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Andrew in Sweden
23 Apr 18 13:33
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 12,302 | Blogger: Andrew in Sweden's blog
I'm going to post a daily nap lay to a level stake until the end of the month. I'll keep the prices short enough to make it interesting, and only use this thread to monitor progress. 

18.00 Navan Washington DC

One of the stables global travellers and won this race last year after a prep race in Meydan. AOB taking the same route this year after finishing 4th there, but all wins have been on good or firm. Will be soft today and showers are forecast for this afternoon. I also feel WDC needs 6f to be at his best these days, certainly his style of running would support it. The top 3 in the betting are close on ratings, and the English runner Final Venture is not out of it, but i think Son of Rest (who is probably better than his form would suggest) will win it. Good luck all.

Lay at 2.60

23-Apr-18
09:57:50    18:00 Navan
Washington DC - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:123248570104 | Matched: 23-Apr-18 12:56:56    Lay    2.60    50.00    80.00
50.00
Matched
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Report deadbrain59 May 17, 2019 7:48 PM BST
I would have layed your selection, all day long but im busy with laying r moore9/4 under.thats how it goes gl
Report Trusty May 18, 2019 7:53 AM BST
Time for something different. How about laying Netherlands @ 1.8 or better to win Eurovision. Mediocre song, drawn in 12 position of 26 runner field; might win because we all know Eurovision jury voting is all political bullshit and nothing to do with the song but at the price, if it wins good luck to them but at the price I'll take my chance.
Report deadbrain59 May 18, 2019 8:09 AM BST
abbas,waterloo was 4/5,they romped itCool
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 18, 2019 10:29 AM BST
Hi Guys,

I looked through the days cards earlier and although i didn't see a stand out lay there were a couple that looked interesting. One of them was Jens Boy at Bangor, but it's drifted to 11/4. I may post this one if it comes back in the betting. The other one runs this evening.

A good card at Auteuil this afternoon (and tomorrow). I think the local favourite will win the big one even though WPM runs 5 including the well regarded 2nd favourite.

I'm interested in how Jash runs at Newmarket and if he advertises Ten Sovereigns Middle Park form. Well ahead on ratings and if this was 6f i would certainly back him.

Trusty,

I didn't even know it was Eurovision Saturday so i listened to the Netherlands and Swedish entries on YouTube out of curiosity. To be honest i didn't think either was that good, and at 1.8 the rest must be quite poor. Political, cultural and neighbour biases also affect the voting so any bet has to be for fun only.

Sweden generally do well in the contest but my lucky pin would be with Azerbaijan (28 with Betfred) who will get a lot of neighbourly love votes. Good luck.

Deadbrain,

Good memory (1974) i'm surprised there was betting on it in those days.
Report leif May 18, 2019 11:59 AM BST
What about the Godolphin horse in the 8.35 Don?

10/11 poke currently.

Beaten 4 out of 6 when Fav. Won a H'cap at Redcar last time and dropped a furlong today having won over a mile last time. Ran twice over 10F before that. Up 6lb for 2 length win. Not sure it would be that price if it was trained lower down the ladder.

Re: Eurovision

That bird with the 8 ft pole up her jacksie should win it just for the sheer bravery of it. Hope she doesn't hit the deck mid song ;))
Report happysandwich May 18, 2019 1:57 PM BST
Andrew

As soon as I saw the colours of Jens Boy and it’s woeful form I could see £ signs when I closed my eyes. I’m laying it.

A mate of mine had a share in a leg of a horse with that Middleham Park racing syndicate (birthday present from his partners Mum). It was embarrassing to go to see it run. They eventually changed it for him for Madame Vitesse and all that does is eat the top quality food he pays for (it doesn't even leave him a tip). Laugh

Strangely it runs tomorrow Ripon 3.10 Madame Vitesse but too big a price for a lay bet.

Neither of us will be going from London to Ripon any time soon.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 18, 2019 5:02 PM BST
Happysandwich,

Well done with the lay, it would probably have been my selection (ref my earlier post) if i had posted when it was 9/4 this morning. Lightly raced, but the only 2 lines of form worth looking at were not that good anyway. His 2nd position was in a 4 runner bumper, one of which was 16/1.

His 4th of 11 LTO (beaten 23L) may have looked good on paper initially, but the 7th to 11th places were 50/1 x 2, 100/1, 150/1 and 200/1. First run in a handicap today and his mark looked high enough. Added to that Bangor is a fairly sharp track, a lot different to Newbury and Chepstow. It was a poor race, but he's also poor and 9/4 was surely factoring in connections.

Leif,

Good luck with your lay selection.
Report Trusty May 20, 2019 10:03 AM BST
Probably won't bother with Eurovision anymore! All very strange as Netherlands lost the Jury vote and lost the Public vote but was the net winner! Someone was placing bets of 80K several times around evens in running and having touched 2/1 before the public vote was announced, was back to evens as the first public vote was announced and was 1.4 shortly after that.

Clearly some significant inside traders but as normal nothing will be investigated.

Seems to me that Eurovision should be decided by public vote only, what do they need a professional jury vote for; who gave only 40 odd points to Norway when the public gave them nearly 300.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 11:51 AM BST
Agreed Trusty and i've often wondered if the whole thing was **** for benefit of the music industry. The result is often 'known' beforehand (or appears to be) and favourites generally do well. 1.8 prior to the off tells it's own story.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 11:51 AM BST
****
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 11:52 AM BST
the word in **** rhymes with bigged
Report happysandwich May 20, 2019 3:36 PM BST
Because Trusty happened to mention Netherlands at 1.8 for the Eurovision I watched it on the exchange. It was 4/5 all the time except for a blip when it went 15/8 but soon back to 4/5.

At one point the 12 points were going to anywhere except the Netherlands and still it stayed at 4/5, that’s what struck me as strange.

The moral of the story is to find somebody high up in the music industry next year.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 6:16 PM BST
Hi Guys,

I missed out posting two lays over the weekend simply because of drifts in the betting (significantly yesterday) but there shouldn't be any such issues this evening (says me typing quickly) as the intended selection is short enough.

I actually considered the so called 'good thing' at Windsor, The Tin Man and if i hadn't lost on Friday may even have posted this one. A wonderful sprinter it has to be said, and has won this race twice before, including last year, but he's got a Group 1 penalty of 7 lb tonight and the field is not that bad. He's been very well supported, but might just get beat.

On to the real lay, but the reasoning will be short as i'm reviewing documents (working at home).

Leicester 7.15 - Casement

A 5 year old Casamento gelding trained by Mick Appleby in Oakham, not that far away from the course. I should have asked Barton Banks' advice (he's connected to the stable as an owner)

Winner of 2 from 14, both over 8f, a maiden (as a 3 year old, albeit at odds of 1/4) and a handicap in April.

Highest winning mark is 72, runs off 78 tonight.

Has raced 4 times over 10f (distance tonight) but only one of significance and that was runner-up in a 4 horse race.

Trainer and jockey out of form recently.

First 3 in the betting are only separated by 3 lb, but the outsider is not out of it.

An open race, one that i fancy Megan to win on Meagher's Flag. If he could reproduced anything like his his early 2 year old form behind a couple of AOB's (including Saxon Warrior no less) he would win this, but even recent form gives him a decent chance.

Lay Casement @ 6/4.

Good luck all.
Report Lampus May 20, 2019 6:26 PM BST
Good Evening ANDREW
Good Luck  Happy
Report Lampus May 20, 2019 6:38 PM BST
TTMHappy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 6:38 PM BST
The Tin Man 3rd @ 11/10 Happy
Report leif May 20, 2019 6:52 PM BST
It was posted on the front of the RP that the trainer said the horse 'would come on for the run'. That was enough to put me off but evidently not enough caveat to stop it shortening it up to 11/10.
Report england_v_south_afri May 20, 2019 6:54 PM BST
GL Andrew in the 7.15. Had a small lay as well.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 7:01 PM BST
Leif,

It has a good record fresh and clearly the form horse but 11/10 was skinny with the penalty.

england_v_south_afri,

Good luck. I can't lay it (you probably know the score) but i would have done with an open account. I think Megan will make the running here for a stamina test (and win).
Report happysandwich May 20, 2019 7:05 PM BST
Thanks for putting the effort in Andrew.

Considering we are on the short price fav I can see this one being a real ‘nailbiter’ but hopefully in our favour.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 7:09 PM BST
Happysandwich.

Thank you. Of course i wish i had posted TTM, but i'm Ok with this one as well. Good luck to all that lay it.
Report leif May 20, 2019 7:16 PM BST
They're hitting up the Nicholl's horse.

gl with the lay
Report Lampus May 20, 2019 7:18 PM BST
THANK YOU ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report Insideshrewdie May 20, 2019 7:18 PM BST
WD Andrew superb...great ride Hayley Turner ;-)
Report england_v_south_afri May 20, 2019 7:18 PM BST
VWD Cool

I love Hayley Turner Laugh
Report leif May 20, 2019 7:21 PM BST
Back to the drawing board for Appleby. The step up in trip thingo backfired.
Report happysandwich May 20, 2019 7:22 PM BST
Nail biter?

What am I talking about it was never in doubt.

Thanks Andrew.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 7:23 PM BST
Thanks for the comments guys.

Good result for layers with the 7/4 fav beaten over 10L, but i was surprised Megan didn't lead. I guess we will see it at Wincanton soon.
Report Lucky Luciano May 20, 2019 7:41 PM BST
2019-05-20
19:17    165163637984    2019-05-20
17:48    GB Leic 20th May / 19:15 1m2f Hcap / Casement
Lay         2.64    50.00    Won         50.00

Andrew,
Had a look this afternoon at the evening cards and layed this before you posted because of basically a few of the same reasons that you wrote.
Didnt see your post till a few minutes ago and would have gone in again if i had but well done and your modus operandi must be rubbing off on me
Report stewarty b May 20, 2019 7:54 PM BST
I guess we will see it at Wincanton soon. LaughLaugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 9:00 PM BST
Lucky,

Well done with the lay (and cash). We obviously both thought stamina would be an issue and so it was. Added to that he had to win off a highest ever mark and MA out of form was a bonus.

Stewart,

It was gelded in September 2018 and transferred to PN a month later. Well backed tonight, ran poorly, so it wouldn't surprise me if it's next race was over a few hurdles, even though he's not bred for it.

Status so far

26th Jan - Cheltenham 2.25 - Elegant Escape (no price for the lay) 2nd (SP 2/1). Posted on the random daily lay thread. Happy
5th May - Gowran Park 3.20 - Could Be King (lay @ 11/8) 4th (SP 2/1) Happy
8th May - Chester 4.35 - Chapelli (lay @ 5/2) 12th (SP 4/1) Happy
10th May - Ripon 7.30 - Canford Bay (lay @ 15/8) Won (SP 2/1) Sad
11th May - Warwick 7.00 - Poppy Kay (lay @ 2/1) 5th (SP 5/1) Happy
14th May - Ffos Las 8.00 - Kilmoganny (lay @ 5/2) PU (SP 3/1) Happy
17th May - York 3.35 - UAE Prince (lay @ 2/1) Won (SP 15/8) Sad
20th May - Leicester 7.15 Casement (lay @ 6/4) 3rd (SP 7/4) Happy
Report kemo sabe May 21, 2019 1:18 PM BST
as a postscript to the casement lay ,,, i was aware they were really keen on it and connections were punting it , whch they did , I was minded like you to lay it and was pleased to see it shorten , Yet the bell lot really liked the chances of theirs with the added idea that the horse would only go for hayley ,,, so i was staggered and pleased to see it drift ,    so i didnt lay i punted the bell horse, Its taken a while for hayley to mend her bridges with michael and i hope this starts a new time for her after a couple of years drifting ,
Report tanglefoot May 21, 2019 1:58 PM BST
Backed,Casement and the connections punted it, how could I go wrong, what does AIS know,that connections don’t know. Grin
Report happysandwich May 21, 2019 3:59 PM BST
Perhaps they should have read Andrew’s assessment of the race before they made themselves look fools by giving their money away.

Sorry Andrew, but you’re much too much of a gentleman and far too polite to tell it as it is. Laugh

Tangle,

Hope you're joking too Grin
Report happysandwich May 21, 2019 5:27 PM BST
kemo sabe,

Saw the trolls got to you a little on your “todays-thoughts” thread and most of us on here on your side. Don’t give them the oxygen by replying to them, it is as simple as that.

Without the input that posters like you write this place would be clogged up with the dregs of society that you find in betting shops.

Remember there are hundreds of forumites who hang on every word you type but don’t reply, and some of those can’t even read or write. Laugh
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 21, 2019 5:32 PM BST

May 21, 2019 -- 5:27PM, happysandwich wrote:


kemo sabe,Saw the trolls got to you a little on your “todays-thoughts” thread and most of us on here on your side. Don’t give them the oxygen by replying to them, it is as simple as that.Without the input that posters like you write this place would be clogged up with the dregs of society that you find in betting shops.Remember there are hundreds of forumites who hang on every word you type but don’t reply, and some of those can’t even read or write.


cani weed oh rite...LaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh

Report tanglefoot May 21, 2019 5:36 PM BST
Happy, I backed Hayley, just a bit of idioticy Cool
Report kemo sabe May 21, 2019 6:00 PM BST
not sure they got to me , im just sad that their lives worked out in the way they did , nothing to say, nothing to contribute to the debate ,  this is their life , whereas last week i was in the isle of mull , this week edinburgh,  next week cheshire, then france , racing is a nice distraction which makes and has made me able to travel and live in lovely places , Ive had a little more time to  share my stuff , to some extent i know it making it blindly obvious to the drongos i do what i do ,  on a daily basis and can show that by results,,, must get up their noses ,

even more so that i dont just say this will win ,,i actually give why connectons like its chances , that i know is annoying ,,, afterall the stuff i put up isnt available to them is it ,,, thats the real unfairness , why has kemo this stuff ,,, its not possible ,,, but he keeps doing it ,,, so the resentment builds , they wait for total failure , im realistic enough to know i cant win all the time ,,,, but when i put up a big odds on lay and say that the 16s outsider with back to a jockey that won on it years ago over hurdles to get it jumping and in a rhythm ,,,, and its in a three horse race , im amused to know how annoyed and wound up they will be ,,,

so i chuckle and like tom the cabin boy in captain pugwash  smile and say nothing ;

for me the world continues to spin with winners and losers , i just didnt need the hassle of if i put up a loser i got crap ,

i never posted to show how clever i am ,,, im not ,,, i work hard to get the stuff i do get , i was meerly trying to amuse and give the forum another view from ,,, this jockey is bent , whos sleeping with etc , and name yr fav pop songs , ,

there was an inevitability i would feel this way , but i enjoy dipping in and out i just will be less definate as to what im punting , yet i may add stuff to others views ,, or maybe not
Report Insideshrewdie May 21, 2019 6:06 PM BST
Kemo....don't let the muppets put you off...keep up your posting...

[Roger the cabin boy btw ;-)]
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 21, 2019 6:26 PM BST
Hi Guys,

Many thanks for the comments, much appreciated.

Happysandwich,

Thank you, i'm not sure my ex would call me a gentleman Wink

Tangle,

I'm like Manuel in Fawlty Towers, i know nothing and have even less connections. Laugh

I haven't had much chance to look at cards today (work) but found a couple of possibles for a short list, the first in the 6.30 Sligo, Pleasurable who i thought was under-priced, she has to give a lot of weight away and being a Camelot filly is dropping back to 6f a positive ?. Out of form trainer as well. Mind you it's a very poor race, so it's a risky lay.

I decided to go with the other that actually has a similar profile.

Sligo 7.00 - Isle Of Shadows

A 3 year old Tamayuz fully trained by Paddy Twomay in the lovely county of Tipperary.

5 runs all as a 2 year old without winning, her best placing being 4th of 12 (beaten 3L) in a nursery over 7f at Dundalk.

All runs over 7f with exception of her debut run over 5f.

First run since October last year.

Has regressed in the rating from 60 (runs of 54 tonight) but is lightly raced of course.

Sired by a miler (a good one) and unraced dams offspring (4 in total but only 2 winners) have tended to race over 7-8f, so like the other possible lay stepping back to 6f may not be a positive.

An open handicap with several inexposed types so difficult to pick a winner.

Draw is a negative.

Lay Isle Of Shadows @ 5/2.

Good luck all.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 21, 2019 6:30 PM BST
# unexposed

I can spell, not type Wink
Report Lampus May 21, 2019 6:37 PM BST
Good  Luck ANDREW Happy
Report happysandwich May 21, 2019 6:44 PM BST
Sligo 6.30 Pleasurable 1st 100/30 Fav

Blimey – that was close. Grin
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 21, 2019 6:47 PM BST
Swerved one there, but i couldn't have posted it anyway at the odds and it was a risky lay as i stated.

Kemo,

I think you're reading too much into posters comments, i looked at some of your threads and couldn't see any significant barracking. The forum may not be as it once was and adulation for picking winners is sparse on occasions. I tipped a 20/1 winner on the 3.25 Auteil-French Gold Cup thread (won at 10/1) but hardly a mention. I don't mind to be honest, the forum is a bit of relaxation for me after a days concentration at work.

As for travelling, i could write a book on it Wink

Good luck.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 21, 2019 6:49 PM BST
Happysandwich,

Exactly. Good that it drifted although i think i always preferred the other one anyway.
Report stridingedge May 21, 2019 6:58 PM BST
GL ANdrew mate

the betting on this horse has been quite strange for it's form!
Report stridingedge May 21, 2019 7:00 PM BST
ie there seem to be some pretty confident people this one is doing something.

I suppose the oppostion looks pretty shocking in depth saying that.
Report stridingedge May 21, 2019 7:04 PM BST
well done saved by the only other one in the market

2.64 Shocked
Report stridingedge May 21, 2019 7:04 PM BST
well done saved by the only other one in the market

2.64 Shocked
Report Lampus May 21, 2019 7:05 PM BST
THANK YOU   ANDREW  Happy
Report england_v_south_afri May 21, 2019 7:05 PM BST
WD Andrew !
Report sofiakenny May 21, 2019 7:06 PM BST
A soiled pair of undercrackers is a small price to pay.Plain
Report happysandwich May 21, 2019 7:07 PM BST
Thanks Andrew

I knew you couldn’t pick two winners at the same meeting - you’re useless. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 21, 2019 7:16 PM BST
Many thanks for the comments Guys.

Striding,

The betting was certainly strange, was half of Sligo on it. It was lightly raced and would improve, but there were reasons for laying it. How could you back it at 6/4 on form alone unless you had decent information. Mind you an in-form trainer.

Sofiakenny,

Well financially it didn't affect me, but i know others do lay them so i make the effort to pick what i consider a good one. Got away with it tonight .............. just !

Happysandwich,

That's the most accurate post on this thread Laugh
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 21, 2019 7:23 PM BST
well done aundy,,
Report GLASGOWCALLING May 21, 2019 7:34 PM BST
.. Well Done Andrew. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 21, 2019 8:15 PM BST
Glasgow and Cardenden,

Thank you

Status so far

26th Jan - Cheltenham 2.25 - Elegant Escape (no lay price) 2nd (SP 2/1). Posted on random daily lay thread. Happy
5th May - Gowran Park 3.20 - Could Be King (lay @ 11/8) 4th (SP 2/1) Happy
8th May - Chester 4.35 - Chapelli (lay @ 5/2) 12th (SP 4/1) Happy
10th May - Ripon 7.30 - Canford Bay (lay @ 15/8) Won (SP 2/1) Sad
11th May - Warwick 7.00 - Poppy Kay (lay @ 2/1) 5th (SP 5/1) Happy
14th May - Ffos Las 8.00 - Kilmoganny (lay @ 5/2) PU (SP 3/1) Happy
17th May - York 3.35 - UAE Prince (lay @ 2/1) Won (SP 15/8) Sad
20th May - Leicester 7.15 - Casement (lay @ 6/4) 3rd (SP 7/4) Happy
21st May - Sligo 7.00 - Isle Of Shadows (Lay @ 5/2) 2nd (SP 6/4) Happy

I noticed that Calyx is down to run in the Sandy Lane on Saturday. He may well win and i hope he does ........ but he may not win his next race at Royal Ascot Wink
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 21, 2019 8:19 PM BST
im not f  uckin cardenden aundry  ffs ,, i am not pumping glasgows mum,,jesus
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 22, 2019 5:34 PM BST
Hi Guys,

No lay post this evening, i've had almost a full day of review meetings and my head feels like scrambled eggs.

I did take a quick look at cards last night and noticed one for a short list, National Express at Cork (6.05) but i've decided to have a free day anyway. The last two days i've had a proposed lay, one won, (last night) the other, a shortie (The Tin Man) got beat, so hopefully another one will.

National Express has been dropped in trip from 8f to 6f for tonights race. You may have seen AOB on TV directly after his last race (3rd) holding a phone to his ear. That was me calling him saying "Listen Aiden, you got beat by a couple that will go on to better things, so just keep NE at a mile over somewhere like Naas". So what does he do ? Drops it back to 6f against some speedier types at Cork. A brilliant trainer maybe, but an eejit at race entries. WinkLaugh

Good luck and have a nice evening.
Report Lampus May 22, 2019 5:41 PM BST
Thanks ANDREW
Have a nice evening Happy
Report happysandwich May 22, 2019 6:07 PM BST
National Express ?

Is this a horse or a coach trip.

Good luck Andrew but I’m not betting in the race but I wish well those who are.
Report Lampus May 22, 2019 6:07 PM BST
N.G  Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 22, 2019 6:16 PM BST
Happysandwich,

I mentioned my head was like scramble egg, i couldn't even get the name of the horse correct. I meant National Guard (i think most knew as i spoke of AOB).

11/8 with most books this morning, a crazy price. Finished 4th of 5, beaten over 9L (9/4).
Report isleham May 22, 2019 6:51 PM BST
talking of AOB anyone got some thoughts on the two classics next week
backed telecastor immediately after the dante but with more thought now feel he had the run of the race so feel it is AOB's
to lose but which one is the conundrum
Report happysandwich May 22, 2019 7:29 PM BST
Andrew

Just got off the phone to Aiden he said: “Can I phone you back Happy – I’ve got Andrew in one ear telling me I’ve got me furlies in a twist and you in the other telling me you missed a good Lay tonight”.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 22, 2019 9:17 PM BST
Isleham,

I think Magna Grecia will beat Too Darned Hot in the Irish 2000, but part of that reasoning is down to the fact i'm not really a fan of the latter.

The Derby (a race i've never seen live at Epsom) is a conumdrum indeed and the fact AOB has 9 entries (currently) may suggest he doesn't know either. The enigma is Sir Dragonet, he could be a superstar, but if i had to pick one it would be Broome. Good luck with Telecaster, hope you get a run.

Happysandwich,

Maybe the 'lads' knew it was a good lay tonight. I know it's easy after the event and i don't want to aftertime (i did post it anyway) but i would have laid it with readies at 11/8 (or even 6/4) this morning if i had a functional account. Having said that, it would not surprise me one iota if National Guards' next race is over 8f and he wins. He actually ran well in 3rd against a couple of fast improving types LTO (after winning the time before) and i couldn't understand why AOB dropped him back 2f. I'm not sure John Magnier made the correct decision taking on AOB as the Coolmore trainer but time will tell Wink
Report Lucky Luciano May 22, 2019 10:35 PM BST
Andrew
Off to Sandown Park tom night, so any thoughts welcome
Couple of shorts ones of which Dee Ex Bee (class and stamina proven) must win if they fancy this as a stepping stone to Ascot. Mekong has yet to run over this distance and may prefer softer, ran just in front of Austrian School last October so gives them a line on that one and I don't fancy MM. Backed it at 1.86 on here earlier and hard to see it being any bigger than that tomorrow night.
Well done with the earlier lay, was on way home from work so missed it againPlain
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 23, 2019 7:16 AM BST
Hi Lucky,

Not a bad meeting at Sandown tonight, albeit not one i have constructive thoughts about most of the card, except for a lay in one race and an EW fancy (not strongly).

I would lay Sangrius (8.10) at 3/1 or less, it’s a decent field (all winners) and he’s giving away 3 lb on a debut run. Mind you the stable is in hot form.

My EW fancy would be History Writer (8.40). His form figures don’t look inspiring, but he’s run better than they would suggest. Decent jockey. I would want 6/1 or over to make a profit if placed though.

If you see Ed Thompson (and Brian) please pass on my best wishes to both of them.

Have a great evening and i hope you return home with more readies than you went with. Good luck Happy

As for my lay last night, it wasn’t an official one so i didn’t count it in the status. I really fancied it to lose, but was whacked when I got home (an all day design Review meeting) and didn’t want to type the reasoning, even though I mentioned the primary one. It was close enough to race time anyway. C’est la vie.
Report hologon May 23, 2019 11:31 AM BST
Andrew plenty more races to come.The important thing is not to run out of money before we run out of races, there is always another race.your judgement is spot on.
Report Lucky Luciano May 23, 2019 11:48 AM BST
Cheers, looks like your not the only one that fancies history writer now 2/1
GL today if getting involved
Report Lucky Luciano May 23, 2019 11:59 AM BST
Just seen Greenside NR
Report Billy Liddell May 23, 2019 12:55 PM BST
Still going well AIS, very hard game Laying long term. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 23, 2019 5:30 PM BST
Good evening Guys,

Lucky, Hologon and Billy, many thanks for the comments, much appreciated.

With respect to my earlier post, Sangrius has drifted to 4/1 so no hope of using that one as a lay later. As for my proposed EW to Lucky, i can't beleive History Writer is now as low as 2/1 even after the NR. It was 9/2, 5/1 in places when i posted. I liked it at those odds, but 2/1 is skinny.

I haven't been home long and didn't seen anything that jumped off the page as a lay when i had a quick look at lunchtime, but there's still time. Regular readers know i'm not a fan of AW anyway (at the least the everyday meetings) but at least Chelmsford is the better track of them. If i haven't posted by 19.00 UK time then i'll call it a free day.

Good luck if you play and have a nice evening.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 23, 2019 6:31 PM BST
Hi Guys,

A short reasoning for tonights' lay as the race is off in 27 minutes.

Chelmsford 6.55 - Almashriq

A 3 year old War Front colt trained by John Gosden.

The sire needs no introdution although the dam (Theyskens' Theory) is not so well known. 4 offspring and 1 winner (the lay) from 8 runs.

Had 2 runs to date, winner as a 2 year old at Newcastle, and 4th in a conditions race LTO, both races over 7f. Ran well enough in both although the novice event he won was 'ordinary' enough. Was 11/8f in the conditions race but ran keen and never really got into the race (beaten 5.5L).

It's not easy to rate unexposed, lightly race 2/3 year old types, but i would probably give him a mark of 78 although he would be expected to improve of course.

Has been slowly away on both runs and that will not stand him in good stead on this track (winners tend to race prominently and front runners do well).

A field of 16 and over half of them could be discounted, but there are some promising types from decent stables amongst the rest, including Muraad who i would rate a couple of lb higher than the lay. Won LTO and the runner-up has scored since.

The race is not cut and dried by an means and i wouldn't back anything in the race.

Jockey current form is not that good, although he did have a winner at Goodwood earlier.

Of course the trainer has to be feared, he has a good strike rate on the AW, but they don't all win and i doubt this one will either.

Lay Almashriq @ 7/4 (13/8-15/8 in places).

Good luck all.
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 23, 2019 6:33 PM BST
4.1 andrew
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 23, 2019 6:37 PM BST
mymumsfinethankyou,

Not on oddschecker and i don't have access to Betfair markets. It's been as low as 5/4 on the books.
Report Lampus May 23, 2019 6:39 PM BST
Thank you   ANDREW  Happy
Good Luck
Report Lampus May 23, 2019 7:02 PM BST
HappyHappy
Report Markyacard May 23, 2019 7:04 PM BST
Nice lay well done sir!
Report BESTMATE44 May 23, 2019 7:09 PM BST
Thanks Andrew.
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 23, 2019 7:11 PM BST
well done
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 23, 2019 7:12 PM BST
went a little higher as well
Report happysandwich May 23, 2019 7:30 PM BST
Lucky Luciano,

Thanks, I followed you in after you mentioned Dee Ex Bee last night and said you was going to Sandown to see it run.
Missed the 4/5 earlier but £170 @ 1.60 was the only bet I’ve had today after Andrew said if he hadn’t posted by 7.00 pm our time he would call it a void day.
Report happysandwich May 23, 2019 7:46 PM BST
Andrew,

I know you work in the aircraft industry but how did you manage to creep under my radar?

I was so engrossed with trying to get a price on Dee Ex Bee I forgot to look if you had posted.

Anyway, I’ve managed to put steam on the table today, thanks to Lucky Luciano, so I’m Happy. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 23, 2019 7:50 PM BST
Many thanks for the comments guys.

A pity about the drift, but obviously beyond my control.

The 6 lb the winner was receiving certyainly helped as did Almashriq being a little slowly away (as before). Did run on well although Dane O'Neill may have done better going to the rail.

Lucky will be happy that Dee Ex Bee won (ref earlier post). Well done.

Happysandwich,

I posted at 18.31, but i'm a stealth fighterWink. Well done with your win.

Status so far

26th Jan - Cheltenham 2.25 - Elegant Escape (no lay price) 2nd (SP 2/1). Posted on random daily lay thread. Happy
5th May - Gowran Park 3.20 - Could Be King (lay @ 11/8) 4th (SP 2/1) Happy
8th May - Chester 4.35 - Chapelli (lay @ 5/2) 12th (SP 4/1) Happy
10th May - Ripon 7.30 - Canford Bay (lay @ 15/8) Won (SP 2/1) Sad
11th May - Warwick 7.00 - Poppy Kay (lay @ 2/1) 5th (SP 5/1) Happy
14th May - Ffos Las 8.00 - Kilmoganny (lay @ 5/2) PU (SP 3/1) Happy
17th May - York 3.35 - UAE Prince (lay @ 2/1) Won (SP 15/8) Sad
20th May - Leicester 7.15 - Casement (lay @ 6/4) 3rd (SP 7/4) Happy
21st May - Sligo 7.00 - Isle Of Shadows (lay @ 5/2) 2nd (SP 6/4) Happy
22nd May - Chelmsford - Almashriq (lay @ 7/4) 2nd (SP 11/4) Happy
Report kemo sabe May 23, 2019 7:52 PM BST
and another well done
Report Lucky Luciano May 24, 2019 1:04 AM BST
Good Evening /morning Andrew, Happy and Kemo
Just got home from a very enjoyable evening with a little bit more in my pocket than I left with. Glorious sunny evening with good friends and a few drinks
Backed Dee Ex Bee again at 4/7 on track and was pleased to see Sylvester lead all the way. Only other bet was Regal Reality (aftertiming so apologies)
Didnt see the bookie Ed Thomson there otherwise would have said hello
Thanks for the comments and well done everybody
Kemo saw you comment earlier about flippa the skippa well done good call.Hope you backed it
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 24, 2019 7:01 AM BST
Good morning Guys,

7 meetings today so I should be able to find a lay of 5/2 or under from what looks a zillion runners. There’s far too much racing in my opinion, but at least we have Goodwood today, one of my favourite courses. Not an easy card today, but i do like Fifth Position in the listed race. Won well LTO and the runner up has gone in since, although Frankies’ mount (and probable favourite) also looks a promising 3 year old. 

If I do post a lay, it will probably be an evening meeting anyway, although I can access the forum from my office here (not so at Saab as most know). If not, I could always put up Calyx to win on sprinters day tomorrow. Wink

Good luck whatever you play.

Lucky,

Well done on your winning evening, sounds like you had a nice time. Sandown is a lucky course for me, i’ve been a few times and took my daughter when Golden Horn won the Eclipse a few years back. I know Ed Thompson trades there, I had a long chat with him (and Brian) when Altior won in December (even bought them coffee and biscuits) although i can’t comment if he was there last night. They are nice guys.

Kemo,

Thanks and well done with your selection yesterday.
Report Lampus May 24, 2019 10:04 AM BST
Happy
Report happysandwich May 24, 2019 4:59 PM BST
Andrew

Got my binoculars out early tonight scanning the skies for that incoming Lay bet. Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 24, 2019 7:50 PM BST
Happysandwich,

Apologies, i went for an after work drink with a friend and i haven't been home long. There's not a lot left to choose from anyway and i don't want to post a lay for the sake of it, so let's call it a free day.

8 race meetings tomorrow and no work distractions Wink
Report happysandwich May 24, 2019 8:04 PM BST
No worries Andrew, you enjoy the rest of the evening.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 25, 2019 8:29 AM BST
Hi Guys,

An earlier post than normal (although i'm an hour in front of UK) as i've got a busy day ahead of me and i may not even get to see any racing on ITV.

With 8 meetings to choose from i certainy wasn't spoilt for choice looking for a lay selection, although a couple of days ago i had almost decided in advance to post Too Darn Hot in the Irish 2000 Guineas.

A good horse without question, but i've never been overly convinced and thought the media and BHA opinion was a little exaggerated to be honest. His two year old rating of 126 (same as Frankel at the same stage) was too high in my opinion. He's not a large framed horse either and doesn't have the same scope for growth as others may have as 3 year olds.

Magna Grecia was obviously aided by the golden highway at Newmarket LTO, but he won well enough and may have done so from any draw, who knows. His overall form is good and only defeat (by a neck) was by Persian King who won the French Guineas recently.

On ratings alone he has to improve 8 lb against TDH, but could do easily being lightly raced and i don't think there will be much between them today. Of course TDH could go on to prove me wrong (and i will hold my hands up if so) but i doubt it. Good luck to those that back him.

Enough about the Irish 2000 guineas, on to todays lay and i may have taken a bigger risk selecting a horse with form figues of 1-1-1-UR-1-3-1-2 in his last 8 races.

Cartmel 3.15 - Inchcolm.

A 9 year old Presenting gelding trained by Tristan Davidson in Cumbria.

Transferred from Micky Hammond in October 2018.

The trainer may not be a familiar name to many (ex P2P champion) and he has a small stable, but to give him credit where due the horse is running better for him than MH.

Generally runs at Northern courses as you would expect and appears to like Hexham.

Ran over CD once (June 2018) but didn't jump that well although he finished runner-up (beaten 9L).

Cartmel is a tight course with the longest run-in of any in UK and the 4 fences in the back straight come quickly. He has a tendency to hang left in the latter stages on occasion so this course may not suit him.

His highest winning mark is 107 and he races off 120 today. His best form running off more than 107 was LTO where he was runner off 114, so it will be a good performance if he can achieve it, but i feel it will be beyond him.

There are a few course specialists running and this handicap, although only 6 runners, is very competitive, i wouldn't have a bet in the race.

For anyone betting at Cartmel this afternoon note that Sue Smith has a 33% strike rate at the course and has two runners today, incuding this race.

Lay Inchholm @ 15/8 (almost everywhere on Oddschecker).

Good luck all.
Report happysandwich May 25, 2019 9:17 AM BST
Thanks Andrew we can now all plan our day around the Cartmel 3.15. Laugh
Report kemo sabe May 25, 2019 9:19 AM BST
this horse for many reasons youve stated was a def lay for me so i had better get busy and do just that ,,, im always looking for the moffat plot at this course ,,,  morning royalty just might be it  so a lay and a bet for me , ive a place near whitehaven so cartmel holds special place in my memories ,,, good luck
Report Lampus May 25, 2019 9:39 AM BST
Thanks ANDREW for  the  Lay Happy

allready backed  Too  Darn   Hot  Cry
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 25, 2019 10:00 AM BST
Lampus, ignore me, what do I know. Good luck, hope it wins for you
Report kemo sabe May 25, 2019 10:03 AM BST
yr moveing markets andrew ,
Report Burkey1885 May 25, 2019 10:13 AM BST
A bet too darn hot Andrew SurprisedShocked
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 25, 2019 12:10 PM BST
Kemo,

I assume you're referring to the slight drift on Too Darn Hot, but i don't move markets, i think punters simply realised that 11/8 was Too Darn Cold.

Mart,

Does Too Darn Hot have the best speed figures ? Wink

Due to no horse racing on the German Betfair site, i can't bet anyway and if i could, would be laying him for more than the usual £50 stake on my threads.

Of course he could win on the bridle with Frankie signing autographs in the last furlong. If he does, i have to accept he's better than i thought (TDH not Frankie Wink). If you post a strong opinion on here you have to accept criticism if you get it badly wrong (and i have done in the past).

It's not a two horse race by any means, Shardu won his race in the 2000 Guineas and even the Paddy Twomey trained Decryot has a EW squeak at the current 22/1.

Too Darn Hot had an interupted preparation and was a NR is the 2000 due to injury. He was upped in trip for the Dante and beaten relatively easily. Winner aside, is the form that good ? He steps back to a mile after only 9 days to get over his 3 year old debut run. Not exactly what JG would have wanted although i appreciate there are not many opportunities to win a classic over 8f.

Betting is all about opinions and without opposing views there are no markets. I've given mine and in this case i feel the media/punters are over enthusing about Too Darn Hot and maybe underestimating Magna Grecia.

I hope it wins for you, Lampus and other backers.

Good luck all.
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