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Rico-Dangleflaps
05 Nov 20 11:40
Joined:
Date Joined: 07 Sep 18
| Topic/replies: 5,549 | Blogger: Rico-Dangleflaps's blog
£62,000 @1000

£31,000.000 tied up..

anywun in ear? Laugh
Pause Switch to Standard View kamala harris next usa president
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Report elise November 5, 2020 6:30 PM GMT
before 270 i think it's harris as the nominee
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 6:31 PM GMT
its projected votes so the states would still declare.
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:31 PM GMT
some of this stuff has never been properly tested in law and you have to remember who is also on the other side
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:32 PM GMT
but that might not matter because betfair rules do not match the us election rules
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 5, 2020 6:32 PM GMT
What if Biden croaks it, or Trump gets him committed to the bin, BEFORE he hits 270?

I mean, they're still counting, aren't they?
Report 11kv November 5, 2020 6:32 PM GMT
If there is any material change to the established role or any ambiguity as to who occupies the position, then Betfair may determine, using its reasonable discretion, how to settle the market based on all the information available to it at the relevant time. Betfair reserves the right to wait for further official announcements before the market is settled.

Betfair expressly reserves the right to suspend and/or void any and all bets on this market at any time if Betfair is not satisfied (in its absolute discretion) with the certainty of the outcome.

DOASYOULIKEY.
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:33 PM GMT
dave , i can't rem the date but the proper declaration date is early december to go before the senate?
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:34 PM GMT
i'll look it up one sec
Report adge November 5, 2020 6:35 PM GMT
rico ..you've lost £80 if you don't
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:35 PM GMT
mostly questions answered here  https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-ca...
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:36 PM GMT
and the rest   https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-ca...
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:37 PM GMT
ffs betfair ...  ndidate-dies-20201009-p563nf.html
Report 11kv November 5, 2020 6:37 PM GMT
Minefield of a market
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:38 PM GMT
shouldn't be really, but in law if the demcs win the vote in theory she has more of a chance of being president than trump
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 6:39 PM GMT
put a dot on the line underneath and the link will show

the thing is that the rules are set so that betfair can pay out as soon as the candidate with the most EC votes is projected and subsequent events don't matter. The only issue would be biden dying AND the states stopping counting.
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:41 PM GMT
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-ca...    ............................................................................ put extra just in case lol
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:41 PM GMT
fck it
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 6:50 PM GMT
a dot in the line underneath
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 6:51 PM GMT
underneath being the key word as a £ $ or € sign will also work
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 6:52 PM GMT
https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/what-happens-if-a-presidential-candidate-dies-20201009-p563nf.html
,
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:54 PM GMT
ta, my text is screwed, if i try to go underneath it posts the line above instantly, no idea what happened to it
Report elise November 5, 2020 6:56 PM GMT
still re the bf rules the question is on where they decide "projected" sits, i initially took it as first to get to 270 but once trump starts challenging in court i'm no longer sure where that now is
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 7:23 PM GMT
in any case there isn't a route for harris to win- if biden has the required number of states his backers get paid.
Report ronnie rails November 5, 2020 7:32 PM GMT
Dave
if you have backed him in the shops I think you will have to wait a long time to collect
a month at the very earliest.

hope you are well
have a nice evening
regards
Ronnie.
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 7:52 PM GMT
betfair rules aren't shop rules - so that would be correct, BF rules are designed to pay out as soon as the votes are counted.

have a good evening also
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 7:53 PM GMT
and i haven't had a bet in that market in any case
Report Rico-Dangleflaps November 5, 2020 8:06 PM GMT
05-Nov-20
11:42:25    USA - Presidential Election 2020
Kamala Harris - Next President
Betfair Bet ID 1:215902438450 | Matched: 05-Nov-20 11:42:26    Back    1000.00    80.00    --    --
79,920.00
Matched
Report elise November 5, 2020 8:17 PM GMT
what you going to spend it on?
Report 11kv November 5, 2020 8:41 PM GMT
New Porch
Report elise November 5, 2020 8:49 PM GMT
do you need someone with some taste to help pick a colour?
Report Chemosabe November 5, 2020 10:17 PM GMT
As the market rules are written, it is possible that Betfair will end up paying out on the "Next President" market on a candidate who does not become the next president, which would be unfortunate, to say the least.

As we saw with the massive confusion over the Theresa May resignation market, the people at Betfair who write the rules for these political bets are not constitutional experts, and they cannot be relied on to draw up rules in a coherent and watertight way.

Anyway, a bet on Kamala Harris could be interesting if, as we expect, the result of the election is legally contested by Team Trump, probably going all the way to the Supreme Court. The electoral officials in the States which are contested by Trump will most likely NOT able to certify their results (and appoint electors) to the Electoral College UNTIL the legal proceedings are concluded.

Even if the mainstream media is claiming that Biden has won, it is hard to see how Betfair could settle the "projected Electoral College votes" whilst the correct number of College Electors in one, or several, states is still being officially determined.

Now, if Biden croaked before the Supreme Court decision (which theoretically might not be until mid-December) and Kamala Harris stepped in for Biden, then the "projected" Biden Electors would become Harris Electors, and the Electoral College would nominate Harris as the next President. In that instance, Betfair should pay out on Harris, not Biden.
Report dave1357 November 5, 2020 10:41 PM GMT
If a horse dies after the winning line the bet still pays. The betfair market is designed to be settled on the projected EC votes after the election and not the actual after the EC process. In addition the market rules ignore "subsequent events". The rules are designed to pay out quickly and they will do so, citing their rules as the justification.
Report Charlton2005 November 5, 2020 11:12 PM GMT
There have been a total of 165[3] instances of faithlessness as of 2016, 63 of which occurred in 1872 when Horace Greeley died after Election Day but before the Electoral College convened. Nearly all have voted for third party candidates or non-candidates, as opposed to switching their support to a major opposing candidate.

given the above and the betfair rules on faithless electors, it is impossible for harris to win
Report Charlton2005 November 5, 2020 11:29 PM GMT
the "next president" in the title is whats confusing you all (except Dave and a couple of others). ignore that cos that's not what youre betting on.
Report Charlton2005 November 5, 2020 11:32 PM GMT

longbridge
05 Nov 20 14:04
Joined: 25 Nov 10 | Topic/replies: 2,669 | Blogger: longbridge's blog
Not a 1000/1 shot.  Not even a million-to-1 shot.

The market rules say "This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election."

There is literally no way that can be anyone other than Biden or Trump.

And yes, the market name and market rules being different things is not exactly ideal


yep, sorry, didn't see this posted earlier.
Report Magic__Daps November 6, 2020 9:17 AM GMT
She has the same chance as Rolf Harris as being paid out on here as the winner.
Report elise November 6, 2020 10:14 AM GMT
won't stop them trading her, any uncertainty creates trades and they're not interested in the final result just the green
Report dave1357 November 6, 2020 10:19 AM GMT
true, I think that was why betfair deleted the thread on politics where an idividual who we will call mr ramper (not his real name) was very vigorous in his arguments.
Report elise November 6, 2020 10:22 AM GMT
was that fxdux that got deleted? the graph tells the story, but if you look at the unmatched chunks sitting at 4.0 and below one or more people are sitting on a big payoff if she steams
Report elise November 6, 2020 10:23 AM GMT
be worth seeing the level of panic if biden get c19
Report dave1357 November 6, 2020 10:30 AM GMT
As I've said before, I think BF will close the market ASAP. Their rules allow them to do it and they can use the "subsequent events are irrelevant" rule to quash any dissent.
Report elise November 6, 2020 10:32 AM GMT
i tend to agree, the first chance might be later today when a couple more declare, can't see a trump phone call happening though he's in complete denial
Report punts November 6, 2020 11:12 AM GMT
Bush/Gore took a MOTNH to resolve so BF should not close the market IMO
Report dave1357 November 6, 2020 11:24 AM GMT
I think they will respect official recounts, but ignore trump's spurious legal challenges. They haven't closed michigan state yet as trump has indicated he wants a recount, but not sure if he has paid the money, $3m, yet.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps November 6, 2020 12:02 PM GMT
shud i green up?
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 6, 2020 12:31 PM GMT
I understand all the arguments that Harris won't be settled as the winner in any way. But ... imagine the stories in the press from disgruntled 999/1 backers if Harris does become president and their bets are settled as losers.

You've got a market with the title USA - Presidential Election 2020 - Next President, and Betfair would be paying out on a man six foot under and pushing up the daisies.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 6, 2020 12:37 PM GMT
It doesn't help that they've left the market up with dozens of candidates other than Biden and Trump listed. If those candidates can't win according to the rules, why haven't they all been settled as losers, and their names removed?

Betfair do that in other ante-post markets. Look at the IPL market, for instance:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.168634253

Betfair have settled and removed the four teams already knocked out. So why haven't they done it here, if Harris et al. genuinely have been knocked out of the race?
Report Rico-Dangleflaps November 6, 2020 12:45 PM GMT
hoping for a mis click?
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 6, 2020 12:55 PM GMT
All they're going to get is a photo in the Daily Mail of gutted Tyneside punter Richard Dangleflaps, standing outside a motor dealer's with his 999/1 voucher and gazing mournfully at the porch he'd always dreamed of.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden November 6, 2020 1:00 PM GMT
I have bets on here and Korals in UK (including 'cover' bets on Pence and Harris)

As far as i'm concerend, when i placed the bets, i assumed it was for the man/woman standing as President on January 21st 2021, but if BF pay out before then i'm certainly not complaining.
Report kevinglass November 6, 2020 1:01 PM GMT
Please note that candidates in this market will not be partially settled and will remain in the market until it is fully settled. This is to allow customers to continue trading candidates that they have positions on and because each candidate is still a valid runner in this market.

This might explain why other candidates still show, it's in the rules.....
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 6, 2020 1:25 PM GMT
each candidate is still a valid runner in this market.

Shocked

... but they can't win it.Confused
Report Latalomne November 6, 2020 1:42 PM GMT
No wonder customer support is so busy presently!  LaughLaughLaugh
Report longbridge November 6, 2020 2:16 PM GMT
@screaming..

"If those candidates can't win according to the rules, why haven't they all been settled as losers, and their names removed?"

Because it's bad enough when they do that in the Premiership Winner market, and this one is orders of magnitude bigger.

If you have green-booked the market, but they settle your losing selections before your winning selection, you have to fund those losses from your balance (or live with being in negative balance and unable to bet) until the winner gets settled - and for the size of some people's positions on a half-bilion-pound-matched market, that's a lot of funds to find for potentially weeks of time.

The best answer might be what they do with antepost Racing markets, where the dead horses or those not entered etc are hidden from the market and backers' exposure freed up, but not settled until the winner is known?
Report screaming from beneaththewaves November 6, 2020 2:24 PM GMT
Yes, longbridge. That's the solution.

But leaving them in, and explicitly stating that "each candidate is still a valid runner in this market", is surely leaving a great big stinking can of worms open.
Report dave1357 November 6, 2020 8:30 PM GMT
maybe but it stops them having to make decisions - and remember it is possible for US voters to simply write the name of their choice on the ballot, so on that basis everyone is live until the final counts.
Report Charlton2005 November 6, 2020 9:50 PM GMT
once the states have declared, THAT is the result according to betfairs rules. the states are declaring for one of two people only. who gets the actual votes is not relevant. if the guy from California votes actually votes his 55 votes for trump after standing for and winning for the dems, bf will still count those votes for biden.

you are not betting on who the next pres is, you are betting on who gets 270 once all the states have declared. they cannot declare for harris ergo harris cannot win in this market.
Report Fashion Fever November 6, 2020 9:59 PM GMT
complete joke how long its taking

one state took the night off ? can't remember what one

madness
Report Ramruma November 6, 2020 10:31 PM GMT
Nevada took Wednesday off.
Georgia is going to recount.
North Carolina is accepting postal votes till 12/11.
Report hello :-) November 6, 2020 11:21 PM GMT
trumps decent into madness will soon be silenced , even his own party realise the dangers of him stirring up 50% of america

they dont want millions of gun totting lunatics wandering around feeling cheated , they are just looking for a cause


early rumblings of angry gatherings already and result not announced yet
Report Rico-Dangleflaps November 6, 2020 11:37 PM GMT
incredible how this world has evolved in the last 20-30yrs..

now full of attention seeking narcissists,liars and doylems.

at least zodie has gone.
Report Uncle Max November 7, 2020 8:14 AM GMT
i played the life insurance trade on kamala - ie back her at 1000-1.  covered my premium at 500-1 for a free roll.  bet is on betfair so i have this until biden is projected with an EV majority, not on actual outcomes. caveat emptor.
Report Charlton2005 November 7, 2020 9:31 AM GMT

Uncle Max
07 Nov 20 09:14
Joined: 18 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 6 | Blogger: Uncle Max's blog
i played the life insurance trade on kamala - ie back her at 1000-1.  covered my premium at 500-1 for a free roll.  bet is on betfair so i have this until biden is projected with an EV majority, not on actual outcomes. caveat emptor.


as has been said already. he wins even if he is dead. not "life assurance" in any way.
Report nofx November 7, 2020 1:02 PM GMT
Everyone who thought that if Trump kicked the bucket or otherwise resigned from office, before votes were done counted, Pence would be "Next President" raise their hand
Report Rico-Dangleflaps November 7, 2020 3:27 PM GMT
can anyone lay my 500 for kamala please.
Report Larabrown November 7, 2020 4:02 PM GMT
complete joke how long its taking

one state took the night off ? can't remember what one

madness


Why ON EARTH aren`t they doing it more quickly to keep someone on Betfair happy? It`s just crazy.
Report 11kv November 7, 2020 4:31 PM GMT
oi weirdo its done so you can stop bleating now
Report EastLower Gooner November 7, 2020 5:20 PM GMT
https://youtu.be/E-vIH6hESRc
Report Fashion Fever November 7, 2020 5:45 PM GMT
is it trump laying 1.04 for fortunes Biden thinking he get it in the courts
Report Rico-Dangleflaps November 7, 2020 6:43 PM GMT
creepy joe officially declared the winner yet someone wants to lay £666,000

Excited
Report Rico-Dangleflaps November 7, 2020 6:45 PM GMT
typo*

creepy joe officially declared the winner yet someone wants to back £666,000

Excited
Report hulk23 November 7, 2020 10:11 PM GMT
Who will be elected to be the next President of the United States of America as a result of the 2020 presidential election?

bidens won, can still back him at 1.04 ??
Report Fashion Fever November 7, 2020 11:14 PM GMT
can anyone see a scenario where trump can win ?
Report hulk23 November 7, 2020 11:21 PM GMT
only reservation would be it took 6 hours to count the first 98% of the votes & it's taken 5 days to count the rest, which will decide the result ... something going on ??
Report punts November 8, 2020 6:35 AM GMT
>can anyone see a scenario where trump can win ?


He can win it in court. Longshot though it maybe...
Report dave1357 November 8, 2020 8:38 AM GMT
The 1.04 is there because people don't trust betfair to implement their own market rules and are happy to lose a bit to green up.
Report big aitch November 8, 2020 9:27 AM GMT
Why isn't there any cross matching being done?

Harris is 440 - 460 in the next president market but the gender of the next president markets are 100 - 150

Willie are you going to back her at 440 and lay her at 150?
Report big aitch November 8, 2020 9:28 AM GMT
That's 100 - 150 for a female
Report big aitch November 8, 2020 9:35 AM GMT
Biden 1.04 to back and Democrat 1.04 to back, so if you back Democrat you are on 2 people instead of 1 for the same winnings
Report dave1357 November 8, 2020 10:50 AM GMT
There are different settlement rules in all these markets big aitch, hence the inconsistencies.
Report big aitch November 8, 2020 11:26 AM GMT
Didn't check that Dave, but do you think the differences would affect the result?

I notice the 150 has been taken and is out to 290 now, if I was willing to risk a couple of grand which to make a small profit I would, but the timescale seems to be very unclear or I would have done a bit of trading.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps November 8, 2020 11:58 AM GMT
creepy joe's been declared winner yet 30-40k there for the taking Excited
Report dave1357 November 8, 2020 12:12 PM GMT
The "party" market rule is

This market will be settled on the presidential nominee who is projected to be President based on the public vote. If there is any material change to the established role of President or any ambiguity as to who is voted in to occupy the position, then Betfair reserves the right to void this market at its absolute discretion. If any doubt exists as to the outcome of the election, then this market will be settled on the official public announcement of the election result from the Federal Election Commission.

It is not in the FEC's remit to make such an announcement, so theoretically this market will only be settled when Biden enters the WH (as then no doubt will exist).

The president market is

This market will be settled according to the candidate that has the most projected Electoral College votes won at the 2020 presidential election. Any subsequent events such as a ‘faithless elector’ will have no effect on the settlement of this market


And should be settled now, but betfair are ignoring their rules.
Report stewarty b November 8, 2020 7:14 PM GMT
Some Republicans went to bed thinking they had won and couldn't understand why things were reversed in the morning. By what I can gather, Trump urged his supporters not to use the postal vote as he thought it was ****. Hence the postal votes were counted last and mostly for the Democrats.

That's the way I see it anyways.
Report stewarty b November 8, 2020 7:15 PM GMT
r1 gg ed.
Report Ramruma November 8, 2020 8:14 PM GMT
My guess is the main markets (Biden & Dems to win) will be settled on Monday. This is based on my theory that the Betfair big cheeses do not work weekends. It is not based on any inside knowledge.

Other markets like the ECV handicaps and actual vote numbers will have to stay open until all the counting is done, which might inconvenience some people.
Report dave1357 November 8, 2020 8:32 PM GMT
maybe their waiting for the guy who bet the million to get 250 markets and get PC charged Grin
Report blackbarn November 8, 2020 8:50 PM GMT
Stewarty B - I think there were two, maybe three Republican(?) states that did the postal votes first, in these states Biden took an early lead only to be overtaken by Trump!!. This seems to prove the logic of what happened in those states that Trump thinks he's won but didn't.
Report blackbarn November 8, 2020 8:50 PM GMT
Stewarty B - I think there were two, maybe three Republican(?) states that did the postal votes first, in these states Biden took an early lead only to be overtaken by Trump!!. This seems to prove the logic of what happened in those states that Trump thinks he's won but didn't.
Report stewarty b November 8, 2020 9:45 PM GMT
You may be right blackbarn but even if three states did the postal votes first I'm fairly sure the majority did them last?
Report stewarty b November 8, 2020 9:47 PM GMT
This is not a bet I may add but for anyone with b@lls looks a shoe in...


Win Only Market
Current odds bets
Back (Bet For)
Odds
Stake
[?]
Profit

Joe Biden
1.05

679097
£33,954.85
Liability: £679,097.00
Cancel all selections
Place bets
Confirm bets before placing  Show % Book
Report blackbarn November 8, 2020 11:00 PM GMT
Stewarty - I was reinforcing your point, not disputing it.
Report stewarty b November 9, 2020 1:22 AM GMT
Yes blackbarn I understand that but in all my listening to the American political 'experts' on radio 5 live and LBC Trump and his supporters are more concerned about the later votes. Up to yesterday as far as I can gather, California which is pure Democratic are/were still counting their votes which must be tedious for those counting.
Report stewarty b November 9, 2020 1:26 AM GMT
Stewarty - I was reinforcing your point, not disputing it.



Stewarty B - I think there were two, maybe three Republican(?) states that did the postal votes first,



The second point you made there I genuinely wasn't aware of. I presumed wrongly that all ballot box votes were counted first.
Report Uncle Max November 9, 2020 6:44 AM GMT

Nov 7, 2020 -- 3:31AM, Charlton2005 wrote:


Uncle Max 07 Nov 20 09:14 Joined: 18 Feb 03 | Topic/replies: 6 | Blogger: Uncle Max's blog i played the life insurance trade on kamala - ie back her at 1000-1.

Report democrat November 9, 2020 3:12 PM GMT
To finish 3rd market makes interesting reading inasmuch as money exists to back Trump and Biden ! Does somebody know something or is this like finding money on the floor ?
Report adge November 9, 2020 3:25 PM GMT
you would think that market could and should be settled as no disputed result or court required....yes , it's free money as you say
Report pablo-fanque November 9, 2020 4:04 PM GMT
there is over £40,000 in free cash there to tie up 1 million for 2-3 months

4% return for 3 months

if it was an already done and dusted result , it would be no offers . there must be some doubt to the rules, going to court or something else in play

i have no idea whats going on btw Grin
Report dambuster November 9, 2020 5:02 PM GMT
Read The Washington Post
Report Charlton2005 November 10, 2020 5:16 PM GMT
10% free money now. only issue is recounts. that will only change things with odds of 100^10000000^10^34^10/1
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