Good call George..ran v/well

not clear run 2f out, hampered 1f out

dunno if it made any difference mind

Cosmic Tigress, 1pt win @ 6-1, 8.50 Wolves

This winner of a maiden hurdle made quite an encouraging Flat debut behind her unexposed stablemate Project Bluebook over this evening's C/D just over 5 weeks ago, probably not best positioned given how the race panned out, she was noted making promising headway up the inside rail until finding her path blocked inside the final furlong.

She's having to concede a chunk of weight to unexposed 3YOs who may be open to improvement at the trip, and it's also hard to rule out the bumper winner Princess Roania who herself was a bit of an eye-catcher on her recent Flat debut, but Cosmic Tigress herself looks open to considerable improvement on the Flat, being a half-sister to the useful Cosmic Sun and out of the prolific Cosmic Case; and although she may ultimately be one for handicaps further down the line (or back over jumps), I'm going to risk the minimum stake on her this evening.

Innoko, 1pt EW @ 6-1, 9.20 Wolves

Innoko is certainly handicapped to win being 4lb below his last winning mark and he has been shaping of late as though his turn may be near again, particularly 3 starts back when going down by just a neck to Star Ascending (who is unexposed on synthetic surfaces) and last time out when his chance was compromised by trouble in running at the top of the straight over this evening's C/D.

There is a slight concern that he hasn't been helping himself by lugging to his left, but hopefully Luke Morris returning to the saddle will help in that regard, particularly as he is 2-5 on the horse (other jockeys 2-32 on the Flat).

Innoko was a NR and the less said about Cosmic Tigress the better.

Sunday's guess:

Radiantly, 1 pt EW @ 10-1, 3.15 Leopardstown

Radiantly is a half-sister to three 12f winners (including a couple who won on the continent) and she doesn't seem to lack for stamina herself, staying on well to win her maiden over 7.5f at Tipperary last season, and it bodes well for her future that she was able to run so creditably over 7f on good ground in a Group 3 at the Curragh last September, just lacking the pace to land a telling blow but staying on well enough to finish within a length of the winner Coolmore.

The distance of today's Group 3 is also 7f, but the ground conditions should put some emphasis on stamina, and while the ground is an unknown, there seemed to be plenty of juice in the ground when Radiantly won her maiden.

Radiantly is officially rated 8lb inferior to Alice Springs, who will be hard to beat if tuned up for her reappearance, but Radiantly hopefully has place prospects at least, and regarding fitness it is her encouraging that her trainer had one win a handicap easily on its reappearance at Gowran on Saturday.

Refulgence 1 pt win @ 5-1, 3.50 Windsor
Betsalottie 1 pt win @ 9-1, 3.50 Windsor

I've a couple of horses I've notebooked running in the 3.50 and as they're both fit from running on the AW against horses returning from a winter break, I'm going to stick a point on each and hope for the best!

Refulgence is a horse I noted at Leicester over 6f last September, not just because the run was eye-catching (denied clear run at a crucial stage before going on well when in the clear), but also because her pedigree (Azamour / Hernando cross and related to winners up to 10f) would suggest longer trips could see her in a better light.
She was disappointing on her next turf start (on heavy but seems to handle soft / heavy judging by her other turf runs), but has shown reasonable form on the AW this year, and remains of interest now upped in trip on turf.

Betsalottie, although beaten some way on his first two starts, had caught the eye making ground from some way back and hitting the line well. Those races were over a mile and his pedigree (dam a 14f winner and half-sister to multiple 12-14f winner Admirable Duque) strongly suggested that middle distances would suit in due course and the step up to 11f on his handicap debut duly saw him be more competitive, finishing runner-up to one who looked ahead of his mark.

Betsalottie is 2lb out of the handicap here, is dropping back in trip and has to prove himself on soft / heavy turf, but as he has race fitness on his side, a chance is taken at 9-1.

Wharane, 1pt win @ 6-1, 4.20 Windsor

Wharane was beaten a total of 67 lengths in two starts on turf last summer, but following a break of over 3 months he didn't look bereft of ability on his AW debut at Wolverhampton over 7f, not given a hard time but catching the eye with his finishing effort from an unpromising position.

He went handicapping off a mark of 62 at Kempton, and upped in trip to a mile, he was ridden more prominently but didn't see his race out as well as the principals, fading from second place and finishing 5th, beaten 3l.

He's returning from a 4 month break here and has to prove his apparent improvement wasn't just down to racing on a synthetic surface, but interesting that they're taking their chance here rather sticking to the AW, and the booking of Jimmy Fortune catches the eye (3 -5 for the yard in the past 5 seasons; +5.83).

Tough going in the heavy ground and tough going for me too with the losing streak up to 12 Let's hope the better class stuff this week brings better fortune!

Mind, just wait til ya see tomorrow's selection, you'll think I've gone mad!

An interesting one is Bertiewhittle. I followed him off a cliff last summer convinced that he was due an imminent win at a big price and he eventually obliged.

I was going to leave him alone tomorrow mainly due to the 6f being short of his optimum, but I think I will have a small e/w as you do make some good points. Win or lose tomorrow, I do feel he'll popup again at a big price over the coming months, particularly if his mark continues to slide. The hard bit is figuring out when he's going to do it!

I should have pointed out in my write up that Gibbons has presumably opted to ride the other David Barron horse, Free Code, and although the drop back to sprinting doesn't look an obvious move for him either, it's still relatively early days for the horse with Barron.

surprised you go in for that sand-based tracks business, George...have you seen any stats to back it up?...are they the only three tracks that are sand-based? are they artificially sand-based or naturally so? (i'd have thought Yarmouth would be another if the latter)...must admit didnt know York was one


ps  do you have a list of the 'bases' for all tracks?


cheers

A very good thread, George.B!

Regarding the sand-based turf-tracks, I believe some of those mentioned were "drained and re-laid". I guess this involves sand or gravel to some extent.

Interesting theory, anyway.

Well done with the thread!

Have never been able to back it up with stats but I could give you long list of horses who are/were better at Southwell than anywhere else, but whose best turf performance by some way has been at Hamilton


Difficult to investigate on HRB (at least with the know-how i have) but created a list of all horses with 3+ Fibresand wins (that ran on Fib at least once more after 3rd win- didnt do this out of choice, just only way i could populate the list) and then looked at their career turf runs by track:-

Hamilton:  6-40 (15%) roisp -7 (28% plcd)...obv a very small sample, tho fwiw (prob little) that is clearly the best SR of all tracks with 25+ qualifiers, the next best being 8.6% (York & Leicester)

Nae bother, mfc

sean, yeah, I probably thought of York cuz of the drainage work.

Unlucky George. A typical late run. Great place money though

nice run there George wd

Cheers. Good old Bertie, we could describe him as the ultimate late-headway monkey, but that would be a bit harsh!Probably a good job the rain came.

Poor from Only Mine, particularly with the filly she beat at Newmarket reversing the form to finish second at 33-1.

Suppose the temptation is to say she didn't stay, but not sure she was totally done with when Ted forced ? Queally to stop riding.

Cheers go-all-in, and well done on the place.

Interesting selection that, Ryan put it up in the guessers thread too and it's being pretty heavily backed. Best of luck with it and hopefully you're both right :)

Afternoon, saddo