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17 Sep 19 01:59
Date Joined: 28 May 02
| Topic/replies: 3,965 | Blogger: andyl's blog
Been a long time since I seriously posted "tips" or betting recommendations on the forum...but as from tomorrow (I mean today) i'm gonna tip 2 horses each day which I think will go genuinely close each day. Plus if there is a real shortie i don't think will or can win i will post a lay recommendation. I must stress i'm doing this for my own benefit not to try and pretend i know something i don't so invariably i will rely on the formbook for my reasoning. I was a pro in running player for many years and i'm now looking at the form book nowadays.

Please don't ridicule. I don't give a toss what the trolls on here think. I know my stuff and i'm just here to try and help the genuine people earn a few quid if I can great as times are hard. Not telling anyone to back these just to consider them.

So here goes ladies and gents....

Today, is a pretty poor grade of racehorse /track and so bets should be kept to low stakes if you are playing but I do feel there are a couple of decent betting opportunities...Both run at Redcar which isn't a particularly fav track of mine because the quality of horse isn't usually great but the races are usually fairly run....

Bet 1....Lord of the Alps 13-8/7-4 win 230 Redcar

Personally, this appears, at first glance, quite a short price for a horse that has had 4 runs as a 2year old and finished 3232 beaten all 4 runs. Usually the alarm bells are ringing when one has form figures like that and you should give it a timeform squiggle. Last time out, at my local track Beverley, the horse pulled quite hard and was keen but travelled powerfully and came there swinging.....hit the front too song and got mowed down inside the final furlong....its previous exertions...probably taking their toll. Well tipped up by the form experts and well backed that day (I backed it also) I couldn't believe it had been beat.

Looking at the horses form with other horses bears close scrutiny....while g got gabrial (the horse that beat it lto) has done little to frank the form the horses that have beat it have all shown strong form at a higher level....

Tell me al, while beaten at 8-15 nto, still ran a solid race and hariboux which beat it 3l has since gone on to win a nice race at Newmarket and finished 2nd in a strong looking race last week at Donny. The 5th escape proof won an ok race at Leicester lto beating Wycliff the hot fav, which then came out and won the other day so the form of the race has a strong look to it.

The opposition, to be honest, from what I can see look moderate to put it bluntly. Light the fuse, looks the main and probably only danger having a run a nice race behind Good Job Power but I doubt the form is as strong as Lord of the Alps form.

Imo...the track will suit Lord of the Alps better than Beverley. Joe again takes the ride and I fancy him to lie prominent or lead before pressing the go button at the 1 1'2f pole and quicken decisively and put the horses superior speed to put the race to bed. I expect nothing more than an easy victory with light the fuse running a brave race to finish 2nd. The rest I don't think are good enough. I expect Lord of the Alps to be well backed tomorrow and win cosily.

Bet 2 - Give it Some Teddy strong eway 430 Redcar 11-2/6-1

More of a sporting value bet this one but solid imo nonetheless. Very little to choose between my selection and the horse which just beat it close home lto the fav Star Shield which I forecast to be a huge danger again. However, I don't believe there should be such a price discrepancy 11-4 vs 11-2 for only A NECK beating.

24 days ago these two rang gallant races in defeat over the C & D and give it some teddy weakened late on just been nabbed for 2nd by star shield. While the fav clearly has to be respected I cannot really split them and being 1ib better of for a neck beating I marginally favout give it some teddy to gain his revenge.

What swings the bet for me though is give it some teddy has a slightly better draw in 6 and more importantly its run 7 times over the course winning 3 times and placing twice more which is pretty damn good...2 wins 2 places over c and d.

Last time out my selection again ran a blinder finishing 4th in quite a good race at York not beaten far. Proven over track, distance and on going is a big bonus and the horse also has winning form at this time of year. My only concern is the lack of a recent win but I believe the horse is well enough handicapped and primed to run another big race. Dawaaleeb would have a reasonable chance (beaten only a shhd by give it some teddy last year) as would casement but I believe the solid horse at a working man's price is give it some teddy.

11-2 represents decent value (currently 8 on betfair)….and a solid run looks assured. With luck in running and a truly run race I can see this one going very very close indeed.
today. Loks a good eway bet to me.

Good luck if you play.

Be lucky.

Back tomorrow to read all the abuse should both get stuffed. These are my fancies not Hugh Taylor's, Simon Rowland's, Tony Calvin's, Tom Segals…..or any other expert. It's my local track tomorrow so hopefully I can pick a couple of horses to lash home over the Westwood.
Pause Switch to Standard View 2 for tomorrow - 1 shortie and 1 each...
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Report andyl September 17, 2019 2:08 AM BST
As well as an each way bet on teddy a small reverse forecast with star shield and possibly dawaleeb/casement may prove fruitful just in case he gets chinned. However, i'll stick to each way for this bet. Like I said, Star Shield is solid enough too and has a solid c and d record also but I do fancy teddy to win this revenge match. Heres hoping. Duran Fentiman knows the horse well and will do for me.
Report andyl September 17, 2019 2:17 AM BST
Sorry I also meant to say that the key to lord of the alps is getting the horse to settle. In running punters will be able to see that but if this horse settles and the horse doesn't hit the front too soon....I expect the horse to win  going away....that's it...imo the horse is better than its last run and mark. It's a nice enough horse and should lose its maiden tag here providing joe settles the horse nicely.
Report roder2 September 17, 2019 2:24 AM BST
andyl- are you still betting inrunning?
Report andyl September 17, 2019 2:35 AM BST
Report roder2 September 17, 2019 2:45 AM BST
well good luck later today. IRV e/w for me 4.00pm Redcar
Report Guernsey Sunbed September 17, 2019 6:16 AM BST
Thanks Andy1

Looking forward to following your results.

Report mondeoboxerblue September 17, 2019 6:19 AM BST
Good luck Andy +++++++++
Report markwin September 17, 2019 7:09 AM BST
great post ,
good luck ,
Report Charlton2005 September 17, 2019 7:43 AM BST
A thread to rival the other Andy

Report mymumsfinethankyou September 17, 2019 7:44 AM BST
post ya bets shafter
Report tanglefoot September 17, 2019 9:45 AM BST
Interesting reading, not easy to put up early selections,often the last fifteen minutes before the off time of a race is critical,gl.
Report tanglefoot September 17, 2019 9:55 AM BST
Another interesting idea is to see how selections do playing them 20% win,80% in 2TBP market,as so many good selection get chinned and run second.
Report PHS September 17, 2019 9:59 AM BST

Sep 17, 2019 -- 7:09AM, markwin wrote:

great post ,good luck ,

..except for the time of the 2nd selection's race, which is 16:00 not 16:30

Report elise September 17, 2019 10:24 AM BST
andy, will there be any squirrels or other rat type animal introduced onto the threads or is this a vermin free version?
Report mymumsfinethankyou September 17, 2019 10:38 AM BST
copy and paste shafter,,easy as pie .
Report mymumsfinethankyou September 17, 2019 10:39 AM BST
he is the only vermin here,,
Report Virgin September 17, 2019 11:03 AM BST
Hugh's followed in Shocked

gl AndyL
Report MJK September 17, 2019 2:34 PM BST
Drift and ran accordingly. Johnston is filth.
Report Charlton2005 September 17, 2019 4:03 PM BST
Report stewarts rise September 17, 2019 4:03 PM BST
Well done with the Teddy!Grin
Report 23nights September 17, 2019 4:04 PM BST
vwd andyl
Report tanglefoot September 17, 2019 4:07 PM BST
Somebody knew,they can now buy a few teddies Grin
Report PHS September 17, 2019 4:13 PM BST
WD Andy.

Not much of a price for such a competitive race and not much money for the winner either. I'd say they've been keeping a bit back with Teddy. Dawaaleeb seems to have regressed since they met last October.
Report Virgin September 17, 2019 4:15 PM BST
Wd AndyL Cool
Report 1stpost September 17, 2019 4:28 PM BST
well done AndyL...ExcitedCool
Report andyl September 17, 2019 4:32 PM BST
Well 1/2 and a profitable start. Cannot believe how badly lord of alps ran today it was in trouble well over 2f out and folded tamely...most disappointing to say the least...but thankfully give it some teddy ran its usual solid redcar race to reverse the form with the main danger star shield just as I envisaged.

Something must have been amiss today with lord of alps and it will be interesting to see what is said in the post race comments but imo its one to swerve now after that performance.

Have looked at tomorrows Beverley card and there are 2 or 3 real shorties that really ought to win but the objective of this thread is not to tip really short. I quite like the look of one other horse in the sprint but sadly it's only 7 runners so am likely to give it amiss. Sandown is a better card and I will be back tomorrow with another posting.
Report FOYLESWAR September 17, 2019 4:58 PM BST
well done and good luck ,by the way why no in running anymore ?
Report Willie Shafter. September 17, 2019 6:14 PM BST
wd willie.
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