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2017 - FANCIES from the Notebook!

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By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Apr 17 17:39
As long as one of us got something out of it, craigie Wink Well done.

He'd caught the eye for different reasons on both his first two starts for Tuite, but when I picked him last time, he turned out to be a huge drifter and the run was an absolute shocker.

Down in grade today, a lot stronger in the betting, and he's gone in.
By:
Virgin
When: 10 Apr 17 18:12
Bummer George Sad hate them ones you leave because the price isn't as juicy as lto Crazy
By:
chavman
When: 10 Apr 17 18:29
jeezus christ george,its all bummers and benders on this thread recently Shocked
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Apr 17 18:52
Blush
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 10 Apr 17 18:55
The Detainee, 1pt win @ 10-1, 5.00 Lingfield

The Detainee caught my eye on his second racecourse start at Lingfield (turf) last May, not best poitioned as the race panned out, running green, not getting a clear run from 1.5f out, before running on well to snatch 3rd; that might not have been the strongest of maidens (though the runner-up won off a mark of 74 on his handicap debut), but it was still disappointing that The Detainee didn't build on the promise shown in four more runs last season.

His trainer subsequently moved yards and he has had his string so far in 2017 in very good form (8 individual winners, 13 wins in total), so the signs were good when The Detainee reappeared over 10f at Lingfield and finished third behind improver Smiley Bagel (who has won twice since), however, his latest start over 12f at Kempton was another disappointing one (though possible he could have done with a stronger pace), never involved and beaten 11l.

He drops back slightly in grade here and maybe he'll be more effective back at Lingfield (though a steady pace would be a concern as he gives the impression he stays well), so he's given another chance, as his two standout pieces of form make a mark of 57 look a fair one.
By:
madhatters
When: 10 Apr 17 19:31
What a jo's arrse GB
Just to make chav feel at home
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 00:17
Just to correct an error in me little write-up, the reappearance run behind Smiley Bagel came over today's C/D, not 10f Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 00:20
And the latest run at Kempton was over 11f, not 12f Cry

Think it's fair to say I've failed the memory test on this one Crazy
By:
Virgin
When: 11 Apr 17 10:37
Noted The Detainee in my GG Alert 19 May pre-race as being better bred for the trip than his rivals George and post-race as a likely improver for a bigger step up than he's had so far ....

19 May 16 Ling 66-1 GOOD might be staying on late ? [3rd 50-1] watch if steps up to 14f + on breed try on good or gts ....
10 Aug 16 Kempton SLOW never involved
20 Mar 17 Kempton 13f STANDARD ? 8th 15-2


Selected today by default really as don't like the price of Powered, Put The Boot In's trainer is very quiet and should of shown something over a suitable flat trip lto and Hong Kong Joe is a little under-priced on a fair return @ Kempton after a long break just beating a similar fresh Hawaiian Freeze @ 66-1 who has yet to re-appear on these shores .....   but I really want to see a 14f ++ effort on any surface .... maybe your pace angle will help as well

[missed the yard move cheers Wink ]

Let's hope we're not both riding the same cliff-horse Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 11:28
He certainly gave the impression in the Lingfield turf run last year that he stays well, and his dam was a 12f winner, Virgin. So I suppose he'll always be vulnerable around a sharp 12f, though he obviously did run well over C/D two back.

As for pace today, Turnbury would look the obvious one and I'd be worried if he was left alone up front. He's 2 from 4 over C/D (has made all 3 times at the track), including once under today's jock, is back on a winning mark, and he hasn't shaped too badly at Wolver on his last two starts. It looks like he's been smashed in the betting too Scared
By:
Virgin
When: 11 Apr 17 12:07
You make a good case for Turnbury Laugh....
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 12:10
I'm starting to think I shudda gone a point on each and have all pace angles covered Cry
By:
madhatters
When: 11 Apr 17 12:55
Nice write ups both
I agree with V & the case Grin
By:
theonlywayforward
When: 11 Apr 17 13:41
The Detainee 5        29.4
Turnbury 8        28.8
Powered 6        28.6
Ledbury 9        27.4
Flying Author 4        27
Hong Kong Joe 1        25.6
Victor's Bet 10        24.6
Smoky Hill 2        23
Abertillery 3        17.8
Put The Boot In 7        17.6

GL .Poor race and only two winners in the field .The Detainee is  least exposed .
By:
PHS
When: 11 Apr 17 17:05

Apr 11, 2017 -- 6:55AM, madhatters wrote:


Nice write ups bothI agree with V & the case


See Some Guesses Thread for the winnerGrin

By:
Virgin
When: 11 Apr 17 17:07
Unlucky George we got that right but no collect 1.33 ir Sad

Grateful for the place point in the a/w relentlessness ... 

gl Wink
By:
madhatters
When: 11 Apr 17 17:09
Close call with both placers
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 17:09
Well done PHS.

He was the 'class' act of the race (wasn't qualified for a 0-60, but got in under the new system).

1.33 IR for The Detainee, he just lacks a gear change.
By:
PHS
When: 11 Apr 17 17:19
Thanks George. Was surprised you didn't pay it more attention as you'd backed the trainer's last winner.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 17:27
He was favourite last night at the time of posting, PHS.

And I'm not some lazy clichéd ridden pundit who says the fav is the danger!

I put the case for the horse(s) I'm selecting and that's it. Brevity is this thread's watchword and I'm not writing a spotlight for each runner! Wink

I only mentioned Turnbury because Virgin mentioned the pace.

But hey, I tipped a 10-1 poke that finished 2nd and went 1.33 IR, so it could have been worse!
By:
the dealer
When: 11 Apr 17 17:35
WD PHS on your winner on ANOTHER thread, if you have a loser tomorrow i'm sure you will be eager to jump across and post the result on here.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 17:39
No probs, dealer, we all get euphoric after tipping a winner, and PHS is just enjoying rubbing my nose it! Laugh
By:
madhatters
When: 11 Apr 17 17:40
I laid his other one
Does that help ? Grin
By:
the dealer
When: 11 Apr 17 17:41
lol Laugh  bad news on the horse looks like it has a tendon injury, will know more this week after a scan but doesnt look good SadCry
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 17:42
Sorry to hear that, dealer
By:
the dealer
When: 11 Apr 17 17:45
its the nature of the game, the good days are great, the bad days are as low as you can get. fingers crossed, he's a tough wee cookie. good luck with the reast of the tread
By:
the dealer
When: 11 Apr 17 17:45
rest of thread even
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 17:51
Cheers dealer, and I hope he pulls through.
By:
PHS
When: 11 Apr 17 18:53

Apr 11, 2017 -- 11:27AM, GEORGE.B wrote:


He was favourite last night at the time of posting, PHS.And I'm not some lazy clichéd ridden pundit who says the fav is the danger!I put the case for the horse(s) I'm selecting and that's it. Brevity is this thread's watchword and I'm not writing a spotlight for each runner! I only mentioned Turnbury because Virgin mentioned the pace.But hey, I tipped a 10-1 poke that finished 2nd and went 1.33 IR, so it could have been worse!


Genuinely didn't know it was so short last night George, so fair do's that you didn't mention it/fancy it at the price last night.

....and it was a genuine statement of surprise, nothing else.

By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 19:06
Sure he was around 11-4, PHS. He had the Lucent Dream form, plus he only got in this race because of the new rule regarding those rated 1 or 2lb above the ceiling rating, so he chance was there to be seen.

As it turned out he drifted through the day before some late money came for him.
By:
PHS
When: 11 Apr 17 19:28
Yeah, saw on Oddschecker it was 11/4 last night, after your 5:27PM post.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 21:11
Running Totals

P/L : +18.2

Win stat: 5/23 (22%)
Place stat: 11/23 (48%)

Points staked so far: 41

(Keeping an eye on how much has been lost on multiples so far: -5)
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 11 Apr 17 21:50
El Torito, 1pt win @ 11-1, 6.15 Kempton

El Torito caught the eye on his penultimate start over 7f at Lingfield, when returning from nearly six months off and making his AW debut. He was held up last in a race in which the winner made all, and he looked a bit rusty, having to be given a reminder and pushed along fully 3 furlongs out, but he did look to be travelling better in the home straight and kept on well enough without being knocked about.

He was a bit disappointing on his latest start at Chelmsford when upped in trip to one mile and grade to class 4, finishing last of the four runners, however, it's possible the steady early gallop was against him and he could make no impression in the straight, keeping on at one pace to be beaten just under 3l.

He remains unexposed on the AW and it's possible he may have a better gallop to run at this time, so at the prices he gets a tentative vote, with the promise of that AW debut not yet forgotten.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Apr 17 12:44
Jeremy Gask had actually moved stables at the start of last season. I was listening recently to a pundit who said Gask had moved stables and presumed he meant recently, so I put 2 and 2 together and got the wrong answer! Crazy

The moral of the story: never listen to pundits!

It's in the racing news that Gask is moving back to Australia at the end of this year.
By:
theonlywayforward
When: 12 Apr 17 13:01
GL George and alot of support for it .However not for me .With Camargue .Its related to several &f winners and expect this to suit.Its significantly down in class and rates and drawn well but lg anyhow.

Camargue 3        39.4
Glorious Artist 6        36
On To Victory 1        35.6
El Torito 5        32.2
Trenchard 2        31.6
Hisar 4        29.8
Island Brave 7        28.6
By:
theonlywayforward
When: 12 Apr 17 13:10
M JOHNSTON'S ALL SEASONS STATISTICS
Total for these seasons    15%   

Distance Change Records (within 35 days)

Up 201m - 400m    18%
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 12 Apr 17 18:57
No selection for Thursday

Running Totals

P/L : +17.2

Win stat: 5/24 (21%)
Place stat: 11/24 (46%)

Points staked so far: 42
By:
chavman
When: 12 Apr 17 21:35
could be your best day for a while tomorrow george
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 13 Apr 17 08:10
Sunday to be precise Chav, or Monday if you want to count a blank day.

    Date        Horse        Stake        Early Price        BFSP (-5%)        BFSP PL        ISP        Fin Pos        Early Odds p/l        BFSP p/l        ISP p/l        IR Low   
    22-Mar        Treble Strike        1        6-1        10.87        3.04        10        0        -1        -1        -1        9   
    23-Mar        Who Told Jo Jo        1        12-1        30.45        4.55        23        0        -1        -1        -1        32   
    24-Mar        Aragon Knight        2        9-1        7.11        2.19        7        0        -2        -2        -2        6.2   
    24-Mar        Elusive Approach        2        8-1        5.96        2.31        6        3        -2        -2        -2        5.6   
    24-Mar        double        1                                                -1        -1        -1           
    25-Mar        Billy's Boots        1        10-1        13.05        2.91        11        2        -1        -1        -1        4.3   
    27-Mar        Entihaa        1 EW        33-1        19.07        5.09        17        3        5.6        3.09        2.2        2.02   
    28-Mar        Cruise Tothelimit        1        6-1        7.46        3.47        7        1        6        6.46        6           
    29-Mar        Monzino        1 EW        50-1        41.48        8.59        34        0        -2        -2        -2        1.55   
    29-Mar        Sheila's Palace        2        9-2        6.77        2.13        6        0        -2        -2        -2        4   
    31-Mar        Elusive Approach        2        11-2        5.34        1.88        5        1        9.35        8.68        8           
    31-Mar        Billy's Boots        1        9-1        8.44        2.65        8        0        -1        -1        -1        8   
    01-Apr        Examiner        1 EW        14-1        22.28        4.55        15        0        -2        -2        -2        17.5   
    01-Apr        Stormy Antarctic        2        7-2        5.37        1.74        4.3        2        -2        -2        -2        1.5   
    01-Apr        Sexton Blake        1        7-1        3.41        1.63        3.5        0        -1        -1        -1        2.24   
    01-Apr        double x2        2                                                -2        -2        -2           
    02-Apr        Florenza        1 EW        20-1        38.67        7.21        26        0        -2        -2        -2        30   
    02-Apr        Bin Battuta        1        8-1        5.16        2.34        5        1        8        4.16        4           
    05-Apr        Viola Park        1        8-1        10.88        3.03        9        2        -1        -1        -1        2.96   
    07-Apr        London Grammar        1        7-1        11.7        3.28        11        1        10        10.7        10           
    07-Apr        Turasoir        1 EW        25-1        13.11        4.03        13        0        -2        -2        -2        8.2   
    07-Apr        double        1 EW                                                -2        -2        -2           
    08-Apr        Haaffa Sovereign        1 EW        20-1        19.21        5.56        15        0        -2        -2        -2        16   
    09-Apr        Rosenborg Rider        1 EW        40-1        62.58        9.27        26        0        -2        -2        -2        65   
    09-Apr        Rapid Applause        1 EW        8-1        12.4        4.04        10        1        11.25        14.44        11.25           
    11-Apr        The Detainee        1        10-1        5.21        2.14        5        2        -1        -1        -1        1.33   
    12-Apr        El Torito        1        11-1        6.19        2.85        5.5        0        -1        -1        -1        3.3   
                                                                    17.2        14.53        8.45           
By:
Knight Commander
When: 13 Apr 17 12:44
Showing a nice profit there George Happy
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