USA horse racing odds

You are correct - It IS, "a bit amateurish"

They have something called 'The Morning Line' - which is just the same as our 'Betting Forecast'.

It is ALL completely ARTIFICIAL - and entirely unrepresentative of any rationale.

Take NO NOTICE of their carp shows.

First of all you are comparing odds of a Tote System with an exchange and as for going off too fast that is probably because you have become used to a 6 furlong crawl with jockeys desperately trying to restrain hard pullers followed by a 2f sprint.

Correct, Sparrow. Here, in a typical 6furlong race, they go, in 2 furlong sectionals, slow, slow, faster. In the US they race! Fast, fast, slower.

As for the Tote, just like here, the pools are small and therefore volatile until it gets close to race time. The Morning lines are made up by

the local track handicapper and are usually a darn sight more accurate than here, at the bigger tracks at least.

Our early shows are made by bookmakers with a vested interest but the Tote has no such an interest, it's takeout is the same no matter what.

US form is presented in such a way that it is possible to predict far more accurately than here the running styles of each runner. Also sectional

timing, combined with class assessment, can help determine which horse might get a soft lead or which horse might get the better of a speed dual,

or identify which horses might benefit from that dual. In the UK it is virtually impossible to know what trainers have decided to do on the day

and we often see horses that have front run before being held up pulling for their heads etc.

The most efficient way for any athlete to run is at a pace that is fast enough but not so fast that they will tie up more than the competition

in the last section. Horses pulling waste energy. Horses being held up behind a slow pace are rarely going to run their best time.

Speed is dangerous. Lone speed is deadly!

My recommendation would be to see if you can access some US form, such as Daily Racing Form or Brisnet or Equibase and take some time to

study and learn.

Good luck!

Also remember that some horses are 'coupled' on the US betting, i.e. a bet on horse 1 will also pay out if horses 1A wins. This can lead to an outsider having very short odds. But on Betfair, the horses are never coupled and so the odds will just reflect the chances of that one runner.

avoid it like the plague..gambling is for mugs.

you'll be wading into the Swedish stuff later instead then?

The only track I win at is Del Mar...so no big bets till their meeting starts.

So it’s something to take onboard ie so many tracks to choose from...don’t be a slave to only what’s on right now.

Have a go and see what suits you best...who knows...maybe the late night stuff at Charles town and Penn might be your new bread and butter.

gambling (without an edge)is for mugs.

FACT

I tend to use a method based on the exacta prices but you need to watch Bf Lv which still has the live stream,Sky/ATr now no use to me.
sparrow is right about it being GB where they crawl and the US where generally,certainly on dirt,they don't often turn races into a sprint over the  last furlong.

Salmon and others, as far as AW racing is concerned and where the data is available, there is utterly no evidence that in the UK they always sprint the last furlong.  Yes that happens some of the time, but more often the last furlong is the slowest.

https://www.attheraces.com/racecard/Southwell/13-March-2020/1800/sectional-times

you can work through this card and then the lingfield of the same day, very few races have a fast last furlong.

Willie Shafter. Joined: 15 Jul 04
Replies: 3510319 Mar 20 10:23 
'gambling (without an edge) is for mugs.'


a well-worn cliche, and like all cliches, should be avoided like the plague. i know several people who play at home off rtv i/r and have done for years. they dont have an edge. they are at a disadvantage. and not mugs. unless you mean it as a catch-all term encompassing fast pics, feeds, knowledge, reading a race, times, including i/r timing, and all the other tedious stuff horse racing produces. but i take it to mean an advantage not based on understanding, and merely a visual/technological aid, as, i suspect, do you

I believe in using my eyesight dave     

I just made a quid in running at turf, things are looking up

you cant play ir in s.a. since flash went. the pics are at least 6 seconds slower. i used to, and had a few results laying when something didnt get out, as the bf suspend was sometimes a bit tardy. also, you could have a go i/r when the weather was a bit tasty, as it often is in sa. sadly, what would have been a handy substitute has been taken away for reasons i dont understand. all talk of techy bollox makes me yawn. as do 100% of people who are interested in it. it is a necessity nowadays, but by jove tech-types are boring.

thanks, no one had noticed

dave, you rarely ever see horses pulling like mad behind the pace in America. Only at Southwell do they run at a proper pace.

happy to help. but the biggest calamity, and one nobody has mention since its demise was the effect flash ending had on the frog ir. it was bonkers. the bf sportsbook would allow you to watch the french racing but the exchange wouldnt so you if you bet £1 on the sportsbook you could use its lv to play ir on the exchange. big deal you might say, but the lv on sportsbook was 6-12 seconds in front of the exchange. incredible. i managed to get by on this for 18 months with the help of some outrageous flukes, like short-priced jollies not starting or capsizing at the first . and betting on 5 furlong races with a big time-lag was massive.

nobody ever mentioned it, except bootman, but even after that it didnt seem to make much difference. amazed more people didnt take advantage of it if an clueless mug like me could

^^
sparrow I don't disagree with that, just that the crawl crawl sprint hypothesis isn't supported by times.  I think that US trainers are very possibly better at getting horses to understand and settle into their optimal speed over a given distance.  This might be easier when the vast majority of races are less than a mile.

I thought most a/w races here were a mile or under. Quite a lot of US races are 8/9f. It's anything longer that is rare on dirt.

yes I should have said say a mile or less.  In any case my main point is whether us trainers are better at getting horses to settle into their optimal speed than uk trainers.  Could racecourse workouts help this?

Might be that,but the races at Southwell are visually not dissimilar to US dirt tacing. I rather assume Fibresand,which is made in Mansfield and,I think,unique to Southwell rides very much the same as dirt,whereas the much more common Tapeta and Polytrack don't.

Hmmm....I wonder what the liquidity would be like for the quarter horse racing....that would be like crack for some on here imo

There was a 100yds (sic) race at Turf Paradise just before Xmas. Pretty certain that went i/r. I didn't paricipate.

Emailed ATR on 1st March 2020, reply from Enzo:

Hi Mike

Bookmaker prices are compiled in a similar way to the shows from UK tracks , there is a couple of people representing the bookmakers
who assemble the shows using the tote prices and what the bookmakers report money for,  they then send the shows for each race but
only start about ten mins before the off, some firms will have their own boost prices and early prices.

Regards

Anthony Ennis

I haven't really studied this but my impression is that these ISPs are often a long way off the Tote prices on course. One of the reasons I've stopped trying to bet watching ATR Stateside.

I use the ATR website Morning Line prices available from early morning,in conjunction with the current odds
displayed in the studio when showing live coverage ,and the Betfair Live video which show prevailing odds on track.
Does it for me.