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12 Aug 18
09:44
Joined:
Date Joined:
10 Nov 07
Hi Guys and Gals (and those in-between if applicable),
Many of you will be fully aware of the daily/weekend lay threads that finished on July 1st (prior to my vacation) and created far more interest than i could have envisaged at the start in late April.
The overall record was 55/66 successful lays resulting in a profit of £1657, so i've decided to resurrect the concept, albeit starting from zero to make it more interesting, and precluding the safety net of a previous profit, hence this new thread.
The ultimate goal is obviously to make a profit in the same time period, but from a personal prespective i would like to improve the previous success rate (including the initial 14/14) as i feel i made a few poor choices before, although i honestly have doubts of achieving this.
Conditions of the lay will be exactly the same as before, only one post in any given day, bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under (at time of posting) and matched on here to win a level stake of £50 each time. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post.
I will also provide reasoning for the lay that could be an associated negative(s) or simply because i feel confident about another runner winning the race. For transparency i will post the record status and running P/L, exactly as before.
The only difference this time is the lay will be posted on random days as opposed to every day previously, this is simply due to work commitments and freedom of time that i may not have the luxury of on a daily basis.
Anyone is welcome to post in context of the thread title and i will hold my hands up and accept critismn when i get it wrong, this is a given at times due to the maximum 5/2 odds constraint that ensures most lays carry a degree of risk. Banter and humour is also welcomed, in fact i plan to ask Betfair to make it a requirement of posting, but no personal bickering please.
The Curragh 3.35 - Advertise
A small field of 6 that appears (on paper at least) to only concern the front two in the betting who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.
AOB loves the Phoenix Stakes, winning it for fun (16 times in the last 20 years) and if ever a race is to be named after him in retirement this one has to be a strong candidate. Several decent colts have won the race over the years and occasionally is a pointer to the following years 2000/1000 guineas on both sides of the Irish sea. Fillies are eligible to run, in fact, 3 of AOB's winners were as such and he runs 2 here today.
There aren't really any significant negatives concerning Advertise who is currently the favourite, but i feel the Sergei Prokofiev is the more likely winner and will probably end up the SP favourite.
Advertise has run 3 times, all at 6f, on good to firm going with a 1-2-1 record. His debut maiden win was fine, although nothing of note has come out of the race since (Pugo, the runner up by 0.75L won a class 3 nursery yesterday).
He won the July Stakes LTO (by 2L) and whilst it's a Group 2 race, it didn't look a particularly strong field this year, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th have all been beaten since. The 6th and 8th (last) placed have each won a soft race since, albeit at odds of 1/4 and 4/9 respectively.
Sergei Prokofiev was well fancied at 4/9 on debut (5f) but tenderly handled (as so often with an AOB 2 year old) finishing 2nd, beaten a head bob. He won his next 2 races (also 5f) very easily by 7L and 4.5L respectively, albeit against inferior opposition, yet looked very classy in both of them. A likeable Scat Daddy colt, travels well and has a good turn of foot. I rate him and if he wins well today could end up being AOB's highest rated 2 year old this season, at least on what we've seen so far.
The best form line in todays race concerns the 6f Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot won by the impressive Calyx where Sergei Prokofiev finished a neck 3rd behind Advertise (SP of 10/1 and 3/1 respectively) hence closeness in the betting between the two today.
I fancied SP strongly for the race, and although i've never jumped on the bandwagon of Ryan Moore detractors, on this occasion it certainly wasn't his finest hour by any means, the colt being ridden from the rear of the far side pack, caught behind several runners at a critical point and having to weave twice, once to the right, then left, losing momentum in the process.
Advertise had first run on him with ample room on the far side rail and was almost 2L up on him at the 2f marker. At the furlong pole, RM decided to switch SP to the near side of Vange (who was a couple of lengths up at the time, eventually finishing 4th) and he picked up really well eventually with a good turn of foot, but it wasn't sufficient to pass Advertise. With a straight and clearer run i'm confident he would have done, although whether he would have beaten Calyx is doubtful.
Although todays race is over 6f (and not an issue for either) i feel Advertise may be better over a longer trip in time, maybe even the 2000 guineas next year, but for me SP is a out-and-out 5f/6f sprinter (aka Carravagio) and will probably be aimed at the 2019 Sandy Lane Stakes and Commonwealth Cup etc even though he's entered in the 7f Futurity Stakes at The Curragh in 2 weeks time. Of course if he won impressively today, going away, this could change.
The Curragh 6f is also a little less demanding than Ascot, this may also suit him.
The going is currently good to firm, but it was raining overnight and showers are expected throughout the day. This will not be an issue for SP (won impressively on yielding at Navan) but Advertise is unproven on it.
Advertise currently has a 2 lb advantage on ratings (112-110) but as there was only a neck between them at RA, this figure is influenced by the July Stakes (2L beating of Kochchek, rated 106).
AOB has 4 entered, so expect team tactics to play a part although not significantly due to the small field.
If there is a negative about SP, AOB has by his own admission publicy stated his stable had been affected in parts by a bug, but media reports suggest all is well now. The betting may be an indicator if this is correct closer to race time.
Although i think the finish will only concern the main 2 protagonists, So Perfect may not be so far away taking a form line with Skitter Scatter literally, and she receives a 3 lb allowance, but i would be surprised if she, or any of the others won.
Selecting a short priced runner to start is a little risky (i did the same with Washington DC at 6/4 on the previous daily thread) although i'm as confident as i can be about SP winning even though he's not a certainty by any means, but my comments are the reasoning to lay Advertise at the odds. Good luck.
Lay @ 2.28
12-Aug-18
09:02:46 15:35 Curragh
Advertise - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:133617070243 | Matched: 12-Aug-18 09:03:49 Lay 2.28 50.00 64.00
50.00
Matched
Many of you will be fully aware of the daily/weekend lay threads that finished on July 1st (prior to my vacation) and created far more interest than i could have envisaged at the start in late April.
The overall record was 55/66 successful lays resulting in a profit of £1657, so i've decided to resurrect the concept, albeit starting from zero to make it more interesting, and precluding the safety net of a previous profit, hence this new thread.
The ultimate goal is obviously to make a profit in the same time period, but from a personal prespective i would like to improve the previous success rate (including the initial 14/14) as i feel i made a few poor choices before, although i honestly have doubts of achieving this.
Conditions of the lay will be exactly the same as before, only one post in any given day, bookmaker odds of 5/2 or under (at time of posting) and matched on here to win a level stake of £50 each time. A copy of the bet will be shown as part of the post.
I will also provide reasoning for the lay that could be an associated negative(s) or simply because i feel confident about another runner winning the race. For transparency i will post the record status and running P/L, exactly as before.
The only difference this time is the lay will be posted on random days as opposed to every day previously, this is simply due to work commitments and freedom of time that i may not have the luxury of on a daily basis.
Anyone is welcome to post in context of the thread title and i will hold my hands up and accept critismn when i get it wrong, this is a given at times due to the maximum 5/2 odds constraint that ensures most lays carry a degree of risk. Banter and humour is also welcomed, in fact i plan to ask Betfair to make it a requirement of posting, but no personal bickering please.
The Curragh 3.35 - Advertise
A small field of 6 that appears (on paper at least) to only concern the front two in the betting who finished 2nd and 3rd in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot.
AOB loves the Phoenix Stakes, winning it for fun (16 times in the last 20 years) and if ever a race is to be named after him in retirement this one has to be a strong candidate. Several decent colts have won the race over the years and occasionally is a pointer to the following years 2000/1000 guineas on both sides of the Irish sea. Fillies are eligible to run, in fact, 3 of AOB's winners were as such and he runs 2 here today.
There aren't really any significant negatives concerning Advertise who is currently the favourite, but i feel the Sergei Prokofiev is the more likely winner and will probably end up the SP favourite.
Advertise has run 3 times, all at 6f, on good to firm going with a 1-2-1 record. His debut maiden win was fine, although nothing of note has come out of the race since (Pugo, the runner up by 0.75L won a class 3 nursery yesterday).
He won the July Stakes LTO (by 2L) and whilst it's a Group 2 race, it didn't look a particularly strong field this year, the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 7th have all been beaten since. The 6th and 8th (last) placed have each won a soft race since, albeit at odds of 1/4 and 4/9 respectively.
Sergei Prokofiev was well fancied at 4/9 on debut (5f) but tenderly handled (as so often with an AOB 2 year old) finishing 2nd, beaten a head bob. He won his next 2 races (also 5f) very easily by 7L and 4.5L respectively, albeit against inferior opposition, yet looked very classy in both of them. A likeable Scat Daddy colt, travels well and has a good turn of foot. I rate him and if he wins well today could end up being AOB's highest rated 2 year old this season, at least on what we've seen so far.
The best form line in todays race concerns the 6f Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot won by the impressive Calyx where Sergei Prokofiev finished a neck 3rd behind Advertise (SP of 10/1 and 3/1 respectively) hence closeness in the betting between the two today.
I fancied SP strongly for the race, and although i've never jumped on the bandwagon of Ryan Moore detractors, on this occasion it certainly wasn't his finest hour by any means, the colt being ridden from the rear of the far side pack, caught behind several runners at a critical point and having to weave twice, once to the right, then left, losing momentum in the process.
Advertise had first run on him with ample room on the far side rail and was almost 2L up on him at the 2f marker. At the furlong pole, RM decided to switch SP to the near side of Vange (who was a couple of lengths up at the time, eventually finishing 4th) and he picked up really well eventually with a good turn of foot, but it wasn't sufficient to pass Advertise. With a straight and clearer run i'm confident he would have done, although whether he would have beaten Calyx is doubtful.
Although todays race is over 6f (and not an issue for either) i feel Advertise may be better over a longer trip in time, maybe even the 2000 guineas next year, but for me SP is a out-and-out 5f/6f sprinter (aka Carravagio) and will probably be aimed at the 2019 Sandy Lane Stakes and Commonwealth Cup etc even though he's entered in the 7f Futurity Stakes at The Curragh in 2 weeks time. Of course if he won impressively today, going away, this could change.
The Curragh 6f is also a little less demanding than Ascot, this may also suit him.
The going is currently good to firm, but it was raining overnight and showers are expected throughout the day. This will not be an issue for SP (won impressively on yielding at Navan) but Advertise is unproven on it.
Advertise currently has a 2 lb advantage on ratings (112-110) but as there was only a neck between them at RA, this figure is influenced by the July Stakes (2L beating of Kochchek, rated 106).
AOB has 4 entered, so expect team tactics to play a part although not significantly due to the small field.
If there is a negative about SP, AOB has by his own admission publicy stated his stable had been affected in parts by a bug, but media reports suggest all is well now. The betting may be an indicator if this is correct closer to race time.
Although i think the finish will only concern the main 2 protagonists, So Perfect may not be so far away taking a form line with Skitter Scatter literally, and she receives a 3 lb allowance, but i would be surprised if she, or any of the others won.
Selecting a short priced runner to start is a little risky (i did the same with Washington DC at 6/4 on the previous daily thread) although i'm as confident as i can be about SP winning even though he's not a certainty by any means, but my comments are the reasoning to lay Advertise at the odds. Good luck.
Lay @ 2.28
12-Aug-18
09:02:46 15:35 Curragh
Advertise - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:133617070243 | Matched: 12-Aug-18 09:03:49 Lay 2.28 50.00 64.00
50.00
Matched
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Replies: 6,194
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yyiipppeeeee Thank you ANDREW good luck
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GL AIS
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Lampus,
Thanks, but maybe you should save the yippeeeee for after the race (just in case)  |
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Welcome back Andrew.
I am strictly a layer ( as anybody can guess who sees my efforts in the Naps Comp),but I go much longer than you do. However it's nice to see such a sensible well-argued thread and good luck to you. |
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Sweetnsour and Salmon,
Thank you and likewise good luck. I also used to play in the nap comps, the nearest i got to forum stardom was runner-up in the premiership, i'm still waiting for my Silver medal |
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well reasoned and logical.. maybe. it could also be argued that advertise with 3 runs(sp 5) has more room for improvement.?
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GL with the thread Andrew...hope it starts off with a loser for you..or a winner whichever way you look at it .
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Welcome back Andrew,hope the hols were good.
Families have gone hungry in your absence  , hope you pick things up where you left off.  May i wish you all the very best of luck Sir. |
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Best wishes on your new thread Andrew.
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Good luck Andrew.
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Interested to know what team tactics you think could be used in a 5 runner race on one of the widest courses around ? Advertise is a drop in horse, but incredibly hard to block one in, in a small field and SP likes to be dropped in. Good luck on the lay. I actually thought the pair of them was a pretty safe reverse forecast as there was little to split them at Ascot and suspect it will be the same again. I thought the Harrington horse looked outclassed, and the same The Irish Rover, whilst the filly So Perfect has 12lb to find on her last run. Advertise improved 1lb at Newmarket, and has 2lb better figure than SP, but that's so marginal. Banker reverse forecast, although the return will only be a marginal profit. Hope you call it the right way, but not a laying race for me, unless it was a place lay The Irish Rover around the 6.0 mark, this he should be the rank outsider myself.
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nice write up andrew , layed at 2.34 thank you and best of luck
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There can't be another group 1 on the racing schedule that a trainer has completely dominated in the last 20 years?
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Many thanks for the comments guys.
Kavvie, Sergei Prokofiev has run 4 times, not 5 . Domino, Ref the team tactics (that i stated wouldn't be significant) when i posted AOB had 4 runners, but Gossamer Wings has since been withdrawn. My thinking was AOB had 3 other runners that couldn't really win on form, including 2 of them drawn directly adjacent to Advertise (stall 1) and they could be a 'nuisance' (if only temporarily) as he races from off the pace. There's not much to choose between the front two, so any minor 'infringement' could be a distinct advantage. Having said that, i don't think SP needs any stablemate assistance in a cleanly run race anyway. I agree it looks a reasonably safe R/fc, but it's probably more profitable to simply back one of them for a 1-2 place instead. Good luck if you're playing in other races. |
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Welcome back Andrew...nice write up...best of luck!
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Foyleswar,
Thank you and likewise, good luck. Striding, Agreed, it's an incredible record, in fact 16/20 of any race class is. |
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Andrew, good idea re the place bet, hadn't thought of that approach.
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Too true mate.
This a bit different from having a few more solid ones on your side but obviously the odds reflect this as a bit shorter. Wish you all the best |
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Good to see you back Andrew, I trust you enjoyed yourself. As for today's lay I've actually backed Advertise at 5/4 as I think it has the better form (IMHO) Anyways, at least one of us will have a pick up!
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Stewart,
Thanks and yes a great time, just too short like all vacations You could say that Advertise has the better form by virtue of his group 2 win since the Coventry, but Sergei Prokofiev hasn't run. They are very closely matched anyway, only 2 lb seperates them on ratings, and i do think SP was a tad unlucky. I can't see anything else winning, but it wouldn't be a total shock, they're all lightly raced 2 year olds after all. If they are both going to get beat, So Perfect (ironically same initials) could be the one, she was a group 3 winner over CD LTO and gets 3 lb allowance. Good luck. |
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Reluctantly, the same to you Andrew.
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AOB 4 out of the 5 anything can and Probably will happen
 G luck all. Great write up Andrew  |
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Bit of Support for Perfect
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good luck andrew, but not today as i have backed adverise.
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G call Stewart .Perfect ran very well also
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Unlucky Andrew
Knew your fate early, slow pace and APOB's pulling like a train. Winner has an action that may not be too ideally suited on that ground. 2nd and 3rd (3rd I place layed, and scared the crap out me) ran well. |
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Unlucky ANDREW ran too free
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Sorry guys, i got it wrong. Sergei was far too keen, but not good enough. For a moment i thought the filly was going to win
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Always another race do not despair
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Look on the bright side – better to pay out on a 5/4 than an 11/4.
That’s just given the backers of your Lays a false sense of security. |
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hard race that one, surprised you picked it tbh.
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Thanks guys, to be honest you could see after a furlong it wasn't travelling well and 2f out it was beaten, i was watching the other SP at that point. C'est le vie, as you say happysandwich, losses were limited, but a winning start would have been nice.
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A minor blip Andrew. Your strike rate says it all.
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Unlucky today, Andrew.
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f dettori + 44 level stake riding horses 100 rated + today 123 rated rpr
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WD Andrew in Sweden ^ ya troll appears day one
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Unlucky Andrew as I said to striding very little between then not s race to bet on ! You will come good no pressure too predict anything take your time class it timeless
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Morning from sunny Yorkshire
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Morning from overcast Yorkshire
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