Forums
Welcome to Live View – Take the tour to learn more
Start Tour
There is currently 1 person viewing this thread.
punts
14 Oct 20 10:11
Joined:
Date Joined: 16 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 1,744 | Blogger: punts's blog
13:00, Nottingham

Charlie Appleby in great form and runs Adayar first time out. By Frankel out of a Dubawi mare.. really solid pedigree. 

Looks fancied in the market @ 7/2.  William Buick takes the ride.

13:30

Can't see past Noon Star By Galileo (the king) for Sir Michael Stoute and Ryan Moore having its 2nd start.  Should go close.

Good luck! Cool
Pause Switch to Standard View Notts Maiden(s)
Show More
Loading...
Report i_agree_with_nick October 14, 2020 11:32 AM BST
GL Punts.

I don't think I'm betting in these races but my choice would be Set Point in the 1:00.

In the 1:30, I like Noon Star and Our New Buddy.
Report punts October 14, 2020 11:33 AM BST
Why don't you like these races, Nick? They're good value races to bet in ... you should have a stab at it
Report i_agree_with_nick October 14, 2020 11:41 AM BST
I do like to bet in 2yo maidens and novices but in these particular two, nothing stands out for me at the prices.
Report punts October 14, 2020 11:44 AM BST
oh OK Nick.

I wouldn't put you off Set Point. Palmer in good form and SEA the Stars. Just my preference for Godolphin here.  Sometimes I do get it wrong Cry ...
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 14, 2020 12:12 PM BST
Punts

Backing unraced types aka Adayar is basically a guess (unless you are privy to stable information) as breeding is simply guidance, not every horse sired by greats turns out good. The dam did win a race, but offspring (several winners) are no great shakes (Charlie actually trained a full brother).

All you have on your side is Charlies' strike rate with 2 year olds, specially at this track.

As for Noon Star, ran OK on debut, but up in trip, soft going (good LTO) and a different course configuration. I would rather be with Wooton Creek (form franked and sire of the moment) but it wouldn’t be a race i could be too enthralled about.

Decent stables in opposition for both selections and many unknown quality.

I’m not suggesting they will not win, but i would rather be a layer than a backer. What makes them good value ? There’s not much to go on anyway.

Good luck.
Report giggitygiggity October 14, 2020 12:13 PM BST
If you are going to give tips purely on pedigree you probably should have mentioned that Noon star is out of a famous 6 x group 1 winner Winkt
Report i_agree_with_nick October 14, 2020 12:24 PM BST
Andrew,

As far as I can see, Anna Salai, the dam of Adayar, has two other offspring neither of whom have won.
Report giggitygiggity October 14, 2020 12:30 PM BST
Anna Salai beaten a head in irish 1000 guineas..another thing that could have been mentioned in the pedigree write up in the OP
Report Movewiththetimes October 14, 2020 12:31 PM BST
Frankie turning up for 2 rides on a wet autumn day, if first one don't win lump on second, he clearly likes something, is he riding the next superstar?? Missile could be a apt name come 1-35pm. GL all.
Report giggitygiggity October 14, 2020 12:34 PM BST
That's the point Andrew is making..if they haven't run before it's guesswork. If it is the next superstar they can get beat on debut as well
Report Movewiththetimes October 14, 2020 12:45 PM BST
Not rocket science it's guesswork but like the OP name take a punt on educated logic.
Report stridingedge October 14, 2020 12:46 PM BST
Never my races to punt.

Interesting stats with Gosden albeit small sample stuff. The back end of the season on turf I've classed as October and November. He has a profit on unraced 2yo's in novices and mdns which is pronounced when he runs two in the race.

His record is 10-45 with 4.62 expected when this is the case ROI 162%

3 of the unraced winners were at Nottingham with a 25/1 poke included Tartini when Frankie rode the 6/4 fav in race.
Report stridingedge October 14, 2020 12:55 PM BST
I should just point out that Charlie Appleby also shows profit with his unraced backend 2yo's in these races.

The point above was that for all the jock bookings and position in market with betting on multiple yard runners it often goes t1ts up thinking the ranking is correct wit a yards runners.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 14, 2020 12:55 PM BST
Andrew,

As far as I can see, Anna Salai, the dam of Adayar, has two other offspring neither of whom have won.


Hi Nick

I read the dam/dam has thrown 11 offspring, all winners bar one and 4 by Dubawi (I meant dam/dam in my original post). I know you like following 2 year olds so you're more knowledgeable than me with these two selections. Not a bet for me, but GL to the OP.
Report peaz October 14, 2020 12:59 PM BST
Speed figures suggest encounter orders (1,00) last run was very good and noon star + wootton creek in the 1;30
Report punts October 14, 2020 1:05 PM BST
wd Nick... you should have put some money down!
Report shoodacoodadidnt October 14, 2020 1:06 PM BST
Frankie looking round to make sure he didn't finish in the 4 :D
Report Movewiththetimes October 14, 2020 1:08 PM BST
WD Nick hope you put some on, all locked and loaded on the missile now. GL all.
Report i_agree_with_nick October 14, 2020 1:08 PM BST
I hate to say this but I did have a very small interest.

I think it was 8 on here when I mentioned it, I had a couple of quid at 7.4
Report giggitygiggity October 14, 2020 1:09 PM BST
58% knocked out of placepot Happy
Report i_agree_with_nick October 14, 2020 1:15 PM BST
I'e had a small interest at 8 in Our New Buddy in the 1:30
Report stridingedge October 14, 2020 1:26 PM BST
No bet but wouldn't be surprised iF MJ's pissed on everyone's fireworks up in trip on 3rd start.
Report punts October 14, 2020 1:35 PM BST
Boom.

A nice profit on the two races!
Report stridingedge October 14, 2020 1:35 PM BST
Good job I don't back in these races. Laugh
Report stridingedge October 14, 2020 1:35 PM BST
Wd punts
Report hulk23 October 14, 2020 1:36 PM BST
Ocean Road 26 >> 16.5

Me Plain
Report Movewiththetimes October 14, 2020 1:37 PM BST
WD Punts.
Report giggitygiggity October 14, 2020 1:38 PM BST
Another 64% knocked out of placepot Happy

WD MiddayLove
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 14, 2020 2:33 PM BST
WD with Noon Star
Post Your Reply
<CTRL+Enter> to submit
Please login to post a reply.

Wonder

Instance ID: 13539
www.betfair.com