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Andrew.in.Sweden
02 Jan 21 07:57
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Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,283 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys/Girls and a HAPPY NEW YEAR 2021 to all.

I don't need to start this thread by explaining history behind it as i did in previous years (most readers know it anyway) so lets get straight into the concept for those that are not familiar.

Conditions of each lay post will be exactly the same as they always were (since April 2018). Only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under and matched on here to win a level stake of £50. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post together with what i consider a reasonable reasoning for the lay selection. For complete transparency i will post the status and running P/L.

My first thread had 66 selections in 70 days but i was home for 5 weeks at the time and since then have become more infrequent simply due to work commitments although the latter has reduced a little in recently. I hope to be able to post more often in 2021.

The 4 previous threads (2 in 2018) were all profitable with an current overall gain of £2242 to a level stake (breakdown at the end of this post) although the last couple were a little disappointing. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why but it would be pointless and appear i was looking for excuses.

I will also continue to post my 'thoughts of the day' albeit reduced in content (one banker and one EW) and primarily on Saturdays.

As on all my lay threads everyone is welcome to post, banter is more than welcome and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. We all noticed on the previous thread there are those that have no interest in the game or anything constructive to say (preferring to act as childish trolls) but this is sadly a reflection of social media we know today. 

My previous lay threads record (all on this forum)

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level stake £50

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (late Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level stake £50

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (reduced selections)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level stake £50

Random Lay Thread 2020 (reduced selections)
Total 36 selections
Success 25/36
Strike rate 69%
Overall profit +£79 to level stake £50

Good luck to all in 2021 Happy

I have a couple on a shortlist for today and expect to post later.

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By:
Eborman
When: 02 Jan 21 08:00
AIS

Looking forward to adding to my bank account again this yearExcited

Although the greater pleasure is reading your posts!!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 02 Jan 21 09:44
Thoughts of the day

Banker - Sandown 2.25 - Tolworth Hurdle

Mieter (currently 2.36).

This race is often a reliable guide to the Cheltenham festival, several previous winners will be well known to NH racing fans including the great Desert Orchid in bygone years.

Some may also remember the NZ bred Grand Canyon a prolific front runner (trained by Derek Kent) who won the race. Unfortunately he failed to shine in the Supreme Hurdle at odds of 4/9 although he was beaten by the un-regarded (at the time) Beacon Light who later became a useful hurdler in a very good era (Night Nurse et all).

Grand Canyon was more of a stayer (and a decent one) who was the first foreign horse to win the Colonial Cup (USA) and also won in France and Italy. Worldwide flat race winners are fairly commonplace today (think Aiden) but back then this was some achievement.

Colin Tizzard has won 3 of the last 5 runnings of the race and Irish jockeys the last 7, but at least one of these stats will be broken this afternoon as Colin doesn't have a runner.

Mieter is a decent flat performer and unbeaten in a couple of hurdle races winning with relative ease although he's up in class this afternoon. Trip and going will not be an issue. He did jump a bit to the right at times LTO (Sandown is right handed) but even so it was a decent time (best of the day by 'standard').

I don't think it's the best field for the race compared to recent seasons and he may be better class then these. We could be hearing more about him if he wins this afternoon as i expect.

EW - Sandown 3.00 - Veterans Handicap

Fingerontheswitch (currently 13.0 and 3.10 4TBP)

A regular in class 2 and 3 handicap races over the past couple of seasons with mixed success (4 wins and 11 podium places from 24 chases). Stays on well and runs off a mark of 135 with a reasonable weight in a competitive race.

The female conditional jockey gets on well with him and it's a positive that she retains the ride taking off 7 lb.

Has to put a poor run LTO behind him, but it was his first run since March.

A reliable jumper (never fallen) and if Millie can get him into a good rhythm in the back straight (7 fences) i can see him a taking a hand in the finish although these veteran handicaps are a little hit and miss sometimes.

I put up Minellacelebration on here when he won a similar race at Aintree in October (i think i advised at  odds of 15) and did consider this one but he's giving a fair bit of weight away to my selection.

Please note these are only thoughts and do not constitute any part of the lay P/L.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. Happy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 02 Jan 21 10:45
Lay Post

Lingfield 2.20 - Rahaan

A 3 year old Mayson gelding trained by David Evans in Pandy, Monmouthshire.

Dam was a CD winner and has thrown her fair share of winners from 6 offspring although nothing of note.

The selection is on a roll winning his last 3 races all on the AW including LTO over CD.

His winning run started in a class 6 nursery at Newcastle (6f) off a mark of 55 when he was obviously well ahead of the handicapper. Considering he was 150/1 and 100/1 in his previous couple of races (respectively) yet was backed to 4/1 adds support to this.

He was raised 6 lb (to 61) for his next run in a class 5 nursery at Kempton (7f) and won well enough (13/8f) although he was receiving 15 lb and 11 lb from the 2nd and 3rd.

Stepped up in class (4) LTO and won well enough over CD (class 4) by 1.25L although again was receiving 11lb and 10 lb from the the 2nd and 3rd.

The handicapper has taken a sterner view this time raising him 12 lb.

The runner-up re-opposes and is 15 lb better off for 1.25L.

Same class and CD this afternoon although the shoe is on the other foot and he's giving weight away to his rivals this time.

His 4th run since December 1st.

A small field of 5 (mainly lightly-raced rivals) but a tricky handicap with only 9 lb between top and bottom. I don't think the outsider will win but any of the others could.

The risk is obvious, an improving sort going for a 4 timer but he's 30 lb higher than when he commended his winning run and more significantly 12 lb higher than his last run (jockey takes off 3 lb). His rivals look decent (one unbeaten) in the context of this race, hence the lay selection.

Lay @ 2.74

Good luck all.

02-Jan-21
11:26:52    14:20 Lingfield
Rohaan - 6f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:220793345380 | Matched: 02-Jan-21 11:26:58    Lay    2.74    50.00    --    87.00
50.00
Matched
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 02 Jan 21 10:48
commended = commenced
By:
Cork Langer
When: 02 Jan 21 10:52
Up and running, looking forward to following your progress, just one suggestion, as and when your stalker appears, ignore him completely, irrespective of the level of provocation, no reply is a hundred times more effective than any other form, best of luck for 2021
By:
bob dylan
When: 02 Jan 21 11:00
that works with dogs.
By:
gdrj
When: 02 Jan 21 12:03
And squirrels.
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 02 Jan 21 12:33
Brave first lay Andrew, 4 quick runs a negative but it does seem to have the size to carry weight and has an excellent turn of foot
I had Shining Success in my tracker but think I'll just watch

I'd have these two in front of the other runners though

Still good luck on your first lay
By:
Lampus
When: 02 Jan 21 12:39
G/L  Andrew Happy
By:
second again
When: 02 Jan 21 12:43
The trainer forgot to declare Grand Canyon for the Champion Hurdle one year,I think he was fancied to run well.
By:
tanglefoot
When: 02 Jan 21 13:11
Hoping that Andronicus Beau can win the 2.20
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 02 Jan 21 13:22
well done Andrew

We are not worthy
By:
hologon
When: 02 Jan 21 13:23
Informative and profitable as ever.
Many thanks Andrew
By:
Eborman
When: 02 Jan 21 13:24
Not worthy... but richer!!

Thanks again AIS
By:
Mat22
When: 02 Jan 21 13:24
Jock of the Fav must have laid it too Laugh
By:
The collar
When: 02 Jan 21 13:25
Good call Andrew.
By:
Davros
When: 02 Jan 21 13:25
WD AIS. 

One of the most incompetent rides you'll ever see on the runner-up.
By:
basset
When: 02 Jan 21 13:26
good post, well done andrew
By:
Gaze733
When: 02 Jan 21 13:34
Metier drifted all day and won.
By:
PHS
When: 02 Jan 21 13:40
Very nice start AndrewCool. Somehow forgot to watch them both; gonna have to start setting an alarm for racesPlain
By:
Lucky Luciano
When: 02 Jan 21 13:44
Good start to the new thread with the lay, not sure who the jockey on the fav thought he was riding there but good for layers
Cheers Andrew
Wd with mettier  as well
By:
happysandwich
When: 02 Jan 21 13:46
Well done Andrew,

Good start for the new year.

I’m just sticking to my Hat Trick Seekers thread at the moment, until it goes pear shape.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 02 Jan 21 15:59
Good evening Guys/Girls.

Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated as always. A good start to 2021 with a successful lay and the banker selection winning.

Lay summary

Well backed down to 11/8f. At the rear from the start and this was expected based on his previous 3 runs/wins. The eventual winner made the running and caught the field on the hop as he quickened well over a furlong out where the favourite was being tenderly ridden and although he finished with a good turn of foot inside the final furlong (again as we all thought) he was never really going to catch the winner who actually won well.

It could be said the jockey took it easier than maybe he should have done but layers were not complaining.

As Macintoshmatty intimated it was a risky lay but i thought it was worth taking on at the odds and it's always good to start with a shortie (as previous threads).

Lay P/L Status

Current Progress 1/1
Running Form W
Daily Profit +£50
Running P/L +£50


Cork Langer

Sure, will do and thank you.

Second Again

No idea, i have a problem remembering what i had for yesterdays breakfast. Laugh

Banker summary

Mieter won the Tolworth (7/4f) in the style of a decent hurdler. Jumped well and looked the winner at the penultimate flight. Quickened right away after the last and was impressive, although what he beat remains to be seen. Sandown isn't Cheltenham but the latter is surely on the cards in one of the novice races at the festival (maybe Supreme) and given his action, connections will be praying for going to be on the soft side.

I was surprised at the SP and thought he would be around the 5/4 mark. I wouldn't be in a rush to back him for the Supreme, but he's obviously taken a high rank in this seasons novices.

EW Selection Summary

Fingeronthepulse (14/1) was in last place in the early stages and although making a forward move that looked promising at the 15th, it was short lived and he faded out of contention eventually finishing 9th but basically tailed off. As i stated earlier these veteran races are a bit hit and miss and he simply wasn't good enough on the day.

Hopefully another lay selection tomorrow.

Have a nice evening all.
By:
bitbybit
When: 03 Jan 21 09:10
Well done Andrew Happy
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 03 Jan 21 12:00
Good afternoon Guys

I was going to post Hook Up in the Fairyhouse 1.10 as the lay this afternoon (reasoning already typed) but i decided to swerve it. I still think it can be taken on and i've layed it @ 2.40 for the thread stake, but it is risky.

Bitbybit

Thanks.
By:
Eborman
When: 03 Jan 21 12:17
You beauty!!
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 03 Jan 21 12:22
Eborman

Thanks, but a pity i didn't post it, the NR was one of the reasons. C'est la vie.

Here was the reasoning .......

Lay Post

Fairyhouse 1.10 - Hook Up

A 5 year old No Risk At All mare trained by Willie Mullins in County Carlow.

Dam was unraced, 2 offspring, one with a win (flat and NH) albeit very few runs from either.

4 runs in France resulting in a maiden win and runner-up in a 3 year old handicap.

An 11 month break before purchased on behalf of Rich Richie and transferred to WPM earlier this year.

Entered in a 16f Grade 3 on NH debut (11/2) and although finishing 3rd it was a soft race for the class. With exception of the winner (who improved to win the Triumph hurdle) only one has franked the form, ironically the one that was PU. Including those that have run since, the runner-up has been beaten in 7 runs and the 4th twice including an odds-on defeat yesterday (stablemate).

She ran in the 17f Triumph next time out (33/1) but finished well beaten in 11th (of 13) when Goshen UR at the last.

Improved LTO to win a 16f maiden hurdle (10/11f) over this course. A 17 runner field but a lot of deadwood, in fact 10 of the field were triple figure odds. Made the running and although several sketchy jumps did it well enough winning by 12L. Was receiving 7 lb and 10 lb from the next two home.

It was soft then but will be heavy this afternoon and she has 2.5f further to travel. Will be taken on for the lead by Razzle Dazzle Love and this may not be in her favour.

Although a much smaller field (6 after the NR) it's decent for it's class and any of 4 could win.

The risk is obvious, a lightly raced mare with high profile connections and not a stable i like to take on too often although my last lay of 2020 was as such (Asterion Forlonge @ 2.14). However, she has an extra 2.5f to run on heavier ground in a much better race than LTO, hence the lay selection. A pity about the NR who was in with a shout, but layers still have 3 running for them.

Lay @

Good luck all.
By:
punchestown
When: 03 Jan 21 12:24
Hook Up 1.03,ouch.(Not me)
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 04 Jan 21 16:47
Lay Post

Wolverhampton 6.20 - Amniarix

A 4 year old Speightstown filly trained by Ed Walker in Upper Lambourn, Berks.

Only offspring from the dam who was better on turf than AW (4 wins/0 wins) albeit only 2 races on the latter surface.

Unraced as a 2 and 3 year old.

Started her racing career in a class 5, 6f novice stakes on turf finishing 4th of 9 (9/4) in August 2020. Never looked like winning, but a gentle introduction.

A similar race next time out a month later, but this time on AW at Kempton. Improved to finish 3rd of 9 (receiving 7 lb) and it wasn’t a bad effort. Given a short break thereafter.

Allocated a rating of 69 for her handicap debut in a class 5, 7f race on the AW at Wolverhampton. She won it well by 2.25L (receiving 6 lb from the runner-up) although the form hasn’t been franked. From 17 runs by the field (excluding the winner) only one win has come out of these.

Stepped up in class and trip LTO (class 4, 8f confined to fillies) and raised 8 lb to a mark of 77. She again won well by 1.5L. A small field and the form hasn’t been franked again. Time of the race was 1.27 seconds slower than the class 5 novice stakes (same trip) run 30 minutes earlier, although i don't make decisions based only on the clock.

Has been raised 6 lb to 83 and upped in class again (2) in a classified fillies stakes this evening. Not well in at the weights with a few of these, in fact 16 lb worse in compared to her main rival.

Will qualify for the fillies and mares final at Lingfield on Easter Good Friday if she gets a place. An interesting race and wherever she finishes her handicap mark will not change as a result, only if she wins (Ed may be happier with a place, but i wouldn't read too much into this).

A small field of 7 in a fairly open race and in my opinion only the complete outsider can be ignored. There doesn’t appear to  be a lot of pace and it could turn into a messy race.

The risk is she is an in form, progressive filly and being lightly raced could improve sufficiently to win (has to on figures) but this is a different class of field to what she’s been running against and at the weights she will do well to win, hence the lay selection. 

Lay @ 2.88.

Good luck all.

04-Jan-21
17:25:46    18:20 Wolverhampton
Amniarix - 7f Cond Stks
Betfair Bet ID 1:220982594723 | Matched: 04-Jan-21 17:26:48    Lay    2.88    50.00    --    94.00
50.00
Matched
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 04 Jan 21 17:25
Poor choice, favorite far too good.
By:
happysandwich
When: 04 Jan 21 17:37
It never looked like losing Andrew.

I Layed it on the Hat Trick Seekers thread.Sad

Hoping Trevie Fountain can lose in the 19:50 and can get me a tenner back.
By:
Davros
When: 04 Jan 21 17:38
Very impressive there.  Despite her running style she can win slowly and fast run races, which isn't often the case.  She has the tools to make a good transition to turf.
By:
glentoby
When: 04 Jan 21 18:04
Slough or Swindon? Let the Forum decide IMVHO? The majority are well aware,the "Prints" are irrefutable given the technology or lack of it in your case,WHY continue LYING and not just get on with your opinion on betting?

Too ashamed?
By:
glentoby
When: 04 Jan 21 18:06
BTW TREVI FOUNTAIN will be a coin you should never have "Tossed",make a wish nonetheless!!!!WinkWink
By:
the dealer
When: 04 Jan 21 18:13
I know who he is, I know where he lives and I know where he works, everything Andrew has said about himself is true,
By:
glentoby
When: 04 Jan 21 18:26
And If my Aunt had bollox she would be my UNCLE dealer,that apart at least you havent lied i.e......not said he is in Munchen which 1.01 you would lose!!!!CoolWinkWink
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 04 Jan 21 18:44
Good evening Guys.

I got this one totally wrong Sad

Lay summary

Won @ 7/4f and i have to be honest won easily.

She could be half-decent and i assume will certainly be going for the filly and mares race at Lingfield on April 2nd (Easter Friday). She may not be favorite there but is improving at a rate of knots and i guess Bjorn (same owner as Stradivarius) must have seen something to keep her unraced at 2 and 3. A poor lay.

Lay P/L Status

Current Progress 1/2
Running Form WL
Daily Loss £94
Running P/L -£44


My good run (11 from last 13) continuing from the 2020 thread was halted as a result but it's early days.

Have a nice evening all.
By:
glentoby
When: 04 Jan 21 18:49
Good evening AIS,over 40 years of listening to lies,Gutersloh being only one point of work,Dieter being a real person,Munchen being familiar,Lunenburg being a bad experience at 17 years old.Anyything you wish to explain?
By:
The Management
When: 04 Jan 21 19:07
You seem to like this thread Tobymug - so below is your Profit and Loss for the selections that you have posted on the forum today:

Each Way Lucky 15:

Trevi Fountain 7/2 - unplaced
Big Kitty 11/4 - unplaced
Critical Thinking 7/2 - 3rd
Amniarix 6/4 - Winner

I gave you double odds for the winner and BOG (you need all the help you can get!)

Stake: = 30:00
Returns: = 10.08
Profit & Loss: =  -19.92 Blush

Coupled with the EW Acca ( -2.00) Blush and the selections you made on Lucky Eddys thread ( -3.00) Blush

Your running total for the day is: - 24.92 Blush

Looking forward to your "snippets" for tomorrow Laugh

Maybe better spending your time looking at a formbook rather than trolling this thread and the rest of the forum imo
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