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Gaze733
21 Mar 17 17:50
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Date Joined: 15 Mar 12
| Topic/replies: 6,447 | Blogger: Gaze733's blog
Something is crooked. RP forecasted him as a 16/1 yet he started as 5/1 and won by by 3.75 lengths. I'm starting to notice a pattern. Horses which look like godawful value yet start at a suspiciously low price tend to win a lot.

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Replies: 167
By:
Gaze733
When: 21 Mar 17 17:53
Actually he was forecaasted as 8/1 but still. Bottom top speed in a 7f sprint and he won so easily.
By:
s.kenbo
When: 21 Mar 17 17:55
The owner's a poster on here. He might have words with you soon!
By:
EL11
When: 21 Mar 17 18:06
Fibresand debut. Impossible to know what to expect.
By:
OVERSEAS
When: 21 Mar 17 18:07
Hugh Taylor, Connections know the time of day, 1st time of surface which he obviously loved after the event, trainer has shed load of winners at the track, and the application of money...
By:
ProSniper
When: 21 Mar 17 18:08
Yes, let's get some answers from the owner. We Know how genuine and honest those people are..

Trainers are forever scheming, cheating and plotting to stick their big fat cheating finger up @ form lines.
By:
nijinsky01
When: 21 Mar 17 18:12
On form had every chance who takes notice of the early prices and agree didn't know how would act on that serface but if did,every chance and no I didn't back it
By:
ihal essex
When: 21 Mar 17 18:12
Has the owner got some journalistic connection? If so would explain a lot!
By:
Gaze733
When: 21 Mar 17 18:13
Since I noticed the pattern I tracked two horses fitting the profile in 3 days.

7:15 Wolverhampton    Weeloof
2:30 Ffos Las     Monbeg Aquadude

Both won. I didn't lay them because I knew the lay price was too good to be true. Now Supersta was the third winner.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 18:18
Hi, I am one of the co owners of the horse. He had loads of decent form that gave him a strong chance of winning today IF he took to the surface. We weren't totally sure whether he would or not (largely because we were concerned about him handling the kickback) and I would be pretty sure that none of the owners will have had large bets on the horse today.
One thing to bear in mind is that Mick Appleby has a very good strike rate at Southwell and his runners first time on the surface are generally in the market. Also ridden by SDS, again a rider who is rightly popular with the punting population as a whole.
By:
sparrow
When: 21 Mar 17 18:20
Doesn't the sire Pivotal get plenty of winners at Southwell?
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 18:21
Yes, a valid point.
By:
OVERSEAS
When: 21 Mar 17 18:23
nice prize for a Tuesday to win...
By:
Gaze733
When: 21 Mar 17 18:25
@Barton Bank Thanks for the insight.
@sparrow I don't think enough punters look at sire stats to affect the price. I certainly don't.
By:
Andrew in Sweden
When: 21 Mar 17 18:26
Well done Barton Bank, won well.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 18:28
Aye cheers folks,  his main target was the Lincoln Trial but it was a massively messy race and he got stuck behind horses in a race where the leaders didn't go as hard as we were hoping for (a recurring and frustrating theme for us with this horse this winter). He has tended to stop when he has been in front early in his races which was a possible worry today but you can't execute his usual tactics at Southwell easly hence why any bets from the owners will have been smallish.
By:
BlazingWalker
When: 21 Mar 17 18:33
Hugh Taylor has had 19 bets at Southwell this year resulting in one 15/8 winner.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 18:33
Did he tip anything in that race?
By:
stridingedge
When: 21 Mar 17 18:33
wd Barton nice winner
By:
sparrow
When: 21 Mar 17 18:35
Opens up a few more options for you, barton.
By:
BlazingWalker
When: 21 Mar 17 18:35
War Dept 425 last i think.
By:
roadrunner46
When: 21 Mar 17 18:35
supersta had been getting backed for its 4/5 races it had run in. only a matter of time before it won sooner or later
By:
s.kenbo
When: 21 Mar 17 18:42
I've backed it the last four or five runs! Didn't even look at todays race. Grin
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 18:44
Not as many options as you would think! There aren't many races you can run a horse with a rating in the high 90s in at Southwell.
By:
sparrow
When: 21 Mar 17 18:48
Not many barton, but the odd one now and again.
By:
rmccarthy16
When: 21 Mar 17 18:50
BB, how do you not know that mick gallops his runners round southwell to check if they handle the track?
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 18:52
Of course I know that. Galloping them in twos (as Mick normally does) does not tell you whether they will handle the kickback in a competitive race though. Particularly when they have a tendency to miss the break.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 18:52
Mithqaal for example had worked extremely well on the surface before he ran on it for the first time.
By:
knot in wood
When: 21 Mar 17 18:53
taylor put up war department.

well done
By:
rmccarthy16
When: 21 Mar 17 18:55
it certainly tells you all you need to know
By:
duncan idaho
When: 21 Mar 17 18:56
what does?
By:
Micky Finn
When: 21 Mar 17 19:01
My personal view is that yes while it was an unknown on the surface but the last 2 runs behind Suzies Connossieur & Nimr were decent form, I was especially taken with Nimr's last run and think there will be more winners to come from that race.  I also was not that keen on the 2 that were shorter in the betting, BB, Supersta looks a nice horse to me & I wish you all the luck in the world with it.ExcitedExcitedExcited
By:
ihal essex
When: 21 Mar 17 19:04
Barton Bank: congratulations on today's coup, can you confirm that Supersta owners' club contains one or more members of the media?

PS: I regard the racing media apologists as one of the main reasons why corruption flourishes to the extent it does!
By:
ProSniper
When: 21 Mar 17 19:08
In the loop: see a nice clean dance floor.

Out the loop: see the dance floor covered in shyte.
By:
flukes
When: 21 Mar 17 19:09
Supersta hosed in today and agree that Nimr also looks one to follow from the Lincoln trial
By:
ashleigh
When: 21 Mar 17 19:12
the dixon brothers in the syndicate that own supersta. not sure if ratpack is in as well.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 19:12
Ihal, I wouldn't use the word "coup" really. He certainly wasn't laid out for the race in any shape of form. Yes, I can't confir, the owners include members of the media. I am not a member of the media myself.
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 19:13
Possibility the horse will attempt to win the race in Sweden that we tried (and failed) to win with Pearl Nation a few years ago.
By:
ihal essex
When: 21 Mar 17 19:31
BB: enjoy the post-race celebrations, I'm sure your ratpack gravy slurping co-owners will, just like they did on the Willie Mullins pre Cheltenham stable visit when the good ol' BBC racing guru Cornelius had it off with the morning-price rag backed off the board, hosed in!
Boy what a party that was - pity the usually avuncular Lysaght failed to mention the impending coup to the listeners I.e the licence payers who pay the slob his ill-earned wages!!
By:
Barton Bank
When: 21 Mar 17 19:39
Can't really see the relevance of those comments.
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