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differentdrum
17 Feb 18 20:33
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 13,181 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
If you listen to trainer and jockey this horse probably isn't going to run. He is near enough favourite for the Ryanair and probably should favourite over Un De Sceaux who last year beat a Grade 2 horse and a handicapper.

If they are so desperate for soft ground chances are we are never going to see him at the Festival. When he has been impressive on good to soft ground presumably the ground was much softer than given?

Right now he looks at the top of his game. In a year's time or even two year's time who knows whether he will be in the same condition.

Perhaps the lure of the Festival doesn't mean that much to those concerned but it is hard to be considered a true great and keep avoiding Cheltenham. I can't think of too many examples, if any.   

Hopefully, we will see him, but it sounds odds against unless the weather plays a significant hand.

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Replies: 80
By:
geordie1956
When: 17 Feb 18 21:03
seen many horses give chelters a miss but the opportunity to go there at the top of your game are few & far and the ideal opportunity to win a big race there often doesn't strike twice
go for it i say; surely the ground will be on the easier side of good if not downright soft
By:
wondersobright
When: 17 Feb 18 21:12
When he has been impressive on good to soft ground presumably the ground was much softer than given?

which race/races?
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 17 Feb 18 21:15
Winning Melling Chase has just as must prestige as Ryanair if not more.
By:
Steamship
When: 17 Feb 18 21:17
IMO he should be put away till Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. Winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham does not make you a great
By:
Steamship
When: 17 Feb 18 21:17
IMO he should be put away till Betfair Chase at Haydock in November. Winning the Ryanair at Cheltenham does not make you a great
By:
chavman
When: 17 Feb 18 21:20
ground and opposition are the variables
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Feb 18 21:27
The official ground at Kempton was good to soft and to my eyes he bolted up.

You obviously have a downer on the Ryanair but as I said name a great who consistently avoided the Cheltenham Festival?
By:
Meat Loaf
When: 17 Feb 18 21:31
If he was mine I'd either wait for Aintree or supplement him for Gold Cup
By:
wondersobright
When: 17 Feb 18 21:32
kempton was given as soft side of g/s (5.9)
if you remember last year claisse put 10mm of water before the thurs to produce ground that was good, g/s places (7.1)
that's significantly quicker ground at cheltenham even accounting for the scandalous amount of watering
By:
wondersobright
When: 17 Feb 18 21:33
having said that how do you skip cheltenham with a 170+ horse
I know malcolm skipped chelt with dato star but in those days it was allowed to get firm, different era
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Feb 18 21:38
I can only think of two groups of people who wouldn't want to see him at Cheltenham, the bookmakers (particularly Corals who were standout price for a long time) and anyone who has backed the opposition.
By:
chavman
When: 17 Feb 18 21:39
id concur with loafy
By:
easymoney
When: 17 Feb 18 21:42
Aside from the Gold Cup after a drying fortnight and two sunny and breezy days after the Weds nite watering, will the ground for the Ryanair or Champion Chase (bizzarely not entered in either the GC or CC) really be that different to todays ... results and times today suggest that was Ascot was ostensibly gd to soft today.

Be very disappointing to see the North finallly have a worthy Grade 1 animal and them not even take a pop at something ...
If it actually rained early March a soft ground clash with Altior (and Min) would be a cracking prospect on paper.
By:
wondersobright
When: 17 Feb 18 21:45
the ground today was similar to kempton imo

they've taken him out of the QMCC
By:
wondersobright
When: 17 Feb 18 21:46
will be significantly quicker in march imo
we are already seeing drying days and g/s appearing
By:
Steamship
When: 17 Feb 18 21:49
Actually I like Ryanair as a race. I'm not sure if it's the right thing for him at this stage, that said maybe strike while the iron is hot. Its all about opinions.
By:
easymoney
When: 17 Feb 18 21:59
I agree nothing wrong with being a great 2.5 mile chaser ... I just hope to see the horse turn up.
Looking back at times today they do suggest soft ground but the way the races rode visually, with the flat bred winning the first, Minella Daddy and Regal Encore leaving the Sft ground specialists for dead and the 60's Icon mare having too many gears for the NH breds in the bumper, I find it hard to believe that the lush freshly watered ground at Prestbury Park will be something WP can't handle.
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Feb 18 22:12
Wonder, do you know how often the ground at Aintree is softer than Cheltenham?

They were also talking Irish options. I don't remember Malcolm sending too many in that direction. Certainly no guarantee of slower ground at Punchestown. Maybe they will just finish him for the season?
By:
wondersobright
When: 17 Feb 18 22:19
not soft v often dd but there is more chance of more forgiving spring ground at aintree
By:
wondersobright
When: 17 Feb 18 22:19
I would imagine he will run at 1 festival only
By:
differentdrum
When: 18 Feb 18 00:30
They also seem to have an idea that he is better on a flat track. How would they know that without actually trying? Perhaps if they had already tried him in a soft ground race at Cheltenham it would have answered the questions? 

As for the King George target he clearly has plenty of speed and isn't from a family of stayers. He also seemed to stop very quickly after the line today. I wouldn't say three miles is a gimme at all.
By:
1st time poster
When: 18 Feb 18 04:46
HE WAS PULLED UP on the line AFTER SHYING AWAY FROM someone taking a photo on the inside of the track
By:
wondersobright
When: 18 Feb 18 08:28
the horse resented the smacks he got on the run in also
By:
wondersobright
When: 18 Feb 18 08:28
malcolm said do not hit this horse
By:
Gordon63
When: 18 Feb 18 09:03
if weather is good then Mr Claisse will water to ensure no faster than good to soft if weather is bad then mother nature will be in charge, either way the ground should be suitable, however this stable/owner will do things their own way so no surprise if given an extra four weeks to recover from what must have been a very hard race as they went a real pace throughout, and try (again weather permitting) either the betway bowl (depending on which horses go there from Cheltenham and whether they want to try the step up in distance this season on 2018 KG which has been their long term target) or the more likely melling chase - and for those concerned about faster ground at aintree, the whole 2016 meeting there was run on soft/good to soft
By:
wondersobright
When: 18 Feb 18 09:34
the ryanair has been run on good ground (7.0+) each of the last 4 years
in his last 2 runs (high 160s, low 170s runs) waiting patiently has been running on at best g/s side of side (high 5s)

they said after he ran 2nd to cloudy dream as a young horse at donny, on the ground quickest he has ever raced on (good, 7.7), that he was sore afterwards
and he has also had knee issues last ssn
By:
wondersobright
When: 18 Feb 18 09:36
if people want to believe he will be capable of winning a grade 1 on good ground then good for them

he might

but THEY might not have a horse capable of doing it more than once

he's only 7 slowly slowly catchee monkee
By:
differentdrum
When: 18 Feb 18 10:09
I listened to the interview with Ruth Jefferson and to me she came across very well. She did say how do you know unless you try something and that is surely key. You could go on 'protecting' him and making fleeting visits to the track when in fact he might actually be up to the task but never given the chance to try. There is a risk with all horses. He wouldn't be the only one who went to Cheltenham wanting softer ground. Do those owners think less about their horses? How often do we hear from the jocks that it is good, safe ground. Is that just a meaningless phrase?     

That run against Cloudy Dream was in hindsight perfectly respectable and presumably it is fair to assume that he is a considerably stronger horse now. I am guessing lots of young horses have initial problems. He is only 7 but a very lightly raced horse who could be at the top of his game. If you avoid Cheltenham this year then if you are consistent you avoid next year and the year after with a horse who might not be in the same form. He could have 'gone' by then and there would be no decision to make.
By:
wondersobright
When: 18 Feb 18 10:32
I thought she came across well also dd

and like I said earlier, it is a different era to when malcolm missed cheltenham with dato star due to proper quick ground
I am expecting it to be the usual spring good or mixture g,g/s, brilliant covering of grass, bouncy ground

I hope its sufficiently juicy enough for them to give it a bash, racing is so much better for having a north that is properly taking part
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Feb 18 11:11
Sounds to me they will do what they think is best for the horse.
I would applaud that personally,and knowing that, whatever decision they make should be respected and accepted.
By:
kavvie
When: 18 Feb 18 11:19
horse is only 7 and cheltenham is a very attritional course.it bottomed many a good horse.  theres big easier won pots at aintree or punchestown this year and a summer off.then see how things are next november?
By:
differentdrum
When: 18 Feb 18 12:04
Yes, of course it is the owner's choice where they go but it doesn't mean that decision shouldn't be debated. This isn't some of soviet state. I am arguing from a point of view that I want all the best horses to turn up at Cheltenham. It should be about competition. I can't think of one other horse who would be near enough favourite who will be swerving Cheltenham on account of the ground, let alone one who would be favourite for a Grade 1. Is the ground going to be perfect for all those horses, obviously not.
By:
sageform
When: 18 Feb 18 13:30
I am surprised that they are having doubts now. If it looked likely to be fast side of good then fine.
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Feb 18 15:09
Of course it can be debated....free country and all that,and any debate on here will be done by people who do not know the horse as well as those that are making the decisions.
Therefore any decision made has to be respected and accepted as the best thing for the horse and its future.
I would think the horse will be left in until the going is known,maybe the day itself.
Its well known he may not run,so at least any bet placed can bear that in mind.
By:
impossible123
When: 18 Feb 18 15:18
I think if the ground was good or better then an abstention is sensible and wait for another day given his main target is the King George. Otherwise, give it a go as he's a chance 2nd to none even with UDS present; if UDS is not have a go too even on good ground, and only ride to win unless no chance from 5 fences out, I think.
By:
brendrew
When: 18 Feb 18 16:11
i think theyll give it a miss.stable will run cloudy dream for a place...
By:
differentdrum
When: 18 Feb 18 17:40
More negative quotes from the trainer today. It is already becoming tiresome. It seems they have already made the decision so just say he isn't running rather than turning it into a soap opera.

Yes, everyone knows it is an undulating track. That hasn't stopped many very good horses in the past. It should be a challenge rather than a problem. Is it impossible that Waiting Patiently could actually take to the place and come away a better horse for the experience? There is only one way to find out. Nobody actually knows for sure unless you try.

Contrast the attitude with that of those connected with Sam Spinner. It is guesswork how he will take to track and I am sure he would like a nice bit of soft ground as well but there has been no suggestion he wouldn't take his chance.
By:
GAZO
When: 18 Feb 18 17:59
Would imagine they will stick to whatever the trainers dad had to say before he passed away
By:
buddeliea
When: 18 Feb 18 18:10
Whats the problem here? Is this all about bets already placed without nrnb concession?
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