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Andrews 2021 Lay Thread

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By:
glentoby
When: 04 Jan 21 20:14
16 years the latest TM,half maybe for a guilty plea? I doubt it tbh,16 years the best you can expect!!!
By:
The Management
When: 04 Jan 21 20:34
Running Total Profit & Loss Glentoby: = - 24.92
By:
glentoby
When: 04 Jan 21 20:50
Buy a mirror YSDC!!!!!!!
By:
punchestown
When: 04 Jan 21 20:56
glentoby on blocked list,I suggest a similar move by anyone interested in this thread to be able to read it in comfort and it will make you feel a whole lot better.Cool
By:
glentoby
When: 04 Jan 21 21:11
Spot on Punchestown,negates the trolls avoiding exposure!!!!!!! How many more times do I have to repeat????
By:
xam
When: 04 Jan 21 21:35
Brain dead imbecile, blocked here as well.
By:
flukes
When: 04 Jan 21 21:39
Blocked here too now, implore others to do the same. Enough is enough.
By:
fronter
When: 05 Jan 21 10:14
Absolute idiot - jealousy I'm afraid, take no notice Andrew et al.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Jan 21 11:13
Good morning guys from a snow bound/lockdown west of München. Snowing since the early hours (will continue all day) and the area looks like a Christmas card.

A free day for yours truly (public holiday in Bavaria for Epiphany) and it's good to be home but the UK race-cards don't appeal that much after Ayr and Ludlow were abandoned. Readers of my lay threads know i'm not a big fan of AW racing anyway (although its better than a blank day of course) and there are several on here that have a better understanding of it than me.

Looking at the cards there wasn't anything that jumped off the page (backing or laying) although i did think a couple were potential short list lay selections for later. Almost half of the races are outside my odds limit on here anyway, but i may post one of the below or just leave it (still miffed after Monday).

The first possible is Super Julius in the opener (12.45) at Wolverhampton (currently 3.65) who has a high draw to overcome and Elhafei (3.25) who is down in trip on the same card (currently 3.55).

Some may remember my first 2021 lay selection Rahaan 11/8f (last Saturday) who caused a little controversy with the ride he was given. I mentioned post race i was curious what the handicapper would make of the race, well the winner Bravado has been raised 7 lb to a mark of 93 and Rahaan 5lb to 90 (effectively increasing the winners superiority by 2 lb) so both eligible for the lower end Heritage handicaps at least.

Looking further ahead to the Silviniaco Conti Chase at Kempton on Saturday i'm interested in how RidersOntheStorm runs. I put this one up at double figure odds for the Ryanair last year and in my opinion he may have been unlucky falling 3 out when close up and going well. It was a decent field that day and Min (1st) A Plus Tard (3rd) and Frodon (4th) have all advertised the form in no uncertain terms since.

The likely favourite Imperial Aura may be hard to beat on Saturday and consequently enhance his chances in the 2021 Ryanair although i was surprised to see ROTS was 55/1 for the latter race on here. Mind you he has to put a very poor run LTO behind him.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all. Happy
By:
Markyacard
When: 06 Jan 21 11:44
Morning A.i.S,

The Bravado handicap mark might be lenient returned to turf. I'll be doing a rain dance the weekend before Glorious Goodwood.
They can keep Rohaan winning aw races going up another stone at short prices, i'll side with Bravado when the prize money is decent.
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 06 Jan 21 11:58
With you if you go with Super Julius as your lay Andrew
Sent this to a friend about the race

'The 5f looks like a burn up with Super Julius (bad draw), We're Reunited,Angel eyes and Arzaak all likely to want to lead
So my dart falls on Jumirah Bridge, stable just coming out of the doldrums, but clutching at straws really'

Think the Banham stable like to get wins first time out with their purchases, this ones been unlucky really as it has run consistently well without winning
Today it has the worst draw and is having its 3rd run in a short time

Good luck if you play
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Jan 21 12:39
Afternoon Markycard

It wouldn't surprise if he returned to turf soon. Although it was an egg and spoon race he won at Redcar he had everything off the bridle 2f out and won easily (almost 5L) easing up with the jockey looking around several times. He's speedy and maybe doesn't get enough credit for the win LTO due to the controversial ride by a conditional jockey on the favourite. I think he will turn out to be better of the two.
By:
EVILROYSLADE
When: 06 Jan 21 12:41
I too have followed the lay with the draw angle and expected struggle for the lead being the main factor.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Jan 21 12:42
Macintoshmatty

Apologies, i didn't see your post when i was typing.

I've layed the first one already. Good luck to both of us.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Jan 21 12:43
Same comments for Roy Laugh
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Jan 21 12:50
WD Matty (also with the winner) and Roy Happy
By:
EVILROYSLADE
When: 06 Jan 21 12:51
It was a heart-stopper, but hey, who cares! Nothing ever comes easy in this game. Well done Andrew.
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 06 Jan 21 12:54
Not taking on the pace dual suited Julius but then Jumira had to go through the gap which I think it thought about
Still we can collect but a bit close for comfort

Scale Force the one to take out the race though
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 06 Jan 21 13:04
No need to apologise Andrew, I know you're a gent

Shame you didn't make it an official lay but at least you put it up there and layed it yourself

I'd be a bit wary about laying your other one,  the problem is I don't think there are loads of others that can win, Born to Sire perhaps and I don't know what they're doing with Tuned for Power but other than that I'm struggling
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 06 Jan 21 15:26
Big move for Tuned for Power now
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 06 Jan 21 15:33
Sorry guys, Andrew right again, we are not worthy!!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 06 Jan 21 15:41
Matty

Thanks and Laugh

Tight with the first one, but no worries with Elhafei, 13/8f and last of 13. I didn't see the race if anything was amiss. I should have posted one of them, but easy to say after the race.
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 06 Jan 21 15:55
Basically led went too fast, trying to use stamina but got fractions wrong imo

Tuned for Power very well backed and ran just behind the fav, both faded badly from last bend
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 09 Jan 21 07:47
Good morning Guys.

Yours truly is in the office for a few hours (urgent work) but hopefully i can get home before ITV racing starts later. Some decent racing in UK this afternoon (no Irish) but it's early doors and i'm not aware which meetings will be going ahead although i would have thought Kempton is safe from the elements at least.

As i mentioned at the start of this thread i'm going to continue posting my banker and EW selections albeit probably only on a Saturday (and the festivals) as i want to try and keep it primarily for lays. I typed the below last night due to time constraints this morning (odds are current).

Banker Selection

For those that like buying money the real banker surely has to be the front running Protektorat (2.05 Wincanton) who jumps for fun but at 4/9 i can hardly post this one although i have a decent replacement in mind.

Chepstow 1.25 - Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle

Nassalam (currently 2.02)

Normally a race for 3 year old novices but due to cancellation (and not for the first time over the years) all runners this afternoon will be a year older. Decent winners in the past include Broadsword and Mysilv and more recently Bristol De Mai and Defi Du Seuil.

Only 8 runners, but a few at least are half-decent and maybe there's a potential star amongst them in the shape of the ex-French trained Nassalam now in the capable hands of George Moore. Will he turn out to be another Goshen, we will know later, but even if he doesn't i expect him to win this.

Has won his last couple of races with consummate ease and although the bare form is questionable (a couple of 'ordinary' juvenile races at Fontwell) the winning distances and manner of how he goes about it have been impressive. The winning time LTO was easily fastest compared to standard from the other races on the card.

Improving, will handle the ground and i think he will probably make all (the track suits front runners). He did jump to the left LTO and against much better opposition he can't afford to make a habit of this although track configuration is at least in the right direction.

It's not a particularly strong Grade 1 with no Mullins or Elliot entries either and although i wouldn't want to be taking silly odds anything over 2.0 is a bet in my opinion.

EW Selection

3.10 Chepstow - Welsh Grand National

Truckers Lodge (currently 14.0)

One of the major staying chases we all look forward to after Christmas and the roll call of winners (too many to mention) include those that have also triumphed in the Aintree Grand National and the Cheltenham Gold Cup. I doubt there's a future winner of these races lurking in the field (although a few are lightly raced) but an interesting handicap nevertheless.

Truckers Lodge stays well (runner-up on heavy going in this race last year off 139) and won the 34f Midlands Grand National in his penultimate race, again on heavy (off 141).

The handicapper was impressed raising him 14 lb but was it enough. He was going well LTO (first race since March) when he pecked on landing, unseating the jockey and may have been unlucky not to win.

Runs off the same mark (155) this afternoon although the conditional jockey takes off 3 lb that may prove decisive.

You could pick a dozen and still not get the winner, but i see him as a reasonable selection at the win odds or 3.20 for 3TBP.

Moving on i'm hoping to post a lay selection for later when i know which meetings are definitely on.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 09 Jan 21 11:36
Morning Andrew,

Here's one punter that will be taking on Protekorat - his habit of jumping away to his left, which was very evident at Carlisle, could be costly round Wincanton against an opponent who jumped superbly round the course last month.

But mostly, just thankful to have some decent racing to watch today.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 09 Jan 21 12:44
Afternoon Alan

I watched the VR's last night and agree Protektorat jumped out to his left at times on chase debut although he was much better LTO. I liked the way he quickened up nicely when challenged to go clear (didn't jump the last so fluently).

Back right handed this afternoon so we will see if Dan has straightened out his quirk (if it is one) and Wincanton will suit his front running style. Meire Des Obeaux was a better hurdler but i feel the favourite will turn out the better. Mind you it's a novice chase and at 4/9 you want a bit on your side.

Good luck whatever you play and as you stated it's good just to have some decent racing to watch.
By:
ashleigh
When: 09 Jan 21 12:57
andrew,have backed riders onthe storm, have you kept the faith? trip more suitable, at 7/1 was worth a bet.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 09 Jan 21 13:12
Ashleigh

I like the horse and already have an ante-post fun bet for the Ryanair at high odds.

I didn't back him this afternoon as i think Imperial Aura will be difficult to beat but 7/1 is a good price.

Good luck.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 09 Jan 21 13:17
Changing the subject, i saw CNN news about an air crash off Jakarta Indonesia earlier, a Boeing 737-500 with 62 pax on board. Apparently the aircraft dropped over 10,000 feet in less than a minute so something catastrophic has obviously occurred.

There will be no survivors. Sad
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 09 Jan 21 14:14
Here's one punter that will be taking on Protekorat - his habit of jumping away to his left, which was very evident at Carlisle, could be costly round Wincanton against an opponent who jumped superbly round the course last month.

WD Alan, won it easily.

Fav was beaten from some way out.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 09 Jan 21 14:20
Cheers Andrew - strange race though. Why didn't Skelton want to lead? And the winner jumped nothing like as well as last time, and rather ended up winning by default. Still, they don't pay out on the style, just the result!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Jan 21 09:46
Good morning Guys.

Saturdays banker and EW summary

Nassalam (evens f)

Ran well enough in the runner-up spot but was probably beaten by a decent sort.

Jumped out to the left a few times and i don't think he liked being restrained in the early stages. At the penultimate flight i was expecting him to extend his lead, but the well backed Adagio appeared to be travelling better of the two and when he went on approaching the last the race was over. To his credit Nassalam did narrow the gap a little close home but the better horse won on the day.

It wasn't a poor run by any means, the 3rd was 20L back and the winning time was good considering the ground. I wouldn't give up on Nassalam but in my opinion he needs to be ridden more aggressively and that may be the case next time out.

Truckers Lodge (14/1)

Up with the pace for most of the race but faded from the 3rd last to finish 7th. He was conceding a lot of weight to those in front (bar stablemate Yala Enki). This was his first completed race since the handicapper raised him 14 lb for winning the Midlands Grand National but there will be other days for this likeable stayer.

Alan

I also thought it was odd, i fully expected Protektorat to lead as i intimated in my post. He looked in trouble as far out as the 4th last and although he ran never looked like winning and was beaten by a better horse. I thought he was better than that, well done again with the winner.

Ashleigh

I think my love affair with RidersOntheStorm has to end although i didn't back him yesterday as i mentioned. As much as i maintain i think he would have won the Ryanair last year if he hadn't fallen he's run a couple of shockers since.

Imperial Aura unshipped Bass at the 2nd so his chances obviously increased and when he looked to be travelling well approaching 4 out and almost upsides with the eventual winner i wondered if i had let a 7/1 winner go. Off the bend he weakened quickly and he will not be winning this years Ryanair on that form.

Having said that has NTD chosen the right races for him this season. I never understood the drop back to 16f on his first run or a sharp track aka Kempton yesterday.

Changing tack, i thought McFabulous was the horse to follow from the winners anywhere yesterday. He won easier than it looked visually and even that was impressive (being wide for most of the race). Mind you Paul Nicholls could win the boat race at the moment with the form he's in.

No time to study for a lay selection yesterday and with only 2 meetings this afternoon this restricts my choice considering the 5/2 odds limit, but i haven't given up yet.

Good luck and have a nice Sunday all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Jan 21 09:48
and although he ran on never looked like winning
By:
punchestown
When: 10 Jan 21 10:17
AIS,my post race comments in the race thread very similar after the Nassalam run yesterday,I also think you might see headgear reached for NTO so I would agree about not giving up on it just yet.
By:
brigust1
When: 10 Jan 21 10:28
Good morning Andrew. Hope you are well. Have you had the jab yet? What is the situation with jabs where you are?

Of the horses yesterday I think Nassalam and Riders are over rated. Nassalam won two mickey Mouse races against trees at Fontwell whereas the winner had really solid, not top class, decent form and won comfortably. They will have to step down in class with the Moore horse. Riders is paying the penalty for winning a bad Group 1 at Ascot, where he was left clear at the last in a weak race with only two finishers. The other horse that fell at the last is a 140 horse imo so he will have to come down the weights a lot to win a handicap. 
Protektorat may be better than he showed yesterday. He won a three horse affair at Cheltenham by a wide margin, and when there are so few runners in these races, if the second cannot win it may be eased right down flattering the winner. Yesterday he battled with the lower rated horse for most of the way and I think that may have cost him but I wouldn't pay to find out.
Happy hunting.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 10 Jan 21 12:31
Afternoon Punchestown

There are no Grade 1 hurdle races for Nassalam between now and Cheltenham so i guess his next run could be the Grade 2 Adonis at Kempton.

It's a good fit in the calendar between now and the Triumph, assuming the latter is a target and i think it must be. I notice he has been pushed out to 16/1 for the latter race, twice the odds of his victor yesterday.

At least i'm not the only one that feels he needs to be ridden more aggressively. Wink

Afternoon Laurie

I haven't had a covid vaccination yet and my turn will be some time yet. Germany has a population of almost 84 million and according to latest numbers out of the Robert Koch Institute (the advisory authority here) 477,000 doses had been administered up to last Thursday. There is also talk of extending time between the required 2 doses to speed up the initial stages of the program.

I'm not too concerned as i never wanted to be one one of the Guinea Pigs anyway (although i wouldn't have been of course) and i could always get vaccinated in Linköping where the population levels are significantly below the München area (if i can return there before Spring).

On to racing it's good to read opinions and the industry wouldn't be what it is without them (bookie v punter or punter v punter on here). I can't agree Nassalam and RiderOntheStorm are exactly over-rated, but i respect your words and we have a season of front of us to see how they end up.

Nassalam may have to step down in class anyway (see my response to Punchestown) but bear in mind although he only beat trees in a couple of previous races at Fontwell, he beat them with such authority and extreme distances he was actually rated 4 lb higher than Adigio who i accept had the better overall form.

Yes, his Fontwell bare form can be 'questionable' (as i stated) and potential was factored into the odds yesterday, but the race wasn't run to suit, although i'm not knocking the winner who did it well.

We will have a better idea how decent he is next time out when i suspect he will be ridden far more aggressively. You may see a different horse and 16/1 for the Triumph could look good although winning this race doesn't necessarily make him a champion of course (look at last years 'moral' winner).

As for RidersOntheStorm, i accept he may have been lucky to win at Ascot the second time (it wasn't a given the challenger would have won) but this was a hat trick of wins (after being raised 22 lb to 162) and being unbeaten since being transferred to NTD. 

Don't forget Cyrname was in this race at a time when most thought he was the second coming (4/11f that day). The handicapper didn't move his mark after the win and in his next race (Ryanair) he may have been unlucky falling 3 out when close up and going well. It was a decent field that day and Min (1st) A Plus Tard (3rd) and Frodon (4th) have all advertised the form in no uncertain terms since to support his rating.

I will continue to monitor him, albeit without a financial interest (except for my fun bet at 50 for the Ryanair) until if and when he returns to form. Although he's run a like a pig in two runs this season, i don't think either race suited him (distance and track respectively).

Good luck.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 10 Jan 21 12:39
The Post ratings have given Protekorat the same mark (160) for yesterday as he earned at Cheltenham. To do that they have concluded that Messire Des Obeaux improved by 8lbs and Lieutenant Rocco by 9lbs.

If the official handicapper agrees, we'll have the ridiculous situation of the horse that finished last being raised 10lbs or more in the revised ratings published on Tuesday. And people wonder why we get small fields in this type of novice chase.
By:
hologon
When: 10 Jan 21 14:04
Andrew interesting as ever perhaps Nassalam will improve if he goes to Garry  Moore
By:
hologon
When: 10 Jan 21 14:04
Andrew interesting as ever perhaps Nassalam will improve if he goes to Garry  Moore
By:
hologon
When: 10 Jan 21 14:04
Instead of Georgw
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