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differentdrum
16 Jul 17 23:26
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Date Joined: 05 Oct 11
| Topic/replies: 13,619 | Blogger: differentdrum's blog
I am no fan but I do have more than a degree of sympathy with his views. Basically, he is saying (my words) that betting on the sport has become a joke, mainly due to the unpredictability of the clowns in the weighing room.

It might have just come to a head for him but for me it has been issue for a long time.

Unless you have inside information or can stumble over the occasional big priced winner it is becoming increasingly difficult to chisel out any sort of profit.

The situation isn't going to get better because those within the sport are quite happy to see punters screwed over and over again.

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Replies: 119
By:
isleham
When: 16 Jul 17 23:37
After a 80+ losing run it really isn't MY fault..pathetic!!
By:
doantwin2easy
When: 17 Jul 17 00:02
can you post a link ddrum by any chance?
By:
thegiggilo
When: 17 Jul 17 00:12
WALOFS
By:
Sir Epicure Mammon
When: 17 Jul 17 01:12
Overwatering of tracks and 48 hour decs are the problem.

So far as Seagull is concerned he spends too much time betting on golf and tennis or watching Reading and not enough time doing his job.
He chops and changes as his losers mount up. He goes from stating he's not going to obsess about the draw and just pick the best horse ...to obsessing about the draw.
By:
dpm
When: 17 Jul 17 08:07
I totally agree with what he says, my own form has taken a dip again this summer as it did last year.  The pace of races on the flat turf is a joke sometimes, 1.5 mile races turned into 2 furlong sprints. Cant wait for the NH season to start again proper and also the AW, I know they are low grade horses/races but at least most are run at a proper pace.
By:
MJK
When: 17 Jul 17 09:24
Flat racing has become a joke to be fair, never heard so many people I know who like a bet say they only bet now on a Saturday or are off them altogether until the jump season starts proper. Too many bad jockeys getting plenty of rides because there's too much racing. Bad jockeys constantly riding against other bad jockeys means no improvement and so it goes on. So many of them who can see 5f out they're gonna be in trouble to get a gap just sit there and hope one develops instead of manufacturing one before it's too late. Never seen so many races where jockeys are getting themselves boxed in. So many gambling stables now on the flat as well means much more cheating than ever. Most tracks are now constantly churned up due to overracing and a lot have developed 'dunes' like Ripon. Flat racing has become not only difficult to bet on but also a poor spectacle to watch, no matter how much Ed Chamberlain overdoes it. Ps, let's also not forget the blanket gravy train punditry that has infested the game.
By:
jmdc
When: 17 Jul 17 11:20
^ For once I agree with you MJK.  I trust you are including Irish racing in this summation.
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Jul 17 13:09
I agree he didn't pick the best of times to make the comments. Not sure the piece is online but he ends:-

'This may sound like a whinge but I believe Flat racing has a huge problem. It is clearly well behind the jumps in the affection of the public and if no-one has a clue how any race is going to be run , or even where they are going to run, then punters are going to leaving in droves, if the haven't already.'

I would disagree slightly. Those closest to the horse will have a pretty good idea what is going to happen, particularly if they have had a bet. I think the punters who will be leaving in droves will be those who have the potential to win but are fed up hitting a brick wall. That will just leave the mugs which is what bookmakers and the sport wants. No winners is great news.


I make a small four figure profit each year. Not really in a position where I want to take big risks so my betting is relatively cautious. The last couple of months my betting has just mirrored a snakes and ladders board with plentiful snakes and hardly a ladder. I have tried to concentrate on the Festivals and Saturdays in the hope that a greater percentage of horses might actually be bothered about winning but then you are faced with the jocks messing up every half-hour and the various course issues.

I would say it is virtually impossible for anyone to produce a sequence of reasonably priced winners without inside information.

Agree with MJK.

I watched the replay of Lochnager's July Cup win the other day and the grass looked like a bowling green. That was 1976! Contrast that to what Newmarket looked like last week. As a punter it used to be that you would look forward to periods of settled weather but the watering can has ended that. 

In those days you could name the name the big handicaps - Lincoln, Wokingham, Hunt Cup, Stewards Cup, Ebor, Cambridgeshire and Cesarawitch - in seconds. Now there are so many they can share them out because you only need to win one pot and it's job done. Even if you swerve handicaps you can't rely on condition race results with any confidence at all. Do we really want to be in a situation where the only way to win is backing horses like Enable? Fat wallets only?

It is very difficult to prove anything (particularly with the level of incompetence shown by so many jockeys) and I do wonder how much scrutiny there actually is, but I would suspect racing is about as corrupt now as it has ever been. Sadly, it is far easier to lose than to win.   

The cheerleading by the gravy train is just nauseating.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 17 Jul 17 14:15

Jul 16, 2017 -- 6:12PM, thegiggilo wrote:


WALOFS


there will always been angles to be exploited in horse racing (you can invent your own extra angles, through tracking horses, trainers or stallions, thats just a few different approaches, there are more and better ones, and some seem to just follow certain jockeys(sds/rmoore, they all have in common the potential to increase and create more better informed betting choices, and usually require very little effort time wise but applied thinking skills, these can run alongside and in addition to your own form reading skillsPlain, sounds like racing has evolved, and tom segal has stagnated.

By:
fredlyn
When: 17 Jul 17 14:27
Just flat racing you say  - I'm amazed bookmakers have not gone unto the jockey club with their figures to let them know in no uncertain terms ,  this spot is fast disappearing up its own arse - in fact its probably gone so far up its own backside, would need a miner's helmet to find its own way out - greed & corruption have driven punters out , & now the trust has gone- after all - you don't have to have a bet on racing (stick to football) - they seem to have forgotten that - there's no liquidity in these pots to skank out of now - well has run dry. Bit like the National lottery ( their figures have imploded also) , there is a finite pot - not infinite , it has a beginning , middle & an end - which is nigh.
By:
easygold
When: 17 Jul 17 14:37
Only 4.8% out there, people starting to see now.... how long has it taken you... and all the while you think I jockey bash for the sake of it....
By:
onlooker
When: 17 Jul 17 14:38
To return some balance to the posts.

    Jul 17, 2017 -- 12:12AM, thegiggilo wrote:


    WALOFS
------------

thegiiggilo is an ALL-WEATHER fanatic - who worships his local gaff Wolverhampton.

That scenario is far from being everybody's cup of tea - and is not comparing like with like in this discussion.
By:
fredlyn
When: 17 Jul 17 14:40
In racing  - sort the skank out ,  is now the default mode switch - as I agree prize money is shyt - don't get why bookies & exchanges - have let this dry up from beneath their feet -
obviously the rake from racing is so negligible now - they have replaced that income stream elsewhere & are not fussed about it at all.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 17 Jul 17 15:09
losing punters blaming the jockeys..an unedifying thread  Sad
By:
duncan idaho
When: 17 Jul 17 15:12
thegigolo been making hay on Turf too this summer (zhui feng, heartache, harry angel etc), to return further balance
By:
roadrunner46
When: 17 Jul 17 15:14
think your being a bit disingenuous about thegiggilo only being an aw fanatic, he smashed in 660/1 double at royal ascot, he only
put up 3 horses and the other won was unlucky to be beaten into 2nd, which he then selected at 10/1 for its next race and won
harrys angel. if this tom sagal was actually doing a decent job , he might of selected some of those above winners himself.

there are far more things these days for people to spend their leisure time on, you cant think that all the cheating or bad jockeys are putting off young people betting on the sport, wouldn't even cross their minds. theres just so much more on offer these days.
By:
millhouse
When: 17 Jul 17 15:30
I really don't want to beat the same drum all the time, but you have to ask who benefits financially from racing being unpredictable, over-watered, poorly policed, overly focussed on big field races etc etc.

The answer to that question is EVERYONE IN RACING.

There's not a single sector of this sport that isn't now tied in to the off course bookmakers' profitability, and all we are seeing now is the endgame of what is little short of an annexation of a whole industry, imho...
By:
duncan idaho
When: 17 Jul 17 15:34
millhouse 17 Jul 17 15:30

I really don't want to beat the same drum all the time




he says after 14 yrs of banging away at said drum  Laugh
By:
millhouse
When: 17 Jul 17 15:35
What's your view Duncan?
By:
duncan idaho
When: 17 Jul 17 15:37
drew stumps on debating it on here about 6 yrs ago...serves absolutely no purpose
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Jul 17 15:38
A few winners from one individual provides balance? Anyone looks impressive if they just quote winners.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 17 Jul 17 15:42
if you're referring to my 15.12 post, dd, it was purely in response to onlooker's post dissing gigolo
By:
the dealer
When: 17 Jul 17 15:45
the fact is the overwhelming majority of horse race punters just dont care, rightly or wrongly. i would guess the % of that total posting on here is well below 1%. the biggest threat to the industry is when this generation is gone, there places wont be filled. football,sports and machines are taking over and horse racing will continue to suffer regardless of how bookmakers operate.
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 17 Jul 17 15:47
I've been following the sport for 50 years and betting on it for 40, and there hasn't been a moment during all those years when you wouldn't have heard all these complaints - the jockeys are sh1t, it's all bent except for the big races, the game's finished unless you're an insider etc. Believe me, there were a damn sight more rides like the one Starkey gave the Brave in the Derby than the one Swinburn gave Shahrastani in the same race. And there's nobody around today doing the sort of things Ken Payne, Albert Davison and Geoff Toft got up to around the gaffs.

The only new moan is the one about inconsistent and excessive watering, and I agree with that moan wholeheartedly. You could add elastic running rails to that list, but Ken Hussey was ranting about that in the Handicap Book 30 years ago. God knows what the poor man would have made of the latest wheeze to shaft the punters - remeasure the distances and move the starts, rendering decades of time data useless at a stroke.
By:
onlooker
When: 17 Jul 17 15:52
I will have to take your word re: posts about thegiggilo selections - that must, apparently, appear elsewhere - where I do not view - such as those comps type threads, presumably.

As,I have only ever seen him post long dissertations, waxing lyrically, about times at Wolverhampton - usually posted in the early hours - that appeared to be his beloved methodology.
By:
johnnyrant
When: 17 Jul 17 16:09
Lack of pace in races has been a boon to bookies and a nightmare for form experts for many years. I do think we see more races run now where they crawl through the early furlongs making results a lot less predictable. On Saturday we had the July Cup and the John Smiths Cup both run at a crawl, so anything held up had no chance. Same in Northumberland Plate the previous week. We saw this a lot at R.Ascot including in the Gold Cup which led to OOSG's defeat.

This means the outcome of races has a lot more to do with successful, tactical rides, like the one Doyle gave Ballet Concerto. But trying to second guess how any of these races will pan out beforehand is next to impossible.

The best horse not winning has almost become the norm so from that pov I have sympathy for Segal.
By:
McCoy Carp
When: 17 Jul 17 16:16
Just back front runners/prominent racers. Who wants to be on Frank Spencer showboater's anyway? As I tell my brother, time and time again, front runners...............
By:
screaming from beneaththewaves
When: 17 Jul 17 16:45
Do you find that out-and-out front runners are profitable, McCoy Carp? It seems to me sometimes that these get artificially shortened by in-running punters backing them pre-race, in order to lay off for a few pennies' profit after a furlong?

But I'd agree with you about horses you know are going to get a decent position up with the pace, e.g. something ridden by de Sousa,
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Jul 17 16:48
If being in front is a good place to be why are most of supposed 'top' jocks hold-up merchants. Dettori used to be noted as very good on the front end but even he more often than not chooses to sit in behind these days. It wouldn't be so bad if they could get horses to settle off the slow pace. It is pathetic watching a horse rack up an excuse after a few hundred yards.
By:
MJK
When: 17 Jul 17 16:55

Jul 17, 2017 -- 9:14AM, roadrunner46 wrote:


think your being a bit disingenuous about thegiggilo only being an aw fanatic, he smashed in 660/1 double at royal ascot, he onlyput up 3 horses and the other won was unlucky to be beaten into 2nd, which he then selected at 10/1 for its next race and wonharrys angel. if this tom sagal was actually doing a decent job , he might of selected some of those above winners himself.there are far more things these days for people to spend their leisure time on, you cant think that all the cheating or bad jockeys are putting off young people betting on the sport, wouldn't even cross their minds. theres just so much more on offer these days.


The problem is it's putting off people who have always bet on horses. When they're all go who will take their place?

By:
warhan
When: 17 Jul 17 17:08
'greed & corruption have driven punters out , & now the trust has gone- after all - you don't have to have a bet on racing (stick to football)' you gotta laughLaugh

completely agree regarding watering the tracks but as for everything else,short memories if you ask me.

as for Segal his rant sounds like a typical mug punter,he wasn't moaning about all this when he was tipping winners but now its all 'their' fault.

also regarding the lack of pace in races it might be down to so many horses being bred by shorter bred stallions which is why Coolmore have monopolised middle distance races as they seem to be the only ones breeding proper middle distance horses,just a thought

gd luck all
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jul 17 17:53
Millhouse is right, all the changes and tweaks to the system by tptb have been in an effort to make races less predictable. Plus you have the premier tracks (Ascot, York, Donny) that have added drainage systems which appear to make things even more random. Handicapping for group races can't be too far away!
By:
Deptford
When: 17 Jul 17 18:00
The watering has become farcical, the best part of the track changes from one day to the next
By:
Cider
When: 17 Jul 17 18:06
It's the perceived bias more than anything. At a big meeting like RA, in the morning you just can tell what the jockeys will do, chasing shadows half the time.
By:
differentdrum
When: 17 Jul 17 18:29
If there is a predictable bias, fine, but jocks can negate any bias, perceived or otherwise, by doing the exact opposite to what you might expect. All studying becomes a complete waste of time. You are better off using Agnes Haddock's pin.
By:
hulk23
When: 17 Jul 17 18:39
so if that's basically what seagull is saying, why would anyone buy the rp to read his tips ? 

better off buying a daily and a packet of pins
By:
Deptford
When: 17 Jul 17 18:49
I have no doubt that Ascot this year, they watered one side more than the other to try and equal it out, that was after day 1
By:
McCoy Carp
When: 17 Jul 17 19:14
screaming from beneaththewaves
17 Jul 17 16:45
Joined: 30 Jan 05
| Topic/replies: 9,914 | Blogger: screaming from beneaththewaves's blog
Do you find that out-and-out front runners are profitable, McCoy Carp? It seems to me sometimes that these get artificially shortened by in-running punters backing them pre-race, in order to lay off for a few pennies' profit after a furlong?

Not sure. What you're saying would seem to make sense. There's so much going on on the exchange, backers, layers, arbers, scalpers, traders in running punters and yet from stats produced on here by stridingedge, a horse seems to find its true sp ie it's an accurate reflection of its chance.
By:
duncan idaho
When: 17 Jul 17 19:55
I have no doubt that Ascot this year, they watered one side more than the other to try and equal it out, that was after day 1


i have no doubt that they didnt do that
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