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After a profitable and largely consistent 2016 i've been on the most horrendous losing run since around 27th Dec 16. Im doing what i always do using a combo of RP figures and stats that i compile consistently myself. Im fine with losing runs normally as i know in time things will come right but never experienced anything like this. Starting to think theres something else wrong. I bet exclusively on Nov Hrds. Could it just be ground conditions? Or something else? Any ideas?
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Doesn't seem like a long time to start getting worried does it Bighand 
how many bets, what prices ?
how many bets, what prices ?
assuming obviously your odds have been similar to the normal long run.
lamp post
roger Federer
( I don't think I have quite got the hang of this yet delta )
roger Federer
( I don't think I have quite got the hang of this yet delta )
My strike rate is high as i concentrate on the horses below 10.0. Often backing 2 in a race. I prefer betting like this as generally losing runs are short. Im generally making an even money bet and win more races than i lose. Obviously my POT is low, but my stake is high and i have consistently made a study profit in the past.
sorry i am fatigued and am going soon
you have about 60 losers around Evens in a row
you have about 60 losers around Evens in a row
think my head will actually explode if that's the case
bighand, keep doing what you do imo
we all have good and bad runs .
we all have good and bad runs .
Bighand 23 Jan 17 20:50
I feel like some of you aren't taking this seriously
who can blame us -
forumites beginning with Big... have a history on hear
I feel like some of you aren't taking this seriously
who can blame us -
forumites beginning with Big... have a history on hear
i could just reverse what do, might have stumbled on the most amazing system
sorry you posted before me 
For me that's just one of them bad runs, i doubt anything has changed, the ground is what you'd expect for time of year.
I hope it comes good for you
there's always martin gale if all else fails
For me that's just one of them bad runs, i doubt anything has changed, the ground is what you'd expect for time of year.
I hope it comes good for you
there's always martin gale if all else fails
Maybe its just more outsiders winning in poor ground, wish i had the stats on that
I think you may have the answer BH. The weathers been drier than usual this winter so perhaps stop or cut your stakes until serious rain appears (as it must). On the basis that were due a lot of rain I think theres value in backing soft ground performers who havent enjoyed the unseasonal ground for Cheltenham.
Surely less rain, better ground would make results more consistent, as in the summer
Perhaps but my take has always been that most NH horses have been bred for softer ground.
Theres a lot of uneducated punters out there and horses with winning figures (no matter the ground) by there names will always win out with them.
I just had a look at favs in these races evens or less from nov-feb inclusive
a return of about 4% on good or faster and a loss of about -3.6% backing at BFSP
obviously the sample size of the former is much smaller but the difference in conditions is what#s being cited as difference in results in the opposite direction.
a return of about 4% on good or faster and a loss of about -3.6% backing at BFSP
obviously the sample size of the former is much smaller but the difference in conditions is what#s being cited as difference in results in the opposite direction.
All i can say for sure is that i was far more consistent in the summer
and a loss of about -3.6% backing at BFSP
apologies should have been on ground softer than good
apologies should have been on ground softer than good
Also seems to me (and i have no stats to back this up), that well backed horses seem to be winning everything atm, even more than normal
your stats indicate what I'm saying re the ground but not in a dramatic way
no those stats dispel your idea that the ground has been a probable issue in your poor run
Thought shorter horses had been winning more on good ground?
I'm very betfair fatigued have to go in a mminute
I thought the gist here was that the ground has been drier this winter so results may have been different?
I thought the gist here was that the ground has been drier this winter so results may have been different?
If the ground has been drier than often then you wouldn't have expected a worse year based on previous winters with drier ground?
I thought you were trying to say you thought your bad run was based cos the ground had been faster this time of the year as opposed to the norm, apologies if that's not the case.
I'd be almost certain the ground would have no bearing on your bad run in the grand scheme of things, it rarely is.
I'd be almost certain the ground would have no bearing on your bad run in the grand scheme of things, it rarely is.
That was suggested by Lordnoise. Im suggesting the poor ground has led to more outsiders winning and as I'm betting with stats on side I'm generally backing shorter horses.
Basically i reckon my stats become less relevant in soft ground
oh ok the opposite
well the ground hasn't been any more or less than you'd expect this time of the year
you aren't going to see anything significant with outsiders based on the ground, it really doesn't work out like that.
well the ground hasn't been any more or less than you'd expect this time of the year
you aren't going to see anything significant with outsiders based on the ground, it really doesn't work out like that.
When i get a bit of time I'll have a look at this for you and post some findings
too knackered now, brain has gone and eyeballs are going square after a long day on here.
Catch you again Bighand
too knackered now, brain has gone and eyeballs are going square after a long day on here.
Catch you again Bighand
Maybe the price of the second or third favs are whats letting BHs under 8/1 approach down. I obviously don't know but lack of rain is the one factor I can think of that makes this year different from last.
I accept theres been less rain but the ground is still softer than most of the rest of the year when i was doing much better
My bets are broadly based on a combination of the horses previous form and strength its trainer
.... based on a lot of previous stats from that trainer so i know what to expect from their horses
Albert Einstein once said that if you stand at the back door of your house and wait for an elephant to appear in time it will.
I guess its just your time for the elephant .but the good news is that the elephant will go away,but albert also said history has a habit of repeating itself ,so be careful next January in case the elephant returns and stays longer
I guess its just your time for the elephant .but the good news is that the elephant will go away,but albert also said history has a habit of repeating itself ,so be careful next January in case the elephant returns and stays longer
Probably spot on, got too go now the misses wants too watch Walking Dead. Thanks for your posts
the more pertinent issue could be why come on the forum after 12 years
so were talkin a 26 day losing run after 12 years of success
I get your point but I was betting only occasionally for fun for a long time. Taken it seriously last 2 years when i realised i was doing alright. Is it ok if i use your forum?
i was more questioning your motive after having no need to use the forum for so long to expect basic ground/form answers to correct your system
.... Is it ok if i use your forum?
tell him to mind his own fecking business.
tell him to mind his own fecking business.
Quick scan of this thread appears to suggest the lad is backing elephants.
Stop doing that, would be my advice.
Stop doing that, would be my advice.
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