WD

Another Swiss Cross fan ?

WD George, it was only a matter of time

Cheers all again.

A couple of selections for Wednesday, one another old-timer and very much on the speculative side, while the other is of a little interest up in trip.

Running Totals

P/L : +2.5

Win stat: 1/7 (14%)
Place stat: 4/7 (57%)

Points staked so far: 11

Good man George,you are mangling prices and throwing in a nice bit of reasoning,best of luck in your selections.

I can't see any evidence of the jockey who rides Monzino having ridden at this low a weight before (9-4), so I'm hoping there ain't gonna be an overweight notice!

Good luck with Noguchi, Virgin

I'll be if Michael Chapman's other won goes and wins

Hope you took a nice profit there George-nearly 1.5 IR!

Made his move far too soon imo, particularly given Monzino's not proven at the trip, but if you back a 50s poke and it trades odds-on, you can't have too many complaints!

yes George he certainly used it up quickly today.

On Friday I'm giving another chance to a couple of horses who have already been selected previously on the thread.

Elusive Approach, 2pts win @ 11-2, 8.00 Dundalk

Elusive Approach was notebooked two starts back when she ran in a one mile maiden at Dundalk following a 4-month lay off, and under an inexperienced claimer she seemed to do plenty from a wide draw before fading inside the final furlong to finish fifth. The form received a boost when the fourth horse won a handicap on his next start.

I selected Elusive Approach on her latest start over the same C/D, and while she had her chance up the straight, I did wonder if she would have been seen to better effect forcing the pace (kept on well enough but seemed to get done for toe when the pace lifted). She drops back to 7f here with Kevin Manning taking over in the saddle and perhaps the plan will be to go foward this time from stall three if breaking well, and then it will just be a case of if or not she can hang on!

Billy's Boots, 1pt win @ 9-1, 8.15 Newcastle

Billy's Boots had caught my eye at Wolver two starts back when seemingly having something to offer inside the final furlong but was unable to find a clear passage through. I selected him on his latest start at Lingfield, where he looked a big price compared to the favourite Gnaad on the evidence of the Wolver run, and he did reverse the form but unfortunately for me he was caught wide on the home bend and failed to reel in a 'rag' who managed to make all.

He is up slightly in grade here and this does look a stronger race, but he's unexposed at 5f on Tapeta, would appear to be in good form, so a chance is taken at the odds for the minimum stake.

Thought Skinto was keeping a close eye on the score - it should be:

-0.4

Robbed myself of a point after CTTL won

Date	Horse	Stake	Early Price	BFSP (-5%)	BFSP PL	ISP	Fin Pos	Early Odds p/l	BFSP p/l	ISP p/l	IR Low
22-Mar	Treble Strike	1	6-1	10.87	3.04	10	0	-1	-1	-1	9
23-Mar	Who Told Jo Jo	1	12-1	30.45	4.55	23	0	-1	-1	-1	32
24-Mar	Aragon Knight	2	9-1	7.11	2.19	7	0	-2	-2	-2	6.2
24-Mar	Elusive Approach	2	8-1	5.96	2.31	6	3	-2	-2	-2	5.6
24-Mar	double	1						-1	-1	-1
25-Mar	Billy's Boots	1	10-1	13.05	2.91	11	2	-1	-1	-1	4.3
27-Mar	Entihaa	1 EW	33-1	19.07	5.09	17	3	5.6	3.09	2.2	2.02
28-Mar	Cruise Tothelimit	1	6-1	7.46	3.47	7	1	6	6.46	6
29-Mar	Monzino	1 EW	50-1	41.48	8.59	34	0	-2	-2	-2	1.55
29-Mar	Sheila's Palace	2	9-2	6.77		6	0	-2	-2	-2	4
								-0.4

Running Totals

P/L : +6.95

Win stat: 2/11 (18%)
Place stat: 5/11 (45%)

Points staked so far: 19

wd GERGE

Well done George and a 2pter to boot!

Stormy Antarctic, 1 pt win @ 7-2, 3.00 Doncaster

Stormy Antarctic is selected in the hope the ground retains enough moisture and / or the forecast showers materialise. He was a very impressive winner of the Craven Stakes on his reappearance last season (albeit the race was run in atrocious conditions and those behind possibly could have done more to boost the form), so he can clearly go well fresh; and although he failed to make an impact in the 2000 Guineas, he did go on to post a solid effort when runner-up in the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat, before not being disgraced on the figures in the Jacques Le Marois behind Ribchester.

According to his trainer on the stable's website, the plan is a race in Hong Kong in early May if he wins here, so hopefully fitness will not be an issue, and as this drop in class does look an easier assignment for him, hopefully he can get his head back in front.

Examiner, 1pt EW @ 14-1, 2.35 Doncaster

Examiner failed to win on the AW during the winter but he shaped well on all three starts, probably doing well to reach his finishing position on each occasion given those races didn't set up for how his was ridden from off the pace, including last time when finishing fourth behind Nimr in the "Lincoln Trial" at Wolverhampton.

Nimr is progressive and may well confirm the form, but he has to prove he's up to this mark on turf, whereas we know Examiner is equally as effective on turf, being only 1lb higher than winning at Epsom last summer, and we know he can run well in a race of this nature, having finished a close-up third (and first in his group) in the 2015 Cambridgeshire.

It's obviously very competitive and cases can be made for plenty, but at 14-1 Examiner makes a little EW appeal, with race fitness on his side and a tongue tie tried for the first time.

Sexton Blake, 1pt win @ 7-1, 5.45 Chelmsford

Sexton Blake was notebooked back in September at Wolverhampton when he was an obvious eyecatcher, seemingly having something to offer but not getting much luck in the run; he hasn't really confirmed the impression that he could be well handicapped on the AW in his four starts since (though he did run ok at Kempton in November), while leaving the impression he may not be the most straightforward either.

His latest run following a three month break came in a Lingfield claimer on disadvantageous terms, when he wasn't beaten far in a bunch finish. He's stepping up to a mile here so has stamina to prove, but pedigree and run style suggest it shouldn't be an issue. Dane O'Neill is a rare booking for the yard (0 - 2 last 5 seasons).

Further Correction (it's going well this morning innit? ), 6-1 for the final selection. The 7s had gone by the time I'd finished typing

Ta Virgin.

As it looks like the ground should be OK for Stormy Antarctic, I'm going to increase the stake to 2pts

So just to summarise and clarify today's selections:

3.00 Don: Stormy Antarctic, 2pts win @ 7-2

2.35 Don: Examiner, 1pt EW @ 14-1

5.45 Chelms: Sexton Blake, 1pt win @ 6-1

Also 1pt win double on Stormy Antarctic and Sexton Blake

Total staked: 6 points

Good luck to us both, saddo

I'd be worried now about Stormy Antarctic's chance after seeing that first race, cuz for me Tupi is deffo better on a sound surface, while Mobsta, who is deffo better with juice in the ground, has been stuffed.

SA does have form on a decent surface, but confidence in his chance has been dimmed, but who knows! If they're planning on taking him to Hong Kong, presumably he'll need to be able to handle a decent surface.