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Andrew in Sweden
23 Apr 18 13:33
Joined:
Date Joined: 10 Nov 07
| Topic/replies: 211 | Blogger: Andrew in Sweden's blog
I'm going to post a daily nap lay to a level stake until the end of the month. I'll keep the prices short enough to make it interesting, and only use this thread to monitor progress. 

18.00 Navan Washington DC

One of the stables global travellers and won this race last year after a prep race in Meydan. AOB taking the same route this year after finishing 4th there, but all wins have been on good or firm. Will be soft today and showers are forecast for this afternoon. I also feel WDC needs 6f to be at his best these days, certainly his style of running would support it. The top 3 in the betting are close on ratings, and the English runner Final Venture is not out of it, but i think Son of Rest (who is probably better than his form would suggest) will win it. Good luck all.

Lay at 2.60

23-Apr-18
09:57:50    18:00 Navan
Washington DC - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:123248570104 | Matched: 23-Apr-18 12:56:56    Lay    2.60    50.00    80.00
50.00
Matched
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Report deadbrain59 May 11, 2019 8:49 AM BST
for what its worth I would have layed your lay all day long,Tongue Out,gl thread, don't give up napsMischief
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 11, 2019 9:05 AM BST
Deadbrain,

Thank you.

In hindsight it was a poor selection and had been well backed during the day. It was the form horse, but i posted what i considered to be reasoning enough to lay it at 15/8. I got it wrong as we all do sometimes, so i move on.

If i hadn't posted last night, i may even have posted Anthony Van D@ke as a lay today (reasons posted on the Derby trial thread) but it's a risky one as he's without doubt the class horse of the field, although there are several unexposed types.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 11, 2019 1:02 PM BST
Sods law.

I was looking for an alternative lay to Anthony Van D#ke, picked up on a likely candidate in Tara Dylan in the 2.25 Cork and had most of the reasoning typed. Now it's drifted and Oddschecker is all over the place with prices between 9/4 and 4/1 for it after a general 2/1 most of the morning (and under in places). As a consequence i will not use it, although i do consider it a lay.

I may review the evening cards for a lay later, but changing tack, i do like Cape Islay in the 1.55 Lingfield at a decent price. Winner of 2 from 6, both wins on good/soft and soft. Won over 10f as a 2 year old so trip shouldn't be an issue. Well beaten LTO, but firm going may not have suited. Consistent form and has won at Epsom (similar undulations here). Could be a profitable EW bet.

Good luck all.
Report Lampus May 11, 2019 2:30 PM BST
Cool
Report deadbrain59 May 11, 2019 2:50 PM BST
2,Crazy 0 horses in that race fav fell 2nd fav won,made small profit
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 11, 2019 2:53 PM BST
Should have posted Tara Dylan, backed down to 2/1f. Joined by rival and fell 3 out.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 11, 2019 4:18 PM BST
Hi Guys,

I've decided on a lay and hopefully the current odds hold up before i post this time (ref Tara Dylan earlier).

Warwick 7.00 - Poppy Kay.

A 9 year old Kayf Tara mare trained by Olly Murphy (transfered from Philip Hobbs in February subsequent to a wind surgery operation).

A half-decent hurdler (albeit in and out form) winner of 4 races (and a bumper) including a listed race off a mark of 134, her highest rating.

Made her novice chase debut over CD (11/8f) at this meeting a year ago, but didn't look a natural (several mistakes) and she finished a well beaten 30L 5th of 6.

Her only other chase run (LTO in March) was in a two runner race albeit in name only as she was 1/16f and had an incredible 90 lb in hand on BHA ratings. Just to be sure, she carried 4 lb less than her rival. Raced a little keen, but the result was never in doubt and she won by 8L. Obviously this form is inconclusive, i could have beaten the 2nd riding a bean bag over the course.

Apart from her facile win LTO, she has only won on going with soft or heavy in the description.

Runs off a mark of 134 tonight (as her two previous races).

Warwick is a tricky course for a novice and she will need to jump better than her last visit here. Joint top weight, but gives 6 lb to the other 3.

A small field of 5, but a very open race and all with a chance of winning.

Lay Poppy Kay @ 2/1 (almost everywhere on Oddschecker).

Good luck all.
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 11, 2019 4:23 PM BST

May 11, 2019 -- 2:53PM, Andrew.in.Sweden wrote:


Should have posted Tara Dylan, backed down to 2/1f. Joined by rival and fell 3 out.


andrew tara had every chance when it fell,, imo  would have won,,GL

Report Lampus May 11, 2019 4:35 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW Happy

G/L
Report Charlton2005 May 11, 2019 7:09 PM BST
advised at 2/1 started at 5/1 finished 5th of 5. wd A Grin
Report gazza66 May 11, 2019 7:16 PM BST
Great call and thanks as always Andrew. Could have layed the place at even money as well.
Report GLASGOWCALLING May 11, 2019 7:16 PM BST
Well done Andrew, winner won going away. Happy
Report Zsa_Zsa_Gabors_Leg May 11, 2019 7:28 PM BST
Lampus along shortly, after he has had a cold shower
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 11, 2019 7:36 PM BST
Thanks for the comments guys.

I was surprised at the drift (and backing to 13/8 for the eventual fav). I couldn't watch it of course (or lay it) but listened to the WH commentary. Poppy Kays jumping left a lot to be desired and was PU when well beaten. Maybe we will see her back over hurdles soon.

Status so far

26th Jan - Cheltenham 2.25 - Elegant Escape (no price for the lay) 2nd (SP 2/1). Posted on the random daily lay thread.
5th May - Gowran Park 3.20 - Could Be King (lay @ 11/8) 4th (SP 2/1)
8th May - Chester 4.35 - Chapelli (lay @ 5/2) 12th (SP 4/1)
10th May - Ripon 7.30 - Canford Bay (lay @ 15/8) Won (SP 2/1)
11th May - Warwick 7.00 - Poppy Kay (lay @ 2/1) 5th (SP 5/1)

Another one tomorrow.
Report Lampus May 11, 2019 8:21 PM BST
Happy
Report Lucky Luciano May 11, 2019 10:15 PM BST
Hey Andrew,
Well done so far with your unofficial lays. Unfortunately I've missed them as only been checking in now and again. The Mrs has broken her arm falling over at work and therefore my workload has gone up tenfold !!
I now realise what she does for us or so that is what she keeps telling meWink Not had great luck on the horses lately but had a good bet on Man City at evens some while back so while Liverpool have kept me waiting hopefully my Betfair account will be back in a healthy state from tomorrow and ready to join in again
Best of Luck
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 12, 2019 9:45 AM BST
Hi Lucky,

Thank you.

I was disappointed with my Friday selection, but as previously stated, in hindsight it was a poor choice. I really want to better my 14 straight successes record if only for personal satisfaction, but it's not easy (could have been 18 but for a head bob). C'est la vie, one down, 14 more to go. Wink

Some decent cards today and i wanted to have a few bob on Persian King in the French 2000 guineas (would need to call my brother in UK to get a bet on) but reading media reports the going could be very soft, even heavy. This may not prevent him from winning, he's won on good to soft twice, Kingman (sire) won on soft and Pretty Please (dam) won on very soft, so there is reasoning to suggest it may not be an issue although i would feel more confident if the going was good.

I don't think it's a top quality field (PK aside) and i can't see the AOB runners winning even though the stable is in irresistable form. It's difficult to know who the danger is.

I like the horse and tipped him up on the random lay thread when he won at Newmarket. I even had a small ante-post bet for our 2000 guineas (long before Ten Sovereigns was a confirmed runner).   

Good luck with the Man City bet, it's looking good for them (and you). It wouldn't be a mega surprise if Wolves sneaked a point at Liverpool, they're not such a bad team. I don't bet on football so much, but i did have a fun bet on my own team Bristol City to get promoted to the premiership. If we had beaten Derby at home a couple of games back, we would be in the play offs instead of them.

Sorry to hear about your wifes' injury, i can sympathise having broken a wrist 6 years ago resulting in an operation (plate and 5 screws) although i don't have any problems with it now and the scar is barely visible.

Good luck.
Report Lucky Luciano May 12, 2019 11:07 AM BST
Cheers Andrew,
I backed Bristol City when Wigan nicked a equaliser a few games back, small margins !! was a season ticket holder down the valley so backed them to win play offs on the indexes, probably more heart than head but hey ho. Get past Doncaster and I have a bet to nothing.
Good luck with Persian King if playing but 8/11 looks short for a horse not run on ground maybe this soft before
Report happysandwich May 12, 2019 1:59 PM BST
Lucky Luciano,

I too, like you, am clawing my way back after a couple of losers.

This is a true story.

At 3.00pm yesterday (Saturday) I put £606.84 @ 1.17 on a football match.

I looked to see the score after 30 minutes and there was no goals.
Looked again well into the second half and still no score, now I’m beginning to get worried in case it ends in a draw.

Then I saw this in the top left hand corner :-

Brighton v Man City
Sun 12 May, 15:00

Now I’ve got to do it all over again but the good thing is I've got you on my side this time. Laugh

Good luck
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 12, 2019 2:45 PM BST
Hi Guys,

No lay post today, simply because i didn't see one worth putting up at under 5/2.

Lucky,

Well done with Charlton Athletic, you're halfway to a free bet now.

I have £150 on Persian King (courtesy of my brother) as i feel the ground will not be a significant issue based on my reasons above. I would hate it if he bolted up and i didn't have a cent on. Of course it's not a professional approach and that's why i will never be another Alan Potts. If it had been good or good/firm i would have bet more, i like the horse.

Happysandwich,

Good luck with Man City, hopefully they get an early goal to settle nerves (including your own).
Report Lampus May 12, 2019 2:50 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW Happy
G/L
Report tanglefoot May 12, 2019 2:50 PM BST
Andrew, several top punters say, never to back on a change of going, but Persian King ,looks a good one,gl
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 12, 2019 2:54 PM BST
Lampus and Tangle,

Thank you.

It's my only bet today, in fact, i haven't had many all year, primarily due to Betfair account issues.
Report Lampus May 12, 2019 3:00 PM BST
Easy  HappyHappy
Report tanglefoot May 12, 2019 3:01 PM BST
Wd, going didn’t look to bad.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 12, 2019 3:06 PM BST
Never in doubt Wink

Seriously, i didn't see the race (no racing channels) but happy the best horse won.
Report happysandwich May 12, 2019 4:21 PM BST
^^^^
but happy the best horse won.

I know it did – what do you want me to say? Laugh
Report Lucky Luciano May 12, 2019 4:53 PM BST
Well done guys with bets today, I'm pleased but amazed that a team can get 97 points lose one game and not win the leagueMischiefSurprised 
Didnt see PK win but good call yet again.
Report GLASGOWCALLING May 12, 2019 4:58 PM BST
Agree Lucky, it seems Liverpool picked the wrong Season to peak, the European Cup would be a nice consolation though. g/l. Happy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 12, 2019 7:48 PM BST
As Lucky Luciano stated above, for Liverpool to get 97 points, only lose a single game in 38, yet not win the Premiership is incredible, but it also emphasises how good a team the champions Manchester City are.

Liverpool almost deserve to be given the European Champions league after the season they've had, but Spurs will not be a roll-over and premiership placings will not count for anything on the day.

Happysandwich, well done with your bet although i imagine your heartbeat was racing after 27 minutes, if only briefly. Wink

Going back to Persian King in the French 2000 guineas, i've watched the video replay several times now, he raced prominently from the start and was never that far off the leaders. Took a while to get to the front between the 400 and 300 metres marks, but then lengthened his stride and once he did the result wasn't really in doubt from that point, running out a comfortable winner (albeit by only a length).

The race times throughout the day would suggest it wasn't really heavy going as the RP states (certainly soft) in fact PK was only 1.58 seconds outside standard. 

He's going to meet a better field in the Prix Du Jockey Club (French Derby) but 9/4 currently on offer with Paddy Power looks a good price to me.
Report ProSniper May 12, 2019 8:29 PM BST
It would only be incredible if the winning pts tally was unheard of. The fact that City accumulated 2 more pts only the previous season.. meant it was entirely plausible to expect they'd be close to that mark again. The "1 loss" for Pool may sound great(being 3 less than City), but they've yet again had too many draws(FIVE more than City) That's what did for them under Rodgers best season. And also under Benitez(where I believe they drew a double figure amount..)
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 12, 2019 8:43 PM BST
Prosniper,

It's incredible due to the fact 97 points is more than any other premiership winning team except for Manchester City since it's inception in 1992/1993.

In only 5 years has a premiership winning team attained more than 90 points and it's been won by as few as 75.

I'm not a Liverpool or Manchester City supporter Wink.
Report ProSniper May 12, 2019 9:02 PM BST
But we live in the present. And we all know City have raised the bar. As good a season as they had, Pool couldn't quite reach it.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 14, 2019 6:31 PM BST
Hi Guys,

Another day, another lay.

I didn't have time to look at the afternoon cards today (work committments) but glanced through the evening cards earlier and noticed one that i thought could be taken on.

Ffos Las 8.00 - Kilmoganny

A 7 year old Stowaway gelding trained by Katy Price (not the KP Sun readers may know).

A 13 race maiden over hurdles and chases.

Generally runs over much longer trips, 21.5f the last two races and 26f the two prior to those. Tonights race distance is 16f.

Regressed over hurdles going from a mark of 90 to 74 in 5 races.

Chase mark has fluctuated between 69 and 74, runs off 72 tonight, a lb less than his last race.

Ran at Ffos Las in January (19.5f hurdles) but finished a well beaten 6th of 15 and 8 of them didn't finish the race.

A wind operation in February has brought a little improvement in his last two races, both at Huntingdon, 3rd of 7 finishers off a mark of 61, and 3rd of 4 finishers off 73 (beaten l8L) both over 26f. Was 13/8f in the latter race.

Ffos Las is more galloping in nature so he needs to replicate his recent Huntingdon form on a different type of track.

Has been making the running in recent races and i suspect punters are looking at recent form and thinking he will be better over a much shorter trip, but i see it a little differently, he's meeting speedier types tonight and i feel he will be picked up before the last fence. Of course it could have been laid out for tonights' race and bolt up, but i doubt it, and i'm content with my selection. 

Trainer form is uninspiring.

There are 8 runners in a very open race (barring the rank outsider).

Lay Kilmoganny @ 5/2 (generally on Oddschecker, 9/4 in places)

Good luck all.
Report sofiakenny May 14, 2019 6:43 PM BST
Her last runner won and previous runner was placed.hth.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 14, 2019 6:48 PM BST
sofiakenny,

Sods law, i should have stated 'trainer form is uninspiring up to tonight' Wink
Report happysandwich May 14, 2019 7:11 PM BST
Thank's Andrew,

Good luck tonight to all who follow us in.
Report happysandwich May 14, 2019 8:08 PM BST
Thank’s again Andrew – you’re back on track. Cool
Report gazza66 May 14, 2019 8:09 PM BST
Thanks as always Andrew. Never in doubt, I think it was last as they turned into the straight. Once again not even placed. I hope you have a good evening.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 14, 2019 8:27 PM BST
Thanks for the comments guys, i was surprised it didn't lead as it had done recently.

Backed from 5/1 to 9/4 during the day, drifted to 3/1. Never in the race.

Status so far

26th Jan - Cheltenham 2.25 - Elegant Escape (no price for the lay) 2nd (SP 2/1). Posted on the random daily lay thread.
5th May - Gowran Park 3.20 - Could Be King (lay @ 11/8) 4th (SP 2/1)
8th May - Chester 4.35 - Chapelli (lay @ 5/2) 12th (SP 4/1)
10th May - Ripon 7.30 - Canford Bay (lay @ 15/8) Won (SP 2/1)
11th May - Warwick 7.00 - Poppy Kay (lay @ 2/1) 5th (SP 5/1)
14th May - Ffos Las 8.00 - Kilmoganny (lay @ 5/2) PU (SP 3/1)
Report Lampus May 14, 2019 8:31 PM BST
Well  done ANDREW Happy

Missed it myself  watching the cricket  Cry
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 15, 2019 5:18 AM BST
Thanks Lampus.

Cricket instead of my lay thread ShockedWink

I have another for this afternoon if i get time to post at lunchtime.
Report themightymac May 15, 2019 9:24 PM BST
Andrew, remember the horse that we were following at Bath, Jaganory?

It sprung in today at 33/1 Laugh
Report Billy Liddell May 15, 2019 9:52 PM BST
Brilliant thread Andrew, I find Laying very hard..

My brother lived in Sweden, talked about a pint being about ten quid a pint years ago. How much is it now..
Report FOYLESWAR May 15, 2019 10:01 PM BST
yes i am shyte at laying too , if i layed yours andrew they would start winning and as i know a lot follow you so wont burden yours ! good luck all !
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 16, 2019 8:12 AM BST
Themightymac,

I certainly do remember him, a standing dish at Bath (run there 29 times). He doesn’t win so often but at 33/1 he doesn’t need to. I was busy yesterday (work) and didn’t get chance to look at the cards. I doubt I would have backed him anyway (would need to phone my brother in UK) but if my Svenska account was open, or my German one had UK racing markets, who knows I may have had a small fun bet. C’est la vie. Did you back him ? 

Billy,

Thank you. It depends where you drink and subject to exchange rates anyway (very favourable for Brits at the moment). We don’t have pints as such, but a local beer (less than a pint) in my local sports bar is around £7.50. Hotels are more expensive as you would expect (specially shorts).

Foyleswar,

I doubt you’re that bad, you may be simply remembering the winners that cost you. Laying isn’t easy, you need a decent % rate of success as in most cases you’re betting odds on, but my threads have produced a decent profit so far so hopefully the run continues. The current ones are ‘unofficial’ (as i can’t lay them on here to win a level £50 pound per lay/day at the moment that is always part of the conditions) although I post the status. When I get my new Svenska account sorted out I will create a new thread with exactly the same format as before. 

All,

No lay this afternoon (I may look at this evenings cards when I get home) but one horse I would not be backing at the odds is Too Darned Hot in the Dante. I appreciate he’s unbeaten in 4 and finished on a mark of 126, but oddly enough I was never impressed with him and there’s a few unexposed types in the field. I feel it’s a race to watch than bet. I like Nayef Road, an honest sort who i’ve backed several times, but this race may be too much of a step up in class.

Good luck
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 16, 2019 7:21 PM BST
Hi Guys,

I should have posted Too Darned Hot (ref above).

No lay post this evening, there's not much left anyway. I did consider Copal in the 8.05 Newmarket, first time up in a handicap and i feel his mark is a little high. It's 11/4 now anyway, so i'll give it a miss.

Good luck.
Report Lampus May 16, 2019 7:25 PM BST
Ok  dokey   ANDREWHappy
Report happysandwich May 16, 2019 9:03 PM BST
Andrew

Shame about Copal (7/2 6th beaten 4.5 l) but if you had tipped it up I would have Layed it no matter what the price.

It was 2/7 to lose the race and guess what. Laugh
Report Burkey1885 May 16, 2019 9:23 PM BST
It’s just like paying the old betting tax Andrew a miner blip your took good too lose long term chin up  u be back on track soon enough amigo Wink
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 16, 2019 9:37 PM BST
Mart,

Back on track ? The horse that i thought about posting (but didn't) finished 6th of 8.
Report happysandwich May 16, 2019 9:55 PM BST
Andrew

I know this has been asked before but would it not be beneficial to increase the 5/2 to 3/1?

It would slightly improve the strike rate but better still it would give you more scope for a selection.

I mention this because on your last thread you always proofed you got 5/2 or less but on a couple of occasions I waited too long and layed as big as 9/2.

Didn’t make any difference to me I always won the same amount (provided they lost).

I know you will say leave it at 5/2 but maybe Lampus, Lucky Luciano, Flash (Ed) Bookie, TheAnorak, Mart and a few of your other regular followers can say yes or no or give an opinion.

On a personal basis, I just type the amount I want to win in the box and kiss my money goodbye and it keeps coming back.

Works for me.Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 17, 2019 5:23 AM BST
Good morning Happysandwich,

Thank you for your 2 posts of confidence Happy

When i started the threads i thought about the format quite a bit, i initally considered a £40 stake for example but evenutally decided on the present stake. I also wanted it to be a challenge and a 3/1 odds limit seems high and of course increases the liabilty in the event of a winner. Some of the lays drift of course (some go the other way) but i don't have any control over that and i like to post well in advance of the race if i can.

I'm happy to listen to other opinions.

Good luck today.
Report deadbrain59 May 17, 2019 6:30 AM BST
r moore last 14 days 9/4 below +6 off 14 rides LAY,just a thought
Report hologon May 17, 2019 9:21 AM BST
Andrew keep up the good work. I can understand your initial thoughts of £40 lay  max liabilty £100.However if you leave your lay at 5/2 and individuals wish to  do something  different that is the beauty of the free market.
My opinion you have been extremely successful and I hope you will continue to be, if it ain't broke don't fix it.
Report happysandwich May 17, 2019 10:10 AM BST
Deadbrain59,

^^^
That’s an interesting thought.

Of Ryan Moore’s 7 rides at York today only Laafy in the 5.05 is likely to be 5/2 or less.

Of his last 42 rides, 6 of them have been odds-on and only 2 won at 2/9 and 8/11.

Would any jockeys odds-on stats be that good for the Layers?

Stats are only what’s gone before they have no bearing on the future unless you can come up with feasible reasoning.

https://www.racingpost.com/profile/jockey/79202/ryan-moore/form

Hologon,

Good input.

I only mentioned 3/1 to help those poor souls desperate for a bet (not me). Laugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 17, 2019 1:57 PM BST
Hi Guys,

After a quick review of the cards during lunch break i noticed one that i thought could be taken on, more so considering the short odds.

Managed to find some ‘Andrew’ time to type the posting this afternoon.

York 3.35 - UAE Prince

A 7 year old Sea The Stars gelding trained by Roger Varian at Newmarket.

Lightly raced for his age, only 11 races and winner of two, but not won since April 2017, a class 3 handicap off a mark of 93 at Ripon.

Ran 5th in the Cambridgeshire (behind Wissahickon) last year.

Has raced at York on 3 occasions finishing 4th, 12th and 4th in sequential order.

Goes well fresh, but this is a more open handicap than it may initially appear and not many could be discounted.

Only offspring from the mare and she was a 3 race maiden.

Reasonably consistent, although due to his style of racing (off the pace and needing cover) tends to find trouble in running on occasions.

Runs off 99 today (6 lb higher than last winning mark) and I feel he needs to come down in the weights before winning again. Maybe another furlong or two wouldn’t go amiss either.

I think he’ll be thereabouts at the finish, but out of the first couple home and I can see a few of the bottom weights in contention. I like Grandee EW but I wouldn’t bet in the race.

Probably the form horse of the race (albeit patchy) an in-form stable and it’s favourite so there are risks attached, but i’m content with my selection

Lay UAE Prince @ 2/1 (generally on Oddschecker at time of posting - some 9/4 in places)

Good luck all.

Hologon,

Many thanks, much appreciated Happy
Report Lampus May 17, 2019 2:00 PM BST
Thank you ANDREW  Happy

Good All
Report Zsa_Zsa_Gabors_Leg May 17, 2019 2:32 PM BST
WD with yesterdays 1-3 nap, gone for an outsider today(4-5).

Is it possible for you to get promoted with odds on shots???


I THINK NOT
Report Lucky Luciano May 17, 2019 2:58 PM BST

May 16, 2019 -- 9:55PM, happysandwich wrote:


AndrewI know this has been asked before but would it not be beneficial to increase the 5/2 to 3/1?It would slightly improve the strike rate but better still it would give you more scope for a selection.I mention this because on your last thread you always proofed you got 5/2 or less but on a couple of occasions I waited too long and layed as big as 9/2.Didn’t make any difference to me I always won the same amount (provided they lost).I know you will say leave it at 5/2 but maybe Lampus, Lucky Luciano, Flash (Ed) Bookie, TheAnorak, Mart and a few of your other regular followers can say yes or no or give an opinion.On a personal basis, I just type the amount I want to win in the box and kiss my money goodbye and it keeps coming back.Works for me.


my view would be the same as hologon, that Andrew leaves the criteria the same ie maximum 5/2 then if it drifts its your personal choice if getting involved. On the odd occasion ive actually fancied the laybet before it has been put up then i wouldnt get involved rather than laying an horse I originally fancied. I have not chased the price out in the past, once it gone past 3.80ish instead ive waited and hope it comes back in or if not have posted an in running lay at 3.5 or sometimes less somewhere between 2.5 and 3. if as some of the lays that they look beaten in the early part of the race i wont get matched but often i have been matched at shorter than 3.5 and if its has won then has cost me less. did try opposing the laybet in match bets but that didnt work out to be profitable

Report mymumsfinethankyou May 17, 2019 3:38 PM BST
looks beat already..pulling very hard
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 17, 2019 3:38 PM BST
after 1 furlong
Report sofiakenny May 17, 2019 3:46 PM BST
CrySad
Report Lucky Luciano May 17, 2019 3:59 PM BST
not to be today but looked good for layers early doors. as always move on
Report happysandwich May 17, 2019 4:24 PM BST
Unlucky Andrew.

Watched it on ITV.

I took 3.1 and it drifted out to over 5’s in running but I didn’t try to cash out because I thought the TV picture must be way behind.

How wrong I was. Cry

Did this happen to anyone else?
Report ProSniper May 17, 2019 4:34 PM BST
R U people layers or traders?? in-running odds shouldn't concern you if you're not trying to mafi your way to hall green. Some were obviously of the view the beast wouldn't get home after witnessing the early stages.. but as we all should know by now.."after 1 furlong" isn't so important. The final furlong is all that matters.
Report mymumsfinethankyou May 17, 2019 4:42 PM BST
another few yards and its beat,, idled
Report ProSniper May 17, 2019 5:03 PM BST
New lay markets called for> 1) Pay up when hoss pulls. 2) Pay up when hoss gets scrubbed along as if it's just woke from coma. 3) Pay up When hoss idles but still finishes in front..
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 17, 2019 5:10 PM BST
Sorry Guys, i got it wrong, albeit by a rapidly diminishing neck and dead heat, but with laying a winner it just as well be 10L. As stated i felt he would be thereabouts at the finish, but i thought one or two of the bottom weights would beat him (one nearly did).

Maybe too risky a lay, but i was OK with it. I wish i had gone out for lunch now [(:laugh:]) but no excuses, just not my day.

OK, i move on and tomorrow is another day, hopefully i do better. If it was an the old thread, at least i would be in profit from the 7 selections so far.

Status so far

26th Jan - Cheltenham 2.25 - Elegant Escape (no price for the lay) 2nd (SP 2/1). Posted on the random daily lay thread. Happy
5th May - Gowran Park 3.20 - Could Be King (lay @ 11/8) 4th (SP 2/1) Happy
8th May - Chester 4.35 - Chapelli (lay @ 5/2) 12th (SP 4/1) Happy
10th May - Ripon 7.30 - Canford Bay (lay @ 15/8) Won (SP 2/1) Sad
11th May - Warwick 7.00 - Poppy Kay (lay @ 2/1) 5th (SP 5/1) Happy
14th May - Ffos Las 8.00 - Kilmoganny (lay @ 5/2) PU (SP 3/1) Happy
17th May - York 3.35 - UAE Prince (lay @ 2/1) Won (SP 15/8) Sad

Zsa Zsa Gabors Leg

Is it possible for you to get promoted with odds on shots ???

I THINK NOT

Of course it is, it depends on how many win Wink
Report deadbrain59 May 17, 2019 7:48 PM BST
I would have layed your selection, all day long but im busy with laying r moore9/4 under.thats how it goes gl
Report Trusty May 18, 2019 7:53 AM BST
Time for something different. How about laying Netherlands @ 1.8 or better to win Eurovision. Mediocre song, drawn in 12 position of 26 runner field; might win because we all know Eurovision jury voting is all political bullshit and nothing to do with the song but at the price, if it wins good luck to them but at the price I'll take my chance.
Report deadbrain59 May 18, 2019 8:09 AM BST
abbas,waterloo was 4/5,they romped itCool
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 18, 2019 10:29 AM BST
Hi Guys,

I looked through the days cards earlier and although i didn't see a stand out lay there were a couple that looked interesting. One of them was Jens Boy at Bangor, but it's drifted to 11/4. I may post this one if it comes back in the betting. The other one runs this evening.

A good card at Auteuil this afternoon (and tomorrow). I think the local favourite will win the big one even though WPM runs 5 including the well regarded 2nd favourite.

I'm interested in how Jash runs at Newmarket and if he advertises Ten Sovereigns Middle Park form. Well ahead on ratings and if this was 6f i would certainly back him.

Trusty,

I didn't even know it was Eurovision Saturday so i listened to the Netherlands and Swedish entries on YouTube out of curiosity. To be honest i didn't think either was that good, and at 1.8 the rest must be quite poor. Political, cultural and neighbour biases also affect the voting so any bet has to be for fun only.

Sweden generally do well in the contest but my lucky pin would be with Azerbaijan (28 with Betfred) who will get a lot of neighbourly love votes. Good luck.

Deadbrain,

Good memory (1974) i'm surprised there was betting on it in those days.
Report leif May 18, 2019 11:59 AM BST
What about the Godolphin horse in the 8.35 Don?

10/11 poke currently.

Beaten 4 out of 6 when Fav. Won a H'cap at Redcar last time and dropped a furlong today having won over a mile last time. Ran twice over 10F before that. Up 6lb for 2 length win. Not sure it would be that price if it was trained lower down the ladder.

Re: Eurovision

That bird with the 8 ft pole up her jacksie should win it just for the sheer bravery of it. Hope she doesn't hit the deck mid song ;))
Report happysandwich May 18, 2019 1:57 PM BST
Andrew

As soon as I saw the colours of Jens Boy and it’s woeful form I could see £ signs when I closed my eyes. I’m laying it.

A mate of mine had a share in a leg of a horse with that Middleham Park racing syndicate (birthday present from his partners Mum). It was embarrassing to go to see it run. They eventually changed it for him for Madame Vitesse and all that does is eat the top quality food he pays for (it doesn't even leave him a tip). Laugh

Strangely it runs tomorrow Ripon 3.10 Madame Vitesse but too big a price for a lay bet.

Neither of us will be going from London to Ripon any time soon.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 18, 2019 5:02 PM BST
Happysandwich,

Well done with the lay, it would probably have been my selection (ref my earlier post) if i had posted when it was 9/4 this morning. Lightly raced, but the only 2 lines of form worth looking at were not that good anyway. His 2nd position was in a 4 runner bumper, one of which was 16/1.

His 4th of 11 LTO (beaten 23L) may have looked good on paper initially, but the 7th to 11th places were 50/1 x 2, 100/1, 150/1 and 200/1. First run in a handicap today and his mark looked high enough. Added to that Bangor is a fairly sharp track, a lot different to Newbury and Chepstow. It was a poor race, but he's also poor and 9/4 was surely factoring in connections.

Leif,

Good luck with your lay selection.
Report Trusty May 20, 2019 10:03 AM BST
Probably won't bother with Eurovision anymore! All very strange as Netherlands lost the Jury vote and lost the Public vote but was the net winner! Someone was placing bets of 80K several times around evens in running and having touched 2/1 before the public vote was announced, was back to evens as the first public vote was announced and was 1.4 shortly after that.

Clearly some significant inside traders but as normal nothing will be investigated.

Seems to me that Eurovision should be decided by public vote only, what do they need a professional jury vote for; who gave only 40 odd points to Norway when the public gave them nearly 300.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 11:51 AM BST
Agreed Trusty and i've often wondered if the whole thing was **** for benefit of the music industry. The result is often 'known' beforehand (or appears to be) and favourites generally do well. 1.8 prior to the off tells it's own story.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 11:51 AM BST
****
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 11:52 AM BST
the word in **** rhymes with bigged
Report happysandwich May 20, 2019 3:36 PM BST
Because Trusty happened to mention Netherlands at 1.8 for the Eurovision I watched it on the exchange. It was 4/5 all the time except for a blip when it went 15/8 but soon back to 4/5.

At one point the 12 points were going to anywhere except the Netherlands and still it stayed at 4/5, that’s what struck me as strange.

The moral of the story is to find somebody high up in the music industry next year.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 6:16 PM BST
Hi Guys,

I missed out posting two lays over the weekend simply because of drifts in the betting (significantly yesterday) but there shouldn't be any such issues this evening (says me typing quickly) as the intended selection is short enough.

I actually considered the so called 'good thing' at Windsor, The Tin Man and if i hadn't lost on Friday may even have posted this one. A wonderful sprinter it has to be said, and has won this race twice before, including last year, but he's got a Group 1 penalty of 7 lb tonight and the field is not that bad. He's been very well supported, but might just get beat.

On to the real lay, but the reasoning will be short as i'm reviewing documents (working at home).

Leicester 7.15 - Casement

A 5 year old Casamento gelding trained by Mick Appleby in Oakham, not that far away from the course. I should have asked Barton Banks' advice (he's connected to the stable as an owner)

Winner of 2 from 14, both over 8f, a maiden (as a 3 year old, albeit at odds of 1/4) and a handicap in April.

Highest winning mark is 72, runs off 78 tonight.

Has raced 4 times over 10f (distance tonight) but only one of significance and that was runner-up in a 4 horse race.

Trainer and jockey out of form recently.

First 3 in the betting are only separated by 3 lb, but the outsider is not out of it.

An open race, one that i fancy Megan to win on Meagher's Flag. If he could reproduced anything like his his early 2 year old form behind a couple of AOB's (including Saxon Warrior no less) he would win this, but even recent form gives him a decent chance.

Lay Casement @ 6/4.

Good luck all.
Report Lampus May 20, 2019 6:26 PM BST
Good Evening ANDREW
Good Luck  Happy
Report Lampus May 20, 2019 6:38 PM BST
TTMHappy
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 6:38 PM BST
The Tin Man 3rd @ 11/10 Happy
Report leif May 20, 2019 6:52 PM BST
It was posted on the front of the RP that the trainer said the horse 'would come on for the run'. That was enough to put me off but evidently not enough caveat to stop it shortening it up to 11/10.
Report england_v_south_afri May 20, 2019 6:54 PM BST
GL Andrew in the 7.15. Had a small lay as well.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 7:01 PM BST
Leif,

It has a good record fresh and clearly the form horse but 11/10 was skinny with the penalty.

england_v_south_afri,

Good luck. I can't lay it (you probably know the score) but i would have done with an open account. I think Megan will make the running here for a stamina test (and win).
Report happysandwich May 20, 2019 7:05 PM BST
Thanks for putting the effort in Andrew.

Considering we are on the short price fav I can see this one being a real ‘nailbiter’ but hopefully in our favour.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 7:09 PM BST
Happysandwich.

Thank you. Of course i wish i had posted TTM, but i'm Ok with this one as well. Good luck to all that lay it.
Report leif May 20, 2019 7:16 PM BST
They're hitting up the Nicholl's horse.

gl with the lay
Report Lampus May 20, 2019 7:18 PM BST
THANK YOU ANDREW  HappyHappy
Report Insideshrewdie May 20, 2019 7:18 PM BST
WD Andrew superb...great ride Hayley Turner ;-)
Report england_v_south_afri May 20, 2019 7:18 PM BST
VWD Cool

I love Hayley Turner Laugh
Report leif May 20, 2019 7:21 PM BST
Back to the drawing board for Appleby. The step up in trip thingo backfired.
Report happysandwich May 20, 2019 7:22 PM BST
Nail biter?

What am I talking about it was never in doubt.

Thanks Andrew.
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 7:23 PM BST
Thanks for the comments guys.

Good result for layers with the 7/4 fav beaten over 10L, but i was surprised Megan didn't lead. I guess we will see it at Wincanton soon.
Report Lucky Luciano May 20, 2019 7:41 PM BST
2019-05-20
19:17    165163637984    2019-05-20
17:48    GB Leic 20th May / 19:15 1m2f Hcap / Casement
Lay         2.64    50.00    Won         50.00

Andrew,
Had a look this afternoon at the evening cards and layed this before you posted because of basically a few of the same reasons that you wrote.
Didnt see your post till a few minutes ago and would have gone in again if i had but well done and your modus operandi must be rubbing off on me
Report stewarty b May 20, 2019 7:54 PM BST
I guess we will see it at Wincanton soon. LaughLaugh
Report Andrew.in.Sweden May 20, 2019 9:00 PM BST
Lucky,

Well done with the lay (and cash). We obviously both thought stamina would be an issue and so it was. Added to that he had to win off a highest ever mark and MA out of form was a bonus.

Stewart,

It was gelded in September 2018 and transferred to PN a month later. Well backed tonight, ran poorly, so it wouldn't surprise me if it's next race was over a few hurdles, even though he's not bred for it.

Status so far

26th Jan - Cheltenham 2.25 - Elegant Escape (no price for the lay) 2nd (SP 2/1). Posted on the random daily lay thread. Happy
5th May - Gowran Park 3.20 - Could Be King (lay @ 11/8) 4th (SP 2/1) Happy
8th May - Chester 4.35 - Chapelli (lay @ 5/2) 12th (SP 4/1) Happy
10th May - Ripon 7.30 - Canford Bay (lay @ 15/8) Won (SP 2/1) Sad
11th May - Warwick 7.00 - Poppy Kay (lay @ 2/1) 5th (SP 5/1) Happy
14th May - Ffos Las 8.00 - Kilmoganny (lay @ 5/2) PU (SP 3/1) Happy
17th May - York 3.35 - UAE Prince (lay @ 2/1) Won (SP 15/8) Sad
20th May - Leicester 7.15 Casement (lay @ 6/4) 3rd (SP 7/4) Happy
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