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2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
2016 Flat Season - One a day from the Notebook
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 deserves some of these | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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George.
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Very very good
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Sad scenes regarding the 2 horses
 Cheers all, thought there had to be doubts over Found today, especially given the ground. 2 withdrawals but they were both bigger than 14-1 this morning. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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WD George a good winner
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Another corking winner George, vwd.
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Running profit OR loss totals will be updated and posted every Sunday evening
Early odds: +34.2 BFSP (-5% commission): +14.17 Industry SP: +12.1 Win strike rate: 2/5 (40%) Place strike rate 2/5 (40%)
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Well Done George
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Cheers Virgin
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Tessellate, 1 pt win @ 5-1, 2.50 Lingfield
I'm not expecting too many selections this season to be running in sellers, but on a quiet day of Flat action, Tessellate is of a little interest on this marked step up in trip. The notebook run came at Chelmsford last October over 6f when just behind subsequent dual scorer Palpitation, and the way she kept on that day suggested, as the dam's side of her pedigree would indicate, that further would suit. Two more runs that month over 5 & 6f at Kempton were disappointing, and she wasn't seen again until 5 days ago when well held at Lingfield over 7f (shaped slightly better than the bare result having met interference in the straight). She is a few pounds 'wrong' with a couple of these on the adjusted figs, and being by Acclamation it is questionable whether she wants to go as far as 10f, but there are 10f - 12f winners close up in her pedigree, and interesting that connections have opted to up her 3f in trip, with Luke Morris taking over in the saddle. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Well it deffo looked like she stayed but unfortunately Luke spent 2 of the last 3 furlongs in a pocket and never got a clear shot at it, but obviously given how the winner has won it would be pushing it to call her unlucky.
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Lopes Dancer, 1pt win @ 100-30, 2.00 Pontefract
Given today's conditions it is encouraging that Lopes Dancer's best run to date came on the softest ground he has encountered. The run came in a Thirsk maiden last May and the form has worked out very well, with the second horse First Sitting, who finished half-a-length in front of Lopes Dancer, going on to be rated in the 90s, and Lord Of The Rock, who was 3.5l behind him in fourth, coming out on Saturday and winning the Spring Mile off a mark of 88. The winner Obsidian failed to win again last season but was placed off marks in the 80s in competitive handicaps. This makes Lopes Dancer's mark of 72 look quite appealing, and although he failed to win twice off a mark of 74 last season, both those runs were on good ground which might not have suited. He did give the impression at Thirsk that further than one mile would suit but given the likely conditions today, hopefully this will represent enough of a stamina test. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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gl George i had a little go on handheld at 40.0 fitness very much after long lay off but up to class and would handle conditions if all is well.
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*fitness doubt
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Unlucky, beaten by something you'd struggle to fancy.
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I thought it ran well seeing as it pulled and the winner had the front ride
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He ran alright, just wonder if he needs further, even in those conditions, or a stronger pace than he got there.
Just to correct something I wrote in me little write up, he'd only run once in a handicap before. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Angie's Girl, 1 pt win @ 5-1, 6.15 Kempton
Angie's Girl looks well worth a try over 7f being related to mile winners (including at 2YO) and on the evidence of her fourth and final start of her juvenile year at Leicester. She travelled quite well towards the stands' side that day, but she soon found herself isolated from the other principals who raced in the centre of the track, and after looking a little outpaced she kept on well for a clear third. Angie's Girl has to prove herself on the Polytrack, but the way she travelled at Leicester and being by Exceed And Excel is encouraging on that front. She was an expensively bought filly at 130,000 guineas and she looks to have the scope to progress as a 3YO, while the handicapper has tried to help by dropping her 2lb. Fitness has to be taken on trust, but Clive Cox is well capable of having one ready and he did have one win on its reappearance at Lingfield two days ago. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Gl George
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Cheers striding
The intention, for better or worse, is to pick them at double-figure prices, but too many nagging doubts about the few on my shortlist today, so it's another relative shortie! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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It's hard to find double figure value chances day in day out unless you use prices at 445pm the day before which sre quickly shortened if out of line.Sunday's in Ireland was a good un though,should get easier when the season kicks in Newmarket next week.
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Without sounding like a whinger, find htis time of the year especially tough, you have the lay off return runs and plenty of soft/heavy around. Just primarily looking to get a few in the book for the future whilst it's like this, got 4 so far.
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Over the last 3 or 4 years at this time of year I'm forever backing horses that win NEXT time out,but it's hard to resist missing a potential winner just in case they need the run
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will give the benefit of the doubt but if you have a few seasons where they've took a few runs feel a bit of a mug tbh when they blatantly don't look fit/ready
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Trying to learn from past mistakes myself,I fancied Ancient Astronaut strongly yesterday and got stuck in but he ran like he'd improve for the run and experience,I liked him so much first time last year and believe he's well h'capped I couldn't let him go unbacked.
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Gl George
I quite like Bahango today 5.05 Catterick, looks fairly exposed on the face of things but I have a feeling from watching it's last run last year and 1st run this that the horse has improved and might be ahead of its mark. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Good luck mackies
I've had a small bet on old timer Captain Scooby, who has looked in good form in 2 runs away from Southwell recently, and perhaps was a tad unlucky lto at Kempton. Likely pace set-up and ground could be in his favour, but not sure about trap 10. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I backed him last week George, and felt he was unlucky not to go close. I've swerved him today because I don't think the track is for him. Don't doubt he'll be winning soon if the ground stays as it is though. Good luck.
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had my eye on croosers sinfonietta for notebook if it showed anything today when stepped up in trip, didn't think a mile on its return was the call (should stay a good deal further)
just totally blitzed them stable door bolted etc... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Unlucky with Captain Scooby George
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Nearly won. Nice place though
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Disappointing, fading to fourth after possibly doing a bit too much on the sharp end. After watching that I think her best chance of success may be back against her own sex.
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Gold Club, 1pt win @ 11-1, 7.50 Chelmsford
Gold Club is of some interest returning from over 6 months off having arguably been unfortunate not to win on each of his seasonal reappearances to date. At Beverley in 2014 and Lingfield (AW) in 2015, he finished off strongly after suffering significant trouble in running, showing that he goes very well fresh. He is also unexposed on synthetic surfaces, from 5 starts on the AW, he shaped very well on his debut at Wolverhampton when looking in need of the experience, he has won at both Wolverhampton and Kempton, perhaps been unlucky not to win at Lingfield too as outlined above, and on the other occasion finding the race not panning out his way over 7f (pulled hard off a steady pace, but still not beaten far) at Wolverhampton. The downside to his chance is that he is up in the weights after 3 wins in 2015, though his effort of this evening's mark at Chester when last seen showed he is capable of being competitive off a mark in the high 70s. He also has to prove himself at Chelmsford. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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I've just noticed when I was updating the spreadsheet for this that I'd put the wrong price in for Mobsta, but I've corrected it to 15, just in case anyone had noticed and thought I was fiddling the P/L
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Matilda Gleam, 1 pt win @ 16-1, 8.20 Chelmsford
Now the markets have settled down, I've decided to have a second selection today on Matilda Gleam, who it has to be said may not be the easiest, and has been a big drifter this morning as others have come in for support, but has shown enough to suggest she can be competitive in a race like this of a mark off 57. She caught the eye on her third qualifying run over 6f at Kempton when not given a hard time to finish fourth (the third horse Black Bess was beaten less than a length off 67 recently). Matilda Gleam was given an initial rating of 63 and shaped with promise on handicap debut at Wolverhampton in December, when from the widest draw she raced wide and freely without cover, yet kept on surprisingly well to not be beaten far despite finishing only seventh. After failing to land a blow on her next start, she then reappeared after a two month break at Kempton, where she did herself no favours whatsoever by taking a fierce hold; dropped to back to 5f for her latest start, she again failed to land a blow after being restrained to try and settle her. Clearly her free-going nature is a problem and it's questionable whether this track and a small field will help one who needs cover, but a change of jockey may help with Kieran O'Neill taking over, and off a 6lb lower mark than her initial rating, a chance is taken at a double-figure price. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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A slight bout of seconditis so far this week with 3 2nds from 5 picks
 Gold Club again went well fresh, keeping on into second place, but unfortunately for me the winner just pulled out extra and probably had a bit in hand at the finish. I was optimistic when I saw Matilda Gleam going to post early and looking happy with life, and then they got into the stalls without any hassle, but it didn't stop her from pulling like a mustang again and she faded into a well held third. There's always another day... | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Friday's Picks
Subtle Knife, 1pt EW @ 12-1, 5.25 Leicester Subtle Knife has probably been shaping a bit better of late than her form figures would suggest, including on her latest start when out of her depth in the fillies' and mares' race on AW Championship Finals Day. She returns to turf today and is only 3lb higher than when winning easily in heavy ground at Lingfield last season. Obviously fitness and ability to handle the ground will be important given the forecast conditions at Leicester, and being reunited with Paddy Pilley is no bad thing given he has won 3 times on the mare from 10 rides. Delagoa Bay, 1pt EW @ 16-1, 7.20 Wolverhampton Benjamin Sanderson has only had 10 rides in public and has yet to ride a winner, but given his inexperience, he hasn't done too badly on 2 of his 3 rides so far on Delagoa Bay, particularly two starts back when finishing close up behind the in-form pair Happy Jack and Storytale (with this evening's rival Mrs Burbridge behind). That was over 12f but Delagoa Bay has won over this evening's trip of 2m, and although things didn't go to plan for the pair at Kempton last time out (got caught a bit wide if memory serves), they would appear to have EW prospects here at decent odds, granted a kinder trip. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Good run from Gold Club George.
I'm a bit surprised Sir Hugh didn't put Subtle Knife up today he's waxed lyrical about the horse in this ground previously. Competitive race but at the prices I like Subtle Knife. There's a horse from my flat notebook running at Aintree today, Cardinal Palace, that looks interesting at a big price for a few reasons. Rare foray over sticks for me. Good luck | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Good luck with Cardinal Palace, mackies.
I wasn't expecting Subtle Knife to be a double-figure price tbh, but she was 14s in a couple of places (though went with the general price of 12s for the purposes of this thread). Let's hope the ground isn't a shock to her system after racing on the Poly! | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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you got the place george but thwarted by hugh taylor's double.
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