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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook

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Replies: 1,155
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 21 Apr 16 20:41
Some cracking racing over the next couple of days George and there should be plenty of eyecatchers to take away.I gave today a miss but have 23 races down to have a look at for Saturday and plenty of big fields hopefully a winner or 2 under the radar
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Apr 16 20:47
Good luck with your selections tomorrow, Fatlad.

I may be having having a stab at a speculative one at Donny, and maybe one at a price at Sandown.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 21 Apr 16 20:51
Cheers George I've backed a few but but put up what I thought were too big on my thread.I like Gershwin in the last at Sandown though he's the right price I think he could be well in and given his entries and the booking of Frankie he should be ready.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Apr 16 21:42
Midhmaar, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 1.20 Sandown

Midhmaar is the Sheikh Hamdan third string on jockey bookings, and there's a suspicion from his dam's side of the pedigree (half-brother to 13f Group 3 winner Hawafez, also to a 15f winner, dam 14f winner) that he may need further than a mile this season, but he was such an eyecatcher on his final start of last season over today's trip of a mile at Ripon, that he looks worth chancing at a price.

Midhmaar found all the trouble going that day after travelling well into contention, being badly hampered over a furlong out, then not getting a clear run inside the final furlong, before running on strongly to finish second.
It was only a class 4 handicap but form has worked out quite well with the winner Move Up going on to be placed in Listed company at Newmarket, and the third Dolphin Vista coming out this season and winning off a 12lb higher mark.

Midhmar's mark has gone up 5lb, but he looks to have the physical scope to progress further this season, and having been gelded during the winter, interesting to see how he gets on his first start for Owen Burrows.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Apr 16 22:06
Just thinking about that Ripon race again, I suppose it could be argued that Midhmaar was flattered to an extent given Dolphin Vista (who had to use up gas from a wide draw to get a prominent position) and Move Up were close up to what appeared a strong pace, but I still think there was a lot to like about the run.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 16 08:55
Note to self, always get the picks for the telly races up early Crazy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 16 09:00
Pleasure Dome, 4.35 Sandown, 1pt EW @ 16-1

Pleasure Dome finished behind today's rival Shall We when they both made their debut over 1m at Chelmsford in November, and while the latter is open to any amount of improvement herself, I did think there would be more to come from Pleasure Dome  too and a chance is taken at a much bigger price, now tackling 10f.

She looks a sizable sort, who seemed to attract a bit of support at prices in the market (16-1 into 12-1, BFSP: 16.24), and in the race itself she shaped quite well, making up plenty of ground after being wide into the straight to be beaten just under 3l at the finish, leaving the impression a step up in trip will suit.
Pleasure Dome now switches to the grass but is related to turf winners and her dam is from the family of Kingston Hill.

Altarsheed, 5.05 Sandown, 1pt EW @ 22-1

It was disappointing Altarsheed was turned over at evens on his reappearance at Chelmsford 15 days ago, but he remains of interest now up in trip to 10f as he left the distinct impression last season in two turf runs that even as a 2YO he was crying out for a longer trip than a mile, particularly at Haydock when being caught flat footed as the pace lifted before staying on well for third behind today's rival Dal Harraild.

His dam was a 12f winner and he's a half-brother to winners up to13f, so the pedigree backs up the visual impression, and he remains unexposed on turf.

Ban Shoof, 1pt win @ 10-1, 5.25 Doncaster

Ban Shoof seemed to show improved form for the switch to Tapeta when winning on his reappearance at Wolverhampton this month, but there's no reason on pedigree (by Shirocco, half-brother to Cambridgeshire winner Educate) why he shouldn't be effective on turf, and it could be that this good-bodied sort has just improved and developed over the winter.

The form of his win may not amount to much (third beaten since), but there was a lot to like about how Ban Shoof got the job done, travelling well if a little keen, and showing a good attitude after being wide into the straight to get on top close home.

Being by Shirocco and out of a 12f winner on turf, the stiffer test on turf should suit.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 22 Apr 16 09:48
I'm in the same boat tomorrow fatlad I've just checked my alerts and I've got 46 to wade through. Looks like a long night after a long day at work. Be interesting if a few pop up we've all noted though.
By:
Billposter
When: 22 Apr 16 10:27
Puzzled about the riding arrangements in the first race at Sandown Paul Hanagan is riding Ebtihaal not James Doyle and Dane O'Neill is riding Abareeq not Paul Hanagan? Will Paul Hanagan ride Ebtihaal for S bin Suroor in the Derby?
By:
blackbarn
When: 22 Apr 16 10:44
Re Ebtihaal.  I agree it's odd.  Ownership of the horse has been flip-flopping between Hamdan and Godolphin throughout its short career. Never been ridden by PH before although ridden twice by Hamdans 2nd jockey Dane O'Neill.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 22 Apr 16 11:37
I'm tempted to take a bit of a flyer on Emjayem in the 4.55 at Donny today. Very lightly raced for his age he looked a well handicapped horse in the Autumn and he returns today off a mark I'd expect him to be winning off. If he's fit enough I'd fancy him to go close and although he's no great record fresh, his return from a break at Windsor last season bodes well for his ability to do it today. Slight concern about the ground as it'll be slower than he's raced on before but I'd be prepared to take a chance at the price.

He's 28-1 with some books and as short as 10-1 with others.

Gl with yours today
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 16 13:20
Good luck with Emjayem, mackies. I nearly selected Ruby Day for this but wasn't expecting it to be so relatively short.

Richard Hills has given a quote for all 3 runners in the paper and said Hanagan had the choice, so presumably Hamdan owns or part-owns it.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 22 Apr 16 13:24
I'd expect Ruby's Day to run well fresh George.

Nice place to start the day!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 16 13:26
Cheers mackies, shudda got me finger out sooner and I cudda claimed the 25s Crazy
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 22 Apr 16 14:18
I hadn't realised Midhmaar had been such a big price good start in a very hard race
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 22 Apr 16 17:43
Well it started well with a decent place - but there's only one way to describe how the other selections ran - WALOFS.

2.8 pts down on the day.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 16 08:50
Auspicion, 3.15 Ripon, 1pt EW @ 16-1

Auspicion was ultimately disappointing for William Haggas, who had been quick to apply blinkers, and after some heavy defeats (though wasn't disgraced on his final start for Haggas over a trip probably on the short side), was sold to Tom Tate for 22,000 gns.

He was gelded ahead of his first start for Tate, for whom he made his debut at Wolverhampton, and the run caught my eye; taking a keen hold early without any cover, the horse was steadied back towards the rear of the field, and although he could make no impression in the straight, he wasn't given a hard time but still seemed to hit the line well, doing enough imo to suggest he wasn't a lost cause just yet.

Auspicion's mark has dropped to 77, which puts him 9lb below the mark he was on when close up behind big improvers Third Time Lucky, Polarisation and Go Dan Go, and ahead of 3 subsequent winners in a race at Musselburgh last June which worked out really well.

Auspicion remains lightly raced, is potentially well drawn here in 3, and we know he handles the course as he won his maiden here (the form hasn't worked out too badly in retrospect with subsequent winners Cymro and Dark Red behind), and interesting to see if Tom Tate can restore the horse back to his best.

Kaatskill Nap, 1.40 Haydock, 1pt EW @ 33-1

This is a bit of a guess. He made his debut towards the end of August last season at Newbury over 1m, and although he finished well held, I didn't think the run was without promise; slowly away, he was noticeably green, however he was soon tracking the pace before running green and being left behind, but towards the end of the race I got the impression the penny was dropping and he seemed to hit the line quite well.

He could be up against some useful sorts here and normally I'd rather just watch again with a view to the future,  however, his stable has started the season well and have had a maiden winner at Nottingham who seemed to improve a lot on what she had shown last season, so it's not impossible this fella could come on a lot from his first run, particularly given how green he was on debut, and he has been gelded since last seen; interesting also that connections are stepping him straight up to 12f.
By:
jamesdean
When: 23 Apr 16 14:03
Haggas maiden in the 2.45 Haydock George. Fadillah, reckon that was the one he spoke about to Lydia last week?

Said it was going to Sandown but he had no runner entered in the Oaks there I think this is the one. Cost 1.2million euros
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 16 14:38
Cheers for that James. Perhaps come here instead for the better ground.
By:
jamesdean
When: 23 Apr 16 14:40
I'm not 100% George if it is but seems highly likely. A watching race at the price
By:
jamesdean
When: 23 Apr 16 14:49
Fell out the stalls, very very green and won cosily. Haggas knew!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 16 14:53
Good interview by Lydia, coaxed just enuff info out of him Wink
By:
jamesdean
When: 23 Apr 16 14:57
Yep, he didn't want to say much did he!

The wee glint in his eye was telling Grin
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 23 Apr 16 22:34
Lady Poppy, 5.00 Musselburgh, 1pt win @ 8-1

Lady Poppy makes a little appeal making her debut for Jedd O'Keeffe following the retirement of George Moore.
She came to hand early last season, not beaten far when finishing fourth of thirteen on her reappearance at Catterick last April, before going on to win over the same C/D later that month.

Lady Poppy is potentially well handicapped if the change of scenery prompts a return to form, as she starts this season 3lb below her last winning mark following some poor runs last summer. Keiran Schofield, who has been aboard for 2 of her 4 career wins, retains the ride.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 16 10:00
Allfredandnobell, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 2.50 Thirsk

He caught my eye on his debut over 6f at Ripon last season, not getting the clearest of runs and seeming to finish with plenty left in the tank; he than ran respectably in a couple of maiden auctions (not beaten far by horses who went on to win nurseries off marks in the 70s / 80s), each time shaping as though a step up in trip could suit; his nursery debut over 6f at Pontefract was disappointing, for which he has been dropped 3lb to a mark of 62.

Allfredandnobell is of some interest today stepping up in trip today to a mile; his dam is a half-sister to Champion Stakes winner Storming Home, and also to 3 winners at 10f-12f.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 16 15:37
It could be going better, I'll grant you that!

Allfredandnobell wasn't disgraced in 5th, but unfortunately we don't get paid on not being disgraced Crazy

I didn't put this one up earlier cuz I was concerned about the draw, but being drawn low wasn't a disadvantage in the 2.20, so a chance is taken on one at a price in the 5.20 from a low draw.

Blistering Dancer, 5.20 Thirsk, 1pt EW @ 20-1

Lowly-rated gelding who had been right out of form for his previous yard, but since joining Tony Carroll's yard this year he has been running consistently well on the AW without winning, and he's off a little interest here at decent odds now having his first run on turf for Carroll.

Blistering Dancer's sole win to date came on turf in Ireland, and although that was on yielding, he does have form on quicker ground; the form of his latest start on the AW received a boost today when the second horse Iceaxe won earlier on the Thirsk card.
By:
go-all-in
When: 24 Apr 16 17:15
Well done George
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 16 17:18
Cheers go-all-in, unfortunately a nasty R4, and I'm not sure how many times the jock connected with the whip but I think he could be in for a ban.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 24 Apr 16 17:20
Well done George the quicker ground will have helped though shame about the nr's
By:
madhatters
When: 24 Apr 16 17:25
WD GB Grin
Cheers
By:
go-all-in
When: 24 Apr 16 17:29
Fantastic stuff, well done again George! I think that may be the final straw for my Ladcrooks account Laugh

Didn't realize there was a significant NR in the 5.00 race, will check what price I came out with
By:
go-all-in
When: 24 Apr 16 17:30
Just under 11/2 after the NR, not bad at all.
By:
go-all-in
When: 24 Apr 16 17:34
Ah 10p r4 in the Thirsk race too, damn it Crazy
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 24 Apr 16 17:35
SUPERBGrinCool
By:
go-all-in
When: 24 Apr 16 17:38
How late was the withdrawl? Did the bookies no re-make the market afterwards? If they remade the market and returned a 20/1 sp surely I should get paid at 20/1 rather than 20/1 minus r4?
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 24 Apr 16 17:38
That Wolverhampton race doesn't look bad at all now 2nd & 4th both winning and the 3rd was Little Belter nr
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 16 18:06
It was a late withdrawal, go-all-in, horse burst out of the stalls.

Cheers again, a relief to get a decent winning day cuz the stats were starting to turn ugly! Blush
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 24 Apr 16 19:20
Updated thread Profit / Loss & Results


Running P/L

Early odds: +29.39
BFSP (after 5% commission): +10.28
ISP: -0.23

    Date        Horse        Stake        Early Price        BFSP (-5%)        BFSP PL        ISP        Fin Pos        Early Odds p/l        BFSP p/l        ISP p/l   
    1st Apr        Le Manege Enchante        1 win        9        4.66        2.34        5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    1st Apr        Christy's Call        1ew        17        22.85        6.32        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    2nd Apr        Mobsta        1ew        15        8.84        2.84        9        1        16.8        9.68        9.6   
    3rd Apr        Properus        1ew        13        19.79        3.76        15        0        -2        -2        -2   
    3rd Apr        Zhukova        1ew        17        8.19        3.3        7        1        20        9.49        7.5   
    4th Apr        Tessellate        1 win        6        4.95        2.58        5        2        -1        -1        -1   
    5th Apr        Lopes Dancer        1 win        4.33        5.75        2.42        6        2        -1        -1        -1   
    6th Apr        Angie's Girl        1 win        6        5.94        2.25        5.5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    7th Apr        Gold Club        1 win        12        13.35        3.12        11        2        -1        -1        -1   
    7th Apr        Matilda's Gleam        1 win        17        11.26        4.05        11        0        -1        -1        -1   
    8th Apr        Subtle Knife        1ew        *10pR4   13        9.92        2.93        10        2        1.16        0.93        0.8   
    8th Apr        Delagoa Bay        1ew        17        17        5.04        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    9th Apr        Cosmic Tigress        1win        7        9.17        3.95        8.5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    10th Apr        Radiantly        1ew        11        12.4        3.19        10        0        -2        -2        -2   
    11th Apr        Refulgence        1win        6        16.68        3.8        11        0        -1        -1        -1   
    11th Apr        Betsalottie        1win        10        5.24        2.05        5        0        -1        -1        -1   
    11th Apr        Wharane        1win        7        8.9        2.85        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    12th Apr        Bertiewhittle        1ew        10p R4    26        21.9        5.37        17        2        4.63        3.37        3   
    12th Apr        Only Mine        1ew        15        11.17        3.04        11        0        -2        -2        -2   
    13th Apr        Invincible Wish        1ew        26        20.44        6.1        15        0        -2        -2        -2   
    14th Apr        Dinneratmidnight        1ew        26        21.76        5.04        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    14th Apr        Born To Finish        1ew        10p R4    15        5        1.65        4.5        2        2.15        -0.35        -0.13   
    15th Apr        Noor Al Haya        1ew        15        15.73        4.51        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    15th Apr        Debit        1ew        17        34.25        6.31        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    15th Apr        Onerina        1win        8        9.55        3.33        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    15th Apr        Jazz Ranger        1ew        15        38.39        6.23        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    16th Apr        Dreese        1ew        26        34.69        8.25        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    16th Apr        Straduff        1ew        12        13.72        4.32        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    16th Apr        La Manege Enchante        1ew        15        13        3.04        11        0        -2        -2        -2   
    16th Apr        Invincible Wish        1ew        13        15.75        4.52        15        2        2.5        2.52        2.5   
    17th Apr        Fairy Flute        1ew        21        45.65        8.41        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th Apr        Mega fortune        1ew        26        21.8        5.28        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    17th Apr        Gentil J        1ew        15        13.63        4.14        13        0        -2        -2        -2   
    18th Apr        Englishman        1win        8        9.17        2.75        8        1        7        8.17        7   
    19th Apr        Joaldo        1win        13        19.05        5.56        15        0        -1        -1        -1   
    19th Apr        Vivo Per Lei        1ew        34        32.35        7.46        21        3        7.25        5.46        4   
    20th Apr        Applejack Lad        1win        13        19.51        5.22        17        2        -1        -1        -1   
    20th Apr        Antonio Joli        1win        15        24.53        5.57        17        0        -1        -1        -1   
    20th Apr        Vecheka        1win        15        10.03        3.51        10        0        -1        -1        -1   
    21st Apr        Carnageo        1win        8.5        7.67        3.04        8        0        -1        -1        -1   
    21st Apr        Dunquin        1win        10        8.92        3        9        0        -1        -1        -1   
    21st Apr        Briardale        1ew        29        17.1        4.27        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd Apr        Midhmaar        1ew        17        16.71        3.78        17        2        2.2        1.78        2.2   
    22nd Apr        Pleasure Dome        1ew        17        14.26        3.85        11        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd Apr        Altarsheed        1ew        23        37.59        7.39        26        0        -2        -2        -2   
    22nd Apr        Ban Shoof        1win        11        16.04        4.58        15        0        -1        -1        -1   
    23rd Apr        Katskill Nap        1ew        34        22.85        4.78        21        0        -2        -2        -2   
    23rd Apr        Auspicion        1ew        17        28.55        7.37        17        0        -2        -2        -2   
    24th Apr        Allfredandnobell        1ew        13        9.04        3.05        9        0        -2        -2        -2   
    24th Apr        Lady Poppy        1win        35p R4      9        3.89        1.55        4.5        1        5.2        2.89        2.8   
    24th Apr        Blistering dancer        1ew        10p R4    21        25.58        4.76        21        1        22.5        28.34        22.5   
                                                                    29.39        10.28        -0.23   
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 25 Apr 16 07:34
Lightning Spree, 1pt win @ 9-1, 4.20 Ayr

Lightning Spree is of a little interest returning to the C/D of my notebook run; he caught my eye when he ran at Ayr last September and the 12l he was beaten that day did not tell the full story; restrained and dropped in at the start, he travelled well if a little keenly, and was noted making promising headway up the inside rail when denied a clear run and shuffled back to rear, losing all chance in the process.

It's a worry he has only been seen twice since and been disappointing both times, though it's possible to excuse both defeats on account of racing too freely at Hamilton on his final start of last season, and his reappearance run at Doncaster on account of the demanding ground / lack of race fitness.

Those two poor runs have seen Lightning Spree's mark drop 5lb, which allows him into this 0 - 65, and with that seemingly unlucky run at Ayr last season not forgotten, a chance is taken Lightning Spree will revive returned to more favourable conditions and off his reduced mark.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 25 Apr 16 08:16
I can see why you're taking a chance George it's caught the eye a few times with the way he's travelled but in the end I wasn't sure if he'd find in a finish but ability wise he's better than a 0-65.Might be one for an in running lay for your stake back,I don't bet like that but it might be that type?
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