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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook

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Replies: 1,155
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Apr 16 08:58
Joaldo, 5.25 Wolverhampton, 1 pt win @ 12-1

This is a tentative selection given Joaldo has a tricky draw to overcome, has to prove his stamina, and there seemed to be an issue with him hanging last time, but he did catch my eye despite that, and there is reason to believe the  two furlongs step up in trip will suit.

He showed next to nothing in 3 qualifying runs over 7f to one mile, but his handicap and Tapeta debut over 5f, off a basement mark in class 7 company, did offer some encouragement. Joaldo was slowly away that day, possibly wasn't best positioned given how the race panned out, and his task was made even harder by racing three-wide round the bend into the straight, but despite hanging left he caught the eye with his finishing effort and was going on at the finish to just miss fourth.
The third horse Dream Ally has since won a class 6 handicap to give the form a little boost.

Joaldo is out of a Tiger Hill mare who's related to winners up to 10f, so his dam's side of his pedigree and how he shaped last time out, does give hope that the step up in trip will suit.
The draw hasn't been kind being drawn 11 of 11, but with Overrider dropping in trip and Kakapuka in the field, there should be a pace on here to run at and hopefully he can drop in and get a nice position.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Apr 16 09:40
Vivo Per Lei, 6.50 Brighton, 1pt EW @ 33-1

This is a bit speculative, but a chance is taken at a big price.

I thought Vivo Per Lei shaped with a bit of promise given how she stayed on over 8.5f at Wolverhampton in June last season, with longer trips in mind (dam a 14f winner); that turned out to be her final run for Marco Botti and she wasn't seen again until 8 months later at Lingfield over 10f when making her debut for Jon Scargill, but again I thought she shaped ok considering she didn't get the clearest of runs inside the final furlong.

It has to be said her latest start over 12f at Kempton was disappointing and offered little encouragement, however, being by Masterscraftsman, I'm tempted to give her at least one more chance now encountering turf with cut in it for the first time.
VPL has only raced on turf twice to date and that was when qualifying for a mark, and the second run on good to firm over 7.5f at Lingfield wasn't too bad, plugging on for third behind a couple of fillies who went on to be rated in the 80s. VPL was given a mark of 60 on that back of that, and after a few runs on the AW, she returns to turf rated 10lb lower.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 19 Apr 16 11:21
I backed Vivo Per Lei at Kempton after her Lingfield run and expected a fair bit more at 12f but that couldn't have been her running.I've had a little flyer on her today as I fancy a couple in the race but I wouldn't be surprised if she won like you say first time with cut on turf.
By:
go-all-in
When: 19 Apr 16 13:39
wd George
By:
pumphol.
When: 19 Apr 16 14:43
Hi George, I spent a lot of time mulling over that 5.25 race, put up Kakapuka as I fully expected to lay off at a lot lower, bit surprised at the crash in the price this morning tbh but it was a toss up between that & your horse. think Joaldo has a decent chance & I do like that last run my only doubt was it could be better at the track over six furlongs but positive move in the market is promising that's for sure.

Good luck
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Apr 16 15:43
Good luck with VPL, Fatlad. It's a bit of a guess given how poor she was lto and she's back from another break, but the previous 2 runs had suggested she may have something to offer.

Cheers go-all-in, a relief to get off the cold list!

Good luck with Kakapuka, pumphol. It wouldn't be a surprise if yours bounced back given they've managed to get fellow oldies Rigoletto and Eland Ally back to winning form this year.
As for Joaldo, I'm probably more worried about the hanging last time rather than the trip, but for sure it's a concern until he proves his stamina.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 19 Apr 16 15:59
I'm a fan of VPLs trainer George. Seems to do well with the few horses he has.

At a trip a bit further than his best, I like Secret Millionaire in the last at Brighton. If he can repeat either of the performances of his return to turf in the last two years he would be a class above the rest of this field. The short rest he's had is another big positive for him.

Gl everyone
By:
go-all-in
When: 19 Apr 16 18:54
Good effort that George, well played.
By:
twizzle22
When: 19 Apr 16 18:55
Another great shout George..must have gone very low in running..nice place howeverHappy
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 19 Apr 16 18:57
Nice one George,I didn't have the sense to back it ew or have a bit on the horse that beat her at LingfieldCrazybut you found the VALUE bet without a doubt
By:
pumphol.
When: 19 Apr 16 19:05
Nice place there George Happy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Apr 16 19:13
Cheers. Looking at the head-on, she looks like a little pony! I'd say she's worth another try over further on that evidence, looks a bit one paced imo.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 19 Apr 16 19:53
Great shout mackies, well done Cool
By:
mackies-fc
When: 19 Apr 16 19:56
Thanks George. Great couple of days for the thread.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 19 Apr 16 20:09
wd mackies good call,keep up the good work lads some little pearls of wisdom on this threadCool
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 08:57
Applejack Lad, 2.55 Catterick, 1pt win @ 12-1

This is a tentative selection because this horse is eligible for class 6 races and I'm not a huge fan when such horses step up in grade, but that said, I still think Applejack Lad if of some interest at a price given he's unexposed at middle distances, and he was rated a good  bit higher in the past.

Applejack Lad was claimed by Michael Smith out of a Southwell claimer for £3000 in March of last year, having won just one of his 21 starts and seemingly very much on the downgrade; at that point he had yet to race beyond a mile, and had only run on turf 5 times, yet the first thing Smith did was to step the horse up markedly in trip to 12.5f at Newcastle on good to soft, but there seemed little doubt Applejack Lad stayed the trip, meeting significant trouble up the straight before catching the eye with his finishing effort.

His next start over 12.5f at Musselburgh seemed to confirm his stamina for the trip, finishing third behind the well handicapped (at that point) Tapis Libre and Ronald Gee; following a couple of respectable efforts back at 10f, Applejack Lad's last attempt at 12f would prove disappointing, finishing last of 7 at Musselburgh, before ending his season with a respectable run back over 9f at Carlisle.

Applejack Lad ran 3 times over hurdles during the winter and wasn't disgraced on the second of them; he remains unexposed at middle distances on the Flat, and although there's a suspicion he doesn't want it too soft, there appeared to be a good bit of give in the ground the day he caught the eye at Newcastle.

Antonio Joli, 3.30 Catterick, 1pt win @ 14-1

Not sure he achieved much when finishing runner-up in a modest heavy ground 13f bumper at Exeter in December, but 3 qualifying runs on the AW for a mark have not been devoid of promise, particularly the two outings at Kempton.
He goes handicapping off 64, which looks workable, and while he may prove to be more effective on the AW (like his half-sister Heavens Eyes appears to be), a chance is taken at a double figure price.

Vecheka, 5.40 Catterick, 1pt win @ 14-1

Vecheka had caught the eye on his debut for Micky Hammond at Newcastle last April, and then two starts later over today's C/D looked an unfortunate loser in a maiden, being badly hampered by a loose horse before just failing to get up for what would have been an unlikely victory given the interference suffered.

He failed to win after, but ran well in handicaps off marks in the mid-60s, before his form gradually tailed off.
He's a sizable sort who might have benefited from another winter on his back, and he returns this season with his stable continuing in fine form and his mark having dropped to 58, 12lb below his initial rating.
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 20 Apr 16 09:11
I've put Vecheka up on my thread too so it's got a 10lb penalty there but definitely one to keep an eye on regardless.Can see your reasonings for the other 2 but couldn't make my mind up about Antonio Joli mainly due to the slowly run AW races though that could've been against him.I'll be keeping an eye on Aldreth in the 255 his Musselburgh 2m track record last year had some impressive sectionals compared to the 12f race and is more than capable if he's right.gl all the same I'm going down there today as I've got nowt else to do busman's holidayHappy
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 09:26
Good luck to us both with Vecheka, Fatlad.

I must admit I nearly left AJ off, cuz imo it's one of them where you want to see some market support, but as I thought he looked in good nick just 3 weeks ago, I've taken the chance!
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 Apr 16 12:57
Gl

vecheka certainly an interesting one, ticks a lot of boxes definitely handles cut and the track and back to these conditions in this grade of race would surely go close IF ready to roll.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 13:34
Cheers striding, yeah taking a chance on fitness but he seemed to go well fresh last season, so hopefully it's not an issue.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 13:36
Btw striding, do you have any stats on Lawman progeny fresh?

Say either making their debut or returning from over 90 days off?
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 Apr 16 14:54
sorry mate i've been on footy forum will okk these up for you
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 Apr 16 14:59
debutants 15-247 (6%) +£81.90 BFSP

layoffs 90 days +  9-248 (3.63%) -£169.86 BFSP

I look at debutants sometimes  but not sure the lay offs mean much for sires?
By:
FOYLESWAR
When: 20 Apr 16 15:00
nice place george b well done !
By:
mackies-fc
When: 20 Apr 16 15:00
Winner had flown George but another great call well done
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 Apr 16 15:02
Yes nice place George good stuff.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 15:03
Thanks striding, had it on my mind he'd had a few go in on debut at prices, but obviously a poor record for ones returning from a break.

Unfortunately I only had it to win, typical!

He looked pretty strong at the finish there, probably stay even further.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 15:22
Regarding Antonio Joli's chance - the computer says 'no' Sad
By:
mackies-fc
When: 20 Apr 16 15:23
If you dig into the form of Vecheckas reappearance last season in the maiden at Newcastle he was giving weight (12lb) that day to a few 3yo who went on to be rated in the mid 70s and higher. He also ran on well in that race from an unpromising position.

I'd suggest his reappearance was a far better run than it looks on paper. A very interesting one.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 15:28
He raced with the choke out that day too, mackies, as well not getting a clear run from 2f out.

I just hope striding's stats are not indicative that Lawman's progeny get worse with age!
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 Apr 16 15:35
micky just had a winner at catterick George

looked but didn't fancy it on the ground Cry
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 15:37
Third behind none other Astra Hall lto, unlucky striding

As for AJ, presumably back on the AW when the money comes Plain
By:
stridingedge
When: 20 Apr 16 15:39
*lawman stats in general don't show any drop off with age George 5yo actually a tad higher % winners but difference minimal
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 15:41
Thanks for that, striding
By:
Fatlad 1981
When: 20 Apr 16 19:46
George Applejack Lad should have a race in it up in trip but I'm fairly Aldreth can get back on track when he goes back up in trip also.Vecheka was mullered at the start (as you would've seen)but he looked a bit reluctant.I'm predicting cheekpieces and possibly even a hood but definitely cheekpieces.When it gets a good pace has to be worth another go.
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 20 Apr 16 22:56
It might not have helped what happened at the start but I didn't take any encouragement from the run of Vecheka, Fatlad, I thought he still managed to get reasonably positioned relative to the winner, but he offered little in the straight.
Maybe he was badly in need of the run, or he needs the cheekpieces as you suggest, but hard for me to keep the faith after that.

As for Antonio Joli, just had another look back, jeez that was x-rated, imo it was so bad you could be forgiven for thinking the horse had done 10 miles this morning with you-know-who on his back!

I wasn't totally convinced by Applejack Lad either if I'm being honest after reviewing it, thought Mullen had to make the horse's mind up for him.

There's always tomorrow...
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Apr 16 08:08
Carnageo, 2.20 Beverley, 1 pt win @ 15-2

Carnageo makes some appeal stepping back up on trip on handicap debut; he caught my eye over 6f at Redcar on the second of three runs during his juvenile season, not best positioned as the race unfolded and not getting the clearest of runs, before running on well for fourth.

He's a out of a Sadler's Wells mare and a half-brother to a 10.5f winner in France, while other aspects of his pedigree also suggest this return to 7.5f on a stiffer track will suit (he made his C/D when probably in need of the experience / ground might have been too quick).

Carnageo is by Pivotal and the Redcar run came on soft ground, so he may not want the ground to dry out too much; hopefully fitness won't be an issue given his stable's form; he has been gelded since last seen.

Dunquin, 3.20 Beverley, 1pt win @ 9-1

The notebook run came on the AW, which is a slight concern switching to turf, but the main angle is he's unexposed at middle distances and it definitely looked like he was suited by the trip at Wolverhampton last time on just his second start at 12f (he was well beaten on his first attempt but that came at Southwell and the surface might not have suited).

Held up that day at Wolverhampton, he took quite a grip, but despite that in a race where it paid to be prominent, he stayed on well for third and seemed to still have plenty of running left in him at the finish. The form looks reasonable with the winner Biff Johnson bang in form for his new stable, while the 5th Sandy Cove has won since and the second Ice Buster has since run well over a 10f trip probably on the short side for him nowadays.

Dunquin has run OK on turf in Ireland, so hopefully it won't be an issue, but given he can take a keen hold, the outside stall is a worry, particularly round here; he's also returning from a 7 week break.

Briardale, 4.20 Beverley, 1pt EW @ 28-1

This is a speculative one. Briardale won on his debut over C/D last April in what wasn't a good maiden (the fourth horse, rated 77, went on to be rated 90 but doubt he ran to form that day), and on the back of this win was probably given an inflated mark of 81. This would appear to be proven by the fact he has failed to get to within 13l of the winner in his 4 handicap starts since.

However, I didn't think his final run of last season, over 10f on soft ground at Redcar, was without hope, given he raced keenly round the inner tracking the pace and wasn't given a hard time after not getting the clearest of runs up the inside rail around 1.5f out.

His return to action this season was an absolute shocker, beaten 50l over 12f at Catterick 15 days ago, but the ground was demanding and it could be he just didn't handle it; the straws to clutch at today are the return to the scene of his C/D victory, being back on better ground, and his reduced mark of 70.
By:
mackies-fc
When: 21 Apr 16 14:23
Definitely one for another day that one George!
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Apr 16 14:56
yep mackies, some nice late headway under hands and heels Plain
By:
GEORGE.B
When: 21 Apr 16 20:30
Well what a frustrating day, Carnageo was a bit of an eyecatcher I think it's fair to say; Dunquin stayed on really well from a poor position for third and could have done with a stronger pace; while Briardale came back to life but missed a place by a half-a-length. Crossbar...

But the bottom line is -4 on the day.

There's always tomorrow...Sad
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