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Andrew.in.Sweden
01 Jan 20 09:29
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Date Joined: 22 Apr 19
| Topic/replies: 4,600 | Blogger: Andrew.in.Sweden's blog
Good morning Guys and Girls, Happy New Year 2020 to you all. Happy

Regular readers will be fully aware of my previous 3 lay threads, the first one on a daily basis, the latter 2 on random days simply due to work commitments. They created far more interest than i could have envisaged when i started the first one back in late April 2018 and eventually not only became a platform where lovers of horse racing could debate varying topics (thank you to some decent posters) but also football (i try not to mention Bristol City FC too much) weather forecasts, travel monologues and even bread pudding recipes courtesy of the forums very own Gordon Ramsey, Happysandwich, although having met the latter i can assure everyone he swears less. Wink

Not only did i get to meet Happysandwich, but several others, including a well known bookmaker (Ed Thompson) on a couple of occasions, who i can assure you is more amenable than Barry Dennis, not that i have anything at all against the latter other than i thought i was making a short term loan to him in the shape of Air Force Blue in the 2016 2000 Guineas. I think he's approaching the final furlong as i type these words (the horse not Barry, although i feel the latter was actually faster).

The 3 threads have all been profitable (full breakdown at the end of this post) with an overall gain of almost £2200, although i was very disappointed with the last one. I could go into a lengthy synopsis into why i consider this one almost a failure, but it would be pointless, I make the selections, post a reasoning that i consider valid at the time, match the bet and that's it. Thinking back "why did i lay that one" is again pointless, everything is clearer with hindsight as we all know and experience. Never mind, i will not dwell on it, i know for a fact several readers profited, and 3 of them to significant amounts.

One thing i did differently on the last thread was not to select a single 2 year old (as an experiment) and i feel this was wrong, so this time this exclusion will not be in place.

Conditions of the lay will be exactly the same as before, only one post in any given day (to prevent chasing) bookmaker odds of 5/2 (circa 3.75 on here) or under (at time of posting) and matched on here to win a level stake of £50 each time. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post and I will also provide reasoning for the lay.

For complete transparency i will post the record status and running P/L, exactly as before, but i will do away with the smiley/sad faces and revert to the table format that takes less time to create.

Note the lays will be posted on random days (as the last two threads) this is simply due to work commitments and freedom of time that i may not have the luxury of on a daily basis, even though i'm currently on a 'semi-leave' of absence until Friday 10th (my daughter spending time with me).

As before, anyone is welcome to post, banter is welcomed and all i politely request is no personal bickering please. Of course, we have all seen from the last thread there are those that have no interest in the game, or anything constructive to say, preferring to act as childish trolls, but this is sadly a reflection of social media society we know today. I've blocked 2 of them already, something i should have done a long time ago and i sense the other (kemo, who i suspect is the same poster anyway) will soon join them, he would not be missed by me at all and i sense most on here would agree.

The ultimate goal is obviously to make a profit, but from a personal perspective i have two goals, the first to improve my best success rate of 83% (55/66, including the initial 14/14) as i feel i made a few poor choices then, although i honestly have doubts of achieving this. The other is to better 18/19 (i did this twice) but again it will be difficult. The magic 20 in a row is a figure mentioned on here often, but although not impossible, i think it almost is.

Good luck all and have a wonderful New Years Day.

Lay thread record.

Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Spring/Summer)
Total 66 selections (including Saturday and Sunday thread)
Success 55/66
Strike rate 83%
Overall profit +£1657 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Random Daily Lay Thread 2018 (Summer/Winter)
Total 64 selections
Success 46/64
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£425 to level max stake £50 per day (less commission)

Daily Lay Thread 2019 (various months)
Total 78 selections
Success 56/78
Strike rate 72%
Overall profit +£81 to level max stake £50 per day (after commission). To be confirmed.

Link to a spreadsheet outlining many details of the last thread, many thanks to Bitbybit for taking the effort to create it. Striding Edge also did the same on the 2nd thread (again thanks).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1WHfaou2KbsZWqMTpWGDiJY5T_kikH1r4V-p7_lsqMe4/edit#gid=499794971

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By:
gdrj
When: 01 Jan 20 09:49
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Happy New Year.
By:
smirnoff2therescue
When: 01 Jan 20 10:13
G/L wiv new thread Andrew - plenty will continue to read it and enjoy it for what it is and just simply ignore the trolls who will try their best to spoil it but will always fail in the long run Wink
By:
cardenden
When: 01 Jan 20 10:19
threads just started ,,and i hve been mentioned numerious times already,, just shows ,,im a very very popular lady,,,
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 01 Jan 20 10:21
Good luck with it Andrew, thanks for taking the time to post your lays and thoughts, I'm sure many of us on here have profited from your picks.
Enjoy the rest of your time the with your daughter and here's to a happy and successful New Year
By:
Tiger Tiger
When: 01 Jan 20 11:32
Good luck.
By:
TheAnorak
When: 01 Jan 20 11:53
Morning Andrew,

Best wishes for the new thread and the New Year.

Headline from the Daily Star:

"CRAZED squirrels are attacking terrified MUMS"
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 01 Jan 20 11:55
Hi Guys and Girls,

The lay selection is Southwell 3.05 - Crimson King @ 3.05

Reasoning post up later.

Good luck all.

01-Jan-20
11:51:17    15:05 Southwell
Crimson King - 1m3f Hcap
Betfair Bet ID 1:190187269208 | Matched: 01-Jan-20 11:51:32    Lay    3.05    50.00    --    102.50
50.00
Matched
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 01 Jan 20 11:58
Many thanks for the good luck message Guys, much appreciated. Happy

All i need now is a good start to 2020.

Morning Alan,

Laugh. Brilliant, sums this place up sometimes.
By:
happysandwich
When: 01 Jan 20 12:07
HAPPY NEW YEAR !!! – Everybody.

I’ll start it with 20 - 20 vision and a bit of nostalgia down memory lane.

Lets hope the new thread can better it.

http://community.betfair.com/horse_racing/go/thread/view/94102/31437817/andrews-random-day-nap-lay---new-thread
By:
Lampus
When: 01 Jan 20 12:09
Thank you  ANDREW  Happy

Good Luck
By:
Davros
When: 01 Jan 20 12:24
Good luck with the new thread Andrew.  I am giving serious thought to buying Angel Lane over Crimson King in a spread match supremacy bet in the 3:05.  Up in trip with new headgear on is often a recipe for trouble and Angel Lane has solid form in a higher class race.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Jan 20 12:31
While I have regularly read the three previous threads I have only ever sporadically followed Andrew official lays - I'm guessing around a dozen times in total, and as I have said repeatedly, I seem to jinx them as around half of those won the race, including the last two I layed.Cry As such for Andrews sake I have left them all alone for the best part of a year.Laugh

Given it is a brand new thread I have joined in with todays lay (layed at 3.2) so hopefully I don't have the usual effect.Devil

GL Andrew
By:
ashleigh
When: 01 Jan 20 12:38
good luck with the new thread andrew, will be watching with interest.Cool
By:
The Management
When: 01 Jan 20 12:50
Happy New Year Andrew! - Good luck with your new thread.

I laid Crimson King LTO as I have him down as a bit of a "rogue" (a bit of a thinker with his own mind) - but I tend to avoid laying horses on my "rogue" list when (presumably because the connections agree with me and) new headgear is applied for the first time (in fact I sometimes back them at this point!). Given that the First Time Visor seemed to bring about some improvement, I don't think I would want to lay Crimson King today in the First Time Blinkers but it is a very temptingly short price again!  Planned to watch only - with much interest. Good luck.
By:
Early Morning Riser
When: 01 Jan 20 13:25
Best of luck with your new thread Andrew,I have not layed it but backed it's stable mate Restive instead.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 01 Jan 20 14:34
Lay Post

Southwell 3.05 - Crimson King

A 4 year old Kingman gelding trained by Michael Appleby at Oakham, Rutland

Dam (Irish) was a winner of 3 from 12, but not so successful in the breeding world with 4 offspring still maidens after a total of 19 races.

Still a maiden after 12 races, 9 of them in Ireland (trained by Charles O'Brien).

3 runs for Mick since coming to UK, all on the AW and over 8f with form figures of 3-2-4 in a couple of class 6 races and class 5 LTO.

Not necessarily un-genuine, but carried his head high and hung on his first run for Mick finishing 3rd.

Ran better next time out finishing runner-up, but didn't improve on that LTO when 4th, receiving 12 lb and 9 lb from the front two respectively. Ran off a mark of 62, and once again carried his head high and hung in the later stages, additionally looked one paced. Runs off the same mark this afternoon.

Steps back up in trip to 11f, but didn't show much in 3 Irish races over 10f and 12f.

Runs in first time blinkers.

Only 6 runners and although i couldn't fancy the outsider, the others are more than capable of winning, specially Angel Lane, although it wouldn't be a betting race for me.

Risk with the lay is Mick does OK with similar types on occasion, although i certainly don't see him as another Lion Hearted who improved significantly in his hands.

Lay @ 3.05 (ref my 11.55 post).

Good luck all.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 01 Jan 20 14:34
More later Guys, i'm in the city with daughter. Happy
By:
Lampus
When: 01 Jan 20 14:48
Thank you ANDREW for  the  Irish lay  HappyHappy
By:
shady69
When: 01 Jan 20 15:09
wd sir Cool
By:
michael59
When: 01 Jan 20 15:09
vwd AIS
By:
PHS
When: 01 Jan 20 15:09
Nice start Andrew.
By:
Lampus
When: 01 Jan 20 15:09
Thank you  ANDREW  for the lay double  Top  Laying HappyHappy
By:
Early Morning Riser
When: 01 Jan 20 15:09
Well done Andrew, a nice start for the new year for you.
By:
second again
When: 01 Jan 20 15:09
Well done AndrewCool
By:
happysandwich
When: 01 Jan 20 15:11
Nice one Andrew.

It couldn't have started the new thread better.

Cheers and here's to many more good results for you.
By:
23nights
When: 01 Jan 20 15:15
well done andrew
By:
Macintoshmatty
When: 01 Jan 20 15:21
well done Andrew, many thanks
By:
gdrj
When: 01 Jan 20 15:21
N1.
By:
fronter
When: 01 Jan 20 15:26
Great stuff Andrew again!
By:
bitbybit
When: 01 Jan 20 16:16
A great start Andrew - Well done!!
By:
adamanty
When: 01 Jan 20 17:19
Let me join all those above by wishing you all
the best for 2020.
By:
xam
When: 01 Jan 20 17:30
To all the genuine and sensible people on here , especially you Andrew, I should like to wish you all a very Happy and Prosperous New Year,but more importantly a healthy one.
By:
unclepuncle
When: 01 Jan 20 17:53
Well done Andrew.Cool

However I have to take some credit as about an hour after laying the selection, and even though your lay thread has been proven to be a license to print money, I decided I didn't want to risk £110 of my hard won cash on a crappy race that I wouldn't even have looked at but for your post. So I cashed out my bet for no loss, and then a minute before the off I caved in and laid it in the two to be placed market instead at 1.8.Crazy
So as usual I lost money on your selection, but by doing so I guaranteed victory for you and your legion of follows.Crazy

I really should be paid for this kind of altruism.Laugh
By:
happysandwich
When: 01 Jan 20 18:37
Unclepuncle,

We just can’t find the words that would adequately express our gratitude towards you for your help

Would a couple of big kisses suffice? Laugh

XX
By:
The Management
When: 01 Jan 20 19:10
Well done Andrew - a pleasing start to the new year and the new thread! Cool
By:
G Hall
When: 02 Jan 20 00:20
Happy New Year Andrew and everyone and an excellent start to the new year.
By:
Andrew.in.Sweden
When: 02 Jan 20 12:14
Good afternoon Guys and Girls,

Many thanks for the supportive comments and new year greetings, much appreciated. Happy

A good start to the year with the lay selection Crimson King finishing 2nd @ 2/1.

In summary, he was covered up at the rear for most of the way with the winner Angel Lane racing prominently. The latter made a decisive kick around the final bend to go 3L clear and although the runner up did run on from the 2f pole was always looking held, beaten 2.5L.

The winner veered off a straight line to the stands side and was conceding 7 lb so a good performance overall and he can win again in similar company. The pair drew well clear of the field in the home, 10L in fact, although I suspect this was due to the pace and how the race panned out, not necessarily based on form.

The first time blinkers appeared to work for Crimson King (no high head carriage or hanging) and Mick will probably find a small race him before season end (it will probably run up a sequence now i’ve stated that).

I noticed he had 3 winners at the course yesterday, so a trainer very much in form.

In hindsight probably not the best lay selection i picked yesterday, another i posted on Stridings thread, Milans Native (unplaced) was probably the better based on risk, but it worked out OK in the end

I’m not sure there will be a lay selection this afternoon as i went to the office for a few hours this morning and only flipped through the cards. What i’ve seen since i’m not too enamoured with although there’s still a later AW card at Chelmsford.

Good luck and have a nice Thursday all. Happy

Unclepuncle

Additional thanks for assisting layers (ref your posts at 12.31 and 17.53) you are very welcome to post again.

Seriously, no worries, you never were a jinx anyway, it was simply bad timing.
By:
Lampus
When: 02 Jan 20 12:18
Good Luck  ANDREW  Happy  on  the  other thread
By:
happysandwich
When: 02 Jan 20 21:42
Lampus,

Whatever you do, don’t mention the other thread – I’m lying 8th and he’s 22 slots behind me.  Laugh
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