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themightymac
24 May 18 18:50
Joined:
Date Joined: 05 Apr 02
| Topic/replies: 31,333 | Blogger: themightymac's blog
.... the Holy Grail of betting. Since racing began, gamblers have been searching for a winning system and to the best of my knowledge, they have all failed dismally. Starting from tomorrow, I am going to follow a system that I think can show a nice profit long term. I shall list the runners the night before and for keeping tabs on the system, profit/loss shall be determined to a £10 level stake.

The system is quite simple (bit like myself Crazy). Bet all horses that were beaten odds on favourite on their previous run. Horses are not machines and will always make fools of punters, but I am a firm believer in giving strongly fancied runners another chance when turned over at odds on. As you know, there are so many meetings nowadays and it`s easy to miss one, so if I do please let me know.

Good luck if you follow the system.

FRIDAY (25/05/18)

NO HORSES RUNNING
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Report lord skywalker May 25, 2018 4:32 PM BST
can produce some nice winners but its gotta outweigh the losers
Report themightymac May 25, 2018 5:43 PM BST
Two runners tomorrow to start the ball rolling. Thing with systems is that you have to follow it blind. Start deciding horses have no chance, like 50/1 shot maiden of O`Brien`s in Irish Guineas, can prove bad. In for a penny, in for a pound. Let the game begin!

SATURDAY (25/05/18)

Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh)

Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)
Report themightymac May 26, 2018 3:10 PM BST
Oh, Applesandpieres won at Cartmel by 18 lengths at 8/1. Nice start. Can`t see the other one winning though but I have bet it as one has to follow the system blindly. Pity nobody joined me, playing with the bookies money now.
Report wondersobright May 26, 2018 3:13 PM BST
wd tmm
Report themightymac May 26, 2018 3:15 PM BST
Thanks mate.
Report ProSniper May 26, 2018 3:37 PM BST
BAMOS mighty! Promising early signs. The trouble is like the one Gazey keeps running in to, how to slice off the fat and make the best use of our capital? So much racing, so many selections, so many cisterns.. and not enough time/capital to follow them all with the dedication needed.
Report themightymac May 26, 2018 4:00 PM BST
Cheers sniper! You are correct with what you say, but can`t ask for a better start, well perhaps I can if the Rag wins the Guineas, lol. To get in front so early is a bonus and I can invest the profit in other ones. Good luck with your bets!
Report themightymac May 26, 2018 4:22 PM BST
I knew that Spanish Point had no chance but one has to follow the system blindly or there is no point to the exercise. Shall post any runners for Sunday later.

FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING


SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80


Overall Profit/Loss    +£70
Report themightymac May 26, 2018 5:06 PM BST
Three runners tomorrow. Good luck!

SUNDAY (27/05/18)

Latrobe (3.00 Curragh)
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh)
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell)
Report ima_mazed66 May 27, 2018 5:53 AM BST
Up until Gardens Of Babylon, I thought I knew what the criteria was for picking those so far and still might if either that one is a mistake and shouldn't be a selection, or it isn't a mistake and so the criteria rules are not as specific or strict as I initially thought.
Report value bet May 27, 2018 9:26 AM BST
You are just about on the button there.

I see it all the time and mainly it is media hype that sends them into the red and are also lightly raced.

When they get that run out of the way they go out again in price and can perform.

Last night 1.35 NEW QUEEN (something like that) (6) I am sure the media jumped on her, but she looked very ordinary pre race
and got beat about 6 lengths in a small field.

Next start 3rd up and more likely fitter she can bounce back in the black.

But at 1.35 yesterday, punters got burnt big time.

James
Report Facts May 27, 2018 9:39 AM BST
Wasn't Garden Of Babylon an odds on beaten favourite in its last run ?
Report swift-tuttle May 27, 2018 9:59 AM BST
Systems like these don't have to be trialled - you can see the stats very easily for past years (stats necessarily belong to the past). But you have to be clear about what you're testing - odds on last time, measured by what? industry SP, Betfair SP, last show in SP betting markets or last show on Betfair.


In any event whichever way you gather the stats, it's a complete loser year on year as Duncan has pointed out (there is one small winning year in 2016 at BFSP). Laying is a better bet but even then it's nothing special.
Report Facts May 27, 2018 10:03 AM BST
Agreed, systems like these are doomed to failure.
However there are ' systems' that show long term profit Cool
Report swift-tuttle May 27, 2018 10:06 AM BST
Why have you put a sunglasses emoji at the end of your post Facts? Is that a typo?
Report Facts May 27, 2018 10:07 AM BST
Nope it's not a typo.
Report Knight Commander May 27, 2018 11:30 AM BST
Systems are strange things. I followed one which made a small but consistent profit for 6-7 years but has made a loss over the past 18 months.

Now keeping a record of it with a view to backing the selections instead of laying them. Strange how it suddenly turned round Crazy
Report Gaze733 May 27, 2018 11:36 AM BST
Did someone say holy grail? I happen to be the expert on it.  There are indeed systems that work beautifully but they're not this simple. @Prosniper fat is not that much of an issue. Look at this system for example: https://snag.gy/j2FNlR.jpg (290 units are from May this year, I couldn't believe it myself, it's better than in 2017 when I stopped testing it at +151 for some reason)
You see that downswing at the end? That's when I posted them in the thread. Just because they lost doesn't mean they were bad picks, it's just variance taking its toll. Overall my systems run at 22% strike rate the past few weeks despite my average being 38%, just gotta ride it out.
Report Grok May 27, 2018 2:34 PM BST
I've had a system that has made reasonable profits since 2009 until the last 18 months.  I was wondering if it had anything to do with PP taking over, or was it something to do with the number of place type bets being increased??  There have been some suspect figures returned at BSP, for example, the 1000 Guinesa winner.
Report wondersobright May 27, 2018 2:58 PM BST
what's the criteria of that system gaze? cheers
Report Gaze733 May 27, 2018 3:26 PM BST
I'm not just handing out my golden geese, I spent at least 10k hours finding them.
Report swift-tuttle May 27, 2018 3:53 PM BST
It is a goose that hasn't laid any eggs for the last 18 months by your own admission
Report ProSniper May 27, 2018 3:56 PM BST
Fat has built up. Gazey won't be long in trimming it away..
Report Gaze733 May 27, 2018 4:37 PM BST
If I had a 10k bankroll I'd be printing 5k a month. I'm long term unemployed and broke, where do you think I get the time to paper bet 200 systems?
Report ProSniper May 27, 2018 4:57 PM BST
Gazey, I told you were to go for the 10k. No sympathy if you don't heed sound advice.
Report Gaze733 May 27, 2018 5:14 PM BST
I would be ok with 500, I could grow it fast.
Report Facts May 27, 2018 5:18 PM BST
Start with a racing bank that you can afford. As small as you like. If your system is sound, the bank will increase.
And with it, the proportional stakes.
Good luck
Report themightymac May 27, 2018 10:06 PM BST
The criteria is quite simple to understand as outlined in the first post. Bet all horses that were beaten odds on favourite on their previous run.

This means a horse that started odds on s.p. favourite in it`s last race and got beat. Can`t believe that I have to explain that to seasoned punters, but hey ho.

There were only 3 horses running in UK and IRL on Sunday that fitted that simple criteria.

Gardens of Babylon was beaten last time out at 9/10sp so that is a selection

Latrobe was beaten last time out at 9/10sp so that is a selection

Ringa Ding Ding was beaten last time out at 4/6sp so that is a selection

Good news for the detractors is that the 2 that ran finished second and the 3rd Gardens Of Babylon was a N/R.
Report themightymac May 27, 2018 10:11 PM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10


Overall Profit/Loss    +£50
Report themightymac May 27, 2018 10:13 PM BST
previous run meaning last time out

beaten odds on fav meaning a horse that starts at odds less than evens and doesn`t win
Report Facts May 27, 2018 10:25 PM BST
By Jove ! I think he's got it !!Laugh
Report betting_masta May 27, 2018 10:26 PM BST
OP why are you betting against stats
you started off nicely but look at this

duncan idaho • May 24, 2018 6:58 PM BST
beaten odds-on fav (@ SP) lto (all UK/Ire races 2008>): 1902- 7480 (25%) roibf -1.3/ roisp -0.54

you can't ignore a statistic with over 5000+ runners and expect it to perform any diferently just cause you're backing them.
Report themightymac May 27, 2018 10:56 PM BST
MONDAY (28/05/18)

Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)
Report themightymac May 27, 2018 11:05 PM BST
I don`t intend to follow it and bet them for the rest of my life. I am merely suggesting to follow it short term and get out with a nice profit when the time arrives. I can assure you that I will show an overall profit using this system.

Statistics are a bit like the bible and can be interpreted to suit ones own argument. Why quote past statistics starting from 2008, apart from the reason that`s as far as his source goes back. What is the profit and loss of the said statistic if someone had been following the system all their betting life since, lets say, 1970?
Report themightymac May 27, 2018 11:14 PM BST
that was in reply to Masta
Report ima_mazed66 May 28, 2018 4:04 AM BST
Facts 27 May 18 09:39 
Wasn't Garden Of Babylon an odds on beaten favourite in its last run ?


Yeah sorry, I either didn't read all of the original post or didn't read it properly to see themightymac had posted the rules. Often people don't as they don't want to give much away but in my defence, I had not been to bed yet when I posted.

The reason why I had wondered if Garden Of Babylon was a mistake was that all of the others up until then had finished 2nd and odd-on.
Report themightymac May 28, 2018 8:11 PM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10

MONDAY (28/05/18)
Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)  2nd 7/1  -£10
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)  2nd 15/8  -£10
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)  2nd 5/4  -£10
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)  WON 4/1  +£40


Overall Profit/Loss    +£60

A lot of seconds past few days but still in profit.
Report doorman99 May 28, 2018 8:31 PM BST
How would it work out if they were backed to place only? Duncan Idaho, stats? Using your small sample mac, woulda bn good last few days.
Report themightymac May 28, 2018 8:35 PM BST
TUESDAY (29/05/18)

Mayaadeen (4.45 Gowran Park)
Report themightymac May 28, 2018 8:38 PM BST
That actually crossed my mind doorman. Place only on Betfair? All placed except O`Brien`s rag in 2000 Guineas which had no chance.
Report themightymac May 28, 2018 8:40 PM BST
2 Winners, 5 seconds, 1 Unplaced.
Report doorman99 May 28, 2018 9:10 PM BST
Ya betfair place market only. Hopefully Duncan will come on and say whether it works or not.
Report ProSniper May 28, 2018 9:14 PM BST
Awayinthewest was a really good one. Thought the beast would destroy the weak field it faced lto Angry found another weak race today + armed with better jockey. Odds-on flops winning @ a price "seems" above normal. But maybe it's just another confirmatory bias that the brain soaks up..

Out of interest, what are the stats from odds 5/2> ?  and also 7/2> ?
Report themightymac May 29, 2018 5:20 PM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10

MONDAY (28/05/18)
Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)  2nd 7/1  -£10
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)  2nd 15/8  -£10
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)  2nd 5/4  -£10
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)  WON 4/1  +£40

TUESDAY (29/05/18)
Mayaadeen (4.45 Gowran Park)  3rd 4/6  -£10


Overall Profit/Loss    +£50
Report themightymac May 29, 2018 5:43 PM BST
WEDNESDAY (30/05/18)

Amadeus (5.00 Beverley)
Timiniya (6.55 Gowran Park)
Smile A Mile (6.35 Ripon)
Report doorman99 May 30, 2018 5:09 PM BST
Amadeus, what an utter hound. Only a 3yo, blinkers on and on and off bridle all the way.
Report themightymac May 30, 2018 5:33 PM BST
I couldn`t agree more doorman. Same at Musselburgh when turned over at odds on. Good money for it too again today. One to avoid
Report Knight Commander May 30, 2018 5:42 PM BST
A forumite called Red Hiney Monkey posted a laying system on here in 2012 and it has shown an average profit of +196 points per year since then Happy
Report themightymac May 30, 2018 5:53 PM BST
THURSDAY (30/05/18)

Herm (5.20 Wolverhampton)
Wells De Lune (8.00 Ffos Las)
Report themightymac May 30, 2018 5:54 PM BST
That is very good Commander. What is it?
Report doorman99 May 30, 2018 6:42 PM BST
Knight Commander please tell!
Report ProSniper May 30, 2018 7:30 PM BST
Ok KC you've got a couple of bites.. don't be so cruel as to leave them hanging. Reel them in and finish them off against a rock

Report themightymac May 30, 2018 7:50 PM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10

MONDAY (28/05/18)
Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)  2nd 7/1  -£10
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)  2nd 15/8  -£10
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)  2nd 5/4  -£10
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)  WON 4/1  +£40

TUESDAY (29/05/18)
Mayaadeen (4.45 Gowran Park)  3rd 4/6  -£10

WEDNESDAY (30/05/18)
Amadeus (5.00 Beverley) LOST 8th 9/4
Timiniya (6.55 Gowran Park) N/R
Smile A Mile (6.35 Ripon) N/R


Overall Profit/Loss    +£40
Report themightymac May 30, 2018 7:51 PM BST
THURSDAY (30/05/18)

Herm (5.20 Wolverhampton)
Wells De Lune (8.00 Ffos Las)
Report tom-tom May 30, 2018 9:22 PM BST
Surely garde Ville was a system horse.beaten odds on last time out?
Report Tiger Tiger May 30, 2018 9:41 PM BST
Dont think it was a selection tom tom, 66/1 last time out.
Report tom-tom May 30, 2018 9:46 PM BST
I thought it was odds on in a point last time out. I may have read it wrong then.
Report tom-tom May 30, 2018 9:51 PM BST
You are correct my mistake.
Report tom-tom May 30, 2018 10:23 PM BST
Forget the above.Beaten in a point last time out at 10/11fav.
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 2:10 AM BST
I hope you bet it tomtom and I would like to claim it, but I wasn't including PtP racing and I didn't bet it because of that.
Report tom-tom May 31, 2018 6:41 AM BST
Herm,ran in Jersey last time out.how does that count then?
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 2:29 PM BST
You have a fair point. At sometime down the line we`ll even get a beaten odds on favourite which ran in France, Germany, USA or somewhere else in the world. To keep things simple, I am only concentrating on races held and run in GBR and IRL for betting and pre bet criteria. e.g. If a horse is beaten odds on favourite at Sandown and it`s next race is in France or somewhere abroad, it doesn`t count as a bet. Nothing to stop anybody looking in to slightly tamper with the criteria and include foreign races, but not I.
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 2:31 PM BST
So Herm doesn`t count today. My mistake tom-tom, thanks for pointing that out.

THURSDAY (30/05/18)

Herm (5.20 Wolverhampton) VOID
Wells De Lune (8.00 Ffos Las)
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 2:35 PM BST
Apologies to anybody who may be following and has already bet it. I hope it wins though as I have bet it in error and didn`t realise that it`s last run was in Jersey until tomtom had pointed it out.
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 2:36 PM BST
Win or Lose though it doesn`t count in overall Profit/Loss.
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 3:41 PM BST
FRIDAY (01/06/18)

Victory Wave (8.50 Goodwood)
Report tom-tom May 31, 2018 3:52 PM BST
So if it's English and Irish racing do hunter chases count? and if so point to point results and    so should count surely?
Report TheBaron May 31, 2018 6:30 PM BST
With all information so readily available these days I think the only way to make a system pay is to look at things from an unconventional angle that no one else has considered and even if the results where published the selection method would not be obvious.
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 7:32 PM BST
Yes tomtom, British (Not just England) and Ireland and all races Under Rules. Hunter Chases ok but not P2P.
Report tom-tom May 31, 2018 7:37 PM BST
Lots of hunger chasers run in point to points.so you are saying if they ran in a point previous to a chase the s p is not taken into account?
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 10:41 PM BST
Yes mate, for my criteria for selections. Big difference running between the flags and under rules. Different ball game. Only way one can punt on P2P races is on course and won`t take much money for a horse to start odds on.
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 10:44 PM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10

MONDAY (28/05/18)
Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)  2nd 7/1  -£10
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)  2nd 15/8  -£10
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)  2nd 5/4  -£10
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)  WON 4/1  +£40

TUESDAY (29/05/18)
Mayaadeen (4.45 Gowran Park)  3rd 4/6  -£10

WEDNESDAY (30/05/18)
Amadeus (5.00 Beverley) LOST 8th 9/4  -£10
Timiniya (6.55 Gowran Park) N/R
Smile A Mile (6.35 Ripon) N/R

THURSDAY (30/05/18)
Herm (5.20 Wolverhampton) VOID
Wells De Lune (8.00 Ffos Las)  2nd 1/2  -£10


Overall Profit/Loss    +£30
Report themightymac May 31, 2018 10:44 PM BST
FRIDAY (01/06/18)

Victory Wave (8.50 Goodwood)
Report themightymac June 1, 2018 6:02 PM BST
SATURDAY (02/06/18)

Sugar Coating (4.50 Doncaster)
Kew Gardens (4.30 Epsom)
Report lead on June 1, 2018 9:34 PM BST
Notice one of your beaten Photo Tip's has just won,mac
Report themightymac June 1, 2018 11:06 PM BST
Yes mate, I actually had a decent bet on it. Just got caught last time out at good odds. Hope you had a few shillings on!
Report themightymac June 1, 2018 11:09 PM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10

MONDAY (28/05/18)
Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)  2nd 7/1  -£10
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)  2nd 15/8  -£10
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)  2nd 5/4  -£10
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)  WON 4/1  +£40

TUESDAY (29/05/18)
Mayaadeen (4.45 Gowran Park)  3rd 4/6  -£10

WEDNESDAY (30/05/18)
Amadeus (5.00 Beverley) LOST 8th 9/4  -£10
Timiniya (6.55 Gowran Park) N/R
Smile A Mile (6.35 Ripon) N/R

THURSDAY (30/05/18)
Herm (5.20 Wolverhampton) VOID
Wells De Lune (8.00 Ffos Las)  2nd 1/2  -£10

FRIDAY (01/06/18)
Victory Wave (8.50 Goodwood) 4th 7/1  -£10


Overall Profit/Loss    +£20
Report themightymac June 1, 2018 11:30 PM BST
Could be back to square one after tomorrow. Hard to see Kew Gardens winning the Derby, but stranger things have happened.

SATURDAY (02/06/18)

Sugar Coating (4.50 Doncaster)
Kew Gardens (4.30 Epsom)
Report swift-tuttle June 2, 2018 9:22 AM BST
Donnacha O'Brien, who already has the Guineas and Oaks under his belt this season, rides Kew Gardens. Trading at 38 to back and 40 to lay on here at present, wouldn't be surprised to see it trade a lot lower than that.
Report themightymac June 2, 2018 10:52 PM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10

MONDAY (28/05/18)
Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)  2nd 7/1  -£10
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)  2nd 15/8  -£10
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)  2nd 5/4  -£10
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)  WON 4/1  +£40

TUESDAY (29/05/18)
Mayaadeen (4.45 Gowran Park)  3rd 4/6  -£10

WEDNESDAY (30/05/18)
Amadeus (5.00 Beverley) LOST 8th 9/4  -£10
Timiniya (6.55 Gowran Park) N/R
Smile A Mile (6.35 Ripon) N/R

THURSDAY (30/05/18)
Herm (5.20 Wolverhampton) VOID
Wells De Lune (8.00 Ffos Las)  2nd 1/2  -£10

FRIDAY (01/06/18)
Victory Wave (8.50 Goodwood) 4th 7/1  -£10

SATURDAY (02/06/18)
Sugar Coating (4.50 Doncaster) 3rd 11/4  -£10
Kew Gardens (4.30 Epsom) 9th 16/1  -£10


Overall Profit/Loss    +£00
Report debbiedoesgallas June 2, 2018 11:03 PM BST
Does backing Olly Murphy runners at Fakenham class as a system ?

First one looks like a plot if I ever did see one
Report themightymac June 2, 2018 11:09 PM BST
SUNDAY (02/06/18)

Coral Beach (2.10 Listowel)
Report themightymac June 2, 2018 11:15 PM BST
Why not ddg. It would be interesting to see his stats at Fakenham. Perhaps someone can post his stats. He is a trainer that I cant catch but I shall have a look at that one, thanks.
Report themightymac June 2, 2018 11:21 PM BST
Olly Murphy (Fakenham)

15-48 (31%) +£19.93
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 12:35 AM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10

MONDAY (28/05/18)
Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)  2nd 7/1  -£10
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)  2nd 15/8  -£10
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)  2nd 5/4  -£10
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)  WON 4/1  +£40

TUESDAY (29/05/18)
Mayaadeen (4.45 Gowran Park)  3rd 4/6  -£10

WEDNESDAY (30/05/18)
Amadeus (5.00 Beverley) LOST 8th 9/4  -£10
Timiniya (6.55 Gowran Park) N/R
Smile A Mile (6.35 Ripon) N/R

THURSDAY (30/05/18)
Herm (5.20 Wolverhampton) VOID
Wells De Lune (8.00 Ffos Las)  2nd 1/2  -£10

FRIDAY (01/06/18)
Victory Wave (8.50 Goodwood) 4th 7/1  -£10

SATURDAY (02/06/18)
Sugar Coating (4.50 Doncaster) 3rd 11/4  -£10
Kew Gardens (4.30 Epsom) 9th 16/1  -£10

SUNDAY (02/06/18)
Coral Beach (2.10 Listowel) 2nd Evs  -£10


Overall Profit/Loss    -£10
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 1:02 AM BST
MONDAY (03/06/18)

Timiniya (4.15 Gowran Park)
Fly The Nest (5.15 Windsor)
Report OliasOfSunhillow June 4, 2018 8:05 AM BST
Let me save you a lot of time. From 2009 to 2017 there have been 4,238 beatne odds on to BFSP horses run again and next time out backing them all to BFSP would have yielded a pre comm profit of +73.2 pts, in other words a small loss. Your results to date are a fair reflection of where this is going. Better than being an overall heavy loser but no route to profit.
Report doorman99 June 4, 2018 8:20 AM BST
And what about being placed Olias? Cos over the stated days this last week he would be ahead just doing them to place.
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 4:50 PM BST
Thanks for your input Olias. On the strength of your long term stats, it`s probably a waste of time and too much hassle. So after today, I shall quit. Worst scenario, is a total loss of £20 if Fly The Nest gets beat.
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 4:50 PM BST
Thanks for your input Olias. On the strength of your long term stats, it`s probably a waste of time and too much hassle. So after today, I shall quit. Worst scenario, is a total loss of £20 if Fly The Nest gets beat.
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 4:52 PM BST
.... well that is to a £10 stake so my overall loss shall be £100 to a £50 level stake which I was doing the past 11 days. Still, perhaps FTN will win at Windsor tonight to put in profit.
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 7:53 PM BST
FRIDAY (25/05/18)
NO HORSES RUNNING

SATURDAY (25/05/18)
Spanish Point (4.10 Curragh) LOST 50/1  -£10
Applesandpierres (2.40 Cartmel)  WON 8/1  +£80

SUNDAY (27/05/18)
Latrobe (3.00 Curragh) 2nd 3/1  -£10
Gardens Of Babylon (5.55 Curragh) N/R
Ringa Ding Ding (3.25 Fontwell) 2nd 11/8  -£10

MONDAY (28/05/18)
Jumping Jack (2.00 Huntingdon)  2nd 7/1  -£10
Photographer (3.30 Leicester)  2nd 15/8  -£10
Mordin (5.25 Windsor)  2nd 5/4  -£10
Awayinthewest (6.30 Ballinrobe)  WON 4/1  +£40

TUESDAY (29/05/18)
Mayaadeen (4.45 Gowran Park)  3rd 4/6  -£10

WEDNESDAY (30/05/18)
Amadeus (5.00 Beverley) LOST 8th 9/4  -£10
Timiniya (6.55 Gowran Park) N/R
Smile A Mile (6.35 Ripon) N/R

THURSDAY (30/05/18)
Herm (5.20 Wolverhampton) VOID
Wells De Lune (8.00 Ffos Las)  2nd 1/2  -£10

FRIDAY (01/06/18)
Victory Wave (8.50 Goodwood) 4th 7/1  -£10

SATURDAY (02/06/18)
Sugar Coating (4.50 Doncaster) 3rd 11/4  -£10
Kew Gardens (4.30 Epsom) 9th 16/1  -£10

SUNDAY (02/06/18)
Coral Beach (2.10 Listowel) 2nd Evs  -£10

MONDAY (03/06/18)
Timiniya (4.15 Gowran Park)  5th 13/2  -£10
Fly The Nest (5.15 Windsor) 7th 4/1  -£10


Overall Profit/Loss    -£30
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 7:54 PM BST
Mission abandoned. Time to move on. Good luck to all.
Report lead on June 4, 2018 8:12 PM BST
Bring back yer picture puzzle,mac.Or even better a new improved version of the old Riddle-me-Ree from the Daily ExpressHappy
Report Grok June 4, 2018 9:00 PM BST
I thought I had found a winning system.

    Betfair only                                                                   
    Jan01-Jun30        P/L 2015        P/L 2014        P/L 2013        P/L 2012        P/L 2011        P/L 2010        P/L 2009        7 yr total   
    limit 1        728         345         2,704         1,468         684         1207         2,282         9,418    
    limit 2        986         1,969         3,694         675         1,021         1,614         3,711         13,670    
    limit 3        1,887         1,030         4,680         939         1,000         1,123         6,266         16,925    
    limit 4        4,514         -690         5,481         1,543         4,601         5,883         11,046         32,378    
    limit 5        7,101         600         6,284         3,253         7,608         10238         14,627         49,711    
    limit 6        11,177         5,377         6,722         5,686         12,651         11318         20,528         73,459    
Report Grok June 4, 2018 9:10 PM BST
Then the SHTF...
    Betfair+PaddyP                                   
    jan-jun        P/L 2018        P/L 2017        P/L 2016        3 yr total   
    limit 1        204         -1,468         -791         -2,055    
    limit 2        -1,644         -2,211         -598         -4,452    
    limit 3        -2,520         -2,330         556         -4,295    
    limit 4        -2,281         -4,589         -2,217         -9,087    
    limit 5        -1,181         -3,367         -1,344         -5,892    
    limit 6        235         -1,970         -602         -2,337    
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 10:32 PM BST
Early figures are outstanding Grok. What went wrong from 2016?
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 10:34 PM BST
Thanks lead on. I shall so that. Mind you, solving the puzzle shall be more entertaining than the tips Wink
Report themightymac June 4, 2018 10:35 PM BST
..... mind you, the photo tip showed a nice profit over the time it lasted!
Report Grok June 5, 2018 3:59 PM BST
What went wrong from 2016?

7 good years to be followed by 7 lean years? Scared 
Market forces?
PP knows where the money is and lays off accordingly?

I keep totals of what price is best to back at... its nearly all change.

    price        7yr avg        3yr avg   
    limit1        90         262    
    limit2        -246         -255    
    limit3        210         1,830    
    limit4        797         839    
    limit5        -938         877    
    limit6        -252         81    
    limit7        -1,493         -239    
    limit8        -323         94    
    limit9        -1794         -1340    
    limit10        -1122         -2925    
    limit11        1074         -51    
    limit12        3562         1626    
    limit13        814         -1176    
    limit14        2244         575    
                       
    total        2624         198    
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