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chelsea girl
09 Nov 20 16:02
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Date Joined: 21 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 6,381 | Blogger: chelsea girl's blog
Is this free munee please? I don't mind leaving
it tied up for a while, better than the building society.Happy

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By:
stewarts rise
When: 09 Nov 20 16:06
To do what?
By:
dave1357
When: 09 Nov 20 16:06
What race is this? I can't find it in the racing post A-Z?
By:
chelsea girl
When: 09 Nov 20 16:09
stewarts rise 09 Nov 20 16:06 
To do what?

Become President, what did you think/
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 09 Nov 20 16:10
tis three  monet
By:
gobblededook
When: 09 Nov 20 16:11
Never free money: what if Trump overturned results in the courts - would put nothing past that man's ability to weasel his way out of anything!!
By:
howard
When: 09 Nov 20 16:14
what if he dies before jan 20 ?
By:
stewarts rise
When: 09 Nov 20 16:15
Besides Trumps refusal to accept defeat, there is always the possibility he'll keel over before he gets sworn in.
By:
chelsea girl
When: 09 Nov 20 16:16
So it aint free money then, what a shame Sad
By:
Uncle Max
When: 09 Nov 20 16:18
1.07/
By:
hulk23
When: 09 Nov 20 16:18
per the rules - the markets not for him to become president.  it's for him to win the election, which he has.
By:
hulk23
When: 09 Nov 20 16:19
drops down dead now, he still won it.
By:
Ramruma
When: 09 Nov 20 16:24
It is free money but you tie up your stake till someone at Betfair reads a newspaper. If you want to go in at 1.06 then there are plenty of photo finishes where you can get in and out in 30 seconds. Over the weekend Biden was 1.05 so he has actually drifted and that one imagines is because backers wanted to free up funds.

Betfair might settle in half an hour, or they could wait a month before the electoral college meets, or when Trump concedes, or when all the counts and recounts are finished, or when all Trump's lawsuits have been dismissed, or...

But yes, it is free munee.
By:
chelsea girl
When: 09 Nov 20 16:24
hulk23 09 Nov 20 16:19 
drops down dead now, he still won it.

So only a Trump successful appeal can scupper Biden, yes?
By:
howard
When: 09 Nov 20 16:32
trouble with photos is you're not betting on the print finish image.
By:
Uncle Max
When: 09 Nov 20 16:32
Market: Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election? 
If Biden dies before EV count is resolved, Harris is imo Projected President -> President elect -> President.
By:
gobblededook
When: 09 Nov 20 16:49
results have to be certified
By:
Ramruma
When: 09 Nov 20 16:51
@Uncle Max -- rules are (from next president market):

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

So despite the market's name (next president) the market is not on the next president. If there were a market on the next president, I'd be backing Pence rather than Harris, because it is more likely Trump resigns than Biden dies imo.
By:
dave1357
When: 09 Nov 20 16:54

Nov 9, 2020 -- 4:49PM, gobblededook wrote:


results have to be certified


betfair have settle 42 state betting markets without any certification.

They aren't settling because they don't want their CS agents to be exposed to vile abuse from sullen seething deplorables and brexit voters.

By:
gobblededook
When: 09 Nov 20 17:04
Thx dave1357: interesting!!
By:
dr . atkins
When: 09 Nov 20 17:06
the only way you do your money if biden drops down dead before jan 20th now with the virus and age you never know
By:
hulk23
When: 09 Nov 20 17:10
Rules - Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?

Biden has been "elected to be".  whether he ends up "being" or not is immaterial.  so it's weighed in.
By:
Uncle Max
When: 09 Nov 20 17:10
worth a read ramruma - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Twelfth_Amendment_to_the_United_States_Constitution#Electoral_College_under_the_Twelfth_Amendment
By:
dave1357
When: 09 Nov 20 17:15
the rules are:

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market. In the event that no Presidential candidate receives a majority of the projected Electoral College votes, this market will be settled on the person chosen as President in accordance with the procedures set out by the Twelfth Amendment to the United States Constitution.

The bolded has already occured.
By:
Wesdag
When: 09 Nov 20 17:22
BF should settle & open a "keep the race" market.

Seems a bit ridiculous why they haven't settled as yet.
By:
Fashion Fever
When: 09 Nov 20 17:23
its beyond me why are people backing trump in the 1000s between 16-20

I'm sure theres a lot cleverer people on here than me thou
By:
Wesdag
When: 09 Nov 20 17:25
Probably the same ones who were backing him at sub 1.3 when postal votes were not yet counted.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 09 Nov 20 17:27
Maybe they're expecting the postal votes in some states might be re-counted. And re-counted differently too.
By:
Ramruma
When: 09 Nov 20 17:27
Paddy Power has settled. Perhaps they could have a word.
By:
hulk23
When: 09 Nov 20 17:28
could settle that market & open another which is actually "who will be the next president".  that's not what that market is.
By:
Wesdag
When: 09 Nov 20 17:30

Nov 9, 2020 -- 5:27PM, screaming from beneaththewaves wrote:


Maybe they're expecting the postal votes in some states might be re-counted. And re-counted differently too.


But that shouldn't stop them settling the market based on their own rules.

There's nothing to stop them opening a "keep the race" market.

By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 09 Nov 20 17:32
But wouldn't a re-count potentially change the "projected electoral college votes?
By:
dave1357
When: 09 Nov 20 17:33
Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market

They made it a FPTP market.
By:
layingisthewayforward
When: 09 Nov 20 17:35
So why is the market still open Dave and why is there 300000 at 1.06 available?
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 09 Nov 20 17:35
(I'm not looking for an argument here. My book reads Biden +£0.19 and everyone else +£28.46 and that's where I'm leaving it, thanks - I'm just genuinely trying to understand why everyone's convinced Betfair should be settling this market, when they're not. After all, it's in their interests to settle it asap and get those funds flowing again.)
By:
Ramruma
When: 09 Nov 20 17:35
@Uncle Max -- the 12th amendment is irrelevant; it could have come into play given a 269-269 tie in the election but that is now impossible.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 09 Nov 20 17:37
Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market

They made it a FPTP market.


But subsequent to what? Where is the finishing post for fptp betting here?
By:
elise
When: 09 Nov 20 17:41
trump's asked martin bashir to audit the count and do his tax returns
By:
Wesdag
When: 09 Nov 20 17:43

Nov 9, 2020 -- 5:37PM, screaming from beneaththewaves wrote:


Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this marketThey made it a FPTP market.But subsequent to what? Where is the finishing post for fptp betting here?


BF emphasized the point that the market will be settled based on most projected EC votes then ignored their own rules.

By:
Larabrown
When: 09 Nov 20 17:45
£570m wagered on the market so far. Betfair not in an enormous rush to settle.
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