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After a profitable and largely consistent 2016 i've been on the most horrendous losing run since around 27th Dec 16. Im doing what i always do using a combo of RP figures and stats that i compile consistently myself. Im fine with losing runs normally as i know in time things will come right but never experienced anything like this. Starting to think theres something else wrong. I bet exclusively on Nov Hrds. Could it just be ground conditions? Or something else? Any ideas?
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Ben Poste (3)
Hayley Moore |
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lamp post
ilkley moor |
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Doesn't seem like a long time to start getting worried does it Bighand
 how many bets, what prices ? |
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About 60. Various prices but rarely anything over 8.0
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what's your normal strike rate Bighand?
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assuming obviously your odds have been similar to the normal long run.
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lamp post
roger Federer ( I don't think I have quite got the hang of this yet delta ) |
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huffington post
ryan moore  |
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rcing
Charlie Poste Les Jefford |
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My strike rate is high as i concentrate on the horses below 10.0. Often backing 2 in a race. I prefer betting like this as generally losing runs are short. Im generally making an even money bet and win more races than i lose. Obviously my POT is low, but my stake is high and i have consistently made a study profit in the past.
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post man pat
morello cherry |
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sorry i am fatigued and am going soon
you have about 60 losers around Evens in a row |
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I feel like some of you aren't taking this seriously
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No, 29 losers in first 40 bets, average around evens
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think my head will actually explode if that's the case
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bighand, keep doing what you do imo
we all have good and bad runs . |
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Bighand 23 Jan 17 20:50
I feel like some of you aren't taking this seriously who can blame us - forumites beginning with Big... have a history on hear |
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i could just reverse what do, might have stumbled on the most amazing system
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sorry you posted before me
 For me that's just one of them bad runs, i doubt anything has changed, the ground is what you'd expect for time of year. I hope it comes good for you  there's always martin gale if all else fails |
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Maybe its just more outsiders winning in poor ground, wish i had the stats on that
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Ben Poste (3)
Martin Gayle (7) ? |
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How do i play this game?
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It won't be that Bighand
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ie the ground
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ken dodd
michael schumacher easy innit |
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why not the ground?
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I think you may have the answer BH. The weathers been drier than usual this winter so perhaps stop or cut your stakes until serious rain appears (as it must). On the basis that were due a lot of rain I think theres value in backing soft ground performers who havent enjoyed the unseasonal ground for Cheltenham.
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Surely less rain, better ground would make results more consistent, as in the summer
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Perhaps but my take has always been that most NH horses have been bred for softer ground.
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and the market doesn't factor this in?
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Theres a lot of uneducated punters out there and horses with winning figures (no matter the ground) by there names will always win out with them.
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I just had a look at favs in these races evens or less from nov-feb inclusive
a return of about 4% on good or faster and a loss of about -3.6% backing at BFSP obviously the sample size of the former is much smaller but the difference in conditions is what#s being cited as difference in results in the opposite direction. |
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All i can say for sure is that i was far more consistent in the summer
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and a loss of about -3.6% backing at BFSP
apologies should have been on ground softer than good |
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Also seems to me (and i have no stats to back this up), that well backed horses seem to be winning everything atm, even more than normal
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your stats indicate what I'm saying re the ground but not in a dramatic way
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