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Drifters NEVER win

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Replies: 47
By:
tobermory
When: 07 Dec 18 02:43
Equine Flew and Stridingedge are spot on.

For horses that start out at, say, 12/1, and end up 9/2 SP, the punters backing them @10/1+(the connections) will be rich and the punters backing at sub 6/1 will be ruined. All about the price. The gambling stables do not have any certs, they just know the horse has a far better chance than the form says.
By:
tobermory
When: 07 Dec 18 02:53
I have never systematically backed or layed drifters but I did have an experiment of laying steamers. I would note down the odds 20 minutes before the start and lay anything that dropped in price by 20% or more.

Did 662 races starting with a bank of £100 and finished on £279 (and paid £61 commission). It didn't seem worthwhile to continue but indicated that doing the opposite - backing gambles late on - does indeed seem a very bad idea.

Tracked progress on a spreadsheet...

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1D38a5fo2a-w25-z8uCEALOnoqgloWvlS1lzLdnhoq94/edit?hl=en&pli=1&hl=en&pli=1#gid=0
By:
zipper
When: 07 Dec 18 05:23
Drifter  ..its INSIDE INFO...that's the owner  he pays the bills    2400 a month     trainer puts nothing in  jock the same   .. why should a punter knowLaugh
By:
equine flew
When: 07 Dec 18 08:34
Thanks tobermory for the data
By:
sageform
When: 07 Dec 18 08:37
Our views are often coloured by experience rather than hard stats. Whenever I take a price and the horse shortens, it usually gets beaten. When I take a price and it drifts they seem MORE LIKELY to win. I usually try to bet late but if I am busy doing something else when a race is run, I tend to use a site that gives me the price at the time I bet or SP which ever is greater. Betfair SP seems to be longer than the last traded price in many cases which begs the question of how do they calculate that.
By:
equine flew
When: 07 Dec 18 08:50
A striding said, the definition of a drift is so hard to define in a fluid marking (do you take the opening price, the 10am price the time 1 hour before racing, and then what percentage does the market have to move to constitute a drift)?

This lack of definition makes it very hard to provide hard data of the facts.   Even then in racing they are not facts, just historical evidence for the sample you are looking at.

I would say with some certainty though-

* if you are backing a horse at 4.0 that starts at 2.8 you are winning.
* if you are backing a horse at 2.8 that starts at 2.8 you are losing
* if you are laying a horses at 2.8 that starts at 4.0 you are winning.
* if you are laying a horse at 4.0 that starts at 2.8 you are losing

All about beating the SP by the factor bigger than the overround/commision factor
By:
Cash Is King
When: 07 Dec 18 09:46
Drifters near the head of the market from certain powerful yards (Henderson, King, Hobbs) rarely seem to win but that general rule has never applied to Nicholls trained runners. No empirical evidence to support that, just years of personal experience!

To go back to the original post, if I’d backed the horse in question I wouldn’t have been as concerned about the drift as I would’ve been if it was trained by someone other than Nicholls.
By:
hulk23
When: 07 Dec 18 10:28
depends why they drift. 

Yorkhill (11-8 to 7-4), Melon (5-2 to 7-2) and Carter McKay (11-4 to 9-2) - never winning.
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