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ItsMeSwaddle
23 Apr 18 12:44
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Date Joined: 19 Oct 15
| Topic/replies: 8,856 | Blogger: ItsMeSwaddle's blog
Good idea.

Do fancy this one though, had a bit of 2.66 and fancy it to go off 6/5.

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By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 23 Apr 18 13:07
IMS, probably not the 'safest' lay i could have chosen, it has a touch of class after all, but i'm happy to lay it based on the soft going and 5f.

Good luck.
By:
Tiger Tiger
When: 23 Apr 18 13:21
Beware of Navan weather, just one small shower forecast around 3 pm, drying ground otherwise. My worry would be that it not soft enough for some of his opponents so wouldn't lay WDC myself. Good luck though.
By:
Tiger Tiger
When: 23 Apr 18 17:02
Nice call Andrew.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 23 Apr 18 17:12
Andrew. Cool

Every time I see Washington DC now I can't help but think of Shafter's acronym!
By:
tanglefoot
When: 23 Apr 18 18:31
WD,Andrew
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 23 Apr 18 18:33
Thanks TT and Kenbo.

Washington DC travelled well enough, but never really looked like winning, and as stated in my initial post appears to be better at 6f and needs good/firm ground, so maybe the July cup that AOB 'often' refers to is a possible Wink

Son Of Rest lost it at the start and was never in it, but the winner did it well.

Washington DC 3rd @ 6/4

Daily profit £50

Another lay tomorrow
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 23 Apr 18 18:34
Thanks Tanglefoot
By:
tanglefoot
When: 23 Apr 18 18:41
Andrew,very interested in your thread,laying to fix stake of around £50 and if u can make an average of £400 to £500 profit per month.
By:
GHOSTOFALEXBIRD
When: 23 Apr 18 18:44
Nice one Andrew

I always like reading your threads among all the shyte
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 23 Apr 18 18:56
Tangle, I stated a fixed stake (for the purposes of this thread) simply as those posters doing a similar thing often up the ante if they get on a losing run, and I will not do that. My initial thinking was to try it to the end of the month, only 8 days, so i will need a high percentage of 'winners' to make a profit. If it goes well, i may try it over a complete month.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 23 Apr 18 18:56
Thanks Ghost
By:
flukes
When: 23 Apr 18 18:58
Great call Andrew
By:
GHOSTOFALEXBIRD
When: 23 Apr 18 19:00
Andrew
Great name btw

Your a thinking mans punter and I will shocked if this does not show a profit

Go for it

I think you have the respect of the forum and the loons may stay off here

Good luck
By:
kavvie
When: 23 Apr 18 19:22
agree with above.nice to see a well thought out poster from a respected contributor.but beware...  when the first lay wins the cavalry will be on top of you sadly
By:
StillLearning
When: 23 Apr 18 19:25
Well done Andrew, I'm willing to learn following this thread. Missed the one today, though Plain
By:
GHOSTOFALEXBIRD
When: 23 Apr 18 19:29
Dunno kavvie

Andrew seems to have picked up that Swedish calmness and if Custer gengis Khan and the light brigade do come he will rise above them
Cool
By:
Irish are lucky
When: 23 Apr 18 19:36
i believe in you andrew mate

#guaranteedprofit
By:
kevdartsking
When: 23 Apr 18 20:53
Good luck Andrew will follow with interest good write up also I'm sure you will do well
By:
casemoney
When: 23 Apr 18 22:08
G luck with your Quest Andrew appears to be a Rare sensible thread .
By:
Willie Shafter.
When: 23 Apr 18 22:44
I think you have the respect of the forum and the loons may stay off here

no..im ere.
By:
gutfeeling
When: 23 Apr 18 22:54
Good work Andrew, Tomorrows Elk & beans paid for Cool
By:
GHOSTOFALEXBIRD
When: 24 Apr 18 04:45
Willie your not a loon your the umpireCool
By:
Slicer
When: 24 Apr 18 07:33
Well done and good luck. It is always brave to take on a short priced fave, but if you have good reason to do so, which you have clearly explained, then there is a great chance of profits. Everyone goes on about 30% of faves winning year after year. But that means that 70% lose year after year. The secret is in finding the right ones to lay. Also for any method to be sustainably profitable, it must be to level steaks, because if one goes chasing loses, the gravy gets badly spilled! I will monitor with interest.Good luck.
By:
deadbrain59
When: 24 Apr 18 08:11
7 favs yesterday, none handioaps,1.5 below in runn, 4 lost 3 won +2 1/4 on the day comm paid gl
By:
saddo
When: 24 Apr 18 08:30
I wondered when you'd show up Laugh
By:
deadbrain59
When: 24 Apr 18 09:39
dilly dillyMischief
By:
elise
When: 24 Apr 18 10:40
pm andrew, nothing to do with horses and no rush
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 24 Apr 18 10:51
Many thanks for the comments guys.

As stated yesterday, purely for the sake of this thread, I want to keep the lay odds reasonably low enough to make it interesting, and ultimately profitable within the alloted time scale.  It wouldn't be original putting up outsiders, and a winner at 4/1 would render it impossible to make a profit within the 8 level stakes days i proposed anyway.

Looking at todays cards, it's difficult to find a lay i feel reasonably confident about, although there are several at longer odds. I did consider Getabird at Punchestown as i'm still not convinced he's the real deal, and he's probably reliant on heavy ground, that he won't have today, but as yesterday, i will remain with flat rsacing.

William Haggas sends 4 runners for some sea air at Yarmouth, 3 of them unraced, the other a maiden 3 year old, and it's this horse i've selected for todays lay. A relatively cheap (55K) Nathaniel gelding whose 3 very lack lustre runs last year were obviously intended with a 3 year old handicap mark in mind (runs off 64 today). Has been backed looking at oddschecker, although very much in and out on here. Is today the day, is the money simply because of a Haggas runner amongst 2nd tier trainers, or is it a 'bookmakers' runner. The race looks tricky to read, a typical early season, maidens handicap, firm in the going description, with several unexposed types, some of whom have a fitness advantage, and I will have at least 7 with a shout running for me.

I could have got it completely wrong of course, and he may win with JD looking over his shoulder, but I doubt it, and i'm prepared to take the chance, although i didn't have many races to pick from anyway. Good luck all.

3.25 Yarmouth Cristal Spirit

24-Apr-18
11:32:46    15:25 Yarmouth
Cristal Spirit - Win
Betfair Bet ID 1:123346221982 | Matched: 24-Apr-18 11:35:39    Lay    3.25    50.00    112.50
50.00
Matched
By:
Slicer
When: 24 Apr 18 11:09
The great bookmaker from Roman times- Pinnacleus- once stated that the only way to make many denarii is to lay the short price horses. If one lays outsiders, one is going to get ones bottom smacked very heavily now and again and on BF these outsiders are priced above the odds that reflect their true chance. With regard to today's selection, it is very difficult to know if this opening mark is reasonable. Hasn't run  for 169 days so has Haggas got it fit enough. Difficult to know if they are saving it for a future coup or whether it is a shoe in at todays rating. So not much to lose but I am interested in other races and am leaving this one alone. Good luck.
By:
elise
When: 24 Apr 18 11:15
pinnacleus was routed from these shores and have as yet failed to re-invade
By:
elise
When: 24 Apr 18 11:21
thanks for that, i've posted back, appreciated
By:
flushgordon1
When: 24 Apr 18 11:22
Gumball ,looks an interesting lay, its jumping has been atrocious, eskendash seems a bit short and simonia is small and is priced on its relatives performances.
By:
Lampus
When: 24 Apr 18 11:28
Good Luck Andrew  from those  os us in Cornwall   Cool
By:
Slicer
When: 24 Apr 18 11:29
You have a point, elise. However I think that is for tax reasons rather than going skinteus!
By:
deadbrain59
When: 24 Apr 18 11:59
you live and learnMischief
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 24 Apr 18 12:07
Thank you Lampus from a fellow Cornishman Cool

Slicer, thanks and you're correct. There is obviously an element of 'hunch' involved with the
lightweight, but negative reasoning today. I was far more confident with yesterdays selection, and given the choice would have opted out of posting a lay today, but that would have been too easy.

Elise, YW
By:
Movewiththetimes
When: 24 Apr 18 12:47
WD yesterday and FWIW I think today's lay is a good one, Haggas is like a Cecil to me runs horses on merit till he finds a race right for every horse (if he can) if you look at his last 5 years stats they're very consistent and although he learned his trade under Sir Mark Prescott he's not a plotter. Only thing going today for this horse is the up in trip but I don't think today is it's day.

GL.

P.S Haggas is 1/11 this season for 3 Yr old turf.
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 24 Apr 18 13:30
Only thing going today for this horse is the up in trip 
Look again movewiththetimes, it's got much more going for it than that.

Not that I'd back it or lay it, I avoid these kinds of races.
By:
Movewiththetimes
When: 24 Apr 18 13:35
Much more?? Do tell please Dr before the 5/2 goes.
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