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granitjack
23 Oct 18 20:06
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Date Joined: 05 Jul 16
| Topic/replies: 5,454 | Blogger: granitjack's blog
Looking like they’re on the complete fiddle tonight. 6.10 race - evens fav the nighty before goes off 5-1 and races out 4 or 5 wide after a massive drift. 7.10 race evens fav out to 3-1 and bigger on here....let’s see what happens....
Laying this one for all its worth.

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Replies: 31
By:
granitjack
When: 23 Oct 18 20:08
6.8 now has it lost 2 legs?! Excited
By:
11kv
When: 23 Oct 18 20:10
Looks like Hannon's mob are having a cut at it tonight.
By:
carrot1960
When: 23 Oct 18 20:12
As rancid as the day is long
By:
Tallywagger.
When: 23 Oct 18 20:13
Every jockey happy there.
By:
granitjack
When: 23 Oct 18 20:14
Double figures as soon as the gates opened....and then ridden out 4 wide when there was no need. Stewards should be having a hard luck at those 2 runners tonight (not that they will)....that is as rancid as it gets.
By:
domino14
When: 23 Oct 18 20:14
7/4 30 mins ago, and drifts to 7.0 near off, and goes wide and stuffed, you could say it paid for it's trip over !
By:
TheFear
When: 23 Oct 18 20:14
candelabra ignoring the drift ExcitedExcitedExcited  ffs are you new here, luv Excited
By:
TheFear
When: 23 Oct 18 20:15
"we'll get more back when it wins" Cry
By:
granitjack
When: 23 Oct 18 20:15
Oh it must have Dom. Those 2 horses were over here for one reason only tonight and that was to finish as far from the lead as possible at the finish..
By:
Barton Bank
When: 23 Oct 18 20:44
Was never an evens chance in reality but you're right. That absolutely stank.
By:
carrot1960
When: 23 Oct 18 21:22
9th1.75L
silks
Fastidious (GB) 9, b g 9-6 (Michael O'Callaghan Racing Club)
(Drawn 11)cp5 Rated 54
Exceed And Excel (AUS) - Felicitous (GB)(King's Best (USA))
Breeder - Darley
(Morning price: 5/4 6/4 13/8 2/1 9/4 11/4 5/2 11/4 5/2 11/4 5/2 7/2 4/1)
(Ring price: 3/1 10/3 7/2 4/1 9/2) SP 9/2

M O'CallaghanG P Halpin
in touch on outside, pushed along over 3f out, ridden inside final 2f, weakened final furlong




8th0.5L
silks
Evasive Power (USA) 2, b c 9-6 (Michael O'Callaghan)
(Drawn 8) Rated 89
Elusive Quality (USA) - Casting Director (USA)(Bernardini (USA))
Breeder - Bonne Chance Farm, LLC
(Morning price: 13/8 7/4 15/8 2/1 15/8 7/4 13/8 6/4)
(Ring price: 11/4 3/1 7/2 4/1 9/2 4/1 7/2 11/4) SP 11/4

M O'CallaghanG P Halpin
in touch on outside, driven over 2f out, soon ridden and lost place, weakened final furlong
By:
hulk23
When: 23 Oct 18 22:01
how much is it to join the Michael O'Callaghan Racing Club ?  sign me up please ...
By:
cloone river
When: 23 Oct 18 22:20
If you go to the Irish sports forum and click on the heading Angelic light you may find some of the club members.
By:
granitjack
When: 23 Oct 18 22:21
The first one was even worse imo. Driven up about 5 wide and absolutely fu
By:
granitjack
When: 23 Oct 18 22:22
cked before they came round the bend...
By:
hulk23
When: 23 Oct 18 22:26
interestingly the big boys weren't interested in artificially driving the first one's SP back into 11/4 when it got to 9/2.  think they call that confidence ...
By:
Barton Bank
When: 23 Oct 18 22:48
I wouldn't know what price the first one should have been. To be laying the 2yo at around 6-1 you'd want to know something not in the public domain imho.
By:
CustomCut
When: 23 Oct 18 23:06
If you finish 2nd in 2 big field Irish flat handicaps you should be favourite in almost any low grade English race. The 2yo drifting is a bit more understandable as it had been off 78 days but why send it to Kempton if it needs the run. There was a perfectly good race for it in Naas on Sunday.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 23 Oct 18 23:09
I can only think of one good reason for sending horses from Ireland all that way to run for very poor prize money when there are better/similar opportunities at home. I think it is fairly obvious really.
By:
One Shot 2 Shot
When: 24 Oct 18 09:06
Last time he brought two over at Wolverhampton over Xmas period had a winner and a second so surprised they ran so poorly. Have been a member of Racing Club and know how frustrating Fastidious has been and not convinced it should have been as short priced as it originally was. The massive drift on Evasive Power told you everything you needed to know. Not sure if they are both off to the sales and they thought they would give them run beforehand?
By:
domino14
When: 24 Oct 18 09:10
I'm with Barton Bank, in an Irish novice, the horse rated 89 would have still been 3rd or 4th fav behind O'Brien and Weld horses, so it's task made harder and price bigger. Any Irish horse which comes to England to race, regardless in what they are running in, is always a few points shorter in the betting than it should be. This horse warranted to be fav on form, although the eventual winner had a pleasing debut and looked sure to make a race of it. Had the winner been punted to 6/4 and this drifted to say 9/4 to 5/2, there wouldn't be an issue, but in order for you to lay an 89 rated horse at nearly 6/1 on Betfair, you would have to be of the opinion it had no chance and would unlikely place to lay at those odds. Finding 3 horses to run 90+ in a race like that would be near enough impossible, and the only way you would have known the horse was going to run some way below it's official mark is if you were privy to info not in the public domain, ie why the long absence, it's work at home, it's well being etc.
But after the drift the way it was ridden has to be brought into question, as to what the real MO of the trip to Kempton was for these two horses. That's not to say the trainer is involved, he may have taken instruction from owners to run at Kempton and may have advised against it but was overruled but one thing I'm certain of, is someone with access to info, KNEW neither of those horses would perform to anywhere near their ability last night and took advantage of the prices the bookmakers made them in the morning, not just laying them at what may have been a short price for an unfancied horse, but laying them out to prices which were 2-3pts higher than they really should be, and to do that you would have to know something in my opinion.
By:
MJK
When: 24 Oct 18 10:34
Perhaps both horses went lame in their races?
By:
duncan idaho
When: 24 Oct 18 10:51
Any Irish horse which comes to England to race, regardless in what they are running in, is always a few points shorter in the betting than it should be

facts dont back that up ie you would make a profit backing Irish-trained runners in UK @ BFSP


Not sure if they are both off to the sales and they thought they would give them run beforehand?

RP comment usually has sales engagements and nothing to that effect
By:
domino14
When: 24 Oct 18 11:09
duncan idaho 24 Oct 18 09:51 Joined: 08 Mar 03 | Topic/replies: 23,187 | Blogger: duncan idaho's blog
Any Irish horse which comes to England to race, regardless in what they are running in, is always a few points shorter in the betting than it should be

facts dont back that up ie you would make a profit backing Irish-trained runners in UK @ BFSP

I didn't say it didn't mean they couldn't win Duncan, but my point is that horse wouldn't have been under 2/1 in many Novice races in Ireland. Plus horses going off 8-10/1 in handicaps in Ireland come to England and are automatically fav in a similar grade of race. If you were looking to lay a horse being trained in Ireland, you would be able to lay it at a shorter price running it over here.

Neither horse are entered in next weeks sale by the way.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 24 Oct 18 11:19
i know you never said they couldnt win..i never said that you said that they couldnt win!! but if horses are 'always' being sent off 'a few points shorter in the betting than they should be' then they wouldnt be showing a profit @ BFSP over a number of years..that suggests that the market is underestimating them if anything
By:
asparagus
When: 24 Oct 18 11:27
Agree with Duncan that the market doesn't in general overestimate the Irish. However, the rest of Domino's post is pretty much spot on and questions undoubtedly should have been asked.
By:
carrot1960
When: 24 Oct 18 19:49
Race 4 - 7:10pm
THE 32Red.com NOVICE STAKES (CLASS 5)

The performance of EVASIVE POWER (USA) which finished unplaced, was considered. M. D. O’Callaghan’s representative’s explanation that the colt had a breathing problem and was unsuited by not wearing head gear on this occasion was noted. The Veterinary Officer reported that a post-race examination of EVASIVE POWER (USA) failed to reveal any abnormalities.
By:
granitjack
When: 24 Oct 18 19:50
Who would have thought??! Excited
By:
hulk23
When: 24 Oct 18 19:59
joined the club earlier, platinum membership.  gets me the extra emails about the ones that are most likely to have breathing problems and those that are most likely to be unsuited by not wearing head gear ...
By:
granitjack
When: 24 Oct 18 20:16
Make sure you keep us informed lol Excited
By:
ItsMeSwaddle
When: 24 Oct 18 20:42
Barton Bank usually knowledgeable and again correct here.

Im no expert but why would you send any horse rated that sort of class round Kempton in that race?

SURELY ONLY IF YOU HAVE SOME OTHER FINANCIAL INTEREST, blatantly obvious what it was there, may have told a few too many peopleScared

The sad thing is it goes on every night and the two biggest gripes have got to be:

1) Nothing ever seem sot happen, incompetent stewards  (fair enough it is hard to police)
2) Artificial SP, funny isnt it how the books never pick up a huge drift but within a couple of mins big up a well fancied thing.

flapping track!
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