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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook

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Replies: 1,155
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 16 11:53
Good luck mackies, I'm liking the blinkers angle for Soul Brother.

Good luck with Lincoln, robster. When I saw the decs on Thursday I thought he'd definitely be my pick, but clearly he wasn't missed by many at Haydock! That was his first run since being gelded and he clearly hasn't gone backwards for it as he looked in really good nick.
A couple of niggly minuses I'd suggest are that it looked an advantage to be held up in that race, so he might have been flattered to an extent; also, although he's been dropped by the handicapper, if you think Pilley's 5lb claim is money for old rope, then he's effectively 3lb higher, but as you counter in your excellent write up, his earlier form still makes him look well handicapped, and maybe Bishop just suits the horse better.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 16 11:56
It's the last day of the month, so I'm gunna be a bit reckless and put up another 2 picks!

Onorina, 1.45 Goodwood, 1pt EW @ 14-1

I liked this filly last season when she won at Lingfield (turf), looking raw but demonstrating a good way of going and nicely on top at the finish, pulling well clear with the second; she was a bit disappointing on her next start, but then showed at Kempton on her last run of 2015 that her new mark wasn't beyond her, doing well to finish where did considering she could have done with a stronger pace.

I selected her on her reappearance at Bath and she ran just OK to be fourth, but she was entitled to need the run and the filthy conditions that evening meant fitness would have been at a premium (race time 16 secs above standard).

Onorina looks well worth a try at this 14f trip on the evidence to date, and in the hope she has gone forward for her reappearance, is given another chance at a double figure price.

Sagaciously, 2.15 Goodwood, 1pt EW @ 40-1

This is a bit speculative given the adjusted figures give her plenty to find, but I wouldn't be surprised if she out-ran market expectations.

She made a pleasing return against male opposition over 12f at Lingfield (AW), racing a bit keenly but seeing her race out really well to close down on Top Tug, who had some decent handicap form from last year and who evidently hadn't gone backwards for the switch to Alan King's yard.

Some of Sagaciously's earlier form behind the likes of Irish Rookie and Moonrise Landing doesn't read too badly, and given the excellent start her stable has made to the season, it could just be she's returned a stronger and better filly.
By:
Lee Ho Fooks
When: 30 Apr 16 14:48
Don't put it all back MackiesCool
By:
mackies-fc
When: 30 Apr 16 14:50
Feel like I was due that one tbh!
By:
stridingedge
When: 30 Apr 16 14:52
VWD mackies on kommander Cool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 16 14:57
Sensational stuff, mackies, VWD!
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 Apr 16 16:08
vwd Mackies top stuffGrinCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 16 17:45
Tremendous tipstering mackies, hope you did the Trixie!
By:
stridingedge
When: 30 Apr 16 17:48
Yes a shorty this time only around 16.0 on here Grin

very well played today mackies!
By:
mackies-fc
When: 30 Apr 16 17:49
Even better George. Had a Yankee with Goldenfield at Goodwood.

Thanks everyone. Nice when they go in!
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 30 Apr 16 18:09
Mackies just remembered Soul Brother superb stuff pleased you backed them all together HappyCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 16 19:55
Apologies for Le Rock, that was x-rated. That'll teach me for selecting horses from stables who are struggling for winners Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 16 21:25
April Profit / Loss & Results / Summary

It could have gone better after a promising start, but a profit's a profit, though it was a struggle at BFSP (after 5% commission) and Industry SP.

Here's hoping for better in May...


Early odds: +21.89
BFSP (after 5% commission): +1.85
ISP: -7.73

    Date        Horse        Stake        Early Price        BFSP (-5%)        BFSP PL        ISP        Fin Pos        Early Odds p/l        BFSP p/l        ISP p/l   
    1st Apr        Le Manege Enchante        1 win        9        4.66        2.34        5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    1st Apr        Christy's Call        1ew        17        22.85        6.32        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    2nd Apr        Mobsta        1ew        15        8.84        2.84        9        1        16.8        9.68        9.6   
    3rd Apr        Properus        1ew        13        19.79        3.76        15        0        -2        -2        -2   
    3rd Apr        Zhukova        1ew        17        8.19        3.3        7        1        20        9.49        7.5   
    4th Apr        Tessellate        1 win        6        4.95        2.58        5        2        -1        -1        -1   
    5th Apr        Lopes Dancer        1 win        4.33        5.75        2.42        6        2        -1        -1        -1   
    6th Apr        Angie's Girl        1 win        6        5.94        2.25        5.5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    7th Apr        Gold Club        1 win        12        13.35        3.12        11        2        -1        -1        -1   
    7th Apr        Matilda's Gleam        1 win        17        11.26        4.05        11        0        -1        -1        -1   
    8th Apr        Subtle Knife        1ew        *10pR4   13        9.92        2.93        10        2        1.16        0.93        0.8   
    8th Apr        Delagoa Bay        1ew        17        17        5.04        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    9th Apr        Cosmic Tigress        1win        7        9.17        3.95        8.5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    10th Apr        Radiantly        1ew        11        12.4        3.19        10        0        -2        -2        -2   
    11th Apr        Refulgence        1win        6        16.68        3.8        11        0        -1        -1        -1   
    11th Apr        Betsalottie        1win        10        5.24        2.05        5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    11th Apr        Wharane        1win        7        8.9        2.85        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    12th Apr        Bertiewhittle        1ew        10p R4    26        21.9        5.37        17        2        4.63        3.37        3   
    12th Apr        Only Mine        1ew        15        11.17        3.04        11        0        -2        -2        -2   
    13th Apr        Invincible Wish        1ew        26        20.44        6.1        15        0        -2        -2        -2   
    14th Apr        Dinneratmidnight        1ew        26        21.76        5.04        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    14th Apr        Born To Finish        1ew        10p R4    15        5        1.65        4.5        2        2.15        -0.35        -0.13   
    15th Apr        Noor Al Haya        1ew        15        15.73        4.51        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    15th Apr        Debit        1ew        17        34.25        6.31        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    15th Apr        Onerina        1win        8        9.55        3.33        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    15th Apr        Jazz Ranger        1ew        15        38.39        6.23        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    16th Apr        Dreese        1ew        26        34.69        8.25        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    16th Apr        Straduff        1ew        12        13.72        4.32        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    16th Apr        La Manege Enchante        1ew        15        13        3.04        11        0        -2        -2        -2   
    16th Apr        Invincible Wish        1ew        13        15.75        4.52        15        2        2.5        2.52        2.5   
    17th Apr        Fairy Flute        1ew        21        45.65        8.41        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th Apr        Mega fortune        1ew        26        21.8        5.28        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th Apr        Gentil J        1ew        15        13.63        4.14        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    18th Apr        Englishman        1win        8        9.17        2.75        8        1        7        8.17        7   
    19th Apr        Joaldo        1win        13        19.05        5.56        15        0        -1        -1        -1   
    19th Apr        Vivo Per Lei        1ew        34        32.35        7.46        21        3        7.25        5.46        4   
    20th Apr        Applejack Lad        1win        13        19.51        5.22        17        2        -1        -1        -1   
    20th Apr        Antonio Joli        1win        15        24.53        5.57        17        0        -1        -1        -1   
    20th Apr        Vecheka        1win        15        10.03        3.51        10        0        -1        -1        -1   
    21st Apr        Carnageo        1win        8.5        7.67        3.04        8        0        -1        -1        -1   
    21st Apr        Dunquin        1win        10        8.92        3        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    21st Apr        Briardale        1ew        29        17.1        4.27        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd Apr        Midhmaar        1ew        17        16.71        3.78        17        2        2.2        1.78        2.2   
    22nd Apr        Pleasure Dome        1ew        17        14.26        3.85        11        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd Apr        Altarsheed        1ew        23        37.59        7.39        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd Apr        Ban Shoof        1win        11        16.04        4.58        15        0        -1        -1        -1   
    23rd Apr        Katskill Nap        1ew        34        22.85        4.78        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    23rd Apr        Auspicion        1ew        17        28.55        7.37        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    24th Apr        Allfredandnobell        1ew        13        9.04        3.05        9        0        -2        -2        -2   
    24th Apr        Lady Poppy        1win        35p R4      9        3.89        1.55        4.5        1        5.2        2.89        2.8   
    24th Apr        Blistering dancer        1ew        10p R4    21        25.58        4.76        21        1        22.5        28.34        22.5   
    25th Apr        Lightning Spree        1win        10        9.36        3.06        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    27th Apr        Titus Secret        1ew        21        15.63        3.39        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    29th Apr        Renewing        1ew        13        8.15        2.44        7        0        -2        -2        -2   
    30th Apr        Onorina        1ew        15        16.08        3.57        15        2        2.5        1.57        2.5   
    30th Apr        Sagaciously        1ew        41        43.75        8.3        34        0        -2        -2        -2   
    30th Apr        Joeys Destiny        1ew        23        39.95        6.44        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    30th Apr        Le Rock        1w        13        13.92        3.67        11        0        -1        -1        -1   
                                                                    21.89        1.85        -7.73   
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 30 Apr 16 22:54
Lightning Spree, 5.05 Hamilton, 1pt win @ 12-1

I selected Lightning Spree when he ran over 1 mile at Ayr last Monday on the basis he'd caught my eye over that C/D last season when not getting any luck in running, and it was possible to excuse the defeats since, plus his mark has dropped a few pounds.

An issue the horse has had is that he tends to race with the choke out and that was evident again on Monday, though that wasn't what beat him because after the line he seemed to have loads of running left in him, so it's likely he could have done with a stronger pace or he needs a stiffer test.

His best run of last season (on RPRs) came at Hamilton, and although he's back up in grade here, he's given another chance at a double figure price, in the hope that wearing a hood for the first time will help him settle better and see him more competitive at the business end.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 May 16 11:50
Mega Fortune, 5.10 Sligo, 1pt win @ 16-1

This is another that was selected on this thread the last time he ran; he'd caught my eye on his third run for a mark at Dundalk last season, shaping well despite not being given a hard time inside the final furlong, and also as a physical specimen as he appears a sizable, good looking sort.

He made his handicap and seasonal debut at Navan two weeks ago on a day when being on or close to the pace appeared a distinct advantage, and in the circumstances I thought he shaped OK having been held up off the pace, as he was going on well at the finish; though that said he has ground to make up on a couple of these who were ahead of him that day and reoppose here.

Connections decided to fit cheekpieces at Navan and in the race I could see why, as he didn't look fully focused, but I'd be inclined to put it down to inexperience for now.
I'm confident there is going to be better to come from this horse at some point, though whether it will be today I'm not sure as I'd have concerns about the suitability of this tight track, but at decent odds I'm going to take a chance, with that reappearance run behind him.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 May 16 14:53
Even Song, 1pt win @ 5-1, 4.50 Newmarket

I've been sucked into this one by the price, but the market weakness has got me worried!

Half-sister to  Simple Verse who shaped well on her debut over 7f at Dundalk before impressing with the manner in which she won her maiden at Leopardstown over 1m, having had quite a wide trip (unlike the second and third who had raced round the inner from low draws) and done a lot of running just to reach the leaders, before powering clear inside the final furlong.

It's her first run of the season and may not be at fever pitch, and it remains to be seen how she copes with drying conditions on turf, but she looks sure to improve again for racing over further this season, and a chance is taken despite the ominous market weakness, for the minimum stake.
By:
saddo
When: 01 May 16 14:57
Gl George, never watch Oirish racing. Got Mix and Mingle for a place in the big un today.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 May 16 15:16
I might be wishing I hadn't after today! Wink

Good luck with M & M, saddo
By:
go-all-in
When: 01 May 16 17:14
Very well done George. Shame about the other two, both ran decent races.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 01 May 16 17:19
vwd George
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 May 16 17:21
Cheers.

Not happy at all with the ride on Lightning Spree, for all I appreciate he had to settle the horse. There comes a point when you have to ask for an effort in good time and imo he waited too long. When he rode the horse on Monday it was pulling his arms out after the line, it was going to stay.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 01 May 16 17:32
George I've just noticed the price of Mega Fortune that is one hell of a selection,I'm not with it today for some reason I had 6/1 in my head but I never look at the Irish stuff.I think you should look more during the week you've had acouple of very good winners over there GrinWink
By:
mackies-fc
When: 01 May 16 19:19
Great stuff George. Could have been a double but for the waiting tactics.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 May 16 19:30
I always look at the Irish racing, FL, I'm sure there'll be plenty more selections for over the sea.

Cheers mackies. Even Song was a bit of an eyecatcher too, for all she wouldn't have beaten the winner on the day, but if they meet again...
By:
stewarts rise
When: 01 May 16 19:37
Lovely winner George, knew i'd seen it somewhere earlier! Presume the quicker ground stopped you from following up on Englishman?
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 01 May 16 20:13
I didn't consider him on the ground tbh, stewarts. The way he's tanking through his races I'd be tempted to try him back at 5f on ground with juice in it, though he's not doing too badly over 6f at the moment!

The only one I've missed on this thread who subsequently won after I'd selected him was Dinneratmidnight. I picked him over 5f at Ripon despite concerns about the trip, and when they stepped him up to 6f at Ponte, I passed on account of the wide draw Crazy
By:
mackies-fc
When: 01 May 16 21:10
I think he'd be even better at 5 off a gallop George. It's a sure sign of his wellbeing the way he's won the last two under differing conditions. Hopefully the ground doesn't go against him.
By:
Lee Ho Fooks
When: 02 May 16 10:24
vwd Geoge, I see it just scraped home
By:
saddo
When: 02 May 16 10:29
Just seen this, good pick at good odds George.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 May 16 11:33
Thanks, maybe I should just stick to the Irish racing Silly though having just looked at the Curragh handicaps...Scared
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 May 16 11:39
Todays two selections are on the speculative side as I have concerns about trip / fitness, but at the odds I'm going to throw caution to the wind! Scared

Darrell Rivers, 1.40 Windsor, 1pt EW @ 16-1

Darrell Rivers is a 12 race maiden, but has shown enough to suggest she should be up to winning races; she has been in the notebook since last May when having her first run on turf over 6f at Lingfield, finding plenty of trouble that day before not being knocked about once it was clear her winning chance had gone and seemingly finishing with plenty left in the tank.

It's fair to say Darrell Rivers had her chances subsequently without managing to win, but she finished close up on a few occasions, doing enough to suggest a mark in the low 60s is a feasible one.

The concerns today are she's returning from a break and whether an easy 6f is on the sharp side for her as she was being raced over 8.5f on her last two starts of 2015, but the earlier form had suggested she is capable of being effective at the trip.

Chorus of Lies, 3.30 Beverley, 1pt EW @ 33-1

Chorus Of Lies failed to win for Godolphin, but showed enough to suggest he should be up to winning races; he was sold cheaply to Tracy Waggott and three starts for his current handler haven't been without hope, particularly on the first occasion last October over 14f at Redcar when shaping better than the bare result, having raced keenly before failing to secure a clear run.

He could do with the rain arriving as the drop back to 10f is a definite concern, but the trip looks worth a go given he has been taking a grip in his races, and with his mark having dropped 7lb from his opening one, a chance is taken at rewarding odds.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 02 May 16 14:22
Briardale, 1pt win @ 11-1, 3.30 Beverley

I've decided to have a saver in that 3.30 on Briardale, who I selected on this thread at a big price the last time he ran over C/D, and having looked like he had a winning chance going into the final furlong, he didn't even place, much to my chagrin, though he was only beaten a little over a length in fourth.

The story with this one was that he won a weak maiden over C/D last season and probably went handicapping subsequently off an inflated mark, but despite some heavy defeats, I didn't think the run last backend at Redcar was without hope.

He can be keen, which is a concern given the ground may be softening at Beverley, but he does seem to handle some cut, and as he would appear to like it at the track, a chance is taken at a double figure price, for all he has a bit of work to do to turn it around with Jacbequick, who might have been unfortunate when they met last time, but he did seem to have the kinder trip (though that is entirely possible again given their draws).
By:
go-all-in
When: 02 May 16 20:07
Titus Secret out again tomorrow, this time on turf and stepped up to 7f. If he can manage to jump out of the gates at the same time as the rest of them, the 14/1 looks too big to me.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 00:28
Good luck go-all-in and to Fatlad too, with TS. It's anyone's guess how he'll handle Brighton (and grass), but if he applies himself, imo he clearly looks up to winning something like this off his basement mark.
By:
saddo
When: 03 May 16 00:37
GB, did you start a fred about a kelly ride recently?
By:
nocturnal
When: 03 May 16 00:41
Could be a good call G-A-I,looks a big framed horse who may well benefit from the step up,whether this track will suit,time will tell.

The other horse worth a second glance is the top one,been on the radar for a while,phelan has managed to drop him a stone in ten months,his best bits of form have been with a little cut,bit of rain yesterday,ground should be ok.The claim brings him down to 53,hoping he has the racing plates on tomorrow Wink,he also runs one in the 3-55, had a saver on,low grade stuff as ever at this track.


A pleasure to read,plenty insightful analysis,keep it up gents.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 08:40
Don't think so saddo, which horse?

Good luck, nocturnal. Fatlad has picked Deluxe too and I was going to as well, but the drying ground is a concern.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 08:48
Hatsaway, 3.55 Brighton, 1pt win @ 12-1

Hatsaway makes a little appeal on his return to turf.

He was formerly trained by Clive Brittain, who ran the horse in the 2 mile Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot on just his third start in 2014, and although he was out of his depth, he wasn't disgraced on the figures; perhaps surprisingly on the back of that run, Clive only once ran him beyond 10f after, even though he did shape on a couple of occasions as though he needed further (and he is out of a Montjeu mare who won over 14f in France).

He was sold to Pat Phelan for just 5,000 gns last October, and made his stable debut 3 weeks ago over 12f at Kempton where he shaped just OK when finishing 5th of 12.

Hatsaway returns to turf rated 63, which is 24lb below his initial mark, and as he remains unexposed at middle distances, he makes a little appeal at a double figure price, with that recent pipe opener behind him, though drying ground is a concern as I thought one of his better efforts came at Sandown when there was juice in the ground.

Gurkha Friend, 7.25 Catterick, 1pt win @ 9-2

He'd been quite a disappointment since winning a conditions race at Leicester early last season, but his reduced mark combined with a step up to 7f on turf, produced a much more encouraging display last week at Ayr, when looking unlucky not to have won (imo) having failed to secure a clear passage until it was too late, before running on strongly when in the clear to be beaten just under a length in third.

He's unexposed at the trip and potentially well handicapped (9lb below his initial mark) if building on that effort last week, and although he has a potentially tricky draw to overcome, at least this should be truly run with Jay Kay and Dr Red Eye in the race.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 03 May 16 09:08
Oh, hang on, just seen that there was 7mm of rain at Brighton yesterday and the going is given as good to soft in places.
By:
pumphol.
When: 03 May 16 09:15
The Catterick race is a tricky little contest, good luck George.
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