Andrews' New Random Day Lay Thread

Good morning Guys and Girls, Happy New Year 2020 to you all.

Regular readers will be fully aware of my previous 3 lay threads, the first one on a daily basis, the latter 2 on random days simply due to work commitments. They created far more interest than i could have envisaged when i started the first one back in late April 2018 and eventually not only became a platform where lovers of horse racing could debate varying topics (thank you to some decent posters) but also football (i try not to mention Bristol City FC too much) weather forecasts, travel monologues and even bread pudding recipes courtesy of the forums very own Gordon Ramsey, Happysandwich, although having met the latter i can assure everyone he swears less.

Not only did i get to meet Happysandwich, but several others, including a well known bookmaker (Ed Thompson) on a couple of occasions, who i can assure you is more amenable than Barry Dennis, not that i have anything at all against the latter other than i thought i was making a short term loan to him in the shape of Air Force Blue in the 2016 2000 Guineas. I think he's approaching the final furlong as i type these words (the horse not Barry, although i feel the latter was actually faster).

The 3 threads have all been profitable (full breakdown at the end of this post) with an overall gain of almost £2200, although i was very disappointed with the last one. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why i consider this one almost a failure, but it would be pointless, I make the selections, post a reasoning that i consider valid at the time, match the bet and that's it. Thinking back "why did i lay that one" is again pointless, everything is clearer with hindsight as we all know and experience. Never mind, i will not dwell on it, i know for a fact several readers profited, and 3 of them to significant amounts.

One thing i did differently on the last thread was not to select a single 2 year old (as an experiment) and i feel this was wrong, so this time this exclusion will not be in place.

Conditions of the lay will be exactly the same as before, only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 (circa 3.75 on here) or under (at time of posting) and matched on here to win a level stake of £50 each time. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post and I will also provide reasoning for the lay.

For complete transparency i will post the record status and running P/L, exactly as before, but i will do away with the smiley/sad faces and revert to the table format that takes less time to create.

Note the lays will be posted on random days (as the last two threads) this is simply due to work commitments and freedom of time that i may not have the luxury of on a daily basis, even though i'm currently on a 'semi-leave' of absence until Friday 10th (my daughter spending time with me).

As before, anyone is welcome to post, banter is welcomed and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. Of course, we have all seen from the last thread there are those that have no interest in the game, or anything constructive to say, preferring to act as childish trolls, but this is sadly a reflection of social media society we know today. I've blocked 2 of them already, something i should have done a long time ago and i sense the other (kemo, who i suspect is the same poster anyway) will soon join them, he would not be missed by me at all and i sense most on here would agree.

The ultimate goal is obviously to make a profit, but from a personal perspective i have two goals, the first to improve my best success rate of 83% (55/66, including the initial 14/14) as i feel i made a few poor choices then, although i honestly have doubts of achieving this. The other is to better 18/19 (i did this twice) but again it will be difficult. The magic 20 in a row is a figure mentioned on here often, but although not impossible, i think it almost is.

Good luck all and have a wonderful New Years Day.

Lay thread record.

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (various months)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level max stake £50 per day (after commission). To be confirmed.

Link to a spreadsheet outlining many details of the last thread, many thanks to Bitbybit for taking the effort to create it. Striding Edge also did the same on the 2nd thread (again thanks).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WHfaou2KbsZWqMTpWGDiJY5T_kikH1r4V-p7_lsqMe4/edit#gid=499794971