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Nice article..
Examining the inner detail of a profitable system
Over the last few years I have taken the opportunity following invitation to appear regularly
on various thoroughbred racing Radio shows. In addition, I have (at the request of Betfair
Australia) published various educational articles and feature race analysis.
In many of my discussions I inadvertently revealed some of the keys to my own betting
success. On the one hand, I have wanted to educate punters, on the other I have tried to
protect the key attributes of my intellectual property and processes. During this period, I
have also read several articles within the public domain via various media outlets that
reveal selective betting opportunities using various form factors that are seemingly
undervalued by the market.
What these articles did show was that a net profit was achievable (assuming you followed
what were seemingly simple rules). What they didn’t show was the ‘inner detail’. What I am
referring to is the experience, the journey towards achieving the result. So, before you
rejoice in finding what might be a free, profitable, and easy to follow method, read on.
‘What we are talking about affects every system or method to some degree’. We have
coined a term for it. ‘The Realities of Punting’ and have used it previously to assist clients
and other punters with the view of giving them the knowledge and tools which allow them to
be able to set achievable goals for their betting underpinned by realistic expectations.
My own analysis of some of these methods reveals that they could be worthwhile for the
purposes of identifying a potential list of bets that with some further analysis could deliver
decent profits. I have selected a simple system that I ran using the R2W Axis database for
further analysis.
System* Bets(1,900) Wins(337) Strike Rate(17.7%) POT(4.48%) Bank growth(61.94%)
*System is based on a date range of 01/08/2010 to 31/07/2016 (6 years) and uses the median Starting Price
of the major corporate bookmakers.
Whilst the headline result from this system is impressive (compared to the benchmark result
which is significantly negative) the ‘inner detail’ of the journey will reveal some potentially
disturbing but inescapable facts. We are not insinuating anything sinister, in fact the issues
we are talking about effects every system or method to some degree.
For many, punting has a built-in level of a blind and enthusiastic expectation of winning and
being able to make it as a successful punter. Unfortunately, these expectations and goals
often scope beyond reality. There is nothing wrong with you having hopes and dreams.
However, the simple fact is that they are far more likely to materialise if they are grounded
in logic and if you accept mathematical realities. Further, being realistic about one’s
chances will result in far less disappointment and make punting a more positive experience.
Profitability
The obvious question is when analysing system performance is, did we make enough
money? Most punters would probably find it hard to face the reality that with a $10,000
bank the most you could win using a profitable system over 6 years is around $6,194. It’s
certainly nothing to sneeze at but nowhere enough to turn professional and quit your job.
There is not enough turnover and even if you increase your stake 10-fold, and if you can
consistently get set, $62,000 over 3 years is still quite low for living purposes. A method like
this may be suitable as part of a suite of systems which would provide enough bets to
produce a profit that in turn meets your needs. This brings us to a point in the narrative
where we examine the sustainability of the method.
Sustainability
For many, the outcomes above could be more than satisfactory for a bit extra cash on the
side. The practical problem is that betting those selections would require you to never miss
a bet. That could be a problem if you have planned holidays or other events in your life, or
simply if you have a life. But, assuming you could manage that, there is then the question of
endurance.
To be able to endure the system’s ups and downs, it is necessary to understand its
behaviour and determine if in fact you can indeed sustain the stress it places on you as a
punter to reap the projected benefits.
Most punters focus only on the result and they miss a critical factor of the system; it’s
winning dynamic. This determines the systems sustainability, as it applies to your ability to
continue with it during the inescapable bad runs. Sadly, most punters never see the guts of
the system until the reality hits them square between the eyes. If you assume that you
would receive a steady supply of tax-free money with a profitable system, you would be
GREATLY mistaken.
Running a simple betting analysis quickly reveals some startling realities:
Max Bank Risk 31.5%, Max Bank Drawdown $6,139. In any block of 50 bets, you can
expect: 9 winners on average, as few as 3 winners and as many as 13 winners BUT…
“The Feel-Like-A-Winner indicator is only 2.6% or just 49 bets from the 1,900 in total.
This means that 97.4% of the time your bank will be somewhere less than its
previous high. You will only advance or equal a previous bank high on 49 occasions
in 6 years”.
Examining the 5 largest drawdowns shows the above also means that you would have
experienced periods of 1,190 days (884 bets), 100 days (186 bets), 175 days (165 bets), 77
days (136 bets) and 119 days (96 bets) between those rare occasions when your Bank
reached a new high.
“The Feel-Like-A-Winner indicator is probably the easiest way to present the reality
of how a system performs in plain terms”. You don’t need a Ph.D. in mathematics, pie
charts or graphs to understand it, and together with the drawdown break-down, it is a
simple yet effective way to evaluate the true performance of a system. While a system may
be in profit compared to its starting bank, most punters will fail to deal with the fact that they
will feel like they are losing (using the system under review) around 97.4% of the time, as
their punting Bank will be at a lower level compared to its previous high.
The questions you need to ask yourself is, will you be able to handle waiting up to 1,190
days between new bank highs? Can you handle clawing your way back only to be smacked
down again? And then front up for perhaps another 175 days wait before you again
experience that winning feeling? Remember, the whole period is 6 years in total. Can you
handle the $6,139 (actual dollars) bank drawdown? Do you know where most of the profit
was made? Will you miss a crucial set of winning bets because you have family
commitments? I guess you get the picture.
It is also worth remembering that making decisions about a system based on a system test,
where you have the foresight of the total outcome is far easier to absorb than going through
the experience described above.
Having examined the system in the above manner, we can say that it is plausible that you
could win with it. The difficulties presented in this article may be one of the reasons why the
angles used in this system remain ‘undervalued’ by the market; not because the market
can’t find these pockets of profit, that’s the easier part (assuming you have an accurate
database upon which to research and identify these market weaknesses). More likely,
these are like honey traps that leave most of their unprepared users disillusioned; if not
broke as they go off the rails.
Punters that play the long game necessary for the rewards to materialise, will find these
and others as the gifts that keep on giving. These punters have the right mindset and
access to right tools that can dissect a system in such a manner that have the propensity to
reveal it’s dynamic. This type of research will show them how to take advantage of these
pockets of gold and forewarn them about any relevant pitfalls.
The tools mentioned above are available in the R2W Axis database and as punters, we use
them on daily basis; as do many of our other clients. Our success comes from providing our
clients with real-world information, knowledge, and the actual tools that we ourselves use.
The above advice is certainly not the enthusiastic ‘feel good’ kind and whilst we accept that,
the sobering point we are trying to make is that whatever your hopes are and how you feel
about information won’t change what happens. Financial success from betting is only
achieved by facing the inescapable Realities of Punting.
Cheers and Good Punting
Paul Daily
Examining the inner detail of a profitable system
Over the last few years I have taken the opportunity following invitation to appear regularly
on various thoroughbred racing Radio shows. In addition, I have (at the request of Betfair
Australia) published various educational articles and feature race analysis.
In many of my discussions I inadvertently revealed some of the keys to my own betting
success. On the one hand, I have wanted to educate punters, on the other I have tried to
protect the key attributes of my intellectual property and processes. During this period, I
have also read several articles within the public domain via various media outlets that
reveal selective betting opportunities using various form factors that are seemingly
undervalued by the market.
What these articles did show was that a net profit was achievable (assuming you followed
what were seemingly simple rules). What they didn’t show was the ‘inner detail’. What I am
referring to is the experience, the journey towards achieving the result. So, before you
rejoice in finding what might be a free, profitable, and easy to follow method, read on.
‘What we are talking about affects every system or method to some degree’. We have
coined a term for it. ‘The Realities of Punting’ and have used it previously to assist clients
and other punters with the view of giving them the knowledge and tools which allow them to
be able to set achievable goals for their betting underpinned by realistic expectations.
My own analysis of some of these methods reveals that they could be worthwhile for the
purposes of identifying a potential list of bets that with some further analysis could deliver
decent profits. I have selected a simple system that I ran using the R2W Axis database for
further analysis.
System* Bets(1,900) Wins(337) Strike Rate(17.7%) POT(4.48%) Bank growth(61.94%)
*System is based on a date range of 01/08/2010 to 31/07/2016 (6 years) and uses the median Starting Price
of the major corporate bookmakers.
Whilst the headline result from this system is impressive (compared to the benchmark result
which is significantly negative) the ‘inner detail’ of the journey will reveal some potentially
disturbing but inescapable facts. We are not insinuating anything sinister, in fact the issues
we are talking about effects every system or method to some degree.
For many, punting has a built-in level of a blind and enthusiastic expectation of winning and
being able to make it as a successful punter. Unfortunately, these expectations and goals
often scope beyond reality. There is nothing wrong with you having hopes and dreams.
However, the simple fact is that they are far more likely to materialise if they are grounded
in logic and if you accept mathematical realities. Further, being realistic about one’s
chances will result in far less disappointment and make punting a more positive experience.
Profitability
The obvious question is when analysing system performance is, did we make enough
money? Most punters would probably find it hard to face the reality that with a $10,000
bank the most you could win using a profitable system over 6 years is around $6,194. It’s
certainly nothing to sneeze at but nowhere enough to turn professional and quit your job.
There is not enough turnover and even if you increase your stake 10-fold, and if you can
consistently get set, $62,000 over 3 years is still quite low for living purposes. A method like
this may be suitable as part of a suite of systems which would provide enough bets to
produce a profit that in turn meets your needs. This brings us to a point in the narrative
where we examine the sustainability of the method.
Sustainability
For many, the outcomes above could be more than satisfactory for a bit extra cash on the
side. The practical problem is that betting those selections would require you to never miss
a bet. That could be a problem if you have planned holidays or other events in your life, or
simply if you have a life. But, assuming you could manage that, there is then the question of
endurance.
To be able to endure the system’s ups and downs, it is necessary to understand its
behaviour and determine if in fact you can indeed sustain the stress it places on you as a
punter to reap the projected benefits.
Most punters focus only on the result and they miss a critical factor of the system; it’s
winning dynamic. This determines the systems sustainability, as it applies to your ability to
continue with it during the inescapable bad runs. Sadly, most punters never see the guts of
the system until the reality hits them square between the eyes. If you assume that you
would receive a steady supply of tax-free money with a profitable system, you would be
GREATLY mistaken.
Running a simple betting analysis quickly reveals some startling realities:
Max Bank Risk 31.5%, Max Bank Drawdown $6,139. In any block of 50 bets, you can
expect: 9 winners on average, as few as 3 winners and as many as 13 winners BUT…
“The Feel-Like-A-Winner indicator is only 2.6% or just 49 bets from the 1,900 in total.
This means that 97.4% of the time your bank will be somewhere less than its
previous high. You will only advance or equal a previous bank high on 49 occasions
in 6 years”.
Examining the 5 largest drawdowns shows the above also means that you would have
experienced periods of 1,190 days (884 bets), 100 days (186 bets), 175 days (165 bets), 77
days (136 bets) and 119 days (96 bets) between those rare occasions when your Bank
reached a new high.
“The Feel-Like-A-Winner indicator is probably the easiest way to present the reality
of how a system performs in plain terms”. You don’t need a Ph.D. in mathematics, pie
charts or graphs to understand it, and together with the drawdown break-down, it is a
simple yet effective way to evaluate the true performance of a system. While a system may
be in profit compared to its starting bank, most punters will fail to deal with the fact that they
will feel like they are losing (using the system under review) around 97.4% of the time, as
their punting Bank will be at a lower level compared to its previous high.
The questions you need to ask yourself is, will you be able to handle waiting up to 1,190
days between new bank highs? Can you handle clawing your way back only to be smacked
down again? And then front up for perhaps another 175 days wait before you again
experience that winning feeling? Remember, the whole period is 6 years in total. Can you
handle the $6,139 (actual dollars) bank drawdown? Do you know where most of the profit
was made? Will you miss a crucial set of winning bets because you have family
commitments? I guess you get the picture.
It is also worth remembering that making decisions about a system based on a system test,
where you have the foresight of the total outcome is far easier to absorb than going through
the experience described above.
Having examined the system in the above manner, we can say that it is plausible that you
could win with it. The difficulties presented in this article may be one of the reasons why the
angles used in this system remain ‘undervalued’ by the market; not because the market
can’t find these pockets of profit, that’s the easier part (assuming you have an accurate
database upon which to research and identify these market weaknesses). More likely,
these are like honey traps that leave most of their unprepared users disillusioned; if not
broke as they go off the rails.
Punters that play the long game necessary for the rewards to materialise, will find these
and others as the gifts that keep on giving. These punters have the right mindset and
access to right tools that can dissect a system in such a manner that have the propensity to
reveal it’s dynamic. This type of research will show them how to take advantage of these
pockets of gold and forewarn them about any relevant pitfalls.
The tools mentioned above are available in the R2W Axis database and as punters, we use
them on daily basis; as do many of our other clients. Our success comes from providing our
clients with real-world information, knowledge, and the actual tools that we ourselves use.
The above advice is certainly not the enthusiastic ‘feel good’ kind and whilst we accept that,
the sobering point we are trying to make is that whatever your hopes are and how you feel
about information won’t change what happens. Financial success from betting is only
achieved by facing the inescapable Realities of Punting.
Cheers and Good Punting
Paul Daily
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Replies: 29
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"In many of my discussions I inadvertently revealed some of the keys to my own betting
success. On the one hand, I have wanted to educate punters, on the other I have tried to protect the key attributes of my intellectual property and processes. During this period, I have also read several articles within the public domain via various media outlets that reveal selective betting opportunities using various form factors that are seemingly undervalued by the market" I fear this may be total bu77shit but you should make your own judgement  |
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Sounds interesting - but difficult to understand. Can someone explain the gist of it? Started keeping records beginning of 2015 and by the end of August 2015 my profit on the year stood at £+12k, by the middle of October 2015, I had done the lot (plus a little bit more) then it took me until January 2017 to finally get that money back and move ahead. End of March this year I was £22k up since beginning of 2015, now I am back to £12k up. Is this in part is what the article is trying to say, what my betting has illustrated, there's no get rich quick and it's a long slow grind with long losing periods after a successful spell and your profit tops? TIA
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Yes--Winners,Losers,Winners etc.
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McCoy
In short - yes. If you have a system that provides good priced winners and a profit, there will be losing runs. Therefore a large enough Bank and level stakes ( % of bank) to accommodate these runs is essential. If the system has enough winning history ( at least 5 years), then there is no reason to doubt that the pattern will continue, if based on sound key indicators. Record keeping is very important, over time it will identify patterns of winners / losers. If the latter can be weeded out by changes to the formula for selection ( without sacrificing too many winners) and a bigger profit would be achieved, then change the selection criteria. But keep reviewing. |
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Facts, interesting stuff.
Do you remember posting these figures early last year? 2015 Bets 217 ( level stakes 1 point win) Wins 66 AV. SP. 6/1 Ret. 479 Profit. 262 points ROI profit = 123 % I meant to ask you at the time but never got round to it, (a) what your longest losing run was (number of races and/or number of selections), (b) what the starting bank was in £ and (c) what the bank stood at come the end of the year. |
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LLR = 19.
Not divulging specific financials - sorry. |
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its bollocks
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i think he needs to try another system
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Facts 16 Sep 17 13:13
LLR = 19. Not divulging specific financials - sorry. whats point of asking..any answer cannot be substantiate. |
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The point of the article is that "having a large enough bank" is NOT the key to profiting from a system - even one proven to be successful over a period of six years. The key is having the faith to endure a continuous three-year period during those six years in which you're a loser. Three years! And remember - at the end of those three years you have no certainty whatsoever that the tide is about to turn. None at all.
It's immaterial whether your bank is 10 grand or a hundred grand. If you spend 3 depressing years watching £5,000 go steadily down the chute, you're going to have to question whether to have that next bet. If you didn't, you're unlikely to be the kind of character to have had a hundred grand to spare in the first place. And the other, connected point which the article makes is that even if you do have ice running through your veins, along with total belief that nothing has changed to invalidate the system, will you be able to invest the time and effort to make sure you're still identifying and placing the correct bets at the end of those three years? You might, after all, have had to consider annoying distractions such as getting a regular job or a holiday to get away from it all after such an experience. |
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Thanks for your replies folks - very interesting stuff.
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The last tosh I read like this was Van Der Wheil:-)
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"You don’t need a Ph.D. in mathematics, pie charts or graphs to understand it"
A PHD in pie charts? "The questions you need to ask yourself is, will you be able to handle waiting up to 1,190 days between new bank highs? Can you handle clawing your way back only to be smacked down again? And then front up for perhaps another 175 days wait before you again experience that winning feeling? Remember, the whole period is 6 years in total." Drivel and utter mumbo jumbo. |
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He sounds shrewd and a voice of experience imo.
It's a sobering assessment of what punting for a living in the long term, over a period of decades and for the rest of your life, is really like. Keynes said: "The market can stay irrational longer than you can remain solvent." This chap shows that the real obstacle is not solvency (i.e. having a big enough bank), but faith in yourself and your system. Basically the market can stay irrational longer than you can believe you're correct and everyone else is wrong. |
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That's the problem, isn't it, King? Is it variance or has your edge gone? The biggest, most important and most difficult question a propunter has to answer.
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The only solution I've ever found which works is to go through your bets and calculate what would have happened if every horse you'd selected which came second had won, and if every winner had come second.
If you're still losing, then you're just going to have to accept that what you're doing is wrong. If, on the other hand, you find it would have turned a loss into a profit, then it might well be just variance, and it could be worth trying to persuade yourself, your wife and your bailiffs that you'd be justified in carrying on. |
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And Ingram. We'd drawn up a 3-year contract to keep him at Zum, which Maynard duly vetoed as his first act.
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What's actually killed me this year is trying to win on the exchange, and i don't really know which way to turn. My betting overall since the start of the year on the horses is £+137, but betting to BSP on my selections (with a limit price set around a tissue price or odds obtained with the bookies) is £-7620. So if I'd never had those bets my betting for the year would be £+7757. I've had 816 bets on here @ BSP, producing 153 winners, approx 19% strike rate. I backed £119508 which has returned me £111888 for the pre mentioned loss of £-7620. I'm currently on a losing streak of 76pts, haven't had a winning month on the exchange since March (with my overall betting since beginning of 2015 I've never had more than 2 losing months) and this month am currently over £1200 down. I think I'm willing to give it another 20pts roughly on my staking plan and if that goes I'll call it a day. What I can't work out is, is it just variance, or I am a mug on here and getting fleeced? If the BSP is a true reflection of a horses chance, how can I be so much down on here, but winning with the bookies? What would happen if I started laying selections to BSP instead of backing them, or would profits be swallowed up in commission & I'd be exactly where i am now? Like I said, I'm tempted to give it another couple of grand on here, (my ave stake on the exchange is £80-£100)then go back to betting with the bookies only, then once all the accounts have gone (if they go) knock it on the head. Got to say, it's been a demoralizing experience trying to win on here, very depressing, with the most horrendous losing streaks that just keep re-occurring after a small winning sequence. That graph above sums it up perfectly, the trend is down and I'm being fed to the sharks.
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that articles not worth a read its so long. the more you turn over the less likely you are to make money imo, for system players using selection criteria betting styles, unless you are a fast picture player, then the perceived wisdom is you have hit the big time. the only people who can make a good living are the best gamblers with inside info and who are good at exploiting betting opportunities, real gamblers. who was it said that horse racing betting ain't designed for idiots.
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McCoy Carp, you need to work out the time you spend turning over £119508 - and what profit (%) you'd have to make to exceed your value in the workplace. Then do whatever makes you more in the shortest time.
It's not a full time thing for me, I wrote my last post after coming in from work last night and I'm off to work again in a minute. I have a business, but it's seasonal(closes November to February)and is mainly weekend work so I have a lot of time on my hands during the week and in the winter. I've no mortgage, no dependent kids at home and my wife has a good job, so I don't need to rely on my betting to live on - which is a good thing! It's something I've always had an interest in, probably (thanks) to my late father. For the first 30 odd years of my betting life I never won & I'll probably never get back what I've lost, but in 2015 I won £3200 and last year £6500. I'm not interested in "fun" betting so to speak, I do it now to try & win and if it ends up where I can't I'll go and do something else, like go back to playing golf or get another dog - but I don't really want to do either of those things - but at the same time I don't want to be a slave to it, which has definitely happened at times over the last couple of years. It would be nice sometimes, or maybe all the time, to put the bets on, turn off the computer and the telly go and do something else and just come back later in the day and watch the replays of the bets I've had - a bit like today as it happens. Good luck all. |
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backing tony Hamilton 20/1 above bsp prices ,would be interesting
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'The obvious question is when analysing system performance is, did we make enough
money? Most punters would probably find it hard to face the reality that with a $10,000 bank the most you could win using a profitable system over 6 years is around $6,194. It’s certainly nothing to sneeze at but nowhere enough to turn professional and quit your job.' The OP is assuming here that punters are working on the basis of level stake betting, whereas there are some of us who include multiple/accumulator bets in their system. As far as my system goes, my daily multiple bets are slightly more profitable over the long term than my single betting. Over the years, my ROI is steadying out at close to the 25% mark. I would say that 55% of my overall profits are from my multiple bets and 45% from the single bets. My belief is that if your system is reasonable, then you should never have a losing year - losing months, yes, but not losing years. If you have a losing year, then you need to re-think your system method and perhaps do some tweaking and optimising. I've just had the longest losing run ever from my system at 60 consecutive losers (I do tend to pick higher priced value horses though). Unusual, but with a betting bank of £10,000 it just appears on the spreadsheets as a small downward blip in the overall picture. As regards spending huge amounts of time and effort on a daily basis - not true with me. I spend about 20 minutes working out what I'm going to back the next day and about 10 minutes placing the bets on line. I'm happy with that. |
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Sounds interesting
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Interesting indeed.
After three months or so creating more than 70 systems I havent found one yet thats giving a decent return, early days though I suppose. |
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Here is a quote from the book The Sayings of Dr Slicer, available at all not very good bookshops, nowhere in the country. " If you're a high roller & tell a casino owner in Las Vegas that you've got a system, they'll comp you a very nice hotel room, all meals & send a limo to get you the their casino!" I'm sure ALL bookies would welcome a horse racing system player as well.
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Here's one OilyWragg that's 8-years older than this thread...
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All Systims is like a French pancake- CREPE or German munitions- KRUPP
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surely if your NOT interested in fun betting,enjoyment of watching the sport, all winnings /losses start from the recent/current 5% interest you could make on your money by saving it in secure cash
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I slightly altered that one top2rated after you gave me it last time
Have Midnight Thunder and Green Storm today. |
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same as BTL people who say they might make 10% on their investment ,their really only making 10% minus the best they could make in savings accounts ,with no risk,work,expenses etc
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best cistern going is do the opposite of gaze and F@rty.
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...Ofcourse, there's always the readily available method of a 100% guarantee of breaking even every month......
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....not betting!!
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I dislike the use of the word "system". A true system implies placing bets according to rules and never varying, and never missing a bet, regardless of misgivings. That must be so dull. If you're doing this for a bit of cerebral engagement you need room to think. Strategy would be better.
For me there is simply too much racing to make a detailed study of every runner in every race and operating strict and limiting degree of specialisation, ignoring most of the card, detracts from the enjoyment, (and I wouldn't be able to help myself from straying). So I use a strategy that provides a way into a race to narrow down the field to a short list that includes the winner often enough to justify continuing to use it. I've been working an angle for the past two years that does just that, but finding the actual winners amongst the daily lists is quite a challenge. My head is above the water, but I miss so many and haven't yet found the key that isentifies what those winners have in common to hit more of them than I do. So much fun trying though. |