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08 Aug 18
16:49
Joined:
Date Joined:
13 Jun 12
are they not worth taking on?
seem to recall a few getting turned over recently
a cheeky lay on this one in the 3.50 ponte
seem to recall a few getting turned over recently
a cheeky lay on this one in the 3.50 ponte
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Aug 8, 2018 -- 5:33PM, domino14 wrote:
I bet the horse that bombed out today but it's worth noting that it's impressive win the other day came on a flat track with a long straight and on easy ground, a track he also ran very well at first time back this season. I don't think the faster ground or demands of Ponte suited the horse at all. He's looked quirky in his races and likes to travel into the race, he couldn't do that today and I believe the horse sulked. He's a horse that would only interest me in future with ease in the ground and on a track with a nice long straight where he can run a waiting race, without needing to chase. I'm not convinced the horse is that genuine.
Doesn't Newmarket have a climb to the finish?
@Kenny
Don't doubt he was expected to win, having won so impressively last time and looking progressive and he was subject to rave reviews at home, but he was disappointing on his second start this season and he does look one of those that doesn't back up quickly, has quirks and might be best caught with ease in the ground after a break.
Don't doubt he was expected to win, having won so impressively last time and looking progressive and he was subject to rave reviews at home, but he was disappointing on his second start this season and he does look one of those that doesn't back up quickly, has quirks and might be best caught with ease in the ground after a break.
@MJK
The July course is a pretty steady climb, it's not really demanding at all, as you free wheel downhill to around the 2f marker so horses travel into races there, it's also why horses are hard to pass on from the front, as horses don't normally stop up it. Pontefract very different, as you are always climbing, have to climb around a bend as well and the final 2f is very stiff.
The July course is a pretty steady climb, it's not really demanding at all, as you free wheel downhill to around the 2f marker so horses travel into races there, it's also why horses are hard to pass on from the front, as horses don't normally stop up it. Pontefract very different, as you are always climbing, have to climb around a bend as well and the final 2f is very stiff.
not sure there was much easy last week
Friday
03 August Friday
03 August at 16:40 Good to Firm 7.2 on 03-08-2018 at 07:00
Friday
03 August Friday
03 August at 16:40 Good to Firm 7.2 on 03-08-2018 at 07:00
not backing up, seems a stronger indicator
Following the race, the representative of William Haggas reported that REVEREND JACOBS, which started favourite and finished fifth of six, ran flat having raced 5 days previously.
Following the race, the representative of William Haggas reported that REVEREND JACOBS, which started favourite and finished fifth of six, ran flat having raced 5 days previously.
@Delta
I know they say Good-Firm but I'm pretty sure there was thunderstorms and rained most of the evening ?
I know they say Good-Firm but I'm pretty sure there was thunderstorms and rained most of the evening ?
there were some thunderstorms, possibly after his race?, all the crowd were out on his replay - later they were in the bars
win was new course record so must have been g/f (ish)
win was new course record so must have been g/f (ish)
Haggas along with Varian are deadly for the backers with their odds on runners.
oops thought it was odds on. sure it was at some point
haggas odds on shot coming up. You know what to do, folks
People will say lay them, but the question is why do so many of them get beat?
Haggas odds on down. Its like finding money on the road
People keep backing them at the wrong prices it seems.
Going off these prices purely on the connections they have 
I have stood for Prabeni a couple of times this season but fortunately tonight I finally got round to opposing him. The horse is a one-paced dog. It was laughable how the clowns on RUK were bigging up Moore's ride on Sextant when he beat Prabeni and one of the slowest horses in the Gosden yard. Sextant probably had about two stone in hand.
38.42 winner with jockey not looking like he wanted it to win.
Tudhope was utterly hopeless, just assumed it was a given he would win.
feckin what was Tudhope doing exactly in that finish...???
Only bothered trying once it was obvious he wouldn't catch the other one?
Maybe so, but still doesn't excuse Tud 'effort' on that 1/4 shot
That final couple of furlongs was odd to say the least from Tudhope. Only got stuck in when it was too late.
I had no bet.
I had no bet.
Don't think it was dodgy, more over-confidence, which is infuriating for punters.
Guessing he won't ride so 'oddly' next time he's on an O'Meara gamble for example...odd that.
At least winning jock had an excuse that he was in front.
I backed 1.3 happy to get out at 1.24 never thought he looked happy
does 'getting stuck in' necessarliy make the horse go faster?
we don't know, we've never ridden a racehorse.
we don't know, we've never ridden a racehorse.
It seemed to pick up again and close when he went for it, so yes IMO
I'm sure I've seen Tud go for his whip like crazy to get a horse home at other times, so why not there?
rule no.1 never trust rat-faced jockeys. mckeown, jimmy quinn etc
stu, may have been instructed by trainer not to go hard on the horse, remember they are not arsed they are not backing them
Maybe just got overconfident when he should have tried to kick ahead further out, but not good either way.
TBF his final ride out in the finish wasn't too bad, just that he sat back too long earlier in trying to gain an edge over the other horse, prob thinking he would win easy.
oh well, like you say, they don't give a stuff about the 1/4 backers losing dosh for sure - I had some of it, but it wasn't my biggest winner in the field either.
Tudhope is a first class tw@t end of. That was absolutely pathetic. He used the whip enough but not how it should be used. He never got after the horse with any strength at all and made the effort all too late. Ferkin useless and it happens regularly with him.
TheFear
TheFear 18 Sep 18 17:11 Joined: 09 May 14 | Topic/replies: 11,460 | Blogger: TheFear's blog
rule no.1 never trust rat-faced jockeys. mckeown, jimmy quinn etc
Rat faced jockeys..... How could you omit Ronald's daddy............ Shane Kelly??
TheFear 18 Sep 18 17:11 Joined: 09 May 14 | Topic/replies: 11,460 | Blogger: TheFear's blog
rule no.1 never trust rat-faced jockeys. mckeown, jimmy quinn etc
Rat faced jockeys..... How could you omit Ronald's daddy............ Shane Kelly??
Haggas had another odds on loser over in France today.
Its become farsical. Some bright spark will say lay them instead of asking why this isn't being looked into.
strange as up till last year you wouldn't be asking the question.
surely the market is as efficient on heavy ground
this year last year chalk and cheese with haggas.
last year 31% in favour of the blind backer
this year 32% in favour of the blind layer
last year 31% in favour of the blind backer
this year 32% in favour of the blind layer
sorry fred if the market is then the results are too
actually the return for the layer this year on the Haggas odds on is around 44%
Striding do you have any stats on 2yo favs carrying 6lbs + in these events as they seam to get beat so many times 2 already today
No Kev for some reason these pens aren't working in nvc races in my DB.
I might get onto that cheers.
I might get onto that cheers.
Thanks striding I like to keep you busy 
let me know your findings I think these were only introduce last couple of years to make things fairer but they seam to be to much for many of these favs 
let me know your findings I think these were only introduce last couple of years to make things fairer but they seam to be to much for many of these favs
I just ran the following...
on the shorties favs (evs or less on BFSP) top weights carrying 6 to 14lbs higher than the race average in nvc races
obvs early days but nothing significant.
on the shorties favs (evs or less on BFSP) top weights carrying 6 to 14lbs higher than the race average in nvc races
| Bets | Wins | Win% | P/L(SP) | Place% | Race% | ROI(SP) | P/L(BF) | ROI(BF) | Lay(BF) | ROI(L) | Plc(BF) | Plc%(BF) | P/L(Plc) | ROI(BF Plc) | AvgOddBF | BF A/E | BF chi | BFExpWins | AvgWinOdd |
| 64 | 42 | 65.63 | -0.65 | 93.75 | 65.63 | -1.02 | 0.39 | 0.61 | -2.67 | -7.07 | 59 | 93.65 | 3.66 | 5.8 | 1.59 | 1.02 | 0.03 | 41.35 | 1.51 |
obvs early days but nothing significant.
Thanks for that striding much appreciated yes early days but worth keeping a check on cheers
mark johnston 9/10
Haggas was 2/3 before today
Haggas actually been showing slight profits in the place market with his shorties overall (including this year) so I'd reckon this year is no more than just one of them random anomalies.
Haggas was 2/3 before today
Haggas actually been showing slight profits in the place market with his shorties overall (including this year) so I'd reckon this year is no more than just one of them random anomalies.
ie this year lots of crossbar efforts for Haggas.
Haggis just had a winner bolts up after the odds on flop the race before
Another one that was odds on all day bites the dust after a drift in the betting.
He's had a odds on winner today. Maybe he's being watched.
Interesting runner fastest maiden at chelmsford this season,thought it would go off 1/5.
Considering postion it was in was probably 5ls better than that run..
Won despite Jones riding it ferkerd one up the other day of haggas.
And another one bites the dust, unreal how many odds on losers he has.
this year you are right EMR last year was completely the opposite
this looks pretty bomb proof form wise(albeit not at the track)
Prior to today Haggas odds on shots at Southwell were:
6/9 66.67% £0.64 to sp nowt in it either way
6/9 66.67% £0.64 to sp nowt in it either way
Haggas odds-on (SP) 2019 (before today): 39-52 (75%) roi @ Bfsp +19
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