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Escapee
03 Nov 17 13:32
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Date Joined: 27 Aug 04
| Topic/replies: 4,024 | Blogger: Escapee's blog
The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long term

In this thread I'm going to track some of my (perceived) value bets to see if I'm finding value or not.

Expect long losing streaks

1) 12 Moqarrab (USA)
Foaled May 1. $400,000 half-brother to 6f-1m winner Indian Annie.
Yard's 2-y-os have generally come on for a run this season, but he will need considering if the market vibes are positive

Note: all bets will be BACK unless otherwise stated

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Replies: 84
By:
Escapee
When: 03 Nov 17 13:32
that's the 12:35 Newmarket Blush
By:
Escapee
When: 03 Nov 17 13:56
See if I can keep track in an orderly fashion

    Date        Race        Horse        B/L        BFSP        MyAvg        Place        £10@BFSP        £10@MyAvg                BFSPtot        MyAvgTot   
    03/11/2017        12:35 NewMarket        Moqarrab        B        10.4        11.25        4        -£10        -£10        :(        -£10        -£10   
By:
Escapee
When: 03 Nov 17 19:31
2) 18:45 Newc KHAMRY

I managed to get half the bet on @10's and it's now 8.0-8.2, will get the other half on if I can get 9 or better otherwise its just a half point bet
By:
ged
When: 03 Nov 17 19:41
How can you possibly hope to determine 'value' on an unraced horse, unless you have ridden work on it, or are close mates with someone who has - and also know something of the unraced opposition? There's a fair amount to be said for your cause, but your first bet was waiting on 'market vibes' (by which time, any, if not all, available 'value' will have gone), and your second bet is punting in pitch blackness, so I think you've not got the hang of the 'value' concept.
By:
Escapee
When: 03 Nov 17 19:46
Thankyou for your concern ged, I reckon the results will let me know if I have the hang of the value concept in this context.

It's now into 6.8-7.0 so there must be some other clueless people out there as well Wink
By:
Escapee
When: 03 Nov 17 19:51
bah 3rd, got to 1.42 in running, thought I had it for a few seconds

    Date        Race        Horse        B/L        BFSP        MyAvg        Place        £10@BFSP        £10@MyAvg                BFSPtot        MyAvgTot        Notes   
    03/11/2017        12:35 NewMarket        Moqarrab        B        10.4        11.25        4/14        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£10.00        -£10.00           
    03/11/2017        18:45 Newc        Khamry        B        8.15        10        3/9        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£15.00        -£15.00    Only got half bet as it steamed right in
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 13:03
3) Kemp 13:20 Labrega Win + Place

The favourite has good claims on this, but Labrega has some good pedigree and is where I think the value is in this race

I got the first part of my win bet on at 30, a bit more at 18, hoping it doesn't come in any more so I can get the rest on
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 13:29
Not sure of the result, Racing post showing a dead heat 2nd and also 2 horses dead heat 3rd, not seen that before???!!!!

Ran a bit green, strong finish hampered by the wrong line which caused a stall when blocked by 2 horse in front.

One to keep an eye on me thinks
By:
KeMoH
When: 06 Nov 17 13:31
labrega was unplaced
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 13:36
            Date        Race        Horse        B/L        Mkt        BFSP        MyAvg        Result        £10@BFSP        £10@MyAvg                BFSPtot        MyAvgTot   
    1        03-Nov-17        12:35 NewMarket        Moqarrab        B        w        10.4        11.25        4/14        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£10.00        -£10.00   
    2        03-Nov-17        18:45 Newc        Khamry        B        w        8.15        10        3/9        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£15.00        -£15.00   
    3        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        w        15.7        23.6        6/10        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£25.00        -£25.00   
    4        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        p3        3.75        4.1        6/10        -£10.00        -£10.00        Cry        -£35.00        -£35.00   
By:
KeMoH
When: 06 Nov 17 13:42
get on black caesar in the last at kempers, at a lovely 6/1, and your search for value will be over.
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 14:59
1500 Southwell Master of Finance

betting patterns make this a bet
By:
KeMoH
When: 06 Nov 17 15:01
"betting patterns make this a bet" Plain   if thats your reasoning then may I suggest you are FINNISHED
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 15:09
100% losing record Crazy

            Date        Race        Horse        B/L        Mkt        BFSP        MyAvg        Result        £10@BFSP        £10@MyAvg                BFSPtot        MyAvgTot   
    1        03-Nov-17        12:35 NewMarket        Moqarrab        B        w        10.4        11.25        4/14        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£10.00        -£10.00   
    2        03-Nov-17        18:45 Newc        Khamry        B        w        8.15        10        3/9        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£15.00        -£15.00   
    3        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        w        15.7        23.6        6/10        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£25.00        -£25.00   
    4        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        p3        3.75        4.1        6/10        -£10.00        -£10.00        Cry        -£35.00        -£35.00   
    5        06-Nov-17        15:00 southwell        Master of Finance        B        w        4.3        4.1        3/6        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£45.00        -£45.00   
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 15:11
Those betting patterns produced 3 winners from last 3 bets, ofcourse now I post it up it loses
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 15:49
3:50 kemp



Pettochside 1/2 point winplace
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 15:56
            Date        Race        Horse        B/L        Mkt        BFSP        MyAvg        Result        £10@BFSP        £10@MyAvg                BFSPtot        MyAvgTot   
    1        03-Nov-17        12:35 NewMarket        Moqarrab        B        w        10.4        11.25        4/14        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£10.00        -£10.00   
    2        03-Nov-17        18:45 Newc        Khamry        B        w        8.15        10        3/9        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£15.00        -£15.00   
    3        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        w        15.7        23.6        6/10        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£25.00        -£25.00   
    4        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        p3        3.75        4.1        6/10        -£10.00        -£10.00        Cry        -£35.00        -£35.00   
    5        06-Nov-17        15:00 southwell        Master of Finance        B        w        4.3        4.1        3/6        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£45.00        -£45.00   
    6        06-Nov-17        15:50 kemp        Pettochside        B        w        130        97        11/11        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£50.00        -£50.00   
    7        06-Nov-17        15:50 kemp        Pettochside        B        p3        15        12        11/11        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£55.00        -£55.00   
By:
Dr Crippen
When: 06 Nov 17 16:12
The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long term

I'd make one adjustment to that.

''The reality is that if you find value bets and enough of them win then you'll make a profit in the long run.''

The same goes for finding poor value bets.

There's a message there.
By:
Escapee
When: 06 Nov 17 16:17
Can't really argue with the logic of your caveat, 'cept to think that enough of them don't win then surely the overall set is not the value being sought
By:
Escapee
When: 08 Nov 17 13:03
8) Nott 13:05 True Destiny

Unraced with a winning pedigree
By:
Escapee
When: 08 Nov 17 13:09
True Destiny ? more like Truely Awful Cry
By:
KeMoH
When: 08 Nov 17 13:14
time to give up the game mate, the writing is on the wall. more chance of me taking a $h!t in the queens hat than you finding value. looking for value in a 14 runner 2 year old maiden, let alone on a horse that is unraced, ffs, quick way to the poor house.
By:
KeMoH
When: 08 Nov 17 13:15
the only suggestion i can make is to follow me in on my filthy e/w double (just posted a fred)
By:
KeMoH
When: 08 Nov 17 13:18
this fred has more sad faces than a crematorium
By:
Studious_1
When: 08 Nov 17 13:28
KeMoh with respect...he might be backing losers here (thus far at least - good luck Escapee moving on) but let him do so without bringing him down at every corner?  Seriously what's the point in that.

Your recent selections haven't exactly lit the world alight looking at the recent last two pages of this forum but nobody is telling you to give it up.
By:
KeMoH
When: 08 Nov 17 13:33
sweet jesus, studious, i have willie shafter commenting on every fred i put up, but i havent seen you condemn his comments. just trying to bring a bit of humour to an otherwise depressing fred.
By:
Escapee
When: 08 Nov 17 13:39
13:40 Nott,  Hombre Casado  win/place

thanks Studious1


I can take the banter Kemoh, ( keep it coming ) but studious1 is right it can be off putting to many with more sensitivities than me

good luck
By:
Escapee
When: 08 Nov 17 13:45
another lemon
By:
Keefter
When: 08 Nov 17 13:48

Nov 6, 2017 -- 4:12PM, Dr Crippen wrote:


The reality is that if you find value bets then you will make a profit in the long termI'd make one adjustment to that.''The reality is that if you find value bets and enough of them win then you'll make a profit in the long run.''The same goes for finding poor value bets.There's a message there.


If you found 'poor' value bets and made a profit from them long term they wouldn't be poor value ;-)

By:
Studious_1
When: 08 Nov 17 13:49
Why is it depressing because he's tipped 5 losers some of those being huge prices?

I don't think 'time to give up the game mate, the writing is on the wall. more chance of me taking a $h!t in the queens hat than you finding value'....don't think that's humour, it's just a put down isn't it?

As for Willie on your threads, I've seen him posting on a few on page 1 (not read this place for a while) - I don't know the man well but I know enough to know when he posts it's usually for fair reason so if he's doing that on all your threads -  I'd be looking to you rather than him as to why.  Might not be what you want to hear but just saying it straight.
By:
stewarty b
When: 08 Nov 17 13:49
tbf to the OP he did say...


Expect long losing streaks
By:
Escapee
When: 08 Nov 17 14:31
I have the magic touch of picking 11th placed horse at the moment

            Date        Race        Horse        B/L        Mkt        BFSP        MyAvg        Result        £10@BFSP        £10@MyAvg                BFSPtot        MyAvgTot   
    1        03-Nov-17        12:35 NewMarket        Moqarrab        B        w        10.4        11.25        4/14        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£10.00        -£10.00   
    2        03-Nov-17        18:45 Newc        Khamry        B        w        8.15        10        3/9        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£15.00        -£15.00   
    3        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        w        15.7        23.6        6/10        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£25.00        -£25.00   
    4        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        p3        3.75        4.1        6/10        -£10.00        -£10.00        Cry        -£35.00        -£35.00   
    5        06-Nov-17        15:00 southwell        Master of Finance        B        w        4.3        4.1        3/6        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£45.00        -£45.00   
    6        06-Nov-17        15:50 kemp        Pettochside        B        w        130        97        11/11        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£50.00        -£50.00   
    7        06-Nov-17        15:50 kemp        Pettochside        B        p3        15        12        11/11        -£5.00        -£5.00        Sad        -£55.00        -£55.00   
    8        08-Nov-17        13:05 Nott        True Destiny        B        W        14.4        16.5        11/14        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£65.00        -£65.00   
    9        08-Nov-17        13:40 nott        Hombre Casado                W        46        40        11/14        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£75.00        -£75.00   
    10        08-Nov-17        13:40 nott        Hombre Casado                p3        14.6        12.5        11/14        -£10.00        -£10.00        Sad        -£85.00        -£85.00   
By:
Escapee
When: 09 Nov 17 14:20
Ludlow 14:20 Boy In A Bentley to place @6.2

either going to pull up of try all y so 6.2 looks like good value on the place market IMO
By:
Escapee
When: 09 Nov 17 14:42
10th/12 faded 3 out

100% losing record so far, hope someone is laying all these 'value' bets

            Date        Race        Horse        B/L        Mkt        BFSP        MyAvg        Result            £10@MyAvg                MyAvgTot   
    1        03-Nov-17        12:35 NewMarket        Moqarrab        B        w        10.4        11.25        4/14            -£10.00        Sad        -£10.00   
    2        03-Nov-17        18:45 Newc        Khamry        B        w        8.15        10        3/9            -£5.00        Sad        -£15.00   
    3        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        w        15.7        23.6        6/10            -£10.00        Sad        -£25.00   
    4        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        p3        3.75        4.1        6/10            -£10.00        Cry        -£35.00   
    5        06-Nov-17        15:00 southwell        Master of Finance        B        w        4.3        4.1        3/6            -£10.00        Sad        -£45.00   
    6        06-Nov-17        15:50 kemp        Pettochside        B        w        130        97        11/11            -£5.00        Sad        -£50.00   
    7        06-Nov-17        15:50 kemp        Pettochside        B        p3        15        12        11/11            -£5.00        Sad        -£55.00   
    8        08-Nov-17        13:05 Nott        True Destiny        B        W        14.4        16.5        11/14            -£10.00        Sad        -£65.00   
    9        08-Nov-17        13:40 nott        Hombre Casado        B        W        46        40        11/14            -£10.00        Sad        -£75.00   
    10        08-Nov-17        13:40 nott        Hombre Casado        B        p3        14.6        12.5        11/14            -£10.00        Sad        -£85.00   
    11        09-Nov-17        14:20 Ludlow        Boy In A Bentley        B        p3        6.88        6.2        10/12            -£10.00        Sad        -£95.00   
By:
stewarty b
When: 09 Nov 17 15:08
Pity it didn't finish 11th Escapee, at least you would prove you were consistent! I'm sure you'll bag a cracker soon. GL.
By:
Escapee
When: 16 Nov 17 18:46
12) Chelmsford 6:55 Flora Sanders
By:
stewarty b
When: 16 Nov 17 19:00
WD Escapee.
By:
Escapee
When: 16 Nov 17 19:16
Thankyou stewarty Happy

Much needed win, long time coming and still not in profit yet.

I'm on around 3% commission but I'll use the 5% base rate for the records

            Date        Race        Horse        B/L        Mkt        BFSP        MyAvg        Result            £10@MyAvg                MyAvgTot   
    1        03-Nov-17        12:35 NewMarket        Moqarrab        B        w        10.4        11.25        4/14            -£10.00        Sad        -£10.00   
    2        03-Nov-17        18:45 Newc        Khamry        B        w        8.15        10        3/9            -£5.00        Sad        -£15.00   
    3        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        w        15.7        23.6        6/10            -£10.00        Sad        -£25.00   
    4        06-Nov-17        13:20 Kemp        Lebrega        B        p3        3.75        4.1        6/10            -£10.00        Cry        -£35.00   
    5        06-Nov-17        15:00 southwell        Master of Finance        B        w        4.3        4.1        3/6            -£10.00        Sad        -£45.00   
    6        06-Nov-17        15:50 kemp        Pettochside        B        w        130        97        11/11            -£5.00        Sad        -£50.00   
    7        06-Nov-17        15:50 kemp        Pettochside        B        p3        15        12        11/11            -£5.00        Sad        -£55.00   
    8        08-Nov-17        13:05 Nott        True Destiny        B        W        14.4        16.5        11/14            -£10.00        Sad        -£65.00   
    9        08-Nov-17        13:40 nott        Hombre Casado        B        W        46        40        11/14            -£10.00        Sad        -£75.00   
    10        08-Nov-17        13:40 nott        Hombre Casado        B        p3        14.6        12.5        11/14            -£10.00        Sad        -£85.00   
    11        09-Nov-17        14:20 Ludlow        Boy In A Bentley        B        p3        6.88        6.2        10/12            -£10.00        Sad        -£95.00   
    12        16-Nov-17        6:55 Chelms        Flora Sandes        B        W        8.36        9        1/14            £76.00        Excited        -£19.00   
By:
KeMoH
When: 16 Nov 17 19:18
Hi Escapee, just read back some of my earlier comments on this thread and, upon reflection, they would appear to come across as very harsh. Therefore, I offer you my apologies... I commend anyone who is on a quest to find value and well done for sniffing out that 11/2 winner at Chelmsford! All the best going forward.
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