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THE EQUALISER
25 May 19 23:41
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Date Joined: 16 Jul 01
| Topic/replies: 342 | Blogger: THE EQUALISER's blog
Hi Guys,

I will be posting up a daly Trixie for £4 each day which should be paid for by either a "win" bet(s)or "lay" bet.

The starting bank is £500 and the maximum outlay/liability for any one day is 2%; i.e. £10 initially.

If profits grow then staking/liabilty will be adjusted at cumulative betting bank intervals of £100 e.g. £600 = £12; £700 = £14 etc. etc.  If a big win suddenly occurs I may be reluctant to increase staking/liability so sharply.

I hate paper trading so this project gives me an incentive to try out my strategies without risking too much cash and at the same time ensuring that I maintain a strict discipline over my money management.

I do hope that other people are interested but if not then I am quite happy to forge ahead regardless.

The Equaliser

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Replies: 415
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 25 May 19 23:51
Good luck Edward

PS I thought you were brilliant in The Wicker Man
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 25 May 19 23:53
Will these be available through the PuntHub platform?
By:
chavman
When: 25 May 19 23:55
better in the equaliser
By:
chavman
When: 25 May 19 23:57
CryCryi got it all wrong
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 25 May 19 23:57
I new where you was going wiv it.
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 25 May 19 23:58
You believe him to be Denzil Washington.
By:
chavman
When: 26 May 19 00:32
he is a lot of things,but no denzil washington
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 26 May 19 11:36
Hi Guys,

The prices are too skinny for me in UK racing today for me to selecta Trixie today; I like to choose my selections from open races with favourites prices starting from at least 3/1 upwards.

I don't place bets inthe Irish markets either.

As explained I try to find other bets to pay for my Trixie bets.  Whilst I will not be placing a Trixie bet today this may be a good opportunity to explain my staking strategy for "Lay" bets.

I use a "target" method for my staking hence the idea is to stake money in proportion to the odds on offer.  This seems to me to be the safest option when laying horses in a race.  For example, if I were to limit my liabilty to £10 accross the board and I were to place a lay bet on a 2/1 shot = (3.00) then £10/3= £3.33.  Should the horse win the race I lose £6.66 and if it should lose I would win £3.33 less 5% commission = £3.16.  If the horse has a true 33.3% chance of winning then sure I may lose £6.66 should it win but I should also win 2 x £3.33 = £6.66 (less £0.34p commission in the long run so as to mitigate my losses. 

One important note that I do wish to make is that if I lay a horse at odds on (I will lay a horse down to 1.70 sometimes) then one cannot just divide the set liability of say £10 by 1.70 and place a bet
This amount would be £5.88.  One has to subtact £5.88 from £10 and stake £4.12 to compensate for the horse being odds on.

Anyway, I can be quite bold with my lay bets so today I will place a lay bet on Solomon Grey in the 2.55 at Uttoxeter.  Its current lay price is 1.93 but I have requested £4.21 @ 1.70 so as to realise £4.00 with a liability of £2.95 should the horse win.  This is a Skelton horse that is carying a 6lbs (don't know why it isn't 7lbs) penalty and is up against what appears to be two live contenders.  I have set the bet to get matched at "In-play" but feel that there is every chance that it will be matched before the race.

I have no fears about being £2.95 out of pocket should the horse come through and win.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 26 May 19 20:18
(1) Funny enough I was at home when the race was on.  I could have traded out for a small profit but kept the bet going as I don't want to create any confusion about my results.

Anyway first day results as follows: Trixie = NIL, Back bets = NIL and Lay bets = - 2.95.  Cumulated bank = £500- £2.95 = £497.05 C/FWD

Back tomorrow; have a good evening
By:
GLASGOWCALLING
When: 26 May 19 20:26
4 posts in 18yrs now threatening 2 in 2 days. !!  Something not right here. Happy
By:
themightymac
When: 26 May 19 20:37
He has been on a dummy run the past 18 years.
By:
leif
When: 26 May 19 20:40
Possibly lampooning some thread given the starting 'at 3/1' criterion?

Fearless though with the 'Bold' approach to risking £2.95 of one's hard-earned.

Thought provoking stuff for sure Mischief
By:
themightymac
When: 26 May 19 20:44


"LISTEN MATE, NOBODY FORCED YOU TO LAY SOLOMON GREY"!!!
By:
themightymac
When: 26 May 19 20:54
A nice Trixie for the Bank Holiday please.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 27 May 19 10:45
I'm not so sure about lamppooning any threads regarding trying to restrict my minimum price of 3/1 in relation to my Trixie bets.  All I am doing is trying to back horses with a good chance of winning at decent odds.  I am on a bit of a mission with regard to my Lay bets; I find it appaling that so called professional "laying" services seem not to have the wherewithal to find vulnerability within the ranks of the shorter priced horses.  I also disagree with them not allowing for the odds on offer and just sticking say to somethinmg like £100 level stakes on their selections whether their selections are 3/1 or 10/1.  I may fall on my face in seeking out value with the shorter priced horses in the long run but at least I would have tried.  At the moment I am working to a 2% liability with my series of bets which means £10 regarding a £500 bank.  Since I like to leave room to pay for a Trixie my maximum for back bets is £6 and on the "lay" side £4.21 @ 2.42 = £4 for a £5.98 liability.  I may stake more than £10 on anyone day but will stickk to the principles outlined above.

Anyway, my Trixie today is 1.45 Leicester Candelisa(9/2), 5.05 Cartmel Stage One(3/1) and 5.25 Windsor Lethal Missile(7/2).  The potential win for a £4 stake is £163.75.

My lay bets are: 2.05 Huntingdon Nimby £4.21 @ 1.7 currenty 1.85 so not matched yet) and 3.40 Windsor Celtic Manor £4.21 @ 1.80 currently 1.98 so not matched yet.

I am trying to get a wicked price of 13.5 for Juneau in the 4.45 at Redcar for a stake of £2.  Last night it was trading at 8.8 and right now is trading at 9.6.  Hence, I would have been a mug to take the 8.8.  If I am lucky enough to get the priced matched I will trade it out for a £4 gain for a free bet.

I couldn't care less if none of my prices get matched on either my lay or win bets.  I am seeking "value" with my staking so if a price doesn't get matched then I would rather not take the bet.

Have a good day whatever happens; I know I will.


Ps. Edward Woodward's character in Callan was my favourite, but I guess we don't see many hired assasins with a conscience on the big or small screen these days.
By:
themightymac
When: 27 May 19 16:33
Callan was one of the greatest tv shows ever made.

Good luck with last two in Trixie.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 28 May 19 10:24
The Trixie yesterday had one winner, one third and an appaling run by Stage One.

I obviously was asking too much to get Juneau matched at 13.5; I did see it offered at 11.0 near the off.  It was sent off at 5/1 and I watched it get matched at 2.02 before it faltered in the final furlong.  My lay bets both won which means I lost

The state of my original £500 bank is now £486.73 with Trixies at -£4.00, Lay bets (£9.27), Back bets £0.00

Today's Trixie details are as follows: 3.20 Redcar (4). Victoriano 7/2, 4.50 Redcar (4) Boundary Lane 7/2 and 5.45 Ayr (9) Elite Icon 9/2, Stake £4 and potential return £181.12

I couldn't find any short priced favourites with at least two potential main live conetnders today so I am not playing the "lay" game today.

I have decided to put in a back "bet" on Boundry Lane in the 4.50 at Redcar.  I have requested odds of 5.4 and placed a stake of £3.  It is currently trading at 4.9 so it doesn't have to stretch too far.  Should the price get matched I will then put in a lay bet so as to win £4 for a free bet.  It looks to be a good "back to lay" proposition.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 29 May 19 11:34
What a strange race Victoriano ran yesterday; I saw it being offered at 25.0 towards the end of the race before coming through to win.  The "fountain of all knowledge" i.e. the market decided that Boundary Lane was a sure fired prospect so I did not get my 5.4 matched on it. Just as well because nobody asked the horse about it feeling a bit unsteady on its feet as it stumbled out of the gate and was slowly away instead of tearing off in front.  It was only beaten 1 and 1/4 lengths in the end so I was unlucky notto get a double in.  Serena Brotheton could not get anything out of Elite Icon

Original Bank of £500 is now £482.73 with Trixies -£8 and Lay bets -£9.27, Back bets nil

It looks tough going today with a lot of low grade racing for my Trixie prospects; I even thought that I may have to look at the evening races.  I seem to have more lay bet prospects than winning horse.

However, I have decided to put up a Trixi bet.  2.40 Beverley (9) Abushama 7/1, 4.55 Hamilton (9) Euro Implosion 11/4 and 5.25 Hamilton (11) Bronze Beau 9/2 = £4 stake and a potential return of £259.60

I haven't made the time to sift through the "lay" prospects yet but have instead backed Abushama for £3 at 8.6.  I set a "lay" bet for £3 at 7.0 which surprisingly has already been matched.  This means that I now have a "free" bet with a chance of winning £4.56 should it win. Grin
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 30 May 19 12:11
Another blank day for my Trixie; I was a bit unlucky with Abushama not to recover £4.56 as it was only beaten a neck.  Don't know why Bronze Beau drifted to 12/1

Original Bank £500 is now £478.73 with Trixies -£12, Lay bets at £-9.27 and Back bets = nil

Today's Trixie is 3.20 Yarmouth Parknacilla 5/1, 3.40 Wetherby Markarzi 3/1 and 5.50 Wetherby Dewpond 7/2; £4 stake and a potential return of £177.00

I don't have a "Lay" or "Back" bet yet.  I was going to back Parknacilla at good odds and lay it off for a £4 profit but I don't think I will get the odds so I'm leaving it.  I am hoping that with Robert Havlin aboard that it will not miss the break this time and beat Ignatious as it alrweady has done so in the past with trouble at the start and in-running.

Incidentally, if I find a "back" or "lay bet" and post it up here BEFORE race time it will count towards my results; if I do anything else with my betting it doesn't count.

Have a good day; I know I will.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 31 May 19 12:19
Another blank day with Markazi getting close to get 2nd by a neck at 11/4.

I have c0ontrated my Trixe today at Carlisle which has Heavy Ground.  I have left Epsom alone.

Original bank £500 now £474.73 Trixies - £16; Lay bets - £9.27, Back bets = Nil

1.40 Carlisle (1) Pavers Pride 5/1, 2.15 (10) Lexikon 9/2 and 2.50 (9) Accross The Sea 4/1 = potential return £255.48

If I get nothing on teh first two I may come back with a back to lay bet later.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 01 Jun 19 12:49
Nothing ran well at Carlisle yesterday, therefore a nil return.

Original Bank £500 now stands at £470.73 with =£20 on Trixie and -£9.27 on Lay bets

Today's Trixie is 2.35Epsom (3) Anna Nerium 4/1, 3.25 Muss(6)Just Benjamin 9/2 and 4.30 Epsom (3) Broome 6/1 = possible retunr £319 for a £4 stake.  Whilst one can never exclude any of Auden O'Brien's horses when they run against each other I would be very surpised if Donnacha O'Brien has chosen the wrong horse to ride in the Derby.

I have made an early doors "Back to Lay" bet in the 2.00 at Epsom.  I have backed (3) Victory Command for £2 at 13.00 which has been matched.  I have put in a lay bet for £2 at 10.5 in-running if neceesary to gain £4.75 for a free bet.  I will be very disappointed if if the horse cannot run to a price of 10.5 at some stage either pre-race or in-running.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 02 Jun 19 11:06
I was one length away from at least an extra £200 yesterday and being smothered in glory. Having got the first two in on my Trixie it was down to Broome to deliver in the Derby.  I didn't know that the horse plays up in the stalls, possibly why they put it in last.  Anyway this did not help its cause as it was slowly away.  Funny enough it seemd to be coming again at the end of the race so maybe it will be a good one for the St Leger.  I am glad that Seamie Hefferman won for Aiden O'Brien, perhaps I should have listened to Ed Chambers on Sky Sports who frequengtly tips the big race winners.

At least I got a double in which was £30.25 less £4 = £26.25. Sonce I will be puting up a "Back to Lay" bet instead of a "lay" bet in future I have decided to offset my £9.27 accumulated "Lay"loss balance against the Trixie balance.  This means that my original balance of £500 now stands at £496.98 with -£3.02 on Trixies and nil on "back to Lay" bets.

My "back to lay bet" did get matched in-running yesterday and funny enough Mark Johnston didn't get the winner with any of his three runners.

I have just realised that I have made a mistake in staking on my "Back to lay" bet today.  I put £2 on it and it should have been £3.  This is because I quite often try to get a reduced price by puting in a larger stake to begin with in the hope of getting the lay price matched before the off.  Because I trade on Betfair it means that I would have to put another £2 on the selection at reduced odds and then trade out.  This being so I will take a chance of losing £2 instead of £4.

With only two UK meetings today I ddn't think I would find a Trixie bet but as luck would have it I have.

This is as follows: 3.20 Nott (4) Mayfair Spirit 4/1, 4.10 Fakenham (4) Fifty shades 7/2 and 4.30 Nottingham (6) Burford Brown 5/1.  This has a potential return of £214.50 for a £4 stake.

Mayfair Spirit looked too big at 7.40 on Betfair last night and I placed £2 on it and it got matched.  As stated above I should have put £3 on it.  Never mind, I put in a "lay" bet of £2 at 5.2 so as to recover £4.18 should it get matched in running (oddly enough sports book is offering 4/1 however it is trading at 6.8 on Betfair)

Have a good day, I know I will
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 02 Jun 19 14:47
Just for the record I have cashed out on my "back to lay" bet today.  This means that I will win £0.4 or £0.36 should Mayfair Spirit lose.  As mentioned before I should have placed £3 (max £4) on the horse last night.  I know this seems trivial but I like to correct mistakes when I make them.  It is of course possible for me to find another "Back to Lay" bet later if my Trixie goes pear shaped.  And, of course I will advise this prior to the off if I do.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 03 Jun 19 12:46
No joy yesterday and only £0.36 gained on Mayfair Spirit.

Original Bank £500 less -£7.02 on Trixies and plus £0.36 on back to lay bets.

Todays Trixie is all at Thirsk.  3.15 (12) Someone Exciting, 4.15 (1) Remember The Days and 5.15 (3) Frosted Lass = £4 stake and potential Return of £237.48

I am struggling to find a back to lay bet.  I have put in £3 on Someone Exciting at 12 but it is currently trading at 9.6 so I may have to cancel the bet before I go off to lunch.
By:
Brianinglos
When: 03 Jun 19 13:01
Good luck!
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 04 Jun 19 01:02
Many thanks Brian.  They all lost today but the point of my posts is to get "Value" from my selections over a long period of time whilst being in the driving seat over money management. If Broome had won the Derby my £500 bank would have at least increased by another £200.  In a way I would have been living off that success for quite a few months.  As I am now new to posting up my selctions I quite like the challenge of coming from behind as it were to make an impact.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 04 Jun 19 12:46
No joy again yesterday with my Trixie.  I am forever fascinated by the workings of the market forces.  I didn't get my back to lay bet matched at 12 as the available price of 9.6 on Something Exciting got smashed and it ended up being favourite at 5/1;finished 11th beaten 6 1/4 lengths.  Another horse of mine Frosted Lass was trading at around 4.0 in the morning and then went past 5.5 in the run up to the race; it finished 5th at 4/1 beaten 4 lengths.  Hence, the market got it wrong in the first instance and right in the second. Whilst we are all are affected by market moves I am not so sure that we can overly depend on them.

Original bank £500 less £11.02 on Trixies and £0.36 on back/lay bets = £489.34 cumulative balance.

My Trixie today is all at Bangor.  2.00 (1) Dounyapour, 3.30 (1) Steel Wave and 5.50 Newc (2) Life Knowledge = £4 stake with a potential £98.94 The prices are a bit skinny for my liking but my other fancies Delface in the 3.00 and Handy Hollow in the 4.00 do not seem to be getting good market support.

I have put in a Back to Lay bet on Handy Hollow for £3 at 10.5 in the 4.00 Bangor (Currently trading at 7.6) so I won't hold my breath in the hope that the price will get matched.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 04 Jun 19 14:37
Sorry, two selections at Bsngor (where the bets racing is today; Class 4 and one at Newcastle
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 04 Jun 19 18:50
Hi Guys, I have cashed out for £4.05 on my Trixie; apologies to all my fans but after all I am the Equaliser
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 05 Jun 19 01:17
I think it will be easier for me to post up results in the evening and Trixie bets late morning from now on.

I had one winner today which was Steel Wave at 3/1.  I was feeling a bit miffed by not including Handy Hollow in my Trixie so when it came to the 3rd leg of the Trixie I decided to cash out for £4.14 when I had the oportunity. The 5.50 at Newcastle was a Claas 6 Handicap race with 14 runners whereas my selections at Bangor were in class 4 races.  Hence a 14p profit on the day for the Trixie.  As you may have guessed I didn't get my back to lay bet matched on Handy Hollow. Also, I am thinking of keeping a log of the sequences on my Trixies that may be useful.  It would read LLLLLDLLC (where D stands for Double and C stands for Cash out.  "T" when it happens would stand for Treble.  My Trixie balance stands at -£1.61 so that's not bad going for 7 losses, a double and a cash out is it? I have moved the £9.27 Lay loss on to the back/lay side so as not to distort my Trixie account.

Hence; Original bank £500 less (£1.61) Trixies and (£8.91) Back/Lay bets = £489.48 balance carried forward.

Bit of a mixed bag of races tomorrrow; hopefully the weather will not play havoc with finding selections.
By:
casemoney
When: 05 Jun 19 01:42
Plain
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 05 Jun 19 12:07
TODAYS TRIXIE

3.0 N Abb (2) Passing Call (5/2);4.00 Font (3) Not A Role Model 3/1 and 5.10 N Abb (6) Inspireus 5/1 = £4 staked with potential return of £143.00

I don't have a back to lay bet yet but will let but will let everyone know if I find one.

Have a good day, I know I will
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 05 Jun 19 23:21
TRIXIE RESULT UPDATE

One winner and one second beaten by 3/4 length both at cramped odds.  No points scored today.

Original Bank £500 less £5.61 Trixies and £8.91 other = £485.48 Carried Forward.
By:
the old nanny ;-)
When: 05 Jun 19 23:22
Plain
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 06 Jun 19 00:32
I haven't been around this Forum very long so I don't have a clue why this is the second time I have received a Plain smiley; please tell me in basic Enghlish words if you both you guys feel I am doing something wrong?

I am not a mind reader. Confused
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 06 Jun 19 12:17
TODAY'S TRIXIE

3.20 Ripon (5) Aiya 5/2, 4.0 Ham (8) Vive La difference 7/2, and 4.10 Hayd (1) Youkan 7/2 = £4 stake with a potential return of £122.60

I have put in aback/lay bet of £3 on Zig Zag Zyggy at 11.50 4.30 Ham (currently 9.8); this can cook all day.  If matched I will lay £3 at £10 to recoup £4.27 if it wins.

Have a good day, I know I will
By:
Brianinglos
When: 06 Jun 19 12:57
Good luck.
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 06 Jun 19 14:57
Many Thanks
By:
THE EQUALISER
When: 06 Jun 19 15:04
I couldn't get 11.5 for Zig Zag Zyggy and since I have to go out soon I settled for £3 at 11.00 This means I have put in a £3 Lay bet in running at 9.4 which would produce £4.56 if it wins.  It also means that I am seeking a 5 clicks shortening in price as opposed to 3. I will see how it gets on
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