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G Hall
31 Mar 20 22:29
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Date Joined: 26 Feb 06
| Topic/replies: 9,249 | Blogger: G Hall's blog
When things get back to normal. I did it before,a number of years ago, but other commitments put an end to it.

I will have the required amount of time on my hands, when things get back to normal. I will just specialise in horse racing, anyone got any good advice.
Pause Switch to Standard View Thinking of going full time betting...
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Report chavman March 31, 2020 10:33 PM BST
change your name to G Spot
Report tanglefoot March 31, 2020 10:39 PM BST
To be a good horse racing player,u need all the psychology of a psychopath and only a small percentage of people have these qualities.
Report lord skywalker March 31, 2020 10:44 PM BST
if you dont have a edge,forget it you wont win long term and asking for advice says that you havent really thought it thru
Report G Hall March 31, 2020 10:54 PM BST
Ever since buying the Stewart Simpson book and watching Shergar and Golden Fleece winning the derby I said this is for me.
As we all know especially in the current climate life is short, very short I want to give it another go, before it is too late.
I stick to the better races,and mostly non handicaps but not exclusively. I have a modus operandi and stick to it.
Report Willie Shafter. March 31, 2020 10:58 PM BST
i wos gana say what the lord said but tried to be diplomatic.
Report Cardinal Scott March 31, 2020 10:59 PM BST
Try pre-race trading Win Small, Win Often

Unless your getting on in in age in which case forget it.  You'd be burned out.



Report ItsMeSwaddle March 31, 2020 11:02 PM BST
Might aswell stick it here Willie.

Do you know of anyone that punts in play and can make a decent living pure from looking at sectionals of the first X furlongs?

If yes are they track players or sit at home.
Report rock piper March 31, 2020 11:31 PM BST
If you are not writing your own code and hitting the API I would say forget about it.
Report ProSniper March 31, 2020 11:32 PM BST
Good stuff Cardi..but don't forget to show us the race that's -£40.23..
Report Deplasterer March 31, 2020 11:36 PM BST
Yep, if you have a big enough bank, you could scale up cardinal Scott's data, say to 3-5 ticks a race, average £5 to £10 a race, but then you have to be wary of premium charge kicking in at some point.
Report Willie Shafter. March 31, 2020 11:47 PM BST
no swad..dont know anyone who takes notice of sectionals.
Report Davros April 1, 2020 12:32 AM BST
Assuming you already have some sort of edge to expand and scale up, the main question to ask is why?

-  Return?
-  Excitement?
-  Challenge?
-  Freedom?

I did it for a year and a half in a career break years ago back when the spreads were more competitive and easier.  It's not as enjoyable as one would expect - much of the problem being the anonymity of achievement.
Report ItsMeSwaddle April 1, 2020 12:13 PM BST

Apr 1, 2020 -- 12:47AM, Willie Shafter. wrote:


no swad..dont know anyone who takes notice of sectionals.


Ty,

Because its irrelevant?

Report ProSniper April 1, 2020 1:20 PM BST
Tell Jimmy Willoughby they're irrelevant..
Report ItsMeSwaddle April 1, 2020 1:23 PM BST
Im asking is it in your opinion? GrinDevil
Report Willie Shafter. April 1, 2020 1:29 PM BST
swad..
ive seen horses go off like scalded cats...most fade..odd ones hold on..
ive seen horses pull like a train..most fade..odd ones hold on
ive seen horses 30L behind..most stay there..odd ones take off and win

nothings set in stone..your eyes ir is the best tool.
Report ItsMeSwaddle April 1, 2020 1:44 PM BST
Ty
Report ProSniper April 1, 2020 1:46 PM BST
eyes + probability + discipline = success
Report foxy April 1, 2020 2:10 PM BST
I think your been pretty generous willie saying 2 in a100 pre race.
Report handtorofe April 1, 2020 2:23 PM BST
If you have been longing to do it since the Shergar days you have really missed the boat,there was
good money to be made 15 years back for quite a while but times change if you are a good judge
and have strong discipline you will do well to break even in my opinion over the year a pleasant way to pass the time if your retired,if your needing to make a living I would think again.
Report kevo April 1, 2020 2:26 PM BST
Just ask the aftertimer(s).
Report flushgordon1 April 1, 2020 2:28 PM BST
Bet more winners than losers.
Report Movewiththetimes April 1, 2020 2:31 PM BST
lay more losers than winners
Report richgit April 1, 2020 2:37 PM BST
---Davros said ----"its not as enjoyable as one might expect....much of the problem being the anonymity of achievement ".

---Could not agree more with that observation.
Report ItsMeSwaddle April 1, 2020 2:38 PM BST
Surely the achievement is not having to work a "proper job" - surely a big enough incentive to most.
Report richgit April 1, 2020 2:40 PM BST
----boasting on a forum,  or waving a winning betting slip around , does seem essential to some.
Report richgit April 1, 2020 2:43 PM BST
--I would have certainly fitted into that category.......sadly, I usually ended up having little to boast about !Sad
Report Levelsteakprophet April 1, 2020 2:47 PM BST
On the 6th Jan 2020 in General Betting under the Betting For a Living Thread (started by yourself) you posted :-


"I am thinking about packing it in. I can identify with a heck of a lot that Will Hoffmann detailed in his article the other day, a heck of a lot.

A new year dawns maybe it is time to admit defeat, I can pick winners like most people, better in fact than lots but if the balance sheet doesn't reflect that fact,then it doesn't matter."

As you were admitting defeat three months ago whats changed ?
Report Whippin Piccadilly April 1, 2020 2:49 PM BST
Swaddle is spot on IMO.
Report Rigsby April 1, 2020 2:51 PM BST
FWIW
IMO most of the stuff on social media platforms is selective and disingenious. Guys are selling something, usually software or data. Even with ladders trading software you need the brain to use it. I am not saying you don't, but I haven't. It freaks me out.
Furthermore, betting and laying on BF is not what it was.
Systems don't work - but that's another topic.
I used to do business plans for guys wanting to set up in business. One of the things was to divide expected net profit by hours worked (stress not included). A lot would have been better off on minimum wage.
It is possible not to lose on BF, but making a full time living, very very difficult
Report equine flew April 1, 2020 2:52 PM BST
If you go full time on here, I would recommend getting part time job in the real world  so you don't go completely skint
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 1, 2020 3:02 PM BST
---Davros said ----"its not as enjoyable as one might expect....much of the problem being the anonymity of achievement ".

That's a really good comment.

I do look back on the pre-Betfair days with fondness, because I found it so much easier going racing every day and taking on a few independently wealthy gamblers who happened to have bookmaker's joints. Now, I have to take on effectively the whole world, and I have no idea whether the face I'm betting against is a bored mug or the jockey's brother-in-law.

But the fact is that these days, one way or another, I can still make it pay on here, and without the horrendous expenses that hobbled us in those days. But all the great stories and memories still come from the days on-course, the shared coups, the landing of a gamble that left the rest of the world puzzled and loudly letting them know the fact.

E.g., the other day I laid a 1.05 shot in a photo that duly got beaten, and my reaction sitting here at home didn't even awaken the dog. Contrast that with watching Go Mary land the 1994 mares' final in the Newbury stands, and my father and I yelling and embracing each other for the only time in our lives after she'd held on at 33/1. And the thousands of others there looking on in bemused silence as they tore up their tickets.

There's nothing gracious about such behaviour, but how I miss it.
Report Whippin Piccadilly April 1, 2020 3:05 PM BST
You have to love what you do to make this game pay. I enjoy form reading and watching replays. Some see it as a chore (those who can't make it pay) others relish the work and get rewarded for it. You have to put the work in and not throw in the towel when things go against you....which they most certainly will from time to time!
Report foxy April 1, 2020 3:10 PM BST
There’s nothing wrong with such behaviour screaming not every time but the proper touches your entitled to a shout.
Report Willie Shafter. April 1, 2020 3:23 PM BST
yes your correct foxy..but when i say less i get lambasted Cool
Report Willie Shafter. April 1, 2020 3:25 PM BST
yes you're correct foxy..but when i say less i get lambasted Cool
Report foxy April 1, 2020 3:26 PM BST
I understand that willie

On another subject are you still in contact with hammy?
Report Davros April 1, 2020 3:39 PM BST
-screaming- I like the Go Mary story!

Itsmeswaddle:  "Surely the achievement is not having to work a "proper job" - surely a big enough incentive to most."

Perhaps for a minority - but how many professional sportsmen would be as good as they are if they only played behind closed doors?  If they were, how many would maintain the intensity required for a significant period of time?  To achieve your best and pull out all the stops in anything usually requires recognition in some shape or form.  Even successful people in the business world need the accountability of acknowledgement  (at least).  Very few people are built to be the mad scientist seeking knowledge in secret for knowledge's sake.

To the OP.  Betting psychology is extremely important.  Behavioural finance research into loss aversion tells us the average human has a 2:1 perceived gain to loss ratio.  This means a loss hurts twice as much as a win brings joy.  Think about that in the context of happiness when trying to make a living betting!  Personally, my ratio feels about 4:1 so any betting strategy I adopt must involve a high strike rate and I had to adapt my betting accordingly when doing it all the time.  As screaming implies in his post above - it is vital to consider not just what you do, but how you do it.  Ultimately it would make sense that this quality of life would be much higher clearing £15k a year with colleagues on track than £40k a year in a home office.  This is what made it unsustainable mentally for me.  Yet, to complicate matters, as a professional how can you possibly justify the high expenses of track attendance on a cost basis when the kids need new phones every year?
Report Willie Shafter. April 1, 2020 3:51 PM BST
no foxy..aint seen him since i left thornaby 11 yrs ago.
Report foxy April 1, 2020 4:08 PM BST
Ok willie I was just wandering if he was ok health wise.
Report G Hall April 1, 2020 5:00 PM BST
Thanks for all the replies guys,really appreciate all of them.
I can identify with the psychology aspect from last time,and that is certainly a factor. I am lucky enough that 15k a year will suffice, as I have a few other incomes.
Report seaside April 1, 2020 5:14 PM BST
screaming from beneaththewaves

Never saw him buy anyone a cup of tea all the years I went racing.

Hated to see anyone else win never once did he say well done if someone back a winner.

Could not face the fact that John the beard was a better punter than him and won more money.

If you want to know who I am I am the person who you screamed at when my horse beat yours at Fontwell what a way to carry on you owe me an apology for that day.
Report ekbalko April 1, 2020 5:40 PM BST
Saw Hammy at Donny a couple of years ago,seemed ok.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 1, 2020 6:09 PM BST
Seaside, if I'm ever able to work out who the hell you are, I promise I'll give you the price of a cup of tea one day.

I have never, ever been happy if someone else has backed the winner and I didn't. Never will be. It's simply not the attitude that's going to sustain anyone as a full-time pro.

I never understood how John the Beard made it pay betting the short ones; no more, I suspect, than he could understand how I made it pay backing the 100/1 shots. But it clearly worked for him - you don't stay in the game as long as he has without making it pay, however much or little you start with.

I have backed so many horses over the years that came second and got angry about it, that your Fontwell example really doesn't narrow the field down.
Report foxy April 1, 2020 6:09 PM BST
Thanks ekbalco I saw him at ponte I was referring more to the current situation.
Report Willie Shafter. April 1, 2020 8:15 PM BST
he's been posting on fb foxy so his fingers are healthy Cool
Report brassneck April 1, 2020 10:14 PM BST
this is a simple request from the opening poster.i will be glad to assist you in your goal but you must do  as i tell you.
1 =lodge £1000.
2= lay every football team you see that is priced odds on and playing away from home, for one year.
3= stand the team to lose £10.this will give you a profit of at least 18 to 20 grand.
4= use your football profits to do what you like on the horses.
5= if you win anything on the horses you will have a few quid at the end of the year.
6= Stand O.O.A.F.T.TO lose £20 each time the second year.
7= if you want a new car open an account in girl friends name  first year,if you want a new house open accounts in the children's name.dont bring attention to yourself laying to lose a £100 a time on a team or you will be stopped as your account will race up like a petrol pump clock.
8.if you find it difficult to get your bet on laying the O.O.A.F.T. Back the home team +1 goal with a bookie.
9.enjoy your new life,the system will take care of itself,but be careful with your horse bets.CoolBrass
Report dumplingheid April 2, 2020 11:17 AM BST
G hall. Its virtually impossible to make a full time living as you can see from all the so called professionals , they all have multiple jobs  along with being a full time punter,(columnist,writing books, radio presenter, online tipster, tv presenter, bot advertising, trading etc, etc, (Pick/choose any so called pros and you will see the list of other jobs they are paid for to fund there betting habit) No doubt there is a few characters on here that are doing the right things but most people will try and pull the wool over your eyes and tell you what they wish you to believe even to falsifying profit and loss data from betfair (see previous posts). My strong advice to you is
1. Do not bet or lay on horseracing as there are too many people that know more than you (owners,trainers, stable lad, farriers etc)the sport is corrupt from top to bottom.
2. Stick to what you know and excel in such sports you wish to participate in.(football,rugby etc)
3.What type of person are you? will it affect you if you are having a bad day? ie are you impulsive if your losing £1000 in one day and the next football team is evs would you have £1000 on to break even?
4. If you are impulsive you need a partner who will assist you in placing bets just incase you have the characteristics of going into full tilt mode.( many years ago i gave a guy on here that was prone to doing such a thing that piece of information and to this day he has had a good living from it).
5.You will go through many many bad beats and that is why stick to your tried and tested method try not to deviate, I lot of users use excel spread sheets just keep a note of your bets screen shot them so as you can look back.


thats only a tiny start some retards will try and character assinate me but hey ho if you can gleen 1 tiny piece of information from that , that can help you alls good.
Report G Hall April 2, 2020 6:33 PM BST
Many thanks again for all the replies, with some excellent suggestions. I would say that in the past the fear of losing, has hindered me,all psychology really.

The reality is there will be more losing bets than winning bets especially on horseracing so that has to be accepted,as a natural part of the game.
Report Cutter27 April 2, 2020 6:39 PM BST
Geraldine Hall, your chances are nill with such stats. First of all you're a woman.
Report G Hall April 2, 2020 6:40 PM BST
Report Cutter27 April 2, 2020 6:48 PM BST
Go away, Old Girl Geraldine Hall, as your chop trip to fame is as flat as Ireland where you peeped your head from.
Report big aitch April 2, 2020 6:51 PM BST
and another looney appears
Report Cutter27 April 2, 2020 6:53 PM BST
big aitch, you were a struggling multi bet player when you appeared to me, and I taught the silliness in how to bet. I'm glad you opted for the more expensive glow and blow up doll.
Report G Hall April 2, 2020 6:53 PM BST
Dumplingheid
Some great points there,point no 4 interestd me, how does that work in practice, ie how can working with someone else,prevent going on tilt.
Report Cutter27 April 2, 2020 6:55 PM BST

Apr 2, 2020 -- 7:53PM, G Hall wrote:


DumplingheidSome great points there,point no 4 interestd me, how does that work in practice, ie how can working with someone else,prevent going on tilt.


Women, of which you have very little charm, Geraldine, since you are one of those funny women, always love the manhood in me.

Report RothmanMike April 2, 2020 7:35 PM BST
Cardinal Scott, I notice that your bets are in US & Australia so given that , you have half a chance.
Also note , not greedy and disciplined.
I did that and built up from £2k to £25k, but it took many years.
Excelerated a lot, when retired and concentrated more.
Bon chance.
Report Cutter27 April 2, 2020 7:37 PM BST
Geraldine Hall, clearly put your **** away, as it aint working on her, darling.
Report G Hall April 2, 2020 9:06 PM BST
Scutter this was a civilised thread until you gate crashed it so take your clutter and do one.
Report leif April 2, 2020 10:46 PM BST
Cutter in an alcohol induced coma now G.

sends his regardsMischief
Report Cutter27 April 3, 2020 4:20 PM BST
Geraldine Hall and leafoverfanny, you really are two individuals deserving of some intelligence. Do you have partners? What do they think, or do they not possess the ability to think, being made of plastic, Chinese of course.
Report leif April 3, 2020 4:45 PM BST
Such a wit never has this forum witnessed.

Rock on Cutter.
Report Cutter27 April 3, 2020 4:50 PM BST
Cutter was King in the early days, my friend, when the likes of Warwick Hunt would come to compete, but would fall in flat race at Beverley over 5f.
Report G Hall April 3, 2020 9:20 PM BST
Thanks for your words of wisdom cutter, after your well thought out advice I have decided not to become a full time bettor,how can I ever thank you
Report Facts April 4, 2020 10:32 AM BST
G Hall    02 Apr 20 17:33 
Many thanks again for all the replies, with some excellent suggestions. I would say that in the past the fear of losing, has hindered me,all psychology really.

The reality is there will be more losing bets than winning bets especially on horseracing so that has to be accepted,as a natural part of the game.




Specialise in certain types of races . You mention Stewart Simpson. He bet only in Hcaps of 5- 7f , usually on turning , undulating tracks, with recent winning form and top or near the top of the weights.
You could do worse than looking at this, as it is relevant today !


Fear of losing, can be overcome as long as your stakes are a sensible proportion of your Racing Bank.( 1 - 2%)

Such a stake / bank would confortably  allow a losing run of say 20, without causing any concern.
Report Cutter27 April 4, 2020 3:27 PM BST
Ahh. The villains have done one. That was always the case with these cyber bullies.
Report MinnieLAI April 4, 2020 11:50 PM BST

Apr 3, 2020 -- 10:20PM, G Hall wrote:


Thanks for your words of wisdom cutter, after your well thought out advice I have decided not to become a full time bettor,how can I ever thank you


Wise decision, never put your cart on a donkey !! Have you ever considered automation as an alternative ...

Report MinnieLAI April 5, 2020 12:02 AM BST
Or indeed manual Trading, start with pre-race scalping, lot of fun.
Report leif April 5, 2020 12:07 AM BST
Scalping isn't  fun per se Happy
Report MinnieLAI April 5, 2020 12:35 AM BST
I do agree with you leif, not wishing to sound condescending but it's not for everyone.  But I do believe it's the general flight-path to trading, of which I haven't progressed, lol.  You may also know their are many scalping techniques, I have developed my own over the past two years which is now fully automated.
Report seaside April 9, 2020 11:19 AM BST
screaming from beneaththewaves

I am going to hold you to that if I ever see you at the races again which is unlikely as I never go racing now getting to old chasing all over the country.

You was one of the few people who did know what they were doing I must admit that.

Just ask Eddie who I am he will tell you.

Talking about backing seconds I remember one day at Chepstow you back a horse to win five large and you said to me hope the winner fails to weigh in.
Report moonaxed April 9, 2020 6:23 PM BST
Facts.  A losing run of 20 suggests that the system you are running needs a good look,its the confidence factor equalling betting scared that would get you.If i backed 7 losrrs consecutively i would be working extra hard to identify the cause..if a couple just got touched off i would have traded to profit in any case but 7 losers without any return is rare...i can only recall one such sequence in 6 years and i then had  a 55winner**(16/1 sp) but i was ready to do a big overhaul it just so happened ghe 55 winner was the 2nd of 3 bets on the day but i was fully aware of 7 untraded losing bets which actually was 13 out of 14 as i usually back in 4TBP MARKET TOO
Report ItsMeSwaddle April 9, 2020 6:28 PM BST
No problems with losing 7 in a row if your backing at prices.
Report moonaxed April 9, 2020 6:31 PM BST
I am backing at prices..as i said,its the headspace that suffers,even if the bank can take it
Report tanglefoot April 9, 2020 6:41 PM BST
As a pre-race backer,I break up a racing day in afternoon and evening sessions,keeping each session down to two bets,Max 2 points a bet,with a max total per session 3 points.
Obviously there are other good methods eg in running especially if u have an edge.
Report ProSniper April 10, 2020 9:44 AM BST
"I am backing at prices..as i said,its the headspace that suffers"

And what causes that is

a) impatience.
b) wavering belief in M.O.

Whatever form of gambling you practice in, you must strive to master self-control. A control that will only come when a) one understands/appreciates and fully accepts the harsh realities of variance. b) one has a wanting will (to stick to the process) that carries greater strength than any impulse that prompts actions that can only ever result in longterm damage/failure.

And btw Hally, for anyone considering gambling for a living(or just going FT for some xtra monies in addition to other income sauces) I'd never advise straight punting over trading. Understand if you're the driver of a hoss outfit..or even closely connected to any, you can cheat your way into big monies with great ease. Straight punting with big sums is the only way to go in that case. But if you're a complete outsider, you've chosen the toughest form of gambling to make anything substantial.

The simple fact is that straight punting can't offer neither the flexibility nor the amount of ops that trading throws up. Additionally the latter will also reward you with a much smoother equity curve..as opposed to the turbulent, jagged rollercoaster that comes with straight punting(-exlusive info)
Report G Hall April 11, 2020 8:04 AM BST
Some very good posts, really appreciate them.
Report Joe Lampton April 11, 2020 10:41 AM BST
Thing is think a lot on here have likely served their apprentiship. Looking back I was clueless between my teens and early twenties but it definitley helped. As beens said on here you have to have a niche and there's no sustitute for experience. Pre betfair it was easier and I've still got the records of bets from then when I was making about 8-9% per year. You'd spend hours going through the form and you could get on early. Hardly rare to get 5/2 - 11/4 something that'd go off 11/8. Almost imposible to do this now and what I bet on has changed a lot. Never even look at handicaps - what's the point you won't get on anyway! Make around 3% now and only bet in the 10/15 mins before off both on here and off course. You'd be looking to get 11/8-5/4 a 6/5-11/10 shot. You have to be able to read the market. Still make it pay now but miles harder and make nothing like I was 20 years ago. You'd got to be reailistic in how much you'll make - it's a job and there's no magic formula.
Report ericster April 11, 2020 11:39 AM BST

Apr 10, 2020 -- 10:44AM, ProSniper wrote:


"I am backing at prices..as i said,its the headspace that suffers"And what causes that is a) impatience. b) wavering belief in M.O.Whatever form of gambling you practice in, you must strive to master self-control. A control that will only come when a) one understands/appreciates and fully accepts the harsh realities of variance. b) one has a wanting will (to stick to the process) that carries greater strength than any impulse that prompts actions that can only ever result in longterm damage/failure. And btw Hally, for anyone considering gambling for a living(or just going FT for some xtra monies in addition to other income sauces) I'd never advise straight punting over trading. Understand if you're the driver of a hoss outfit..or even closely connected to any, you can cheat your way into big monies with great ease. Straight punting with big sums is the only way to go in that case. But if you're a complete outsider, you've chosen the toughest form of gambling to make anything substantial. The simple fact is that straight punting can't offer neither the flexibility nor the amount of ops that trading throws up. Additionally the latter will also reward you with a much smoother equity curve..as opposed to the turbulent, jagged rollercoaster that comes with straight punting(-exlusive info)


Good post Sniper. Appreciated. Still evolving here and it can get a bit bumpy but I try.

Report 37+73 April 11, 2020 2:37 PM BST
some good advice here G av ...give it a go and get together with any useful contacts you have in Horse racing, as that is vital.I`m sure you are aware of the pitfalls, but it`s really like any other job within reason......know your stuff......I wish you all the best
Report ProSniper April 12, 2020 4:33 AM BST
BAMOS eri! Trying is excellent..but doing is everything. If you've followed your plan, not made any of the usual foolish mistakes, stuck to your process(irrespective of results/patterns) then even if you end up losing money during that specific test/venture..you'll have built more strength on your psychology. Having enough strength there is paramount to becoming stable. Too weak/fragile and we're ripe to keep repeating the same silly mistakes we should have shed a long time ago.

When you break it down to its simplest, the only formula there is to winning> edge + process + time. So what it boils down to is, once you've found an edge, do you have the discipline(that required will) to follow the necessary process and allow time to work its magic? MOST don't. That's why there's only a small % of longterm winners. Following certain rules under certain circumstances is clearly challenging. And this only goes to highlight the deficiency of the default mindset. It needs fine-tuned/rewired to become optimal for gambling.

The best gambler eye know also happened to have the best starting position; laid-back attitude with a thirst to learn. About a decade ago he decided to dedicate all his time to living in the markets. He wasn't scared of losing because he was fully expecting to. Not only that, he was more than prepared to try all sorts of weird stuff and burn money in the markets whenever an idea came to mind(no matter how silly) knowing he'd at least always get an answer to whatever he did..

After months and months of living in them..day after day, night after night(inevitably losing money overall but crucially accumulating vast experience..) he eventually gained an overall winning consistency that's never left him to this day. When you watch these type of people operating(getting paid again and again) it's easy to forget you're just seeing the finished product of what took crazy amounts of dedication to build..

And while one could easily be forgiven for thinking these type of winners are only accepting risk so nonchalantly because they know what is certain to happen, the simple fact is they've just become comfortable in dealing with certain uncertainty. They understand the game is nothing more than pouncing on every 'Probability of outcome is greater than x'



Q: What's stopping you going from 1 and getting to 4?
Report leif April 12, 2020 9:28 AM BST
Recognising, and reacting when an 'edge' has gone.

Realising why the edge has gone?

So many factors in the way of getting from step 1 to step 4 snipey?
Report Richie_Burnett April 12, 2020 10:13 AM BST
#1 sounds most like meCry
Report ProSniper April 13, 2020 5:51 AM BST
The Y is obvious leify. Recognising will be when there's significant change in results..out of line with expectation and anything previous data shows. Experience&passion for the game should've led you into more avenues than solely relying on a 1-dimensional cistern that will leave you "stuck" if and when it levels off..
Report ericster April 13, 2020 10:00 AM BST
BAMOS Confused
Report PeteTheBloke April 13, 2020 10:09 AM BST
I'd say pick your horses, put your bets on and then go and enjoy life. If it works, carry on,
if it doesn't, get a job again.

The point is, sitting on Betfair for hours on end is not fun and it's not leisure.
Report G Hall April 13, 2020 10:21 AM BST
The break in racing has come at a strange time for me in regard to this, I had been almost ready to go. It has given me time to think more about it, and also some great suggestions on this forum.
I have gone through a lot of my records and previous strategies and it has been time well spent. As I stated before the psychology of it has been the biggest stumbling block. I like most being brought up in the need to get a "proper " job,and conditioned to work in a conventional manner ie for someone else.
Report 11kv April 13, 2020 10:24 AM BST
Depending what work you were doing the life of a full timer can be very lonely and at times mundane even if winning.............
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 13, 2020 10:38 AM BST
Deciding whether an edge has gone is the single hardest decision a propunter ever has to make. Ultimately it's one thing which makes or breaks you.

It doesn't matter how many decades of betting records you have behind you. There is still literally no limit to how long a run of random bad results can continue.

Anyone who blithely claims it'll be "obvious" when it's happened simply hasn't been been punting full-time for enough years.
Report ericster April 13, 2020 11:26 AM BST

Apr 13, 2020 -- 11:09AM, PeteTheBloke wrote:


I'd say pick your horses, put your bets on and then go and enjoy life. If it works, carry on,if it doesn't, get a job again.The point is, sitting on Betfair for hours on end is not fun and it's not leisure.


Pete, I totally agree with what you say about sitting on betfair for hours on end not being fun, or leisure.

I switch on, log-in, scan the inplay coupon, such that it is, looking for particular mkt-situations. If there's nothing for me I'm happy to log-out. Unlike Mr.Hall, I'd be happy to sit on a profit-making-strategy, and play once or twice a month or whenever an opportunity presents itself. I've been taking an interest in certain matches in the last few days because I had an idea, something caught my eye but I don't think it's going anywhere. I would like to think that I'm getting a feel for the mkts that I get involved with and the only way, I think, is to have a small interest. You lose you learn.

Report RothmanMike April 13, 2020 5:53 PM BST
Not boring or lonely on Betfair, if you get in your car, kick on to the races with your Ipad
and beat the racecourse books.
Have a nice day out and cover your exs courtesy of Betfair.
Report ProSniper April 14, 2020 10:08 AM BST
tbf screamy, I obv never meant to suggest it was "easy" to establish whether edge has gone. But at the same time, if you've deemed an edge worthy of pursuing, how strong was your signal to begin with? There should be a calculation that draws conclusion either way. 

In any case the constant need for such vigilance only further demonstrates why we should be ever so humble while participating in this game. Arena where an edge can easily be showing a loss after hundreds of bets(trailing for days, weeks or even months at a time) is obviously not to be taken lightly.
The randomness of it all is completely out of our control. What we are in control of is how we play, how much, and @ what odds..which at least controls deviation levels we're comfortable with.

Ultimately, when it comes to GAMBLING, we can never escape the 'GAMBLE'. Losing remains possible. But as long as one's risk remains managed, W-L-D, time spent gambling is unequalled. If not for you, find something else.

I completely agree with all the above who wrote about the downsides. Personalities differ greatly,,,,, so even if ALL of them mastered the required discipline and were making solid progress with their gambling ventures, there would still be many who were left completely dissatisfied. If you have a genuine passion for something..it's still a breeze to come through whatever parts of it you don't enjoy. In anything where personal enjoyment doesn't significantly outweigh any downside..you shouldn't be wasting your time on it.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 14, 2020 2:33 PM BST
ProSniper:

tbf screamy, I obv never meant to suggest it was "easy" to establish whether edge has gone. But at the same time, if you've deemed an edge worthy of pursuing, how strong was your signal to begin with? There should be a calculation that draws conclusion either way.

That's a good point. When I started out, did I calculate what the worse was that could happen? The rule of thumb is usually to go back through your records, look for the worst losing run, then double it and budget for that. The thinking being that if the worst happens, you can still start again, still prepared for the worst.

The problem with that is that when you have absorbed a losing run equal to the worst in your historical record, there is absolutely no guarantee that the next bet is going to win. What do you do when the next bet loses, and the one after that, and the one after that? Suddenly your worst possible losing run has got bigger, and the resources left to overcome it become proportionately smaller. You're suddenly staring down the barrel of doubt.

Instead of having lost 20 grand, with 20 grand still in your bank, you've lost, say, 23 grand, with just 17 left. It's feeling a lot less comfortable now, isn't it?. Has something genuinely changed and you really have lost your edge? After all, you've exceeded what you'd calculated should be the worst that could happen if your edge is genuine. Or, is this simply a new sequence, starting from scratch, and you have to see it out to the bitter end? Even though the bitter end really would be the end, with the loss of everything you'd gained while your edge really did work.

I tell you, after 29 years doing this full-time, sleepless nights like the one I've described above can wreck the most confident and well-researched strategy.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 14, 2020 2:42 PM BST
Sheer luck plays a huge role. Simply being fortunate to start at a point where there's a winning sequence rather than a losing one. I posted this on a similar thread a while back:

I remember when I went full-time for the second time, in November 1990. I was going only to have value bets, whether or not I thought the horse was the likeliest winner. I calculated that if I wanted to cover the expenses of going racing every day, paying for food and rent, and giving myself a chance of doing more than just survive, I was going to have to bet to level stakes of around £60, whether the horse was evens or 100/1, and I was going to need a bank of £10,000 to do that.

I had just under £3,000 in the world.

What I did was bet as though I really did have £10,000. I had to find out if I could do it.

In retrospect, I was extraordinarily lucky. Day one, I went to Newbury and my first bet was a £500 to £35 each way the Queen Mother's Furry Knowe, and it held on all out by half a length. I ended the day £800 up, and by the end of the season I'd won £13,000, minus three grand expenses. And I upped my stakes to £100, and I'm still here.

BUT ... there was a period in early spring 1991 where I did about £6,000 in two months. If that had occurred a few weeks earlier, I would have been cleaned out. Long-term, I would never have recovered. I would have knocked value-betting on the head, having had my life shattered by it, and I would have spent the last thirty years as a cautious, sensible punter, and lost thousands in the process.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 14, 2020 2:45 PM BST
Something else I wrote on that thread:

Once you've made mistake after mistake for years on end, and you look back at your records and you now reckon you know what you have to do, then that's the time to go big. If you're as sure as you can be that, given luck, you can do it, then do it properly. It could be your one shot in life, the way the game changes so rapidly.

But going big straight off, with no experience, and no records to consult, is plain daft. To be honest, anyone who does that is going to get cleaned out some other way, even if they don't gamble.

More than that, it's just so much easier to turn some sort of profit if you bet really small. There's no shame in only laying a few pennies at 5.6 and 5.8 rather than a lump at 6.0. That's your profit margin, right there.

And one of the few good things about Betfair and online books is that you no longer have to pay horrendous expenses to go on-course and bet tax-free and get the best prices. And, as a consequence, no one need know that you're fiddling in pennies. That's a secret between yourself and a small profit at the end of the year.
Report ProSniper April 14, 2020 8:36 PM BST
You just told a story of over betting(relative to bank size)

Betting with stakes from mythical bank is never a good idea. If you're betting with genuine edge, only poor money management and/or wrong edge calc can see you go bust. Any cistern that "could have went bust" within a couple of months is clearly unsound on at least 1 of the above..
Report RothmanMike April 14, 2020 8:43 PM BST
And never borrow to initially finance your project.
Better to start with small Bank, and learn the lessons whilst trying to build a workable bank.
Report screaming from beneaththewaves April 14, 2020 10:20 PM BST
I did say I was extraordinarily lucky. I started with a £3,000 bank and bet as though it were £10,000 and got away with it by a quirk of fate. A few weeks later and I wouldn't have. I certainly wasn't recommending it as the way to go. At the time I was still in my twenties, had no responsibilities to anyone else, and couldn't face wasting any more of the best years of my life sitting in an office from 9 to 5. I felt I had nothing to lose. I had to find out whether I could do it. I couldn't go on for another 40 years never earning enough to get a proper bank together, before retiring and dying wondering

If that £6,000 losing run had turned up when I began, and I'd lost my bank (and probably gone and borrowed more), I would have felt very different. I had plenty to lose, and I don't think I would ever have had the nerve to try again. I'd have been screwed unto this day.

Extraordinarily lucky.

But the real lesson came in 1993-4. For over three years I'd been operating full-time. That initial calculation that a £10,000 bank would see me through the worst possible run seemed to have stood the test of time.

Then, at the start of the 1993-4 NH season, I managed to lose £27,000 in 6 months. This was the first time I faced the dreadful decision of having to decide whether a method that by that time had won me about £100,000 had suddenly become redundant. Why should it? I mean. I was still over £70,000 up before expenses. So why stop? Why stop doing something that was, in the big picture, winning me incredible sums? But what if I ended up giving it all back? Horrible. Your judgement goes out of the window. Things get worse from day to day. Am I still doing the right things? Maybe I'm doing the wrong things and the method's still good and credible? In the end the Christmas break came and there was a chance to get off the hamster wheel for a few days and try to think clearly again.

I remember spending Christmas Day alone and surrounded by the handwritten records of 3 years of bets and 3 years of paper form books simply having to find a way of stopping the rot. It meant going back over race after race, looking for criteria that meant I could price them up differently in a way that shook out a few bad losers and found a few obvious winners. It was the time when Veitch and the Winning Line were in their pomp, and I found that the latter had quite rightly been concentrating on young jumpers with scope, as it's these horses which actually accelerate on the run-in and win, while the older horses, the "value bets", with maybe 7lb in hand and and at triple the price, just plod on into unlucky second places.

I adjusted my tissue accordingly and set off to Wincanton on Boxing day with a spring in my step. I transferred the £27,000 negative figure to a "bad bank", as it were, and started the season afresh, and by Stratford in June had won back the £27,000, with £6,000 on top, which meant that after all that work I finished the year level after expenses.

It is not an easy game.

The big lesson? Keep records of all your bets. Those ledgers and notebooks are gold dust. You can't buy information like that.
Report G Hall April 14, 2020 10:47 PM BST
Great write up absolutely insightful, and I have nothing but admiration for the way you have made the game pay.
Report ProSniper April 15, 2020 6:43 AM BST
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