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cardifffc
17 Feb 19 15:08
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Date Joined: 10 Oct 03
| Topic/replies: 12,487 | Blogger: cardifffc's blog
but surely his best ever performance was his first champion win where the time beat standard ....which suggests that quicker ground suits him best
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Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:12 PM GMT
it was bordering on soft ground in his 1st champion
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:14 PM GMT
cant beat the standard on soft ground...impossible
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:14 PM GMT
wonder...........are you rodders??
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:15 PM GMT
pull up old quotes they attributed the win to ground being softer than described on the 1st day that year
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:17 PM GMT
and regardless, he's an older horse now
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:18 PM GMT
times are far more accurate to assess the going rather than a clerk of the courses opinion
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:19 PM GMT
I agree but this was trainer & jockey quotes
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:20 PM GMT
2017 they were worried ground wasn't going to be soft enough for buveur (going by the description) but when he won they said its riding softer than what they've called it
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:22 PM GMT
how is their opinion different to the COTC..........you cant argue with time..........its science
Report Ramruma February 17, 2019 3:23 PM GMT
Times are of less use at the Festival imo because the large fields and stronger pace of most races misleads the stopwatch boys into thinking the going is on the fast side, even when jockey and horse in the winners enclosure are splattered with mud.
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:24 PM GMT
whats that got to do with it...........the fact is he produced bis best performance on the quickest ground he had run on
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:25 PM GMT
ramruna........times don't lie
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:26 PM GMT
you cant beat the standard on soft ground............its IMPOSSIBLE
Report Barton Bank February 17, 2019 3:28 PM GMT
I wouldn't want to say his first Champion Hurdle win was on categorically the quickest ground he has run on but it was nowhere near soft on the time and certainly a lot quicker than for his less impressive win in the 2018 Champion. I'd be inclined to think he is better on good/good to soft than really testing based on visual impressions and my view of the level of the form though I couldn't argue with his strike rate on very testing ground.
Report mouse muldoon February 17, 2019 3:28 PM GMT
Who sets THE standard?
Report geoff m February 17, 2019 3:34 PM GMT
3m 50.90s (fast by 0.10s) hardly bordering on soft timewise is it Wonder?
Report Ramruma February 17, 2019 3:36 PM GMT
@cardiffc -- if the standard times are based on more slowly-run races, then yes they can lie or at least tell half-truths.
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:37 PM GMT

Feb 17, 2019 -- 3:26PM, cardifffc wrote:


you cant beat the standard on soft ground............its IMPOSSIBLE


if you read what I have fkin written that would help
cheers

Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:38 PM GMT
not talking about times analysis
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:39 PM GMT
I think he handles heavy but to be at his  very best he needs good or at worst g\s............his best runs confirm that
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:40 PM GMT
I think kempton showed you what will happen if its genuine good ground
Report Barton Bank February 17, 2019 3:43 PM GMT
He'd have lagged up at Kempton without the blunder though.
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:43 PM GMT
I don't think so
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:44 PM GMT
I think he was done for toe by a horse who really does want a sharp 2m on good ground
Report Barton Bank February 17, 2019 3:45 PM GMT
I would agree Verdana Blue had conditions very much in her favour but that blunder would have stopped almost any horse and he did well to recover and nearly win.
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:47 PM GMT
wonders.........that race that day at Kempton was his 2nd best racing post speed figure behind his first champion hurdle win
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:48 PM GMT
cardiff...do you understand the idea of opportunity cost?
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:50 PM GMT

Feb 17, 2019 -- 3:45PM, Barton Bank wrote:


I would agree Verdana Blue had conditions very much in her favour but that blunder would have stopped almost any horse and he did well to recover and nearly win.


VB was tenderly ridden as well

Report Barton Bank February 17, 2019 3:51 PM GMT
That's definitely true but I am not sure how relevant it is really. She isn't the sort of horse who is going to pull out a huge amount more for pressure.
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:53 PM GMT
just even pace will do
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:53 PM GMT
wonders......how do you assess soft going..........if you saw an horse beat the standard on his best ever run would you conclude he loved heavy ground??
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 3:53 PM GMT
answer my question first please
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 3:56 PM GMT
if I had the foggiest idea of what you mean I would
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 4:07 PM GMT
then may I suggest you educate yourself as it will improve your understanding of times and how you are using times to form your opinions

a proper times analysis is not just about assessing how fast a horse has run, you need to understand how time figures are arrived at
so that is ground, pace etc etc

most festival races are run at a strong pace and on good jumping ground...so given that horses have had the best opportunity to run a big time figure
take a winter trial race run on soft ground (eg the old agfa hurdle) small field run at a slow pace...the opportunity to run a big time figure is much more limited

so comparing time figures between the 2 races & making inferences from them about preferences is total folly imo
Report wondersobright February 17, 2019 4:08 PM GMT
got stuff to do now, will pick this up later
Report cardifffc February 17, 2019 4:15 PM GMT
what a load of crap....that champion hurdle was run at a fast pace and they beat standard..........what the F*** is tripping you up??....after that race because the jockeys and trainers said the ground was really soft.............did you honestly look at the next race and conclude I need to look for mud larks???????????????
Report duncan idaho February 17, 2019 5:50 PM GMT
acts on any imo
Report BFADMIN February 17, 2019 7:18 PM GMT
test
Report irishone February 17, 2019 11:47 PM GMT
Cardiff how come you promote speed ratings
As i understand it , they rely on
Report irishone February 17, 2019 11:56 PM GMT
Sorry cardiff
Not getting you .... using speed ratings
know they try to cover every variable
Like going weather etc etc
But what about the variables
You can't measure
Like your gelding getting a sniff
Of a filly in the pre parade ring
Or a spring horse on heavy ground
Or a vacc booster
Or a sh*t jockey
How do speed ratings cover these
Eventualities that most
Of these boffins know feck all about
Report irishone February 18, 2019 12:05 AM GMT
As for times dont..lie..... When does the clock st
Report irishone February 18, 2019 12:08 AM GMT
*start
Report duncan idaho February 18, 2019 7:39 AM GMT
sure all those that produce their own speed figures will jack it in now irishone has pointed out that they dont take into account vacc boosters  Plain
Report buddeliea February 18, 2019 7:43 AM GMT
Or the following.......

Like your gelding getting a sniff
Of a filly in the pre parade ring
Or a spring horse on heavy ground
Or a sh*t jockey

LaughLaugh
Report irishone February 18, 2019 8:20 AM GMT
"Scoence" ? ...my r s
Report irishone February 18, 2019 8:21 AM GMT
Science even .....ExcitedLaughLaughLaugh
Report irishone February 18, 2019 8:58 AM GMT
If you are going to have a serious conversation
About speed figures
The first thing you need to do
Is rent a field
And look after a racehorse for a week
Report cardifffc February 18, 2019 11:54 AM GMT
irish......I follow speed ratings.......I backed in 3 races on sat..........I backed brio conte though I backed it at 19s...........it won at 25\1....also had a much bigger bet on  the other nicholls horse which didn't run well..............I backed the nicholls horse who won the big chase at 5.2.........and backed the 3m novice hurdle winner at haydock at 7.2........also backed a couple of outsiders in the race at 18\1 and 25\1......they work for me
Report irishone February 18, 2019 7:34 PM GMT
"You can't argue with time ....it's science"

Pmsl LaughCrazyLaughCrazy

Then starts after timing

In the hope you start answering questions one day .....

How long is a length ? (Horse wise ....not that I've ever seen two horses the same length !)

When does the clock start on these speed ratings ?
Report loper February 19, 2019 3:30 PM GMT
People seem to think that because BD was beaten at Kempton on good ground, then he must prefer softer.

At Kempton he had to chase down the leader on behalf of the rest of the field and did too much after his mistake. VB was ridden as if not off and as a result had the race run perfectly to suit.
Had BG not panicked and had tracked VB instead he wouldn't have come off the bridle.

BD is a keen goer and needs holding on to, the state of the ground s not an issue, imho.
Report irishone February 20, 2019 8:33 AM GMT
"Had BG not panicked"

take it you ride out regularly
And enjoy the odd ride in horse races

I see so many of these so called "jockeys"
Panicking everyday, not knowing
When or if their horse will come off the bridle
So obvious as well to the naked uneducated eye
Report loper February 20, 2019 2:30 PM GMT
As it happens, I did use to ride out.

Clearly you are the armchair jockey judging by the number of posts you have fitted into your brief time here.
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