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Andrew.in.Sweden
01 Jan 20 09:29
Joined:
Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 2,668 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys and Girls, Happy New Year 2020 to you all. Happy

Regular readers will be fully aware of my previous 3 lay threads, the first one on a daily basis, the latter 2 on random days simply due to work commitments. They created far more interest than i could have envisaged when i started the first one back in late April 2018 and eventually not only became a platform where lovers of horse racing could debate varying topics (thank you to some decent posters) but also football (i try not to mention Bristol City FC too much) weather forecasts, travel monologues and even bread pudding recipes courtesy of the forums very own Gordon Ramsey, Happysandwich, although having met the latter i can assure everyone he swears less. Wink

Not only did i get to meet Happysandwich, but several others, including a well known bookmaker (Ed Thompson) on a couple of occasions, who i can assure you is more amenable than Barry Dennis, not that i have anything at all against the latter other than i thought i was making a short term loan to him in the shape of Air Force Blue in the 2016 2000 Guineas. I think he's approaching the final furlong as i type these words (the horse not Barry, although i feel the latter was actually faster).

The 3 threads have all been profitable (full breakdown at the end of this post) with an overall gain of almost £2200, although i was very disappointed with the last one. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why i consider this one almost a failure, but it would be pointless, I make the selections, post a reasoning that i consider valid at the time, match the bet and that's it. Thinking back "why did i lay that one" is again pointless, everything is clearer with hindsight as we all know and experience. Never mind, i will not dwell on it, i know for a fact several readers profited, and 3 of them to significant amounts.

One thing i did differently on the last thread was not to select a single 2 year old (as an experiment) and i feel this was wrong, so this time this exclusion will not be in place.

Conditions of the lay will be exactly the same as before, only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 (circa 3.75 on here) or under (at time of posting) and matched on here to win a level stake of £50 each time. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post and I will also provide reasoning for the lay.

For complete transparency i will post the record status and running P/L, exactly as before, but i will do away with the smiley/sad faces and revert to the table format that takes less time to create.

Note the lays will be posted on random days (as the last two threads) this is simply due to work commitments and freedom of time that i may not have the luxury of on a daily basis, even though i'm currently on a 'semi-leave' of absence until Friday 10th (my daughter spending time with me).

As before, anyone is welcome to post, banter is welcomed and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. Of course, we have all seen from the last thread there are those that have no interest in the game, or anything constructive to say, preferring to act as childish trolls, but this is sadly a reflection of social media society we know today. I've blocked 2 of them already, something i should have done a long time ago and i sense the other (kemo, who i suspect is the same poster anyway) will soon join them, he would not be missed by me at all and i sense most on here would agree.

The ultimate goal is obviously to make a profit, but from a personal perspective i have two goals, the first to improve my best success rate of 83% (55/66, including the initial 14/14) as i feel i made a few poor choices then, although i honestly have doubts of achieving this. The other is to better 18/19 (i did this twice) but again it will be difficult. The magic 20 in a row is a figure mentioned on here often, but although not impossible, i think it almost is.

Good luck all and have a wonderful New Years Day.

Lay thread record.

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (various months)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level max stake £50 per day (after commission). To be confirmed.

Link to a spreadsheet outlining many details of the last thread, many thanks to Bitbybit for taking the effort to create it. Striding Edge also did the same on the 2nd thread (again thanks).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WHfaou2KbsZWqMTpWGDiJY5T_kikH1r4V-p7_lsqMe4/edit#gid=499794971
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Report FELTFAIR September 13, 2020 11:43 AM BST
GrinGrin
Report GLASGOWCALLING September 13, 2020 2:36 PM BST
Well done on overcoming an impressive Stat on the Tennis Andrew ( the winner of the first set has gone on to win the

final for the past 25 yrs ) !! ShockedWink
Report happysandwich September 13, 2020 9:33 PM BST
I haven’t bet on the tennis but Dominic Thiem is now 1.75 from 1.24 before the start of the match.

Go to tennis on the Exchange and click on live feed to watch.
Report happysandwich September 14, 2020 9:52 AM BST
I watched most of the match and twice Thiem drifted out to 4.8 to win, especially when he had lost the first 2 sets. 6-3 6-3.

If you had bet £100 @ 1.24  to win £24 you obviously collect, but how could you have made a profit if you had Layed Thiem to lose before the match?

Having risked only £24 to win £100 and lost if you had let it ride.

I would imagine cash out when it showed £50 green?

This is only hypothetical.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 14, 2020 10:32 AM BST
Good morning Guys

Glasgow

Thanks, but i think the WD should be for Naomi who did well to not only come back from a set down, but 2-0 (and 40-30) in the second set. It could have gone the other way if she hadn't won that game. I doubt she will play in Rome or the French Open and the latter wouldn't suit her game anyway, but she could be worth a bet for the Australian in January.

Happysandwich

If you had layed Theim at the start (1.24) you could have made a profit directly after the first set and an even larger one after the 2nd. You simply back Thiem to go Green. Never use cash out, unless you want to give BF some of your profit.

It must have been an exciting game to watch.
Report Lucky Luciano September 14, 2020 1:39 PM BST
Afternoon Andrew
Thanks re Wichita, had a decent bet and was much need after a bad run, so much so if he was the previous Saturday I’m convinced I t would have beaten in a photo.
Happy
After timing here but CAFC were a good bet Saturday
We were relegated last day, Crewe were promoted so 2 division diff
No crowd so home advantage nullified
They hadn’t played since March unlike us
Did I bet,,,,,,,of course not Sad
Ps your old player bonne will do well in this league. Mid table is probably best we can hope for with all the shannanigans  off the pitch
Report Lucky Luciano September 14, 2020 1:43 PM BST
Just read that back looks like I’ve been drinking, which I haven’t
in the office today so busy
Report happysandwich September 14, 2020 2:42 PM BST
^^^^
Cheers Lucky and good health. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 14, 2020 3:39 PM BST
Happy

If you want to trade for a bit of fun (small stakes) try the cricket T20 blast (20 overs). There are several matches this week including this afternoon/evening. No draw.

The odds fluctuate a lot. In the 50 overs game between England and Australia, both teams hit 1.06.
Report happysandwich September 14, 2020 4:19 PM BST
How I got talked into this I don’t.
It's 24c in the garden and I'm not sitting in front all afternoon.Laugh

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Kent
1.08
£10.00
£0.80
Ref: 211158674394 Submitted: 16:16 14-Sep-20
Report happysandwich September 14, 2020 4:20 PM BST
^^^^
of a computer
Report happysandwich September 14, 2020 4:33 PM BST
Andrew,

Hampshire are now 230/1 how do I trade out?
The screen is £0.58p green and you said not to use the trade button and risk giving Betfair a portion of my winnings.

I'm only joking - I'll let it ride and hope they don't get a young lady flasher on the pitch. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 16, 2020 12:29 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys

Happysandwich

When I said trading for fun, i didn’t expect you to go all in @ 1.08, but well done on the profit. How much is a newspaper in UK these days ? WinkLaugh

What I meant by trading on the T20 blast cricket was backing one team and laying off if they went odds on as the odds fluctuate a lot. From the 2 games last night, in one of them both teams went 1.10, and in the other both went 1.20, so you would have made a profit whichever of the 4 you backed. Mind you it’s not always that easy of course.

I’m not going to start putting up cricket teams, but England play Australia in the T50 test today. If you want a bit of fun, back Australia pre match, in my opinion they are under-priced. Hopefully they will look like the winning team at some stage and go odds on, say 1.6 for example.

On a different note, make sure you don’t forget your Lucky Pins team nap selection this week, anytime between now and Saturday night. We need a good one, at least a winner as we are 2 selections down without points so far, but no pressure. Wink

I’m not after timing, but i had a lay selection yesterday (mentioned to Bitbybit on WhatsApp) but no time to type a reasoning and when i had it was 4.20 from 3.30. Finished unplaced at 11/4. Maybe I have one at Kelso later.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all (26c here)
Report happysandwich September 16, 2020 1:28 PM BST
Andrew,

I typed this out about an hour ago and wondered whether I should post it or not.

“I’m not trying to influence anyone into having a Lay bet today but Fresh New Dawn @ 3.6 in the Kelso 6:40 is having a problem standing up over the jumps.”



God knows what I’ve done here, it’s £1.58p in the red already.
Think I’ll just get back in the garden and just leave it to our friends down under.

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Australia
1.55
£10.00
£5.50
Ref: 211302267510 Submitted: 13:03 16-Sep-20
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 16, 2020 1:36 PM BST
Happy,

Did you back Australia pre-match ? I backed them last night at 2.20.

Pointless trading from 1.55, so i would leave the bet to run it's course. If England win i will give you the tenner next time we meet up Laugh

Enjoy your time in the garden, all right for some.
Report happysandwich September 16, 2020 2:31 PM BST
Andrew,

How could I back them last night?

As soon as I got the ‘word’ at 12:29 I lumped the tenner on and kissed it goodbye. Laugh

England are 97/4 (19.2) at the moment and I’m only 17p in the red.

Don’t worry it’s only a bit of fun.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 16, 2020 3:19 PM BST
Happy

Laugh

I didn't mean last night, i meant pre-match, but i wasn't aware Australia were short when you placed the bet, more so after 2.2 that i got (i think England were something like 1.88). I know the odds flucuate a lot but that's some flip-flop pre-match.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 16, 2020 3:55 PM BST
Hi Guys

My proposed lay selection i mentioned earlier was C'est Le Bonheur, but there are now 2 x NR's and significant ones as well so i will leave it due to the increased risk. For those that are interested the reasoning typed at lunchtime is below.

Kelso 4.10 - C‘est Le Bonheur

A 8 year old Laveron gelding trained by Dr Richard Newland in Clains, Worcestershire.

French Dam has 5 offspring, 2 of them winners for Willie Mullins (most on soft/heavy going).

Winner of a P2P (from 2) in 2018. Clearly had issues since with 2 breaks between races, one of 240 days, the other 670 days.

Won his penultimate race, a 17f bumper at Sedgefield in October 2018. The field didn’t have a great deal of depth with the runner-up still a maiden after 14 subsequent races. The 3rd has won since (3 times in fact) a minor maiden directly after the defeat and 2 handicap hurdles thereafter, but has regressed since and is currently rated 102.

Ran on hurdles debut over 20f at Perth LTO, but fell at the 2nd last. Jumped poorly up to that point so no surprise and he was 8L down at the time of falling. The winner was in complete control at the time, even with giving away 14 lb to the faller and would probably have won by at least 10L had the runner-up not departed. Once again there wasn’t a lot in the race, the betting suggested it only concerned 3, including the favourite who won. There were 14 runners, but only 10 finishers and most of them tailed off, especially the last 4 who were priced up in triple digit odds.

The winner ran off a mark of 122 so assuming the envisaged winning distance and weight (14 lb) received, i would give him a mark of around 98.

11 runners this afternoon and although some dead wood, there’s still enough running for the layers, including the probable favourite Rubytwo and several others lightly raced.

He also has another furlong to travel although this shouldn’t be an issue.

I don’t see his form is any better than those with a winning chance and yet his short odds do not reflect this.

The risk is he will improve and the trainer/jockey combination are both in form, although he has to brush up his jumping big time to have a hand in the finish. 

Lay @ 2.XX
Report happysandwich September 16, 2020 4:23 PM BST
Thanks Andrew,

Exciting race and I thought we were going to come unstuck with 3 to jump, I took 3.40 to win £50

Appreciate the help.

Come on you Aussies !!!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 16, 2020 4:34 PM BST
WD Happy, i didn't lay it myself, so you owe me £25 Laugh

Seriously, chuffed you layed it and i'll be happy if the Aussies win. If not i'll ask my daughter in Adelaide to have a whip round.
Report happysandwich September 16, 2020 6:03 PM BST
Think I’m losing it Sad

Me and my wife watched the race live and hi-fived after they went over the line.

When I read your 16:34 post I told her you hadn’t backed it so she read your 15:55 post, shook her head at me and said “I’m not surprised – he told you it wasn’t his Lay bet, you don’t read anything properly do you, your the same with instructions manuals”.

... and that’s when the fight started. LaughLaugh
Report happysandwich September 16, 2020 7:39 PM BST
Lovely country Australia – shame about their cricket team.
Cashed out and only lost £8.32 instead of £10.

The moral of the story is :- if you’re going to learn a hard lesson – do it for a tenner.Cool

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Australia
1.55
£10.00
£5.50
Ref: 211302267510 Matched: 13:05 16-Sep-20
Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Australia
8.6
£0.08
£0.61
Ref: 211340274324 Matched: 19:23 16-Sep-20
Australia
8.8
£1.68
£13.10
Ref: 211339744360 Matched: 19:18 16-Sep-20
Report happysandwich September 16, 2020 10:56 PM BST
Before anyone comments on my above cricket fiasco.

I backed Australia £10 @ 1.55 to win and they drifted out to 14/1 during the match with England down to 1.02 so I cashed out and saved £1.74 of my £10 stake.

The amount is irrelevant, obviously, but it was like watching my pennies going down the drain.

Without hindsight what should I have done, given National pride was also at stake here?

No serious answers please. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 17, 2020 12:02 PM BST
Happysandwich

No comment, except yeah of little faith Wink Laugh

Never mind, you won on a couple of horse lays, so a profitable day.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 18, 2020 5:00 PM BST
Good afternoon Guys

You may have seen a post by Gaze 733 earlier who mentioned a horse he had backed. Irrespective of the post content i looked at the race and thought this could be layed (i actually posted i wouldn't be a backer).

The horse is Cassy O in Ayr 5.25. Won yesterday (33/1) over the course albeit over a furlong shorter. He was the lowest weighted in that race, receiving 13 lb and 20 lb from the 2nd and 3rd respectively. Has a 6 lb penalty today and actually carries 21 lb more (in actual terms of weight) than yesterday as it drops a class lower. In his previous race over 8f he certainly didn't excel although it should be noted who the trainer is (and in form).

I thought to post it, but from an earlier 9/4, it's now 5/2 - 11/4 so out of my range, but probably worth a lay anyway, albeit with the risk it's improved significantly. Good luck.
Report happysandwich September 18, 2020 5:58 PM BST
I’ve just woken up from an afternoon nap (sleep) at 5:45pm to see I’ve missed the above Lay bet.

Tiredness could be a blessing.

Hands up who else missed it.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 18, 2020 6:13 PM BST
Happysandwich

Hands up here, first for getting it wrong and second for not laying it.

He got an easy lead and although tying up in the last furlong stayed on and never really looked like being caught to be honest.

I did say the risk was he had improved significantly and TE could win the boat race with one at the moment. I'm happy you didn't lay it and i swerved one that would have dented my record so not all bad.

Hopefully a better read of a race tomorrow.
Report Lucky Luciano September 18, 2020 9:49 PM BST
Evening Andrew,
After my lucky short head win pick last Saturday, what do you think on the following ?

Chosen another tricky little race 1.40 Newbury, where I fancy one

The stats say this is a very good race for the favourite, likely to be Equilateral. However seems to need a break and runs better fresh so only running 6 days ago could be against him, has run in this the last two years at odds of 7/2 and 3/1 and been beaten.

I fancy the horse that finished just behind him at Ascot (behind Battash) which is Tis Marvellous who was beaten a length that day on its first run for 255 days.
Since then has run 4th at Sandown from an outside draw running on, then over maybe too far 6f and last time hosed up at Leicester in a lower grade race but on going that wouldn't have suited it. Tomorrows going should be better if the sun keeps shining. Has the class to win this and Clive cox in good form so that's my pick.

Again not an easy race to solve, more than just those two with a chance but any opinions welcome.

Happy,
On a non racing topic, as you most likely know Tuesday was the 80th anniversary Battle of Britain day. Stayed down a mates place this week and visited the nearby BoB museum at what was RAF Hawkinge (they flew hurricanes out of there) I've been to Duxford which was brilliant but if you get the chance I highly recommend visiting. So many exhibits and they have an original Heinkel bomber in the grounds outside. Tenner to get in which is much needed to keep it going, spent a couple of hours there but could have spent a few hours more and not read everything. Also there is a little pub nearby called the Cat and Custard with RAF memorabilia if you need refreshments. 

All social distancing was observed with masks so quite safe
Report happysandwich September 19, 2020 10:53 AM BST
Lucky,

http://www.kbobm.org/

Cheers, I’ll put that on my ‘bucket list'.
I’ve been to Duxford, but years ago when our kids were small, and remember going onboard the Concorde they had parked there.

ps
Having been born in 1941 if I find out that Heinkel was the one that dropped it’s bombs on Bethnal Green I’ll let it’s tyres down.Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 19, 2020 11:16 AM BST
Good morning Guys

Some decent cards this afternoon suiting all tastes, turf and AW on the flat, as well as a NH meeting and even a listed race at Saint Cloud with a couple of UK based runners. From a quality perspective Newbury provides it with 3 Group class races including the Mill Reef stakes and there’s a couple of relatively easy to fathom sprint handicaps at Ayr accompanying the Group 3 Firth of Clyde and the listed Doonside Cup that i’m particularly interested in.

With respect to the latter race i like Fox Champion, a horse I once put up a lay recently, although the consistent runner Addeybb is the rightful favourite dropping in class. Oisin takes the ride this afternoon replacing Silvestre De Sousa for the first time. I wouldn’t read too much into this as he has a book of decent rides at Newbury. On one hand i actually see this as a positive, i didn’t think SS made use of him last time and felt he should have won.

He receives 7 lb from Addeybb (rated 8 lb lower) who hasn’t raced since early June and would appreciate rain. If Oisin can sit closer to the pace than SS did last time i think Fox Champion can win, although i must point out he’s my nap in the daily completion and almost certainly my selection on behalf of the luck Pins in the team version. I would also consider a lay of the favourite.

Another I like is Rhythm Master in the Mill Reef stakes at Newbury, although it’s a decent field. Impressive on debut in a small class 5 novice stakes at Haydock he surpassed that run with flying colours next time out finishing 3rd in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville and on another day could have finished closer to the winner (an unbeaten, very good Wesley Ward filly) who he was giving 4 lb to. Different ground today, but i doubt this will be an issue, he could be useful.

Over the jumps at Newton Abbot I think the improving Bit On The Side could win the opener (2.25) with a front running performance, although you wouldn’t want her to replicate jumping to the right (at times) LTO with Newton Abbot being left handed. Other than this occasional trait, she actually jumped well and it was a good run to beat the odd-on Nicky Henderson trained favourite Miss Farage.

In the Ayr Silver Cup (2.30) i thought Atalanta’s Boy had an EW chance, but you could select well over half the field and not get the winner. I thought the favourite Kinds Lynn was far too short.

Still looking for a lay selection.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all. Happy

Lucky Luciano

You certainly like a challenge trying to pick a winner, not the easiest race to choose, but you succeeded last week with Wichita and have every chance this afternoon with Tis Marvellous. I don’t think it’s a quality group 3 by any means and you could pick holes in most of them, although i certainly wouldn’t discount Equilateral even allowing for your valid point about him running better fresh. Hollie could win on a rocking horse at the moment and the horse is certainly the classiest in the field.

Tis Marvellous will get a tow into the race with Ornate and Glorious Anna. The ground shouldn’t be an issue, and he has the beating of Lazuli at the weights based on their recent Sandown running, but is he a Group 3 horse. I can’t see Tinto or Glamourous Anna winning, Ornate will be clear early and is not out of it, Wise Words has to improve (and could of course) and with Moss Gill now a NR I can certainly see yours being placed (unfortunately only 7 runners).

At his best he could win, but i just have a feeling Hollie will pick off the front runners close home. Whoever wins, there will be a another first for one of them as none of the field has won at Newbury before.

Good luck, i hope it wins for you.

Changing the subject, i’ve also been to Duxford aircraft museum and can really recommend it. I went several years back, a few of us had a 2 day review meeting on behalf of Saab at a company called Ultra Electronics in Cambridgeshire. We finished early and went to Duxford on the way back to Stansted. Well worth a visit.
Report Trusty September 19, 2020 1:56 PM BST
Left up £80 @ 4.5 overnight to back Fox and got 0.01p matched!
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 19, 2020 2:11 PM BST
WD Trusty, wish i had. Sad

Very poor run, if he had run 2nd to the favorite you could understand it, but faded badly. I should have stayed with my initial opinion when i layed him before.
Report Lucky Luciano September 19, 2020 2:25 PM BST
"You certainly like a challenge trying to pick a winner"Laugh
YEP !!

Tks for the replies earlier.
Drifted out to 7 on here pre race so wasnt expecting much, had backed it last night at 10/3 BOG, not EW 

Enjoy the weekend, weather is unbelievable nice and warm in London right now
Report happysandwich September 19, 2020 2:37 PM BST
Lucky,

Give this one a shout for us Laugh

Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Extra Elusive
2.76
£8.74
£15.38
Ref: 211576161000 Matched: 14:36 19-Sep-20
Extra Elusive
2.76
£42.81
£75.35
Ref: 211576161000 Matched: 14:36 19-Sep-20
Report happysandwich September 19, 2020 2:53 PM BST
^^^^
that's life Sad
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 22, 2020 9:50 AM BST
Good morning Guys

FYI on the 'Arc'

https://www.evenements.france-galop.com/en/qpat2020

Most will watch the race of racing channels anyway, but not everyone has them.
Report happysandwich September 26, 2020 11:41 AM BST
Andrew,

I've just posted this can you stick it on the right thread for me, please ?

undecided 25 Sep 20 22:31   
happysandwich, in this case you'll be glad to know you've got another go this week, the selection needs to be posted on the selections thread, or at least on the news and scores thread, or copied over by someone in good time.



If the above is true this my selection for today but I don't know exactly wich thread to post it.

Market Rasen 12:35 Go Chique
Report Lucky Luciano September 28, 2020 10:25 AM BST
Morning Andrew,
Hope you OK not posted recently ?
Thanks for info on how to watch this Sunday but not only am I'm not going but I've been booked to go out for Sunday lunch..Cry
Cheers
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 28, 2020 1:48 PM BST
Afternoon Lucky

I've been very busy recently, hence the lack of posting.

Off to Gatwick on Friday via Easy Jet, but staying in a hotel close to Waterloo station. I want to watch the Arc so i will find a sports-bar or go to see my brother in Walton on Thames. I did consider doing the same in Paris, but weather at the weekend is rain and more rain.

I have to get a Covid-19 test on my return (company policy) so will work from home for 2 days until i get the result.

Try to book a 'late' lunch with TV screens Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 28, 2020 7:54 PM BST
Good evening Guys

No lay selections for a while so i thought i would reiterate some Arc thoughts i posted on another thread a little while back.

Most readers know i'm a massive Enable fan and i'm gutted i can't be at Longchamp to see her last race, but this has been known for some time. Instead i'll be somewhere in London, hopefully in a location i can scream my head off if she wins.

I still feel she's the one to beat even approaching 7 years old, but with the ground riding maybe even softer than last year her chance is certainly not bettered. Having said that, she has won on soft, in fact it was at Chantilly in 2018 the venue of her first Arc win so all is not lost. How soft it will be is anyone's guess, but it's been raining in Paris for several days and is forecast to do so on many days this week.

I stated some time ago Love was underpriced, good filly that she is, but we all know the questionable form lines, she hasn't met colts yet and has been beaten on soft. Being a low knee action filly isn't going to help either. I thought Enable could maybe beat her on decent ground and i'm not going to be changing my mind now, in fact there is a possible scenario whereby AOB will pull her out and RM keeps the faith with Japan. Unlikely, but not impossible.

It's been a few years since we last had what i would consider a shock winner (Waldgeist wasn't) in the name of Solemia, the year (2012) that Frankel could have and would have won (possibly a biased opinion there Wink) so maybe we are due another one. Take Enable and Love out of the race and it's really open and quite possibly won by one we haven't considered, even more so with possible heavy ground.

Stradivarius has to come into the reckoning, yes we know he prefers decent ground, but he's won 2 Ascot Gold cups on soft. Persian King is another who has won on heavy, but will he stay 12f. Sottsass is probably a better option.

I mentioned on another thread recently that Telecaster was an EW option if it turned soft and at the time he was trading around 70 on here. I backed him to win at even bigger odds but only for small fun stakes (albeit to win closing on 800). He loves soft going, has a perfect 2/2 record going to France and looked good in a Group 2 at Deauville.

Last time i looked he was 25/1 at best with the books and the same on here, but i will let the bet run without trading until the actual race and if/when he's leading at the 3f pole. Irrespective of this, i think he could be a 3TBP bet in the race, but whether he's good enough to win is another story.

I have to stay with Enable (more heart than head) but i will not be lumping on of course and nor did i last year. I really want her to win for racings sake and sometimes the money isn't everything.

My 1-2-3

Enable
Sottsass
Telecaster

Good luck all

24-Sep-20
19:00:16    Longchamp 4th October
Telecaster - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Betfair Bet ID 1:212075602333 | Matched: 25-Sep-20 12:16:58    Back    85.00    0.69    --    --
57.96
Matched

19-Sep-20
17:55:37    Longchamp 4th October
Telecaster - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Betfair Bet ID 1:211613444231 | Matched: 22-Sep-20 11:42:42    Back    85.00    2.00    --    --
168.00
Matched

19-Sep-20
17:55:21    Longchamp 4th October
Telecaster - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Betfair Bet ID 1:211613407883 | Matched: 22-Sep-20 11:42:42    Back    85.00    2.00    --    --
168.00
Matched

19-Sep-20
07:14:21    Longchamp 4th October
Telecaster - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Betfair Bet ID 1:211533342774 | Matched: 19-Sep-20 07:31:10    Back    90.00    0.50    --    --
44.50
Matched

17-Sep-20
20:46:25    Longchamp 4th October
Telecaster - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Betfair Bet ID 1:211429790146 | Matched: 18-Sep-20 15:59:55    Back    90.00    2.30    --    --
204.70
Matched

17-Sep-20
05:53:57    Longchamp 4th October
Telecaster - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Betfair Bet ID 1:211366102304 | Matched: 17-Sep-20 06:56:30    Back    95.00    1.00    --    --
94.00
Matched

15-Sep-20
19:06:17    Longchamp 4th October
Telecaster - Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe
Betfair Bet ID 1:211253851654 | Matched: 16-Sep-20 23:59:45    Back    100.00    0.50    --    --
49.50
Matched
Report punchestown September 28, 2020 8:15 PM BST
Think it could be a bog on Sunday and something tells me it's going to be one of those years when a rag wins to save the books,I would love to see Enable bow out on a high and prove me wrong.
Report madhatters September 29, 2020 12:48 PM BST
Tele gone ?
Report happysandwich September 29, 2020 1:41 PM BST
I’m hoping these are your total bets on Teleprompter.

50p @ 85/1
£2 @ 85/1
£2 @ 85/1
50p @ 90/1
£2.30 @ 90/1
£1 @ 95/1
50p @ 100/1

Total Stake £8.99

The same amount I lost on that Aussie cricket match. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 29, 2020 3:32 PM BST
Madhatters

Yes, i saw it earlier. Sad

Never mind, it was only a fun bet a high odds, but it would have been interesting IR.

Happysandwich

Correct, was it you that took my 9 quid as revenge Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 29, 2020 3:37 PM BST
Punchestown

Yes, i sort of intimated this in my Arc post. Very soft ground looks likely now, a pity really it puts a dampener on the race (forgive the pun). We all wanted to see a duel between Enable and Love on good ground. I hope the latter runs as much as i want Enable to win.
Report Lucky Luciano September 29, 2020 4:22 PM BST
“Teleprompter”

That’s a blast from the past....John Lowe black and white silks but I might be wrong
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 29, 2020 4:27 PM BST
That is going back a while lucky.

Teleprompter created a little racing history as geldings were not allowed to run in Group 1 races at the time, but the rules were changed due to his success.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 29, 2020 4:34 PM BST
I wondered what brought up 'Telepromper' then i saw Happys' post.

Not to be confused with Telecaster Wink
Report FELTFAIR September 29, 2020 4:45 PM BST
If Enable wins Andrew, no screaming allowed for covid reasons unless you are alone in a locked room.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 29, 2020 4:53 PM BST
Feltfair

Laugh

If Enable wins, even Frankie will hear me screaming from London
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 29, 2020 7:01 PM BST
Good evening Guys

I haven't posted a lay in a while so i thought i would test the waters, albeit not with an official selection. I think the favourite Anna Of Lorraine in the 7.10 Wolverhampton is too short in the betting (currently 3.05). Reasonably well bred, but not showing the expected results. Tends to run a bit keenly (often goes to the front quickly). Up in class and down in trip. Not the best draw. A decent little handicap with plenty running for layers. The risk is obviously trainer and jockey combination with a lightly raced filly, but i don't think she will be winning this evening. Good luck all.
Report happysandwich September 30, 2020 8:36 AM BST
Good morning all on this beautiful sunny day in London,

Could this be my lucky week?

I switched the computer on this morning and noticed Andrew had posted at 19:01 last night.

Usually I misread the unofficial Lays and lump on regardless.Laugh
Report isleham September 30, 2020 8:59 AM BST
Please note the breeding of Love..by Galileo out of a Pivotal mare so plenty of hope she will be effective on soft..just hope for the race it's not a bog.
Also on the ground of 2012 (bottomless)there is probably no chance Frankel would have won that Arc imo
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 30, 2020 9:44 AM BST
Good morning Guys/Happy from a not so beautiful sunny day in München.

Not my best week of posting by any means, on Monday i mentioned i had backed Telecaster ante-post at odds ranging between 85-100 for the Arc and suggested it was an EW bet (at 25/1) and 24 hours later it's not among the declarations after a late setback. No real harm done, it was only a fun bet anyway, but it could have been a trade IR as he races prominently and i thought he may even be leading approaching the 2f (400 metres) pole. Never mind, i still have Enable to cheer.

As i hadn't posted a lay for a while (too busy) i thought i would mentioned one last night, albeit not an official post. I thought i had read the race well enough beforehand, she did go to the front (wasn't keen as previous races) and although the pack closed late on (runner-up finished strongly) she stayed on well and to be honest didn't look like being caught and won by 0.5L @ 15/8. 

I wish i had followed Happys' example and left the laptop switched off as i layed it, but not too much damage. Today is another day, so all forgotten.

I shouldn't tempt fate with another selection (a back this time) but i do fancy one at Huntingdon today, the ex-Richard Hannon trained Leroy Leroy in the 2.00. He has regressed a little on the flat (ran off 98 in July last year) but jumping appears to have reinvigorated him in 3 runs, winning well LTO beating a subsequent winner. This course will be ideal for him. I think odds of 5/4 are about right although the Kim Bailey runner will give him a decent race. Hopefully i've read this race better than the sprint at Wolverhampton last night, although it's not a lump on job of course.

Good luck and have a nice Wednesday all. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 30, 2020 10:26 AM BST
Love is a decent filly, but not as good as Enable was as a 3 year old (at least not yet). She’s clearly improved and won 3 Group 1’s this season with relative ease, but the opposition has to be questioned and the form hasn’t been franked at all. She beat Alpinista by 5L LTO, but she was rated 97 at the time and has been beaten since. What price Enable giving her 9 lb in that race (without Love). She beat a one time winner Ennistymon at Epsom and this one has been beaten in 5 subsequent races, one of them listed class. I totally appreciate Love is beating these fillies easily, but many could. 

She hasn’t raced against her male counterparts. What will she find off the bridle against decent opposition. How will she react going eyeball to eyeball with Enable (or another). How will she cope with soft/heavy ground, she ran 3 times last year with soft in the going description, each time under-performing. She’s a low action filly anyway, not ideally suited to soft. The dam, ex-John Gosden trained Pikaboo (a 5 race maiden) never raced on soft and was withdrawn from a race due to the going.

Don’t get me wrong, i think the filly is decent (and her price is now closer on here to how I see the race) but i still feel Enable is the one to beat and the rightful favourite, although as a betting proposition i think the 3TBP market is the way to go (as mentioned before) but this market will now be impacted by the going and the drift with Love. We still have the draw to consider as well and i would sooner have Frankie around Longchamp than RM.

I also hope the going isn’t heavy, and i want Love to run, i think most of us do.
Report Lampus September 30, 2020 2:19 PM BST
Leroy  HappyHappy
Report happysandwich September 30, 2020 2:22 PM BST
Thanks Andrew,

Had just a little nibble. Laugh

Order by matched date
Back (Bet For)
Odds Stake Profit
Leroy Leroy
2.08
£50.00
£54.00
Ref: 212643962136 Matched: 14:12 30-Sep-20
Report second again September 30, 2020 2:43 PM BST
Well done with leroy,I hope you enjoy your weekend over here and find somewhere suitable to watch the Arc.
Report PHS September 30, 2020 2:59 PM BST
WD AndrewCool
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 30, 2020 3:04 PM BST
Happy and Lampus

WD i didn't see the race only the result a few minutes ago. I had a similar bet, but don't even know if i got matched yet. A little redemption after last night Laugh

To think there was a post about his main rival Ajero, it should be reported Wink

Second again

Thank you. I'm looking forward to some Andrew time (been quite busy recently) and an English food fix, as well as the race of course.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden September 30, 2020 3:04 PM BST
Thanks PHS (didn't see your post) Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 2, 2020 9:43 AM BST
Good morning Guys from a dreary looking München

Leaving the office soon for my flight to Gatwick, but thought I would mention a shortie that I feel can be layed this afternoon. 

Coolanly in the 1.00 Fontwell currently around even money favourite. A half-decent hurdler (won a grade 2 at Cheltenham a couple of years ago) but it’s a beginners chase this afternoon and he has certainly looked novicey in a couple of races over the larger obstacles. I think his mark of 135 flatters him a little and also feel he needs a galloping track to show his best, Fontwell is far from that being a sharp figure of 8.

It looks a two horse race going by the betting, but i don’t see it like that, although i think I K Brunel could win. He probably has more scope than the favourite, goes well fresh and is a course winner.

Note this is not an official lay for the P/L (due to the risk).

Good luck all and have a nice Friday.

Happysandwich

Please don’t forget to put up a selection today/tomorrow for the Lucky Pins. Happy

TEAM TIPSTER COMP 2020 Round 4 Week 2 Selections
Report happysandwich October 2, 2020 12:10 PM BST
Good luck to those who are Laying Coolanly in 1:00 Fontwell today.

I’m keeping my powder dry for Enable Sunday.

Andrew,

Thanks for the reminder, I’ve just posted Hexham 1:15 Millie Of Mayo for the Tipster Comp.

Have a safe trip over and wear a mask at all times (if you don’t want to end up like Donald Trump). Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 2, 2020 12:25 PM BST
Thanks Happy and i'm used to wearing a mask over here

You forgot to post on the selection thread as well (see my post) but i've copied it over for you.

Good luck
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 4, 2020 9:52 AM BST
Good morning Guys from a dismal and drizzly Waterloo.

My suggested lay on Friday (6/5f) unfortunately didn't run to script (mine at least) making most of the running and holding on by a fast diminishing nose. Another two strides and we were safe. The winner actually jumped better than the runner-up (surprise to me) but i would rather be on the latter if they race again and feel he will end the season the better horse. Nevertheless a loser, albeit not for the P/L of course.

I do have two 'official' lays in mind today and hope to post later.

Happysandwich


Good luck with your bet today. You and i both want Enable to win, none more so than me and if you hear a voice shouting "press the button Frankie" and 20 seconds later a crescendo of shouting you will know where it came from. Laugh

I hope you're not lumping on, it's only my heart that says she is the one to beat, my head is less confident, but today is not the day to desert her by playing anything else. I'm only having a 3TBP bet and more interested in simply watching the race and her last one. If she doesn't win i think Sottsass will be the beneficiary.

The WPM trained Saint Roi at Tipperary (1.72 last time i looked) should win and if he doesn't i will be returning to Germany a little bit poorer.

Good luck all (specially Frankie and Enable) and have a nice Sunday. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 4, 2020 9:54 AM BST
Saint Roi 1.88 ShockedGrin
Report Lucky Luciano October 4, 2020 11:21 AM BST
Morning Andrew
Flying into london and this dreadful weather I hope enable has better luck.
I backed her last night when news came through of the withdrawals, I have more confidence than both you and JG. GrinGrin
Even though I’m out to lunch I will watch it even if has to be on the phone.
Have a good day
Report happysandwich October 4, 2020 11:41 AM BST
Good morning Andrew,

I’ve already decided not to lump on because Gosden gave wise words of caution with regards to the ‘going’ in an interview yesterday. Also the 2.40 price on here  seems too good to be true, which is always a warning sign to go easy.

I remember when we were in Paris last year for the Arc we needed an umbrella when we went for breakfast with our Niece and her husband although it had stopped and was sunny in the afternoon.

Today I think the rain over there will be the same as in London, relentless all day.

Plus Peslier (snotty Oliver) will also be trying to get one over Frankie on Stadivarious.


Bon chance everyone.

Lucky.

Having taken a better price last night a wise man would cash out now and just watch the race with a contented smile on their face. Laugh
Report Lucky Luciano October 4, 2020 6:24 PM BST
Stating the obvious but disappointing run !!
Layed safe voyage got some back but still done money on day
Happy
Good call I should have taken notice as well
Report PHS October 4, 2020 6:32 PM BST
WD with Saint Roi Andrew. I got 11/10 which was still pretty good after the 30p R4.
Report gazza66 October 4, 2020 7:17 PM BST
Well done Andrew. Can’t believe nobody has thanked or commented that you actually tipped up, mentioned, the winner Sottsass would be the beneficiary. Fortunately I did and won a few pounds. Thanks again.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 5, 2020 11:55 AM BST
Good afternoon Guys

The Arc turned out to be a damp squib (much like London weather over the weekend) at least for Enable fans. A slow pace and heavy ground were always going be against her and she never really looked like winning, even off the bend almost on terms. To be honest it was sad seeing her retire on such a low note against opposition she would have carried home 3 years ago, but deep down i think even her most ardent fans (me included) knew her fate several days ago. I thought Frankie would have seen the pace was really slow and taken up the running, but i doubt she would have won anyway.

She deserves retirement now and all this talk of another Breeders run is ludicrous and will not enhance her already impressive CV. I have fond memories of seeing her 2 Arc wins on different courses as well as following her since her Epsom Oaks win, she doesn’t owe me anything.

Enjoy it Enable, you are one of the best fillies/mares i’ve seen and i ‘ve seen some good ones in my time.

PHS

Thank you and WD on the win, i really thought he was a bet and couldn’t understand the odds drift later in the morning (i saw over 2). I backed it at odds-on here earlier (reduction factor was crazy) and at SP in a shop where i watched the race. I wasn’t even aware of the 2 NR’s until the race started and just thought the 4/7 was due to being well backed. In the race itself, he was always travelling well and when he cruised up to join the leader before the 2nd last the race was over.

Of course the opposition wasn’t so great after the NR’s, but it was a first run of the season and showed he’s in good heart after his Cheltenham County hurdle win. He needs to brush put his hurdling technique a little, but Willie has time to sort that out. The 2021 Champion hurdle looks open and he could be worth an EW ante-post, although i was surprised to see him as low as 10/1 with the books, good though i think he is. He was my nap in the daily comp so i must have been confident as i rarely post one on a Sunday.

Gazza

Thank you and WD on the win. The Arc wasn’t a good field and there were question marks about many of the main protagonists (Enable included) but they were much less with Sottsass. A two time group 1 winner, a group 2 win over CD, acts well on soft and 3rd last year not that far behind Enable. I mentioned on several threads i thought he could win if Enable didn’t, but did i back him on the strength of this opinion ? Not a cent, not even for a place. I was only ever going to have a 3TBP place (and not that big) on Enable as i stated and didn’t want to back  anything that opposed her. In hindsight a 3TBP bet on Sottsass would have been the way to go, but easy to say after the event.

Happysandwich/Lucky Luciano

WD on swerving Enable and laying Safe Voyage to recover some losses respectively. A pity we couldn’t meet up at the course, maybe next year, as i have a feeling we will not be at the Tingle Creek in December, although I may come over for the weekend for some pre-Christmas shopping.

Changing the subject, did you see who is top of the Championship with a 4/4 record. Wink

Good luck and have a nice Monday all.
Report Lucky Luciano October 6, 2020 9:24 AM BST
“Changing the subject, did you see who is top of the Championship with a 4/4 record.“
But will it be VQA always led or early pace faded badly Grin
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 6, 2020 9:46 AM BST
Lucky

Laugh

VQA, led 1-4, fought with rival on the run-in, DSQ.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 7, 2020 5:03 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

A quick post as i think the favourite at Galway 5.15 Pilbara is too short. The trip could be on the sharp side, first time in a handicap chase and it's not a bad field.

Not an official lay, but for what it's worth i've already layed it at 2.94.

Good luck all.
Report happysandwich October 7, 2020 5:23 PM BST
Saw it just in time Andrew.

Nice one, thanks.

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Pilbara
2.84
£50.00
£92.00
Ref: 213294939815 Submitted: 17:11 07-Oct-20
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 7, 2020 7:48 PM BST
Happysandwich

WD on the bet, good you saw my post in time.

Finished 9th (beaten 24L) @ 15/8f.

I looked through the form at lunchtime and thought it was very layable at the price. It had run in 3 beginners chases last year and didn't look like a chaser in the making in any of them. Connections gave it a break and went back to the hurdle route where he won a couple of egg and spoon races. Ran OK in a half-decent Galway handicap albeit off a low weight.

I was surprised they dropped it back in trip, it wants 22f at least and it was a decent field for a first time handicap attempt. Maybe we will see it in a 24f novices chase at somewhere like Tipperary next time out, but he made a few mistakes today

It could have been a P/L selection, but i posted in haste just over 10 minutes before race time. If i had typed out the sort of reasoning i often do, the race would have been over and weighed in.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 9, 2020 10:39 AM BST
Happysandwich

Please don't forget to post a team competition selection, today or tomorrow.
Report happysandwich October 9, 2020 12:19 PM BST
Thanks for the reminder Andrew.
I’ve put one up on the Lucky Pin Club team thread.

Now Custardcream has transferred it onto “the selections thread” and I wish I knew where that link was

“I've posted Happysandwich's pick onto the selections thread.”
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 9, 2020 2:22 PM BST
Lay Post

Downpatrick 2.52 - Farceur Du Large

A 5 year old Turgeon gelding trained by Noel Meade in Castletown, County Meath.

French bred, dam was a maiden in a couple of races (3rd of 4). Total of 4 offspring with a two time winner albeit low grade.

Lightly raced (6 runs).

Ran OK in a couple of 16f bumpers early last year, but blotted her CV when a well beaten (20L) even money favourite next time out in a similar race.

Form figures of 4-5-4 in 3 subsequent runs in maiden hurdle races (20f-20f-19f) each time finishing down the field (tended to weaken quickly).

Was receiving 9 lb from the front 3 LTO and between 5lb -9lb from the 4 placers in his penultimate race (a lot of dead wood in the latter couple of races).

Not a fluent hurdler and often prone to errors.

Has only raced on galloping tracks and Downpatrick is certainly not that (sharp).

May do better in time and possibly over shorter.

Unraced since January

Several NR’s have reduced the field to 12 and over half of them could probably be discounted, but layers still have 5 running for them.

The risk is he will improve and trainer/jockey current form, but 7/4 is short considering what he has actually achieved and he’s giving weight to some of the others in contention, hence the lay.

Lay @ 3.50

Good luck all.

09-Oct-20
12:16:29    14:52 Downpatrick
Farceur Du Large - 2m3f Mdn Hrd
Betfair Bet ID 1:213431283670 | Matched: 09-Oct-20 12:33:29    Lay    3.50    50.00    --    125.00
50.00
Matched
Report Lampus October 9, 2020 2:35 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 9, 2020 2:41 PM BST
but blotted his CV
Report happysandwich October 9, 2020 2:52 PM BST
Thanks Andrew,

Just seen it.

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Farceur Du Large
2.86
£13.07
£24.31
Ref: 213444862720 Submitted: 14:49 09-Oct-20
Partially Matched bet

Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake Your liability
Farceur Du Large
2.86
£36.93
£68.69
Ref: 213444862720 Matched: 14:49 09-Oct-20
Partially Matched bet
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 9, 2020 3:00 PM BST
I didn't see the race, but Bitbybit just sent result Cry
Report bitbybit October 9, 2020 3:37 PM BST
unlucky Andrew - It looked beat to me Sad
Report happysandwich October 9, 2020 4:05 PM BST
Can’t win them all Andrew.

My screen was still green until the last two jumps – but that’s life

I put £100 into my Betfair account on 28th July and I’ve still got £158.94 left.

I’m not out of the game quiet yet. Laugh
Report Lucky Luciano October 9, 2020 9:37 PM BST
Evening Andrew,
Could be an early bath tomorrow as going to lay Dakota Gold 1.00 York. Course form of 1201112 albeit in lower class.
Think it is too short and will probably go shorter in running as usually races up with the pace, has gone to a low of 2.88 and 2.4 in his last two races which were listed, beaten the last twice he ran in G3. Decent opposition and Michael Dods is 1/35 last 14 days.
The Tin Man could be the one if on a going day, getting on now 8yo but has been run well in two G1's this season.

Another tricky race and purely based on the price it could go IR so may play early and leave a lay IR

Whatya think ?
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 10, 2020 11:32 AM BST
Good morning Guys from a miserable day in München.

Weather wise and me after yesterdays’ lay post. I was really disappointed with the result as i was going for 10 successful lays in a row after a pre-covid poor run, but it is racing and i don’t get it right all the time.

One thing I did get right in the reasoning was his jumping (RP comment Led briefly until soon joined and headed, not fluent with jumping at times, 3rd before 3rd, slight mistake 4th, close up when mistake 2 out, led going best on outer before last) but unfortunately it didn’t stop him winning. Part of the reasoning was I thought jumping at speed around Downpatrick (as opposed to the galloping course he had been running on) would find him out.

I watched the replay a couple of times last night and if it had been live I would have been reasonably happy 2 flights out when his main rival led (didn’t find much) although to be honest the best horse won on the day. It was well backed down to 13/8 and unfortunately I layed at 5/2 that makes a difference in the P/L.

Moving on to the Newmarket card this afternoon, i put up Chindit on here LTO and he duly obliged at 15/8 after a slow start. A son of Wootton Bassett (recently bought by Coolmore) and sire of the moment, he’s a horse i like with a good attitude and turn of foot. I think he’s useful, but todays’ Dewhurst is a good field, one of the best in recent years. If he can handle the dip i feel he can win and go into the winter as favourite for next years’ 2000 guineas, but many a bubble has been burst in this race.

As for the Cesarewitch, how many pins do we need to get the winner, but if I only had one shot at it, would probably plump for an outsider in Future Investment. A lightly raced 4 year old with course experience and ran well behind a subsequent group 3 winner LTO over a trip that is probably too short. In his penultimate run he stayed on well to win over 16f giving away a lot of weight. Ralph Beckett is having a good season so at EW odds of 25/1 (6/7 places) he’s a viable selection.

Happysandwich/Bitbybit

Thanks for the comments, a bad day at the office as we all have sometimes.Sad

Happy, the important thing is you’re in profit, not everyone can say that since racing resumed. Wink

Lucky Luciano

I agree, another tricky race, but Dakota Gold has to be the rightful favourite and as you alluded he does have a very good course record. There doesn’t appear to be a lot of strong early pace in the field and he could lead, so for layers an IR play is probably the way to go on this course.

They will be queuing up to challenge him at the 1f pole and one I particularly like is Brad The Brief, the only 3 year old on the field, lightly raced and improving (has to today). He’s 2 lb worse off with Summerghand on a previous run when the latter was beaten a neck, but I would still back him to finish on front of this one.

I’m not really a fan on The Tin Man (good though he has been for connections) and he hasn’t performed well here before. Given a choice of laying this one or Dakota Gold it would be the former.

Is Dakota Gold a lay ? I wouldn’t put him up on here at 2/1 as i feel he is a risky selection, but I wish you good luck and hope it loses for you.

Good luck and have a nice Saturday all.
Report Lucky Luciano October 10, 2020 12:20 PM BST
Tks for the reply Andrew, backed down to 2.86 now 
GL today

10-Oct-20
11:49:20    13:00 York
Dakota Gold - 6f Grp 3
Betfair Bet ID 1:213520964261 | Matched: 10-Oct-20 11:51:19    Lay    2.98    50.00    --    99.00
50.00
Matched
Report Lucky Luciano October 10, 2020 1:05 PM BST
commentator called it "never got anywhere near him"
Report The Dragon October 10, 2020 1:21 PM BST
poor ride from jockey on the tin man  never gave it a chance
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 10, 2020 1:30 PM BST
Lucky

The race played into the favourites hands really. Pre-race it looked like he was going to get an uncontested lead with most (if not all) the field coming off the pace and he runs the track well. I think you knew your fate over a furlong out. Sad

I was surprised at the SP of The Tin Man, reliable that he is, but not won for over 2 years.

Good luck if you play later.
Report happysandwich October 10, 2020 1:41 PM BST
Lucky,

My advice, for what it’s worth, is don’t try to win your loss back today because having read that race so badly wrong your luck is out.

Wait for Andrew’s next Lay, like me, and nibble your way back to square one.

Remember, when things go wrong it’s always nice to have someone else to blame.  Only joking A.Laugh
Report Lucky Luciano October 10, 2020 2:07 PM BST
Hello Happy,

"because having read that race so badly wrong your luck is out"

Well that made me chuckle, thanks....anyway I'm blaming Adam Kirby for riding such a bad race
GL today pal
Report meisson October 14, 2020 12:41 PM BST
ANDREW.IN.SWEDEN,  you replied to a post of mine on this blog, since I seldom post anything, I 99% of the time only invest on horses.
I do look at the horse racing posts, since i love reading anything about horses, and I find that your posts are by far the most well researched on the forum.

I pick horses not only on the form as I see it , but spend much time studying re-runs of videos , trying to spot things the so called experts never mention.
I only venture outside of horses a few times really if I see something I think is special.
In 2016 I saw videos of rally for the first time ever and placed bets on what i saw with my own eyes.
I watched a rally from Michigan at 1 AM on Election Day, where thousands were standing in the early hours of the morning outside a packed stadium.
I believe republicans had not won that state in over 30 years, so as a result I got about 8 to 1 .
They won , as did about 7 more similar, only one lost, New Hampshire, in very suspicious circumstances.

I was interested to see that you said you had already done your research, I assume not from the MSM, so since I do respect your knowledge on horses, could you please tell me what research you did, since I would be very interested.
Many thanks.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 14, 2020 2:28 PM BST
Hi Meisson.

Many thanks for the kind comments, much appreciated.

Likewise, apart from reading form lines (necessary) i also like watching video replays and occasionally several times of the same race, they are actually very informative and not only for the horse you’re interested in.

As for my next USA presidency market bet mentioned on your thread, my ‘research’ is not what my words may have implied (more tongue-in-cheek) although the bets are real. If we go back to 2016, Trump was touted as the successful businessman, a reality TV star, a showman, certainly not the typical stereotype political character we are used to. Hillary wasn’t popular (even with democrats) and it was also a period when the populous in many countries were starting to rebel (Brexit a typical example) and wanted changes.

HC was simply a female, white version of Obama with tired politics and it shouldn’t have been a mega surprise Donald won, more so considering the way the electoral system works over there, although i’m honest enough to say i backed against him.

Move on 4 years and Trump has shown his true character and his presidency has been riddled with negativity, especially in the past couple of years with probably the stock market being his only saving grace, although he inherited a rising economy that was coming out of the doldrums in 2016 (as was the worlds).

The Karma this year has undoubtedly been his tax issues, BLM, Covid and his handling of it, without these and the markets at almost record levels (not necessarily an indicator of an economy) he would be well odds on now. I feel Covid is the straw that will break the camel’s back at the polling booths, although i do concede there are supporters who would vote for him whatever the scenario.

Trumps team is in disarray, several are temporarily incapacitated with Covid and others are backing away due to constant bad press (CNN hate him). He’s jumped off a hospital bed in typical action man style and already preaching to the converted at rallies and will be doing so up to November 3rd if health permits, but are these really vote catchers. Most of those in attendance are worshippers anyway who would still back him if he shot the Pope and stole his mitre.

You made some good observations (and bets) from the 2016 rallies, but this is 4 years on and it will not be so easy for him to win some of swing states in 2020 based on recent negativity.

I’m surprised the democratic party couldn’t come up with a better candidate than Jo Biden, nice guy though he probably is. Surely they could find a much younger, exuberant, vibrant candidate aka Justin Trudeau to be the next potential president. Having said that, in my opinion it’s Joes to lose, there will be many anti Trump voters (including those who were with him in 2016) and i will be very surprised (and poorer) if he’s not declared the eventual winner, even with Trump antics that will inevitably delay the process.   

Good luck.
Report meisson October 14, 2020 4:59 PM BST
Hello Andrew,

Thank you very much for your reply, although we may or may not agree on our assessment of things, I think healthy discussions are great.

Whilst I do not lay horses in isolation anymore, I love your analysis of races , much more interesting than the usual racing journalists.
After I retired I tried laying short price favourites in big field handicaps.
It was a disaster for me.
Would you believe I laid 12 winners out of 13 lays.
I gave up after that.

My biggest gripe about horse racing in the UK , are the starting stalls.

I have watched thousands of races in one country over the years, and have never seen a blindfold put on a horse.
I have never seen a Monty Roberts rug used.
I have never seen the starting stall handlers push a horse into the stalls.
I have never seen a horse refusing to go in the stalls.
They have 48 hour declarations, yet I have seen more non runners in 1 race in the UK than in over 2,000 races.
When the starter raises his flag to start loading, a 16-18 runner race takes about 40-50 seconds to start.

I love horse racing, I just wish they could get their act together and sort out the start.

I did reply on my other post, and a Newmarket-spurs replied, saying that he knew exactly what was happening from 2015, and mentioned about 50/1.
I had that and more, and was backing and laying on the basis of what I was seeing myself.

I had never heard of Trump before July 2015, but since then as a hobby, along with horse racing, I have followed daily, but as you may gather do not follow fake news.

Trump entered politics as a billionaire, and his wealth has decreased considerably in 4 years.

Are you aware that as President he gets 400,000 dollars a year?
Did you know that he gives it all away to charity and other good causes every quarter?
He does the job for nothing.
His eldest daughter and her husband work for the USA for  nothing?

Have you been following the attempted coup d’etat to take down the US Trump government with their Russia hoax and fake impeachment?

How is it that most of their politicians on about 160,000 dollars a a year , are millionaires, with some worth tens of millions.
Joe Bidens’s son got 3.5 million dollars from the wife of the Moscow mayor, when Biden was Vice President.
Why does the media not ask them to explain how this came about?

I put up the post in the hope that others who may disagree, would tell me why, and give me leads to their sources of information, that I would love to look at also.

You may be interested if you have the time to look, at some of the sites I follow, mostly conservative, I would look at the opposite sites if someone could tell me where to find them..

1 promiseskept .com   Last 4 years promises made, promises kept.

2 thedonald .win        Great blog site, some very clever and witty people here, they spread the truth, some amazing memes, many good people

3 theconservativetreehouse .com.     A site that tells you just what is going on, they not only give the news, but show official legal documents to back up.

4 on twitter floridadude297.       This chap says he has his own company employing 450 people. Not sure what he does, but he does polls all over the USA
                                                   He does polls of 500 people minimum, often 5,000. , and recently 50,000.

Early tip for you, and I never give tips , but this one may only come about after I am gone.

Candace Owens follow her on twitter, she will be USA President one day, if she wants it, no question.

I have followed her on twitter since July 2017 after she gave up her job, gave up being a liberal, and became a conservative.
She started out on YouTube as red pill black, and boy has she progressed from that, now has 2.5 million followers.

Do hope you found this of some interest, and please keep up your analysis of some horse races, they are great.
Report happysandwich October 16, 2020 7:15 PM BST
Quack!!  Quack!!

Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden October 17, 2020 12:01 PM BST
Happy,

With reference to your comment above, have you walked the course at Ascot ? Wink

I was seriously thinking to put up Stradivarius as the lay selection, there is reasoning, but risky of course.
Report happysandwich October 17, 2020 12:44 PM BST
What and risk bumping into Donald? Laugh

Strange you mention Stradivarius as I was going to back it to win but the fact it’s now drifted out to 2.2 and you thinking of Laying it has made me think twice.

As in life, if something seems too good to be true it probably is.

So leave the race alone for both our sakes.
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