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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Jan 21 16:08
Alan

When you review form, do you generally rely on RPR or OR ?

Hologon

Or even Gary Moore. No excuse on my part, well spotted. Happy
By:
TheAnorak
When: 10 Jan 21 16:30
Andrew,

I'd always give more importance to what we might call the AP rating. And in the case of the race yesterday, no way could I entertain a rating of 160 for Protektorat, who as you mentioned earlier, was beaten a long way out. He beat a 137 rated horse giving 3lbs by 2L and I have no reason to think that the third has suddenly improved, so for me, Protekorat ran to 142 and MDO just did enough to beat him and could probably have produced a bit more if needed.

But more than the numbers, it just looked such an odd race, that I'd have a big '?' over the form, and I wouldn't be rushing to back any of them next time.
By:
PHS
When: 10 Jan 21 16:32

Jan 10, 2021 -- 8:04AM, hologon wrote:


Andrew interesting as ever perhaps Nassalam will improve if he goes to Garry

By:
PHS
When: 10 Jan 21 16:33
Doh! Quoting playing up again!

I said, if we're doing this (hologon's 3:04PM post) then;

and we have a season in front of us to see how they end up
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jan 21 16:36
You may be right Andrew but I will be waiting for Riders to drop in the weights 10 or 15lbs and in a handicap. If you think he is up to Ryanair best of luck. Four out at Cheltenham is a very long way. Look what happened to Protektorat. Small fields and wide margins can screw up ratings especially when potentially unreliable horses like Cyrname are running. Good luck.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 12 Jan 21 10:39
Common sense prevailed and the official handicapper only raised Lieutenant Rocco by 3lbs to 140. But he also dropped Protekorat by 2lbs to 152, and gave the same mark to the winner.
By:
chavman
When: 12 Jan 21 10:45
the skys the limit for nassalam especially with a trainer like patrick moore
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 14 Jan 21 18:29
Good evening Guys.

A few free days of posting due to forum access issues (had to email daily nap comp selections) but it seems to be working now.

Alan

Many thanks for the two responses, much appreciated.

PHS

At work i type often and always use spell check and proof read documents. On here, never as you have probably guessed. Laugh

Laurie

You mentioned covid vaccination last week, lo and behold i received a letter on Monday with a registration link https://impfzentren.bayern/citizen/

Of course it's only a registration form and there's no telling how long i will have to wait for the jab, but as stated before i'm not overly concerned.

Irrespective of this another new rule comes into force here on Monday 18th in that it will be mandatory to wear the FFP2 type masks in shops and on all public transport. No customised fabric types allowed. Sad

Another covid case on the DLR (German aerospace complex) was reported on Tuesday albeit not in my area. I could be working remote a coule of days a week starting Monday.

I also had an email from Happysandwich on Monday, sadly his brother died from the virus after 4 days in hospital. Apparently he posted on another thread created by Lucky Lucinano but i haven't seen it yet.

On to racing and RidersOntheStorm (it was 3 out when he fell in the Ryanair, not 4 but still a long way from home). If you asked me now if he will win it in 2021 i would say no based on what he's shown, but i only had a fun ante-post bet at silly odds before he ran LTO. Was it you that matched it ? Laugh

Good luck and have a nice Thursday evening all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 14 Jan 21 18:36
Good evening Guys.

A few free days of posting due to forum access issues (had to email daily nap comp selections) but it seems to be working now.

Alan

Many thanks for the two responses, much appreciated.

PHS

At work i type often and always use spell check and proof read documents. On here, never as you have probably guessed. Laugh

Laurie

You mentioned covid vaccination last week, lo and behold i received a letter on Monday with a registration link https://impfzentren.bayern/citizen/

Of course it's only a registration form and there's no telling how long i will have to wait for the jab, but as stated before i'm not overly concerned.

Irrespective of this another new rule comes into force here on Monday 18th in that it will be mandatory to wear the FFP2 type masks in shops and on all public transport. No customised fabric types allowed. Sad

Another covid case on the DLR (German aerospace complex) was reported on Tuesday albeit not in my area. I could be working remote a coule of days a week starting Monday.

I also had an email from Happysandwich on Monday, sadly his brother died from the virus after 4 days in hospital. Apparently he posted on another thread created by Lucky Lucinano but i haven't seen it yet.

On to racing and RidersOntheStorm (it was 3 out when he fell in the Ryanair, not 4 but still a long way from home). If you asked me now if he will win it in 2021 i would say no based on what he's shown, but i only had a fun ante-post bet at silly odds before he ran LTO. Was it you that matched it ? Laugh

Good luck and have a nice Thursday evening all.
By:
PHS
When: 14 Jan 21 19:18
Sorry to hear of your loss Happysandwich.
By:
PHS
When: 14 Jan 21 19:19
"a couple of days a week"
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 14 Jan 21 19:25
Lay Post

Chelmsford 8.00 - Arji

A 4 year old Charm Spirit gelding trained by Simon Crisford (and son Ed) in Newmarket, Suffolk.

French dam was decent (multiple group race winner) although she hasn’t exactly set the world alight in the breeding stakes.

A couple of ordinary runs as a 2 year old.

Reasonably consistent (on ratings) running to a mark of 73 in his first 4 handicaps as a 3 year old.

Deadheated for first place in a class 4 (0-85) over CD in December. A small field of 6 and ran off a low mark of 73 (second lowest) receiving 13 lb from the joint winner. All subsequent runs by those in the field have failed to frank the form.

Raised 6 lb for the win and ran in a similar race at Wolverhampton LTO finishing 4th of 10 (beaten 1.75L). Not a poor run by any means (and form is OK) but not much improvement in my eyes although the handicapper doesn't feel the same as he has raised him a lb.

A total of 8 runners and taking out the two lowest rated the rest are only separated by only 5 lb and i don't see the race the betting may suggest. I think the 3 outsiders have it all to do (although Numberoneson is ‘interesting’) but that still leaves 4 on the side of layers.

If there is a risk (and of course there is) he's lightly raced and it's the stable only runner today although current form is hardly inspiring. I don't feel he's that far ahead of others to make him a 6/4 fav. Jack Mitchell may take him into an early lead but i think one or two may pick him up, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.76

Good luck all.

14-Jan-21
19:16:34    20:00 Chelmsford City
Arij - 1m2f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:221720352614 | Matched: 14-Jan-21 19:16:34    Lay    2.76    50.00    --    88.00
50.00
Matched
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 14 Jan 21 19:26
PHS

Laugh
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 14 Jan 21 19:48
Trouble is Andrew it's such a bad race, I wasn't overenamoured with the fav either but when I looked at the others I could only fancy Hollys mount against it and that stable's not exactly firing in the winners just lately. Horse likes to win though but I'm not a fan of Kempton form travelling to the other aw tracks

Mind you if Rasberrys figures are any good he's got 2 more who can beat it so perhaps you could be right

Good luck
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 14 Jan 21 20:05
we are not worthy, again!!!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 14 Jan 21 20:13
Macintoshmatty

Thanks. I thought the fav had gone far enough clear to win (1.08 IR ?) and Holly wasnt going to be doing me any favours. The winner had reasonable form in Ireland and David does OK with similar tyes first time out. I agree it wasn't a great field but i was willing to oppose the fav at the odds. At 5/2 maybe i wouldn't.

My access to the forum returned at the right time.

Good luck.
By:
madhatters
When: 14 Jan 21 20:18
Wd AIS
1.06 even
By:
STATSMAN
When: 14 Jan 21 20:49
Well done Andrew

1.08 was the lowest it went, according to Timeform.
By:
madhatters
When: 14 Jan 21 20:55
Eyesight going with a quick glance Grin
By:
STATSMAN
When: 14 Jan 21 20:57
Lol!! Grin  - No worries
By:
happysandwich
When: 14 Jan 21 21:21
PHS,
Thanks

My friends brother, 81 was taken into the same hospital (Basildon) Tuesday 12th with Covid also.
He’s not in good health anyway, so we’re just waiting for the phone call.

Speaking to my Daughter this evening her best friend’s husband has got it too and is in the London Hospital even though they live close to Whipps Cross Hospital, he’s a bus driver.

I’m not posting much at te moment because I don’t need the hassle I was beginning to get from TM on the Hat Trick Seekers thread.

https://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31673371/laying-hat-trick-seekers?ts=1610658784645&pg=last#last

Andrew,

Looks like we both had a result on that race.
Mine was never in the race (7th) but I could hear your nerves jangling from here.
Me and H are still jumping up and down winning those £10 notes.Laugh

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
No Nay Bella
3.95
£2.20
£6.49
Ref: 221722880578 Matched: 19:59 14-Jan-21
No Nay Bella
3.95
£7.80
£23.01
Ref: 221722880578 Matched: 19:59 14-Jan-21
By:
PHS
When: 14 Jan 21 21:59
Missed your post by 6mins AndrewCry.
By:
PHS
When: 14 Jan 21 21:59
...but well done.
By:
punchestown
When: 15 Jan 21 09:56
Never in doubt Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 15 Jan 21 14:34
Good afternoon Guys

Many thanks for the comments post-race, much appreciated.

It was a close call with my lay selection in the end, much closer than my bowels were designed to cope with (Laugh) although i did state in the reasoning Jack Mitchell may take him into an early lead but i think one or two may pick him up, hence the lay selection. I was correct, but i was expecting the pick up to be inside the final furlong not 50 yards out.

Nevertheless a loser is a winner, at least on this thread and i agree with Punchestown anyway. Wink

No lay post this afternoon due to work although i did think the down-in-trip Sir Titus was under-priced at evens in the 3.40 Newcastle (albeit a bit too risky for this thread).

Happysandwich

WD keep those HI 5’s and the tenners will soon mount up.

PHS

Unlucky. I normally post more than 35 minutes to race time, but I had posted before the lay selection that took time to type. I was actually in two minds whether to post the lay anyway (it was a risk) but I hadn’t posted in a while.

Good luck and have a nice Friday all.
By:
PHS
When: 15 Jan 21 16:39
No probs AndrewHappy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Jan 21 09:57
Good morning guys from a chilly, snow covered west of München.

The weekend is here again but due to the pandemic a stay at home day with loved ones and a few hours of sport for most of us. Football and snooker will probably take precedence as the racecards this afternoon have a typical mid-week look about them although Warwick at least has a trio of graded races albeit not so inthralling in my opinion.

Paul Nicholls had 18 runners spread over 3 meetings last Saturday but must have other plans this weekend as he only relies on 3 at Warwick this afternoon and no more until Tuesday.

The biggest prize at least in monetary terms is at Fairyhouse but quality of the field could have been better. Never mind we have Punchestown and Envoi Allen tomorrow to compensate.

OK enough whining and on to my usual Saturday thoughts (banker and EW).

Banker selection

Warwick 1.50 -  Hampton Novices' Chase (Grade 2)

Next Destination

Paul Nicholls may only have 3 runners this afternoon but i expect him to get one winner at least and most probably from this race with an ex-WPM trained hurdler.

A small field of 3 with only 7 lb between them on ratings although the selection has a class 1 winner 5 lb penalty to carry. He had a good record with Willie winning 3 graded hurdle races and looked to be on on an upward curve so i was surprised he left the stable in the Autumn (after a break of well over 2 years).

Only had a couple of races for Paul, runner-up in the grade 2 Bet 365 hurdle at Wetherby behind the likeable Roksana (who ran well in the Long Walk LTO) and followed up winning a half-decent grade 2 novice chase at Newbury over a tad shorter trip than this afternoon.

Going shouldn't be a problem and i see him more of a staying type than his main rival who although consistent i'm not really a fan of and actually think the outsider is more of a danger. Although we are likely to see all 3 at the spring festivals in my opinon the favorurite has more scope and could turn out decent.

Currently available around even money on here, i feel he's a bet.

EW selection

Warwick 3.00 - Handicap Chase (Grade 3)

The Hollow Ginge

I wouldn't normally like to back a horse with form of PU4U in his last 4 runs but i'm prepared to give him a chance this afternoon as he's better than the figures may suggest and his chase form is good enough to win this. He's been running in decent handicaps and one of the UR's was at the first so he hardly had a race that day.

His 4th place in the grade 3 Ladbroke trophy chase gives him a shout today even though he was beaten 14L. 3 lb higher than his last winning mark in January 2020 but a lb less than recent runs.

Would probably stay 5 miles in a bog so the trip will suit, going will not be an issue and he's a course winner. I'm hoping that Sam races closer to the pace as he's not one to come with a late run

At odds of around 13.5 he could give backers a good run and 3.2/4.1 appeals in the 3/4 TBP markets.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 16 Jan 21 11:39
Morning Andrew, doesnt PN have his yearly vaccinations (not covid) this month so could be partly the reason as well as the poor fare on offer.
I was against Edwardstone last night but a non runner has thrown a spanner in, so not so sure now
Thanks for the good wishes, all OK right now and well done on the lay, havn't looked at the racing since last Saturday so didnt join in
GL today
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Jan 21 11:47
Lay Post

Warwick 1.50 - Fiddlerontheroof

A 7 year old Stowaway gelding trained by Colin Tizzard in Milborne Port, Dorset.

Dam wasn't anything of note, a maiden winner on the flat at Windsor although much better in the breeding sheds with 2 of her 3 offspring winning a total of 7/23, the lay selection cleary best of the pair.

I don't need to disscet the form as i normally do, most of us know it anyway, he's been on our TV screens often enough. He looked to be going places as a novice hurdler after winning the Tolworth at Sandown last year (handicapper marked him up 14 lb to 154) and he went into the Supreme hurdle at the Cheltenham festival as joint 3rd in the betting (6/1) but didn't show and was a well beaten 11th of the 12 that finished (15 ran).

His form in 4 runs as a chaser has been a reasonble level and he did win (in a photo) on his 2nd run in this sphere albeit the race fell apart and 4 of the 6 runner field tailed off.

Has finished runner-up on 3 occasions, but in a couple beaten by If The Cap Fits and Caribean boy each one not franking the form in subsequent races. He ran well enough LTO and was probably beaten by a decent type in Allart.

Only a lb behind the favourite on BHA/OR but actually highest of the field with RPR. In my opinion his BHA rating is inflated by virtue of his win in the Tolworth and is actually 6lb lower than mark today, not really progressing.

Will he stay the 24f on soft ground, we will know soon enough but he didn't in 2 x Irish P2P's back in time.

I also wonder if Warwick, a sharp track will suit him, it's also a tricky course for a novice although the latter applies to all 3 runners of course

Although a small field of 3 and all the talk of a match, i don't see the race as such at all. Golan Fortune, the outsider is no mug and this course will suit. I expect him to lead at a decent pace with the favourite close up throughout and Jonjo sitting behind.

Current form for the Colin Tizzard stable runners favours layers.

The risk for layers is a small field and a novice chase so we are relying on the other two getting around of course, but Warwick has a low fallers rate. He's consistant and undoubtedly well up to this class, but in my opinon it's the wrong race for him, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.98.

Good luck all.

16-Jan-21
11:33:42    13:50 Warwick
Fiddlerontheroof - 3m Grd2 Nov Chs
Betfair Bet ID 1:221839134350 | Matched: 16-Jan-21 11:37:15    Lay    2.98    50.00    --    99.00
50.00
Matched
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Jan 21 11:58
Morning Lucky

I wasn't aware of PN and yearly vaccinations, maybe a valid point although as we both agree the cards are not that good today.

I also looked at Edwardstone last night, but with the NR a risky lay now.

Good to hear everything is fine with you and family with respect to covid. Germany not faring well with it at the moment and due to an engineer on the DLR recuberating at home after testing positive (the 3rd so far) i could be working remote a couple of days a week in future although i prefer not to.

Good luck whatever you play this afternoon.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 16 Jan 21 12:06
The moderate racing today is down to having five Saturdays to be filled in January - this Warwick meeting normally runs on the same day as the one at Kempton a week ago.

I'm entirely with your lay in the three runner novice this week Andrew. It's not just the stable form, as I've been laying Fiddlerontheroof since his Exeter win, when I thought he looked reluctant and he also has a rather laboured jumping style. Both those factors suggest to me that he has some sort of physical problem.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Jan 21 13:06
Afternoon Alan

Thanks for your input, always good to get a professional perspective on the race.

He's probably the right price at 15/8 (although the odds may drift a bit beyond my 2.98) but i don't think he's as good as his rating may suggest. I will watch the racing on ITV, but i'm only really interested in this race and a glancing view of the graded handicap later.

Good luck.
By:
ashleigh
When: 16 Jan 21 13:39
andrew, what are your thoughts on the mares listed bumper, 3-15 market rasen.
the flat bred eileendover against the jumps bred grangee and merry mistress who are both proven on the testing ground.

no doubt the pam sly filly has been very impressive over 2 shorter trips with good speed figures, but this will be a totally different test over 2m 1f even getting the weight.
By:
madhatters
When: 16 Jan 21 13:57
WD AIS
Cracking race for a 3 runner
Good jumping
By:
Eborman
When: 16 Jan 21 13:58
We are not worthy Happy
By:
punchestown
When: 16 Jan 21 13:59
Great Race and game performance by Next Destination on a track that didn't look like it suited him that much.First off the bridle but found more when asked and it looked briefly in trouble midway down the side.
By:
happysandwich
When: 16 Jan 21 13:59
Well done Alan & Andrew,

Another £10 note in my kitty – thanks. Grin
By:
TheAnorak
When: 16 Jan 21 14:04
Every chance at the last, but Fiddler just doesn't want to go past. He's definitely one to avoid, even if the stable finds some form.
By:
Trusty
When: 16 Jan 21 14:06
Nice lay AIS especially when there is a bit of a sweat. Thanks to Alan as well for double confirmation of the lay.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 16 Jan 21 14:15
Many thanks for the comments post race guys, much appreciated.

As a few intimated a good race to watch and Fiddlerontheroof cleary stayed but was beaten by a better horse on the day who was giving away 5 lb. A pity about the mistake at the 3rd last by the outsider who was going well enough at the time and may even have won.

Banker and lay landed so a good start to the day.

Alan

WD, i suspect you layed it again.

Ashleigh

I prefer the next question whatever it is. Laugh

Seriously, she could be the next coming, but as you stated a completely different race this afternoon and does she really want heavy going. I certainly wouldn't be a layer, but nor would i back her as it's probably a race to watch to be honest.

Good luck.
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