22 Jan 21 15:53
Thank you Andrew.excellent analysis
Fred.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 22 Jan 21 15:57
Many thanks Guys, much appreciated.

3rd @ 8/11f. Odds-on was silly in my opinion, but easy to say after the race.

Not surprised at the result, but a little risky to post. A pity, getting an odds on beat is a bonus.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 23 Jan 21 08:18
Good morning Guys.

My usual Saturday thoughts with a banker and EW selection.

Another weekend upon us and i'm thankful for it after a busy few days in the office and a couple working remote due to the pandemic.

Not a bad afternoon of racing assuming all the NH meetings pass the planned inspections but Ascot appears to be defintely on. A total of 7 graded races to ponder over and although the latter course is the primary venue i actually prefer the Haydock card from a viewing perspective.

Buvear D'air is probably the main attraction at Haydock (3.15) and on form wouldn't have to be 100% fit on his come-back run to win in this field. Looking at the race conditions he has 12 lb in hand of his main rival although 14 months off the track has to be taken into consideration, but he has a good winning strike rate when fresh.

Only 3 runners on heavy ground and i don't think it will be a strong pace although i expect Navajo Pass to make the running with the other two close up. Ballyandy won this race last year on similar going and will be tough to beat, but i think the favourite will prevail and we could be thinking 1.67 was a decent price later this afternoon. Having said that i don't want to put one this short up as a banker preferring better odds elsewhere.

Over at Ascot, the Clarence House Chase, Berkshires' very own Tingle Creek (albeit the latter is almost 250 yards shorter) looks interesting albeit without the quality often associated with this race. Going back in time winners have included Dessert Orchid and Master Minded, and more recently Sprinter Sacre and Altior, the former being my favourite chaser. More on this race later with an EW selection.

Banker selection

Navan 12.50 - Novice hurdle

Riviere D'etel (currently 2.48)

Yet another young French import for Gordon Elliott, lightly raced and improved from an average debut run to finish runner-up (beateb 1.5L) in a fillies listed hurdle race at Auteuil. It's difficult to know what to make of the form as the winner hasn't run since and half the field didn't finish (although the 3rd was 21.5L back). There are some snippets of place form by a few that have run since.

Made her Irish hurdle debut in a maiden hurdle (mixed) over 16f at Punchestown last month and was heavily backed down to 8/15f. Always up with the pace, a little keen in the early stages and was a bit sketchy at a couple of flights (specially the 3rd last) but rounding the bend he had the field off the bridle and was travelling really well (Jack Kennedy looking for non-existing dangers) clearly the best horse in the race.

I doubt she beat anything out of the ordinary, but the manner of her win was impressive and it was easily the best time of the day based on standard times in very wintry conditions.

She's receiving all the allowances and although facing better rivals i think she will be up to the task and put herself amongst fancied runners for the Triumph hurdle. Either that or i've over estimated her and will end up a few bob poorer.

EW selection

Ascot 3.35 - Clarence House Chase

Fanion Destruval (currently 11.5)

It would appear i'm favouring Gallic bred (not to be confused with Garlic bread) runners this afternoon with yet another import from across the channel (as was Buvear D'air) albeit this time from one of the more prominant French stables. Lightly raced and like the banker selection won on debut for his new trainer, the beguiling Venetia Williams.

There are questions marks about the front 3 in the betting at least, although Politolouge is the rightful favourite and may well win, but he wouldn't be a bet for me. Waiting Patiently is stepping back in trip and Defi Du Seuil has downed tools in his last couple of runs. On his day he would be favourite for this, but you need a lot of faith to back him.

I mentioned on my last thread some time ago that the Sullivan Bloodstock horses transferred from WPM to Paul Nicholls last summer were not running well and Duc Des Genievres is one such example. He probably wants it softer anyway and the couple of outsiders can't win. This leaves First Flow who is running well and we saw last week with Dreal Deal that it's folly to ignore an in-form runner who is stepping up in class.

Fanion Destruval is improving and been raised 17 lb to a mark of 154 since his handicap debut and this could have been higher if he hadn't fallen 3 fences out in the Peterborough chae when going well enough. He has to improve to win (and could) but you could actually strike a line through most of the field (some may not finish) so at the win odds and 2.5 for 3TBP he might be worth a small stake.

Possibly a lay selection post later.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
By:
bitbybit
When: 23 Jan 21 09:44
Thanks Andrew. A shame we've lost Navan. I've backed Waiting Patiently to place. Yes he has the step back to 2 miles but I can't see he out of the top 3. In fact this has happened only once (when UR after being hampered in the KG in 2018) Good Luck!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 23 Jan 21 11:01
Morning Bitbybit

I agree with respect to postponment of Navan, i really liked the banker bet selection but we all knew there was an inspection planned. I doubt i will post a replacment, Roksana looks safe enough but it's pointless posting something at 2's on.

Waiting Patiently is lightly raced for a 10 year old, not so many miles on the clock and the race will be set up for him with Politolouge setting the pace. He actually beat the fav easily in the 2019 Tingle Creek and will be staying on. A couple of the ITV team were positive about him, i just wonder if he's a true 17f chaser these days, but your place bet looks safe.

I have a lay in mind for one of the later races.

Good luck.
By:
jedi sophie
When: 23 Jan 21 11:16
Nice write up Andrew...Excited
By:
jedi sophie
When: 23 Jan 21 11:17
I think if Hobbs has DDS back in form he is without doubt a spot if value...
By:
jedi sophie
When: 23 Jan 21 11:19
6.2 here actually bigger than I expected tbh and maybe allows for another selection in same race...
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 23 Jan 21 12:08
Afternoon Andrew,

Re your ew pick in the Clarence house to be ridden by Charlie Deutshe who also has two other fancied mounts, may play on the spreads after the first (50/1)

Im hoping he might have a good day today especially with YALTARI in the 2.25, massive drop in the ratings and didnt run badly at chepstow last time over maybe too far.
Favourite for a good race here in Dec19 when RP comment was might have needed race and raced off 145

Good Luck today
By:
second again
When: 23 Jan 21 13:25
Roksana could not have won any easier,I hope you had a few quid on her.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 23 Jan 21 13:37
Second again

My only bet so far and as you say she couldn't have won it any easier. Harry took his time and probably knew he had it won some way from home. She's a very likeable mare and i've mentioned her on my threads several times.

Lucky and Sophie.

Thanks and good luck.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 23 Jan 21 16:30
Charlie D finished fourth on the 3 mounts that had any chance twice beaten a whisker incl in th Clarence CrySad
He should have gone to haydock and won the marsh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 24 Jan 21 11:12
Good morning Guys.

Saturday thoughts summary

Banker selection

Navan was postponed and as mentioned i didn't want to post Roksana at 1/2f as a replacement for Riviere D'etel (she would have hosed up Laugh ) we can all pick these.

EW selection

Fanion Destruval (10/1) ran as his odds suggested although jumping the 3rd last and having to make up a little bit of ground i actually thought he may get involved in the finish, but was very much one-paced after the next. He stayed on and almost snatched 3rd place (beaten a head) and was less than 2L from the favourite in 2nd, but simply not good enough on the day.

First Flow did a Dreel Deal and won easier than the pre-mentioned did last week, jumping well up front but whether this is Cheltenham champion chase winning form is debatable.

Saturday banker finishing positions

W 2 W NR


Saturday EW finishing positions

5 7 PU 4


On to other news on the day i thought Buveur D'air ran OK under the circumstances, he jumped well enough and coming to the last flight i expected him to do an Epatante (in the Fighting Fifth) and pull away on the run in but maybe he wasn't as fit as Nicky intimated beforehand. Nico appeared to be easy on him anyway but take nothing away from the winner who pinged several flights and maybe we under-estimated him a little considering the field. Having said that he was unquestionably the best backed in the race so some fancied him.

Looking at his form lines flat tracks obviously suit him and he appears to be ground dependant so Cheltenham in March isn't ideal but it wouldn't surpise me if connections went there although i think it's unlikely.

Royale Pagaille is another where connections are not pondering Cheltenham for him but which race to go for. They have Monkfish entered in the Marsh and RSA so maybe plans will be settled after his planned run at Leopardstown 2 weeks today but i think it will be the latter and avoiding Envoi Allen.

Can Royale Pagaille win a Cheltenham Gold Cup, no in my opinion, although most of us would probably go for it if we owned him. I think he will end up in the National Hunt Chase but is another who appears to be ground dependent.

Earlier this morning at Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Golden Sixty made it 12 wins on the bounce and 15/16 overall albeit only by a head after taking the lead in the last 50 metres or so. But for the pandemic we may have seen him at Royal Ascot this year as the mile division isn't overly strong over here at the moment, i think Palace Pier is best with a BHA rating of 126.

Lucky

It's been a good few years since i played the spread markets (with sporting index). Out of curiosity what was the spread on Charlie ? As you mentioned, the final mark-up could have read a lot better, but for 3 x 4th places, a couple of them photo finishes.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 24 Jan 21 11:59
Good afternoon Andrew from a snowing SE London, started about 1 1/2 hours ago
Early price was 15/17 I played after the first ran unplaced at 66/1 didn’t think it would improve the price but bought at 15, subsequently bought backup to 17 when yaltari  was backed late on
I thought I’d done well but getting done for 10 pts in two close finishes for 3td place only typified my day

Was a layer of Royal pigtaile as well ( big weight, haydock heavy, young horse ) who drifted markedly from 6/4 to 9/4

A day to forget Sad
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 24 Jan 21 12:55
Lucky

Similar weather in southern Germany although we touched 11c in München on a couple of days last week. Much colder over the weekend where i am (west of the city, close to Lake Ammersee) and snow is forecast over the next couple of days.

As for days to forget, we all have them, but as gamblers we are probably more optimistic than Mr Average who doesn't bet.

Yesterday was OK for me, even Bristol City won away in the FA cup. Happy Only 4 bets, 1 a back (Roksanna) and 3 lays all good (including one i planned to use on this thread). Mind you i lost on the cricket earlier this morning that took a little of the gloss off.

Only AW later and i'm not a fan of it, but i thought Pirate King (1.40) was short enough @ 2.22 even allowing for 3 non-runners. I may lay this one.

Good luck.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 24 Jan 21 13:46
Happy
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 24 Jan 21 13:55
WD
thought the winner must have lost a leg the way it drifted beforehand
Not to much to worry about in the run eventual second looked to be going well off the bend
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 24 Jan 21 13:57
Btw power over me in the 4.10 looks a poss to lay ?
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 24 Jan 21 15:11
Lucky

Thanks. My thinking behind the Pirate King lay was although a half-decent sort he's handicapped on a hat trick of CD wins during winter of 2019/2020 but was subsequently injured and didn't race until November.

9lb higher than his last winning mark and a lb higher than LTO for finishing 2nd. It took him 4 races to win after a break last time (although i wouldn't read too much into this).

It was probably always going to turn into a sprint as the 3 main protagonists all like to come from off the pace (we didn't know much about the ex-Italian runner). I think he will win more races in future but i was surprised he ended up 5/6f, i laid at 2.42.

As for Power Over Me in the last, funnily enough it was this one and Pirate King i looked at this morning when reviewing a possible lay post. 9 lb higher for his win but Robyn has transformed him (2/2) and he's lightly raced. It's the type i occasionally lay, albeit not this afternoon, but good luck if you do.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 24 Jan 21 16:15
Made the right decision only one this weekend GrinHappy
By:
TheAnorak
When: 24 Jan 21 17:21
Evening Andrew,

Re the Buveur D'Air race, was the winner 'well backed' or was it just front runner money? It's pretty clear to me, even though my attention most of the week is limited, that IR players latch on to any horse shown on screen walking round at the start and showing a clear intention to lead. Presumably they do this because they know front running increases their chance of laying off the bet mid race.

It was plain as day at the start that neither of the two favourites were going to even try to make the running, and that the winner would be gifted a soft lead. So much so that even I tried to back the winner, but could never 'catch up' with the rapidly reducing price.

I've also seen the reverse situation, where a fancied horse lining up at the rear will be pushed out significantly in the last sixty seconds of betting. It happened with my chaser, Hurricane Arcadio, at N Abbot in September, when the conditional booked for the ride on a horse returned 4/1 at SP, was walking round in a detached last at the start. He drifted like the proverbial barge on here, touching 8/1 as they set off.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 24 Jan 21 19:18
Evening Alan,

Interesting theory, one i've never really considered as i rarely play IR.

I mentioned Navajo Pass was the best backed in the race as i felt sure he was around 11 on here mid-morning (?) and i saw 11/2 when ITV cameras switched from Ascot to Haydock. Of course it could well be due to the reasons you intimated, we all knew he was going to lead in a 3 runner field and the favourite was coming off a long lay-off so a trade on the outsider was probably the better way to play the race.

I have no idea how low the winner went IR (he was jumping well) but i thought Buveur D'air had the race under control between the last couple of flights. I felt he would win pre-race, but didn't back it.

Changing the subject, good luck tomorrow if you're involved in the 'SOG' runner.

Lucky

WD on swerving the last race winner. Well backed and won easily.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 24 Jan 21 20:48
Evening all,

Looking at tomorrows Kempton card i noticed a couple of runners in the 6.15 race (a Good Friday fast track qualifier) that were discussed not only on this thread but a couple of others at the start of the month.

I posted the runner-up Rahaan (11/8f) as the lay selection who finished runner-up but was subject to a contentious ride that resulted in a 14 day ban (later reduced to 10 days). I thought the winner Bravado ran well and was maybe the moral winner but let's see.

It's a good little race and not just round 2 of Rahaan v Bravado.
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 24 Jan 21 21:13
navajo was 11/1 b365 the night before and was 9/1 sat morning and steadily backed into 15/2 around lunchtime iirc  ,anorak is correct regarding likely front runners price shortening just before the off.......in runners
By:
TheAnorak
When: 24 Jan 21 21:34
Andrew,

I'm not part of the SOG, but they also now own the chaser mentioned above, as I gave up on him. More interested in the other two runners from the stable in the two divs of the 6F handicap. The first one I recommended the trainer to buy, the second one I introduced the owner to the yard.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 27 Jan 21 13:03
Lay Post

Lingfield 3.35 - Outrage

A 9 year old gelding trained by Daniel Kubler (and wife Claire) in Lambourn, Berkshire.

Full brother to Wokingham winner Out Do (trained by David O'Meara).

Consistant since arriving at the current stable with 4 runner-up spots from his last 6 runs.

Genuine and has a win record of 8/48 although tends to find one or two that beat him these days. Has run off lower marks than this afternoons' 83 recently without winning.

Not won for over 2 years.

Best form on tapeta with 4 wins from 5 AW starts (the other at Kempton).

Has raced at Lingfield (3 runs ago) and to be fair ran well enough in the runner-up spot although it was a bunch finish and the 3rd place looked to be unlucky. The winner has been beaten since.

This race will be tactical as the field (with possible exception of Verne Castle) all like to come from off a strong pace. Trying to find the winner involves a little guesswork as to how the race pans out and there's only 3 lb between them on RPR anyway.

The favourite is in the inside stall and even though it's a small field he may have to go wide at the bend.

The risk is that Verne Castle goes to the front from the off a little too strongly and sets it up for the field. He will run his usual solid race and be running on late, but as in recent runs i think one or two of these will finish in front of him, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.58

Good luck all.

27-Jan-21
12:45:21    15:35 Lingfield
Outrage - 5f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:222791462430 | Matched: 27-Jan-21 12:46:50    Lay    2.58    50.00    --    79.00
50.00
Matched
By:
ashleigh
When: 27 Jan 21 15:46
bad luck andrew,r kingscote made the difference. 
seems like not many have followed you in.Grin
By:
hologon
When: 27 Jan 21 15:46
Looked in trouble but ran on well.
Page 4 of 51  •  Previous | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ... | 51 | Next
sort by:
Show
per page

Post your reply

Text Format: Table: Smilies:
Forum does not support HTML
Insert Photo
Cancel
‹ back to topics
www.betfair.com