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Whippin Piccadilly
19 Feb 19 15:27
Date Joined: 02 Mar 07
| Topic/replies: 3,799 | Blogger: Whippin Piccadilly's blog
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Pause Switch to Standard View Cyrname now rated 3lb better than Altior
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Report FOYLESWAR February 19, 2019 4:14 PM GMT
altior does enough to get the job done but that turn of foot inherited from his old man is a potent weapon and he prob has a fair bit more in the locker .would love to see these 2 in a race though ,punchestown ?
Report Dr Crippen February 19, 2019 4:15 PM GMT
They're not racing against the clock.
Report Dr Crippen February 19, 2019 4:31 PM GMT
Wins by long distances are always suspicious, and that was over 2miles 5 furlongs not the minimum trip.

But what else can the handicapper do when they win like that in a Grade 1 worth £85,000 to the winner?

They're unlikely to meet given the differences in distance.
Report 1st time poster February 19, 2019 4:34 PM GMT
next years king George, Wink
Report asparagus February 19, 2019 4:39 PM GMT
End of the season at Sandown a possibility too. Anyone want to lay me evens Altior in a match bet! Ludicrous ratings. BHA handicapper dreaming if he thinks the others were anywhere close to their best form.
Report Movewiththetimes February 19, 2019 4:42 PM GMT
I was at Ascot very impressive bet they not far wrong imo
Report equine flew February 19, 2019 4:44 PM GMT
Over what trip Asparagus?

2 miles
2 miles 4 furlongs
3 miles

Who would be fav over each?
Report sewter lives again February 19, 2019 5:02 PM GMT
no story ratings gained over different distances
Report asparagus February 19, 2019 5:15 PM GMT
The possible clash is over 2m. The race Altior has won for the last 2 seasons. Nicholls says it's under consideration. I'd make Altior fav over any trip, on any ground against Cyrname. The only way they could be close in the market is if the race was at Ascot over 2m4f+ but everything about Altior says he'd be even better over 2m4f.
Cyrname is a very good horse and a brilliant jumper but it's an absolute insult by the handicapper to give him a higher rating than Altior.
Report equine flew February 19, 2019 5:23 PM GMT
You have to consider the two mile division has been god damn awful for last 3 years.  Other than UDS, has he beaten another decent horse.  It has been fox Norton, Politologue, Speicial Tiara, etc, indeed the same horses Cyrname beat even more convincing on Saturday.

Agree it looks an insult based on 19 unbeaten and string of grade 1s, but on the actual figures it is probably right.
Report The Headmaster February 19, 2019 5:28 PM GMT
Are we seriously saying handicappers should suppress their Chase rating file at 2.5m+ until they can get Altior on a higher number?
Report EVILROYSLADE February 19, 2019 5:30 PM GMT
Altior would eat it , over any trip on any course.
Report differentdrum February 19, 2019 5:43 PM GMT
I think Cyrname deserves a high rating but it is based on two performances at the same track. They don't even want to run the horse left handed. Looking at the wider picture until Cyrname does a lot more away from Ascot then you have to rate Altior the better horse, by a margin.
Report duffy February 19, 2019 5:44 PM GMT
Nicky Henderson currently penning a letter to the BHA asking if next years Victor Chandler can revert back to a handicap...yes I know it's only 2 miles.
Report glentoby February 19, 2019 5:47 PM GMT
Agree with evilroy,the handicapper must have been on the gin to come up with a figure like that even though the time was ok and visually impressive.He will never be gifted a lead like that again and was reminiscent of the Ascot winner on the flat who's name evades me as I type,think SMS trained it?

The point I am making is that he was rated on that one run which was a bit of a fluke.I will eat my words if Cyrname runs within 10lb of his new rating in future especially if he comes up against Altior who imo will break him.
Report FOYLESWAR February 19, 2019 6:01 PM GMT
Report The Headmaster February 19, 2019 6:04 PM GMT
I agree with one or two others in that you could actually argue the handicapper has shown some restraint.  Every other horse that ran in the race makes Cyrname a 180+.

To all the Altior fans, may I ask what number you would give Cyrname on Saturday's run?  Quite noticeable that no-one's had a go yet.
Report glentoby February 19, 2019 6:09 PM GMT
Thanks Foyles,that is the one.
Report impossible123 February 19, 2019 6:09 PM GMT
It beggars belief. I cannot wait for a clash between Altior and Cyrname with the latter starting as fav. What a giveaway, if so. Until these two horses compete against each other I'd always have Altior infront; the superior rating for Cyrname is meaningless unless he's run against Altior.
Report sixtwosix February 19, 2019 6:13 PM GMT
From the idiots who gave you the 2017 Betfair Chase handicap mark.
Report equine flew February 19, 2019 6:14 PM GMT
Not sure you will get an answer Theheadmaster
Report glentoby February 19, 2019 6:18 PM GMT
The headmaster you should go back to Uni and study maths and/or physioligy.....only messing but the fact is those in behind were no world beaters and the runner up was no more than a horse with potential and a hold up horse at that,always likely to be caught out by the fractions set in any race.
Report bustino February 19, 2019 6:20 PM GMT
find it hard to understand why nichols isnt running at chet.......would be near fav for ryanair.....could switvh politique to 2m and blaze off in front hes never been one to wrap his horses in cottonwool unless he had politique under cooked on sat and will be diff horse at chet.......if politique ran to his rating sat it de values king george form greatly.

even if cyrname comes up shorte at chetleham he has all the time in the world to recover for punchestown........hard to understand as trainers championship means so much to nichols where henderson is more interested in winning true grade 1 races abit like de sousa vs ryan moore with flat jockeys championship
Report Movewiththetimes February 19, 2019 6:21 PM GMT
Harbinger won King George by 11 lengths and broke Grundy's track record Crazy was short priced fav for The Arc when broke a leg on the gallops, at the time he was rated the best flat horse in the world.
Report Barton Bank February 19, 2019 6:22 PM GMT
I think that every other horse in the race has run below his best. But in fairness to the BHA they have been rated as having done so. I do think that in general the levels of BHA handicap marks are higher than they used to be and a 160+ rating is nowhere near as hard to attain/be given as it used to be. I would have Altior rated higher than Cyrname myself albeit not by a huge amount. In the context of the general level of ratings I'd have Altior rated higher based on his Champion Chase thrashing of Min and co.
Report sixtwosix February 19, 2019 6:22 PM GMT
Two runs back Altior beat mudlark Un De Sceaux in the Tingle Creek.
Two runs back Cyrname was 7th ,yes 7th to Caid Du Lin .......
Report Barton Bank February 19, 2019 6:27 PM GMT
Cyrname appears dependent on both being able to dominate and best on a right-handed track. Given those exact conditions he looks very good indeed. I wouldn't be backing him to beat Altior though.
Report glentoby February 19, 2019 6:27 PM GMT
No need to say anymore,sixtwosix has it in the bag.
Report EVILROYSLADE February 19, 2019 6:29 PM GMT
Leonardo Da Vinci, Glentoby?
Report EVILROYSLADE February 19, 2019 6:35 PM GMT
Sorry, that was Peter Walwyn's. Proclaimed a world beater and flopped afterwards. I need a drink!
Report equine flew February 19, 2019 6:43 PM GMT
Glentoby, the horses in behind Cyrname are the same horses Altior beats over and over again.

sixtwosix, Cyrname was a 6yo at the start of this season and has every right to significantly improve
Report mmmalushka February 19, 2019 6:51 PM GMT
Cyrname surely at least deserved that rating for that performance,lets hope they dont dodge each other later in the season.
Report sewter lives again February 19, 2019 7:15 PM GMT
has Altior run over 2m 5f to gain a rating at that distance?
Report impossible123 February 19, 2019 7:24 PM GMT
Altior might be going for the Melling Chase at Aintree post Cheltenham and prior to a tilt in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.
Report the bloob February 19, 2019 7:36 PM GMT
the rating is fair, thrashed them on Saturday without breaking sweat, one of the best performances of the season and the jockey didn't even have to get serious
Report dunlaying February 19, 2019 7:37 PM GMT
On that run he seems to be at least the equal of Altior . Time will tell .
Report glentoby February 19, 2019 7:37 PM GMT
Take that performance at face value and it will cost you.NAP
Report impossible123 February 19, 2019 7:47 PM GMT
Altior never wins by a wide margin - only what is necessary; a bit flamboyant with the occasional jumps, but delivers at the business end every time (so far).
Report dunlaying February 19, 2019 7:47 PM GMT
What figure do you put on it GT?
Report glentoby February 19, 2019 7:54 PM GMT
Forgetting the handicapper and the visual sight and considering those behind an his previous.At a push I would put him around 168/169,no better.

Remember Ar Mad and his demolition at Sandown? Similar here imo?
Report lewisham ranger February 19, 2019 8:01 PM GMT
totally ludicrous however you slant it. shows that handicappers are obsessed with numbers.

if horse a beats horse b by x amount of lengths, then they purely base it on that. rather than using common sense.
Report dunlaying February 19, 2019 8:12 PM GMT
So maybe 6lb behind Altior . Fine . I have him one ahead of Altior .
Report asparagus February 19, 2019 8:18 PM GMT
Twiston Davies came back and suggested a breathing op for Politologue, a horse that was way below par in the King George too (even before stamina ebbed away), Waiting Patiently hadn't had a proper race for a year during which time he'd had problems, Fox Norton had been off for ages before his race against Altior in which Altior virtually didn't coming off the bridle in beating him easy. Charbel had also run below par the time before. It was a very good performance from Cyrname but the rating is just plain wrong. It's also pretty obvious that loads of horses are running below par at the moment and to therefore treat races cautiously from a ratings perspective.

Admittedly, part of the reason the differential between Cyrname and Altior is wrong is because they've got Altior well below what he has achieved, so it's a combination of Cyrname being overrated and Altior being underrated
Report mmmalushka February 19, 2019 8:33 PM GMT
asparagus, in which races has Altior been well underrated and by how much?
Report blackbarn February 19, 2019 9:51 PM GMT
This is a really good thread, and just what the forum is supposed to be about. Just two observations so far...

The handicapper has no axe to grind and can usually be relied upon to come up with a solid fact-based opinion, BASED ON HOW HE SEES THE EVIDENCE PUT BEFORE HIM SO FAR. They can be wrong, mind.

The handicapper will not in setting his rating take into account a horses inexperience or age (other than the obvious) or any obvious potential for improvement. This ain't Timeform ffs.

Carry on chaps
Report equine flew February 19, 2019 10:05 PM GMT
Would love to see Matt and Phil discussing this on ATR.  Great viewing it would be
Report asparagus February 19, 2019 10:10 PM GMT
mmmalushka, probably in a number of his races. Can't really be bothered to trawl through all his races and come up with exact figures because essentially they are meaningless. You can go back to the supreme novices hurdle performance which was clearly underrated right up to the performance last time where if he hadn't have been eased he'd have probably beaten Fox Norton by further than Cyrname did and over a shorter distance( where it's harder to put distance between yourself and rivals). It's just a bit laughable on all the evidence to rate Cyrname higher than Altior.
Report blackbarn February 19, 2019 10:44 PM GMT
Asparagus - you have kind of reinforced one of my points. You say "It's just a bit laughable on all the evidence to rate Cyrname higher than Altior".

I have considerable sympathy with that view BUT the point is that on "all the evidence", as he sees it, rather than you, he has done just that thing. He may be wrong but I doubt he did it for a laugh.
Report differentdrum February 20, 2019 12:40 AM GMT
I hope equine flew's comment is tongue in cheek. No fun in watching two grown men pretending to argue.
Report duffy February 20, 2019 3:20 AM GMT
Especially when one of them isn't the official handicapper any more and had nothing to do with it.Grin
Report duffy February 20, 2019 3:38 AM GMT
An example of how the ratings are bonkers is CC had been on the decline for a time but the ratings as we know come down a lot slower than they go up, in the Ascot chase in which WP beat CC, it was an emotional race with CC "apparently" rolling back the years but ultimately beaten by again an "apparent" star in the making, on the back of that win WP went from 156 up to 170!!.

CC goes on to run no race at the festival and is retired, it has to be reasonable to assume that CC's rating on which WP was judged against at Ascot was just wrong, the problem is though that the handicapper doesn't revisit things and drop him back down, consequently you get Cyrname smashing up a 170 horse when he's probably smashed up a 159 horse.
Report GAZO February 20, 2019 8:10 AM GMT
regardless of who is best and what rating he has been given shouldnt they give it a go at cheltenham,he has improved on his last two runs and noticed he didnt wear a hood for those where he did in all his other races
Report Davros February 20, 2019 8:49 AM GMT
Given the remit the handicappers have they probably have little choice to rate it the way they have.  When you have a system based on the flawed premise that the addition / subtraction of weight is equal to a certain number of lengths this sort of mangled interpretation is inevitable.
Report Davros February 20, 2019 8:50 AM GMT
Edit:  "little choice but to rate it the way they have"
Report sageform February 20, 2019 8:53 AM GMT
It comes down to whether you take the evidence of one race or a career when giving an official rating. Cyrname beat every horse apart from Top Notch and Min that is considered a candidate for the Ryanair. Politologue and Charbel have both won Graded races over 2.5 miles and Waiting Patiently beat both of those convincingly. Fox Norton is a proven Grade 1 performer. Aso is an improving handicapper rated 163. Did they all underperform. If they all ran 5lb or more below their best as the RPR suggests then Cyrname is entitled to 181. The big difference with Altior is that he only does what he is asked and even that needs encouragement from the rider so he is likely to be capable of 10lb improvement if there is any horse that could stretch him. It would be fascinating to see them race over 2.5 miles right handed with some other reliable yardsticks behind. I suspect they would both be up around 184+ with Altior coming past Cyrname in the last 100 yards.
Report sageform February 20, 2019 8:56 AM GMT
Davros, if you don't believe that weight equals lengths then how else would you rate them? You might argue that the margin of victory was exaggerated by the way that Cyrname was ridden but the next 3 home had their own private battle and I see no reason why they would all have underperformed by much.
Report Davros February 20, 2019 9:04 AM GMT
sageform:  by all means keep the rating scale the way it is - an attempt to assign a number to reflect a horse's ability / class / performance.  The problem is when this rating is built using a calculation of lengths beaten / vs horses / over a certain distance. 

We live in a country where a system is still built on the belief that 3 or 4lbs on the back of a 1100lb animal makes a difference to its performance.  Quite ridiculous really.

Do people really believe that Crystal Ocean is a better horse than Enable as the Longines rankings suggest?
Report asparagus February 20, 2019 9:42 AM GMT
To me it's pretty obvious they all underperformed at the weekend apart from Cyrname. Altior could have beaten Fox Norton as far as he wanted in January. Fox Norton is yet to prove he's the horse he was after a long absence, jumped poorly early on at the weekend and the trip probably stretches him. Couldn't have him as running within a stone of his best, probably more. Waiting Patiently had had a very tricky preparation, having problems since his last completion and having been brought down relatively early at Kempton proving nothing. Politologue had been well beaten last time and Twiston Davies came back and suggested it was struggling with its breathing. Charbel had run below par at Kempton.
Report kkkatt February 20, 2019 10:27 AM GMT
I wonder how many of those in behind had their vaccinations updated the week before.
Report asparagus February 20, 2019 10:48 AM GMT
kkkatt, at least one that i know of.
Report unclepuncle February 20, 2019 10:55 AM GMT
It's just like the Bristol de Mai at Haydock thing all over again. Looks unbeatable every time but can never back it up anywhere else.
Report Dr Crippen February 20, 2019 11:03 AM GMT
Davros throws the whole racing structure into question with his dismissal of weight affecting horses' performances.

Which is interesting after the racing authorities have probably had over a century to think about it.

If the present level of weight penalties didn't work, they simply increase them until it was shown that they did.

I hope that puts this issue about the effects of weight to bed.
Report salmon spray February 20, 2019 11:11 AM GMT
Look at Turtle Island's Irish 2000 Gns and try and tell me he wasn't a better horse than Frankel   Mischief
Report Davros February 20, 2019 11:25 AM GMT
Yet a much larger racing program in a different jurisdiction (USA) is not really a weight-based structure at all.

The weight system works to a certain degree - but for a slightly different reason.  The changing handicap ratings assigned to horses forces successful horses into higher class races and less successful horses into lower class races - where horses are racing against faster, better quality animals or the opposite respectively.

You could just as easily clean things up by dividing classes into rating bands and giving each horse a class band rating only and moving it through the classes based on performance.  Better than having wide weight ranges with the hope that the weight concessions slow horses down enough to run alongside their inferiors.

There are so many logical inconsistencies in fiddling with lbs here and there it defies belief.  A 2 mile winner on the flat wins by 3 lengths.  So you increase what it carries by 3lbs and they finish together?  What happens in a slowly run race - does the weight have less effect.  Soft ground more?  What about the size or maturity of the horse?  Why do higher weighted horses win more than their fair share of races?

Of all the reasons our theoretical 2 miler wins (attitude, positioning, turn of foot, fitness, suitability to conditions, ride, trainer prep, mood etc) we are saying that 3lbs will make any difference?

I weigh 170 lbs.  That's less than 1/6th of a horse.  So if you put 500 gms on my back it would make a difference to the speed I ran?  Laughable.

Can anyone explain my earlier point?  How, with any rational system, can Crystal Ocean be a higher-rated horse than Enable?
Report Dr Crippen February 20, 2019 11:28 AM GMT
unclepuncle, Bristol de Mai has won 10 races of which 6 have not been at Haydock.

True his biggest wins have been at Haydock, but his below par performances after two of those wins simply suggests he isn't very consistent at this level.

The first myth that he needs heavy ground has already been busted, I wonder how long before the idea that he's only a Haydock horse is busted as well. Which mostly depends on his trainer and the agenda they set out for him.
Report Davros February 20, 2019 11:31 AM GMT
Sorry, I meant 8 ounces on my back.
Report Dr Crippen February 20, 2019 11:36 AM GMT
With all the drawbacks you point out in the current system employed to handicap horses Davros, I hope you find it as easy to exploit in your betting.
Report Davros February 20, 2019 11:43 AM GMT
Dr Crippen - thanks for your best wishes.  It is an obvious help with perceived value given it's against the generally held philosophy.
Significantly reducing the priority given to weight is eye-opening, speaking as someone who used to meticulously assign weight-based ratings to do my betting.
Report Rider February 20, 2019 12:08 PM GMT
Any method of assessing ability has its limitations, but slide rule handicapping is what we use here and thats mainly because its accountable and easily understood by the majority.

So the new rating is justified, for it not to be then you have to not only convince the public that all other horses under performed but also that they under performed in pretty much equal measure as the fit it tight. Added to this the time was good too.

Is he better than Altior, well of course not, Altior is far more consistent in top company and obviously unbeaten jumping. When he hated the ground in the QM and looked in trouble he suddenly found another gear, Cyrname cannot do that. We dont know quite how good Altior is but his rating just reflects what he's beaten. Its  175p.
Report wondersobright February 20, 2019 12:20 PM GMT
few people referencing the pace again I see

cobden once again outstanding on the winner, 2 races in a row he's got the fractions spot on & 2 races in a row his rivals haven't

you need to upgrade the runs of FN, WP & to a lesser extent politologue for the inefficient rides they got & if you do that then you will have the race correctly handicapped
they had done all their running chasing down the cheap lengths they had given away to cobden
from 2 out they were all absolutely spent bar the winner...classic sign of pace misjudgement

cyrname clocked a decent time because he's a really good horse running on a good surface racing evenly

for sure he's a 170+ horse but talk of 180 is absolutely laughable
Report 1st time poster February 20, 2019 12:27 PM GMT
I suppose if the ratings people had to stand on a wooden box and bet to their ratings ,we might get a different opinion, Laugh
Report Rider February 20, 2019 12:37 PM GMT
everyone knows about pace, we are reminding on tv every race, pace is irrelevant to slide rule handicapping
Report wondersobright February 20, 2019 12:40 PM GMT
pace is irrelevant to slide rule handicapping
correct...which is why its inherently flawed
Report wondersobright February 20, 2019 12:41 PM GMT
only baboons hcap races without considering how the pace has influenced the result
Report Rider February 20, 2019 12:43 PM GMT
think you are missing the point here
Report wondersobright February 20, 2019 12:51 PM GMT
rider its a false inflated rating that is the point
if people want to accept it based on flawed methodology that's cool by me, more the merrier
Report Rider February 20, 2019 12:58 PM GMT
just because people accept it based on flawed methodology doesnt mean they dont understand the circumstances under which it was achieved

as stated all methods of assessing ability have flaws, this one probably keeps the appeals committee quieter than most
Report wondersobright February 20, 2019 1:02 PM GMT
fair point
Report duffy February 20, 2019 1:42 PM GMT
What's the thinking behind why he can't now go left handed anyhow, what does he do wrong??, I assume that theory was built during the days before the headgear came off and the transformation?? Seems logical now to think that he may be a changed horse all round, surely he should be given his chance, a horse now so highly rated wants to be racing at the festival, we don't want a rating for a horse given, providing he's racing at 21f around Ascot, that's no champion.
Report Movewiththetimes February 20, 2019 2:14 PM GMT
The time was very good on ground with soft in it, would of gave any past winner a serious race with that display- rating right imo.
Report Rider March 13, 2019 3:43 PM GMT
politologue franks the formMischief
Report Whippin Piccadilly March 13, 2019 3:51 PM GMT
Politolouge was running over the right trip today. I have a theory that Altior doesn't really like Cheltenham, but like the great Champion he is, he turns up on the day and gets the job done. Why wasn't Cyrname running in the race today? Oh, yeah he has to have a Right-handed track, a flat track.....
Report cardifffc March 13, 2019 3:53 PM GMT
wp.......or you just made a burke of yourself
Report wondersobright March 13, 2019 3:54 PM GMT
stemmers going round and round in circles pmsl
Report cardifffc March 13, 2019 3:55 PM GMT
everybody wants to give altior an huge rating but how can you......this horse is not in the same league as MM or SS..........just lucky its a **** division
Report Rider March 13, 2019 3:55 PM GMT
never realised they flattened ascot ?
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 13, 2019 3:57 PM GMT
Altior must have been lucky it was a sh1t Supreme as well.......oh hold on Plain
Report cardifffc March 13, 2019 3:59 PM GMT
thought the champion chase was a CHASE
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 13, 2019 4:00 PM GMT
It is and he has won 2 now despite things now going perfect in running both times
Report cardifffc March 13, 2019 4:01 PM GMT
MM and SS put up amazing speed figures........not seen altior produce one yet........but he is still racing so you cant rule it out
Report cardifffc March 13, 2019 4:03 PM GMT
so you do know its a chase so what the f*** as his hurdles record got to do with it...........the handicapper cant give him a chase rating based on a supreme win
Report wondersobright March 13, 2019 4:04 PM GMT
same as the big bucks argument
altior will never run huge figures, he is a workmanlike monster who idles his face off in front
master minded, sprinter sacre etc were brilliant horses but in a different mould to altior
Report Whippin Piccadilly March 13, 2019 4:04 PM GMT
So you'd call Ascot an undulating track then, Rider? There was me thinking it was a galloping track. You learn something new everyday!
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 13, 2019 4:04 PM GMT
Calm down man you seem to be a seething mess, having a bad week are we ?

Altior is a proper horse who always finds a way to win, let's hope we see him and Cyrname race next year, it'll no doubt be right handed which will be more suited to Cyrname but i still think Altior will win and win handily
Report wondersobright March 13, 2019 4:05 PM GMT
plenty of evens cyrname available with me PF in the match he'll be fkin battered imo (probably 2.5 lengths!!)
Report p_r_e_m_i_e_r__f_a_n_t_a_s_y March 13, 2019 4:06 PM GMT
exactly Wonders, Altior a totally different style to those other horses named
Report Rider March 13, 2019 4:06 PM GMT
undulating and galloping are not mutually exclusive, so you have learnt something
Report cardifffc March 13, 2019 4:06 PM GMT
I don't cyrname is in the same class of MM or SS either
Report onlooker March 13, 2019 4:15 PM GMT
Quandry for the Handicapper, after toiday.

At initial 'face value' - ALTIOR not run up to it's pre-race 175.

If they want to say that it has - then ... 

Politogue would have to go up by 7 lbs - to 173 ... A lifetime best, by an additional 5 lbs

Scea Royale - would have to go up by 12 lbs - to 171 ... A lifetime best, by an additional 10 lbs

Hell's Kitchen - would have to go up by 10 lbs - to 165 ... A lifetime best, by an additional 10 lbs
Report geoff m March 13, 2019 4:20 PM GMT
Must be 3rd top rated after Tiger Rolls performanceLaughLaughLaugh
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