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Gaze733
09 Oct 20 21:20
Joined:
Date Joined: 15 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 1,652 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
I can give you 40 good horses per day to back and yet I can hardly ever find a horse I would be comfortable laying at BSP. Maybe 5% of my bets are straight lays because they're so hard to find. I know horses that are easily +30%-60% roi to back but I finding a 10% roi lay is like finding a needle in a haystack. You'd think finding a bad horse wouldn't be that hard.
Pause Switch to Standard View Why is laying harder than backing?
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Report Movewiththetimes October 9, 2020 8:22 PM BST
Any chance of 4 good horses tomorrow Grin
Report Gaze733 October 9, 2020 8:30 PM BST
I don't bet in the early markets. What looks like a good horse now might drift to 2nd fav tomorrow and become a bad horse.
Report Movewiththetimes October 9, 2020 8:36 PM BST
Just post them when you get them no worries Cool
Report Movewiththetimes October 9, 2020 8:36 PM BST
At least 2 mins before off so I can get on Wink
Report Gaze733 October 9, 2020 8:48 PM BST
Just finished the day with Alghazaal @10, so easy in the clown market. And yet I couldn't tell you if the fav was a good lay.
Report Gaze733 October 9, 2020 8:50 PM BST
I think backing is easier because 80% of the field in any given race is useless, which increases value of your chosen horse.
Report Movewiththetimes October 9, 2020 8:53 PM BST
Earth to Mars come in...............
Report Brian October 9, 2020 8:57 PM BST
So many free pearls on this forum- no wonder so many are on Premium Charges.
Report Rico-Dangleflaps October 9, 2020 9:29 PM BST
billy smarts are recruiting at 10am.
Report TOP3MAN October 9, 2020 9:46 PM BST
Why is laying harder than backing?

Gaze733
09 Oct 20 20:20
Joined: 15 Mar 12 | Topic/replies: 1,407 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog


I can give you 40 good horses per day to back and yet I can hardly ever find a horse I would be comfortable laying at BSP. Maybe 5% of my bets are straight lays because they're so hard to find. I know horses that are easily +30%-60% roi to back but I finding a 10% roi lay is like finding a needle in a haystack. You'd think finding a bad horse wouldn't be that hard.


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Its all to do with Mindset................. Punting / Gambling is all about greed, so you may find 40 horses to back a day and that is because you have a bigger market to look at because the ROI is better, however when you look for a lay you get attracted to the horses that look like they've got poor form and are shorter price, because yoour mind tells you it is a better ROI.

However the reason why it is shorter then it should be is because it's fancied,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, you got remember in sports that have such poor prize money, touches are required to keep the investors in the industry inticed and that is making double returns, prize money and punted to win, not to mention jockeys arent allowed to punt, but whose to say their families can't. market movements in sports with insufficent prize money, are more likely to have market indicators............. Racing breds Greed as does betting!! if there was no legal tender involved, then corruption would be less likely, but you cant remove legal tender and therefore it is impossiable to track those brown envelope payments!!  The market is the most important part of betting in races etc where there is no will weight in gold to self-fund the industry. If you removed betting from the sport, it would make the entire sport a different industry. I did a test on 600 races - and over 55% of races was won with what would be deemed a positive graph, 39% stagnate movement and 6% drifters!! yet the bigger the prize money the % was more even
Report RothmanMike October 9, 2020 11:23 PM BST
Cos you need a big bank, which not too many have.
I play with £5000, and that is a minimum in my opinion.
Been Laying since 2002.
Hard game, but still easier than Backing.
Report NonVintage October 10, 2020 6:14 AM BST
Essentially it's not, but as has been said by TOP3MAN, there's a difference in mindset.

Unless you are only ever dealing with odds-on shots (or bets you accurately assess as having a  >50% chance of winning), then most of the time you 'expect' your selections to lose. When they win, it feels like a real personal victory and when they lose, you can shrug your shoulders and move on to thinking about the next bet - possibly muttering something about it having been 'good value' under your breath.

When you are laying, most of the time, you fully expect the horse (or whatever the subject of the lay is) to lose, and should be right a lot of the time. When you win, the victory feels minor and the amount won relatively small, BUT when you get it wrong, it feels like a hammer-blow to your confidence and wallet, and did you really need to risk £100 to win a fiver in the first place!

Keep stats for a decent period, work out which you do better at, and then concentrate on that side of things knowing that your record shows that you can and hopefully will make a profit overall...
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 10:25 AM BST
It's not about the bank size. Even with a tiny bank you can risk €5 to win €2, etc. I lay only the top 3 favs, anything higher requires a crazy strike rate. Logic says that if you can spot great value horses then you should also spot poor value horses and vice versa. And yet, even if I know the second or third fav is absolutely great value, I can't lay the first fav because if my back bet loses it's most likely losing to the fav which is often correctly priced.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 10:27 AM BST
Of course laying ultra long shots at a 99.8% strike rate is another story.
Report RothmanMike October 10, 2020 1:13 PM BST
I used to live on the 5th Floor of a block of flats.
Moved to the 6th Floor.
But that’s another storey.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 1:25 PM BST
It all comes down to price to chance ratio, long term profits are the aim, u cant be right all the time  but providing your more right then your average ROI then u will make it pay.

Problem is finding that edge, that doesn't involve the connections to the runner, because all those are in it to make money, not to lose money and with that they deter the outcomes more then the form book, especially in these financial hard times
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 1:32 PM BST
Laying 3-1 shots that u make 5-1 should make you nervous, half the time it is in the know money making them shorter. I've done tissues based on form study loads of time and been stung by many gambles where a horse has seemingly improved 10lbs overnight and then reading the reason for improved form, if I had 100 guesses wouldn't have thought that was why...ferdy Murphy at Cheltenham... his run improved a stone after being backed off the boards, reason for improving that amount, it was a sunny day  he likes the sun on his back....... laying horses on price is tough, u be better off backing 3 or 4 u have as beating it
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 1:32 PM BST
There's this guy who focuses on laying and he's always had only 1 pick a day. There are more people actually focusing on one "lay of the day" but nobody has 3 lays a day because they're so hard to find. That guy lays Graystown today but I disagree with the pick.

I do have 2 clear backs though - Crystal Pegasus and Sepia Belle. That's the beauty of back systems, I don't even know what the BSP will be but I know the horses are good to back.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 1:36 PM BST
And yeah favs can be very tricky. Bad looking favs which finished unplaced in the last 3 starts are somehow not good lays at 2.5. The just steam and win because of some yard info.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 1:38 PM BST
Or a fav that has the lowest RPR rating of 12 horses in a sprint is still not a good lay because "he's a progressive type" or some rubbish and of course he wins.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 1:39 PM BST
Hell even the fav with the lowest speed in a sprint is not a good lay. There's just no simple angle that works.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 1:40 PM BST
Identify the races with vulnerable fav's or what u would see as a vulnerable faves, they make the market, look at ones that would beat them and then stake against.

Whether u would dutch against them or do 1pt on each and win more if the biggest price wins, I reckon wud be better then laying the favourites, because your backing those that cant beat the fav as well, which is a waste
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 1:43 PM BST
Sometimes when I don't like the fav at 3.5 and I back the 2nd, 3rd and 4th fav but the 5th fav wins. So it's probably good to lay when I see 3 good contenders.
Report stridingedge October 10, 2020 1:44 PM BST
If you do FORM it isn't.
Report stridingedge October 10, 2020 1:45 PM BST
Gaze the best way backing or laying is to know something about the horses themselves not just what you see the market doing.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 1:51 PM BST
All depends on race, so u got a fav u dont fancy and u look at the other runners and u believe all 5 others can beat it and cant discount any, then lay the fav.

It all comes down the best return to you being correct. Too many get caught in laying when they know only 10 or 20% of field can beat their lay. Why not back them, u will get the odd one that surprises, but long term u will reap the rewards, providing u understand horse racing.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 1:52 PM BST
U only get out what u put in. No corners can be cut, trust me I tried
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 1:56 PM BST
Yeah laying gives you that false sense of security because you have 10 horses against one when actually it's 2 horses against one. So many useless runners, I wonder why they even bother showing up.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 1:57 PM BST
Striding u should never ignore the market though, every factor should be included, the market is key to long term profits, just like in any business, you have to grasp the market to make your returns.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 1:58 PM BST
Drifting favs win less than steamers so I'll start with that. Easy market angle.
Report stridingedge October 10, 2020 2:02 PM BST
Joined: 24 Aug 04 | Topic/replies: 1,797 | Blogger: BULLET TOOTH TONY's blog
U only get out what u put in. No corners can be cut, trust me I tried
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best advice you'll hear Gaze

if you don't like watching races and doing your own research forget it this game is brutal.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 2:03 PM BST
They turn up for many differing reasons, fathoming what the long term goals of each runner is the toughest task for all punters to find out.

But the more u learn about the horse the more u can gain why it is there. You wouldn't want a long striding galloper running at Chester unless u wanted it to get stuffed. Obviously if it's running against such inferior opponents then u wouldn't lay, but like striding said knowing the horse will help
Report Dr Crippen October 10, 2020 2:04 PM BST
You need to ask the question; if you can find winners, then why bother laying losers when the return is so much less?

The fact is as BULLET TOOTH TONY puts it, there's no easy way.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:04 PM BST
I'm doing great with backs, I just need to do more work on lays. Just got a win with Sultan's pride. Blindly backed him in running at 5 because I knew he was good.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:06 PM BST
DR crippen it's nice to have a green market. If the fav is for example -5% roi why not lay it? I can still back my 2 runners and if some long shot wins I get at least a unit back.
Report stridingedge October 10, 2020 2:06 PM BST
Blue Tooth

I certainly don't ignore the market but It doesn't dictate what I do either most of which is in running in any case.
Report stridingedge October 10, 2020 2:09 PM BST
You won't win in the long run backing steamers at the lowest price just because they have steamed.

That's 100% FACT

Gaze has shown me nothing he even looks at the horses form or is that bothered watching their past races.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:10 PM BST
Hey I thought of a good lay strategy. Take €1k and lay 19/1 no hopers with the entire bank. Make €1k in half a day. Easy.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:13 PM BST
Striding not every steamer is bad value. Steam tells you the horse is better than it looks, and it is.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 2:14 PM BST
Certain yards u know punt their horses, so if their fav are drifting u would be better advised targeting those races to an angle, some yards dont and it's not uncommon for those to drift and still win.

Stoute Fav that drift certainly run like the market suggest more time then not, but u should always know or have watched at least 75% of a field at some point to get involved and definitely all the principles.

Also jockey knowledge is a must, as u wouldn't have an horse benefiting from the riding style of nico de bournville to Johnson if it was a lazy galloper. Some suit others much more
Report stridingedge October 10, 2020 2:15 PM BST
The real world data still suggests that steamers at or near their low points are BAD value Gaze, i've told you the figs before but you know better.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:16 PM BST
Then take the steamers in running at 2x BSP.
Report stridingedge October 10, 2020 2:16 PM BST
ask a question

Is what i'm doing easy and taking little effort on my part

if the answer is yes then forget it
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:18 PM BST
I've watched the clown market long enough to see how inefficient it is. I have thousands of runners manually put in my spreadsheets before each race. I know what works.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 2:19 PM BST
Gaze steamer should only provide confidence not a reason to back btw

U identify that it has a good chance to win, market confidence should just help u believe that you was right.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:21 PM BST
I also back drifters because my horse that should steam drifts and wins anyway. That's when the clown market shows its true colours.
Report ghostlygunner October 10, 2020 2:26 PM BST
maximal punted massively there ran terrible so not always a guide
Report stridingedge October 10, 2020 2:27 PM BST
The market is extremely efficient and you call it a  clown market , unfortunately you obviously think you are a cut above and no one else knows what they are talking about despite the working 10X harder so I'll leave you to head for the next fall like all of the others yo have had on here over the years.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:37 PM BST
Look, I bet other sports than horses, and all I use is clown market analysis. You know where that got me? I win at tennis, soccer and basketball. Especially in tennis, I'm the best expert I've ever seen. I don't know anything about the game, yet I vastly outperform tennis fanatics who bet on it for 10 years. I win at Pinnacle closing odds, why? Because of clown market.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 2:38 PM BST
Oh I forgot hockey, I beat that too.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 2:46 PM BST
Take the next at chepstow. Would I take secret investor on at 3-1. Yes i would if the other 3 hadn't been pulled out, wud i get 3-1 as a lay. No i wouldn't. Would I lay it now without those 3. No because I can only really see 1 or 2 beating it, couple in with stable form unknown. I'd watch and make notes because I cant be certain of a return.
Report BULLET TOOTH TONY October 10, 2020 2:55 PM BST
See avoided a loss,because I pragmatic in my response, sometimes I pass up a return and sometimes a loss, but u have to make rules before u play and obey by then. If u dont u will end up hating yourself
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 3:13 PM BST
I said earlier "That guy lays Graystown today but I disagree with the pick." see, my back system beats a lay specialist's lay of the day.
Report Gaze733 October 10, 2020 3:44 PM BST
Today I bet on handball Calarasi, they drifted from 1.4 to 5 because everyone and their dog was on the other side. They're up 28:18. Turns out they should've stayed at 1.4. This is a classic clown market move. Same thing happens with horses.
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