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welshbandit
30 Apr 18 14:20
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Date Joined: 16 Feb 04
| Topic/replies: 405 | Blogger: welshbandit's blog
Amazing how so many people get sucked in by him. Essentially he bluffs and tries to justify with long phrases . In the first at Salisbury he said progeny of Kodiac had the highest percentage of winners on soft. When in fact its actually the lowest percentage.

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By:
loper
When: 30 Apr 18 14:25
People only listen to Comical Willow for the entertainment value.
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 14:27
he,s doing a nevo trying to look clever using horses pedigrees  to find winners,nevo lasted 3 months before admitting defeat and returning to backing favs and following the market
By:
welshbandit
When: 30 Apr 18 14:28
He’s awful
By:
duncan idaho
When: 30 Apr 18 14:31
bit rich slagging someone off when you dont listen properly to what they are saying...he was referring to 'True Strike Rate' figures he had researched for his blog


The true value of a sire's win-loss record on soft and heavy going

[i]I am a little short of time but wished to present the following data to support my appearance on Racing UK this afternoon from Salisbury. (I will flesh out the details at a time when I am not having to learn form details of all the runners too.)

The question is: how do we evaluate a sire's true Strike Rate on soft and heavy going using only observed win-loss records, given the different sample sizes? A selection of some of the data (extracted from www.proformracing.com) is presented in the table.

Sire    R    W    SR    IV    PL    ROI    xW    AE
Aqlaam    145    17    11.72    1.18    50.1    34.6    15.0    1.14
Aussie Rules    278    19    6.83    0.76    538.0    193.5    23.0    0.83
Authorized    380    67    17.63    1.84    198.9    52.3    52.0    1.29
Born To Sea    96    11    11.46    1.17    33.0    34.4    11.7    0.94

In small samples, such as that of Born To Sea, there is more randomness in a statistic, especially where the numbers come from just one horse.

One way to smooth out the different randomness in each sample-size is to use the beta-binomial distribution. We fit parameters W and L, constituting a prior sample of wins and losses to be added to a stallion's record, by maximising the likelihood of a the beta-binomial using observed data since 1997 on soft and heavy going in Britain and Ireland.

It's the results you will be interested in, but here briefly is how I did it in R:

First, I wrote a likelihood function which calculates the sum of the logs (the exponent of this is the same as the product of all the probabilities) of the density of the beta-binomial distribution for each sire's win-loss record:

log.like
By:
welshbandit
When: 30 Apr 18 14:34
And he got it totally wrong
By:
duncan idaho
When: 30 Apr 18 14:34
that didnt reproduce fully but hey ho
By:
deadbrain59
When: 30 Apr 18 14:34
stride patterns useless, ties himself up in knots.
By:
houseofpain
When: 30 Apr 18 14:34
Tying himself in knots as per usual
By:
duncan idaho
When: 30 Apr 18 14:34
he got it totally wrong based on 1 race?! dont be silly
By:
welshbandit
When: 30 Apr 18 14:36
On most races - it’s total nonsense
By:
duncan idaho
When: 30 Apr 18 14:39
iyo
By:
loper
When: 30 Apr 18 14:39
The true value of a sire's win-loss record on soft and heavy going

[i]I am a little short of time but wished to present the following data to support my appearance on Racing UK this afternoon from Salisbury. (I will flesh out the details at a time when I am not having to learn form details of all the runners too.)

The question is: how do we evaluate a sire's true Strike Rate on soft and heavy going using only observed win-loss records, given the different sample sizes? A selection of some of the data (extracted from www.proformracing.com) is presented in the table.

Sire    R    W    SR    IV    PL    ROI    xW    AE
Aqlaam    145    17    11.72    1.18    50.1    34.6    15.0    1.14
Aussie Rules    278    19    6.83    0.76    538.0    193.5    23.0    0.83
Authorized    380    67    17.63    1.84    198.9    52.3    52.0    1.29
Born To Sea    96    11    11.46    1.17    33.0    34.4    11.7    0.94

In small samples, such as that of Born To Sea, there is more randomness in a statistic, especially where the numbers come from just one horse.

One way to smooth out the different randomness in each sample-size is to use the beta-binomial distribution. We fit parameters W and L, constituting a prior sample of wins and losses to be added to a stallion's record, by maximising the likelihood of a the beta-binomial using observed data since 1997 on soft and heavy going in Britain and Ireland.

It's the results you will be interested in, but here briefly is how I did it in R:

First, I wrote a likelihood function which calculates the sum of the logs (the exponent of this is the same as the product of all the probabilities) of the density of the beta-binomial distribution for each sire's win-loss record:

log.like


WTF has the shiite above got to do with understanding racing.

It is simply the logic of someone too lazy to follow racing closely on a daily basis. Using IT as a substitute for objective review of actual races is the lazy man's approach.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 30 Apr 18 14:40
cracksman topclass as is enable, GOSDEN/DETTORI
By:
welshbandit
When: 30 Apr 18 14:40
Obviously it’s my opinion otherwise I wouldn’t have posted it
By:
mouse muldoon
When: 30 Apr 18 14:40
Did he say when his book is due to be published?
By:
deadbrain59
When: 30 Apr 18 14:41
LOPERLaugh
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 18 14:42
Comparing Willo (who does his own mathematical analysis and stats) to Nevo (who does what exactly...)?

Duncan you may as well save your breath, Willo's wasted on this lot.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 30 Apr 18 14:46
no axe to grind, George...was merely trying to point out that welshbullsh!t's OP was based on his inability to listen properly and thus quite false
By:
welshbandit
When: 30 Apr 18 14:56
In your opinion, d*ickhead
By:
onlooker
When: 30 Apr 18 15:06
loper    30 Apr 18 14:39 

WTF has the shiite above got to do with understanding racing.

It is simply the logic of someone too lazy to follow racing closely on a daily basis. Using IT as a substitute for objective review of actual races is the lazy man's approach.
--------------

Absolutely correct - loper.

Both STATS and Academia have no real place in racing - are of no use in finding both the winners of races - AND a PROPER BET.

STATS - Speed Figures - et al - are, as loper intimates - simply excuse theories and methodologies for people who are not capable of performing proper FORM STUDY
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 15:09
a COTC who can give a corret ground reading to punters will be far more valuable than all of willo,s bullshopite
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 18 15:09
There ya go, Willo told you unequivocally before the race, Sixties Icon on the soft
By:
jamesdean
When: 30 Apr 18 15:13
He also mentioned about 6 others, George.

Not only that but he said 2 horses might shock, 2 might not and the fav will be up there!
All bases covered and no mention of which horses may or may not shock, just that 2 might.
Great stuff, well worth the subs
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 15:14
no his point was bookmakers,layers on here dont no, sixties icons for example like soft ground,and theres value to be had,when in fact we all no layers,bookies,bookies grapevine are far more clued in than willo will ever be
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 15:17
one would imagine any loon can deduce that any horse running today ion the opinion of connections,pedigrees doesn't want it firm, Laugh,once you've deduced the easy bit those likely to be suited to the going is to no which ones are off slightly harder, LaughLaugh
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 15:27
has willo unearthed any short price favs we can lay at Salisbury ,who,s sires,pedigree previous form suggest they need the ground like the m25, thought not LaughLaugh
By:
par
When: 30 Apr 18 15:31
is this Thirsk analysis a get up to annoy people,
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 15:45
willo best horse by a mile
best prices,best horse under the conditions, under his knew system top rated

hammered,busted flush

market mover wins,

CryCry, needs to give nevo a ring
By:
jimeen
When: 30 Apr 18 15:46
Fancied lady bergamot there strongly and thought Luke Catton was riding Pretty Jewel.
There isn’t many on RUK who I mute but he’s one.
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 15:53
the 3rd fancied strongly by willo and by master craftsmen came out best on willo,s pre race ramblings,willo now says will be better on summer grpiund in mid season,so wtf was the point in his system to find horses who,ll act in todays ground,
willo cracks it ,finds a system to pinpoint heavy ground horses in april so hecan back them on fast ground in the summer,sounds lioke another gold mine for the bookmakers, LaughLaughLaughLaugh,
willo must be a Trojan horse for bookmakers
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 18 15:57
So jimeen is one who has Willo on mute...but still hears what he says.

The Sixties Icon runner traded 1.07 in the run, that's as good as a winner!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 18 15:58
You a lip reader then, jimeen?
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 16:03
George b
unfortunately under willo,s system the 3rd by master cratsmen came out in front of the sixties icon runners in that race,you need to pay more attention
By:
ribero1
When: 30 Apr 18 16:06
Traded at 1.07 is as good as a winner,well that's certainly news to me.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 18 16:19
thar ya go, 1sttp, just for you, a Mastercraftsman winner
By:
loper
When: 30 Apr 18 16:25
Lol!

Willow tipped up the fav, said he didn't fancy the other 2, and that Passing Glance's soft ground figures were amazing!!!Laugh
By:
parispike
When: 30 Apr 18 16:48
Watch out for the new JW book. “ Willownomics”. Loosely based on the bestselling “Freakonomics” it’s bound to entertain, fascinate and inspire you. Even if you don’t understand a phucking word in it!
By:
1st time poster
When: 30 Apr 18 16:52
said that was top[ rated under his system but didn't give it a single mention pre race ,which suggests he doesn't think much of his own research
By:
loper
When: 30 Apr 18 16:54
....plus he said 'look at horses action! Tailor made for soft ground'.

Shame he's never been arsed to watch the horse previously or even watch it go to post today.
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