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GUSCHER
31 Mar 16 09:45
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Date Joined: 02 Jun 08
| Topic/replies: 139 | Blogger: GUSCHER's blog
Hi, I use a bot to laybet the favourites with certain criteria attached. i.e type of race, odds range, usual stuff. I am doing ok in profit since Feb 1. with a strike rate of 78.8% over 255 bets.   I have looked back over this period and  am after a bit of advice/help.  It looks as though if I used the same criteria but incorporated a profit limit or even a 'stop at a winner system' those profits would increase quite considerably as I wouldn't be betting so many races and often going from profit to loss by the end of the day.  Obviously this  would restrict my profits on the really good days when I don't get a single loss.   Although at the moment it feels I could increase profits by using profit stops and/ or  No. of winning bets stop. I am a bit worried that my sample base I'm looking at is so small that my theory/results will be wildly inaccurate and I could go from a winning system (at the moment!) to a losing one over the next few months. I also feel that IF I have a long term winning system why change it and if the system is robust enough it should be able to cope with letting it run through every race. Thanks for any advice.

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Replies: 34
By:
longbridge
When: 31 Mar 16 09:52
Your sample size is very small but:

- it's entirely possible that restricting your betting to a subset of races would improve your profitability

- selecting that subset of races by avoiding races after your first winner or after having made a profit don't seem likely selection critera for such an improvement, there is no reason to believe that the races that you 'select out' by such a method are any more or less likely to make you money than the races you 'select in'.
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 31 Mar 16 10:38
Done it cannot be
By:
GUSCHER
When: 31 Mar 16 11:27
Thank you for your replies. swift, when you say it cannot be done, why do you say that? Have you tried every criteria,condition and filter with every odds range, which would give you thousands of permutations to bet against. Please explain, you might just convince me to give it up and save some money!
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Mar 16 11:46
Why would imposing a profit limit on a daily basis be a profit maximizing situation GUSCHER?

You have been doing this since feb 1st which in itself is a very short time scale to be basing anything on.You are either onto something where your criteria has highlighted something and you keep going with it, or you are benefiting from a random fortunate streak which will revert to the norm in time.

I cannot for the life of me see why it would be a good idea to stop at a given profit, there is no logical/scientific/mathematical reason why the distribution of your selections would be such as to think this would somehow improve/maximize your profits.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Mar 16 11:47
I'm on trying to pee on your fireworks btw, i wish you every success but i am as sure as i could be about anything that what you are suggesting is not logical.
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Mar 16 11:47
*not trying
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 31 Mar 16 11:55
Guscher, what you seem to be after is a consistent series of events (based on criteria) that you can guarantee will lead to profits in the future.

In my opinion, you will not find this to be true for horse racing.
In other words, horse racing systems don't work.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 31 Mar 16 14:09
Thanks guys, much appreciated comments. I will keep trying, but comments heeded!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 31 Mar 16 14:16
So Swift you're saying that the only people who can profit long term on racing at betfair are those with infinite knowledge and experience of all things racing?
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 14:32
Guscher... keep your lays down too 3 a day.. max and 2 win bets max
now it all depends on race times  say  the first is a lay and you are right  ok 4 to run  next is a win bet and your right again  next is a win bet and your right again  thats 32 nothing to you ... and you should be well in front ....dump the other 2 ...
start again tomorrow... works for me ...good luck
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Mar 16 14:36
god this place actually hurts sometimes Cry
By:
swift-tuttle
When: 31 Mar 16 14:36
possibly Gus

but actually thinking about it, there is a system that works

that is, laying bets in volume about a number (ideally all of them) of horses in the same race and laying them at prices which come from an overround book of roughly 120%
By:
dave1357
When: 31 Mar 16 14:40

Mar 31, 2016 -- 8:36AM, stridingedge wrote:


god this place actually hurts sometimes


He really should get checked out for dementia

By:
Cork Langer
When: 31 Mar 16 14:42
guscher, do yourself a favour and ignore Zippy's post, he means no harm, he just hasn't a clue what you or indeed anyone else is on about
By:
GUSCHER
When: 31 Mar 16 14:43
That's great, thanks Zipper, I was thinking something along those lines, which would work with the criteria/system I'm using, although as I said it's very early days. Plus I understand the other comments about why should it make a difference to stop early. Omnly time will tell!
By:
GUSCHER
When: 31 Mar 16 14:50
Sorry chaps, didn't mean to start a full blown argument! Just a bit of sound advice would have done!
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 14:51
cork your such an idiot... my  advice  is sound   why  it works  ..take today 4 meetings 27 races.. starts 2.00  goes on till 8.40 ...yawn.... nobody can win  betting or laying over that time.... the books will love you if you try   that why all my backs or lays are before 4.00 clock.. win lose or draw
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Mar 16 14:55
Zipper bless him has a habit of not reading posts GUSCHER, he often comes up with his own agenda that doesn't relate to what others are actually posting.

your stop profit idea

when you get a bad day that will always be the case whatever you do, the losses will always be maximum.
when you get a good day say you lay 8 or 9 favs, your stop profit target will not maximize the gains

The distribution of your successes and failures is not predictable from each selection, you either have faith in your criteria long term or you don't. Trying to cap profits on the basis this is safer is just not logical.
By:
Cork Langer
When: 31 Mar 16 14:57
Stop trying to hijack the guys thread Zippy you attention seeker, everyone knows your form and your inability to comprehend numbers, start your own thread and I'll happily continue to point out your faults.
By:
GUSCHER
When: 31 Mar 16 15:04
I must admit Stride, I did think IF the system were to work, why would you stop short in the day to lock in profits rather than gain more to use as insurance against the losing days. Obviously the system needs to be sound proof....but do they exist using a bot while ones at work!?
By:
stridingedge
When: 31 Mar 16 15:10
If there's not enough data in your results you'll find about 99% of the time the positive results will be a blip in the distribution, If it still works as the number of observations in the sample increase, others will usually cotton on and any profits are eroded longer term.

come back in a few months and let us know what the crack is

gl
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 15:12
if your any good at this game.. you dont need a job / work ...
By:
roida
When: 31 Mar 16 15:31
zipper..gab shave susies gash yfdsc.
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 15:35
for a example this  3.35 fav is a cert the 5 nag ..i dont need it why cause my 2 lays got beat and my nap won ... 3 out of 3  will do for me
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 15:38
cantered in  .. diif class
By:
roida
When: 31 Mar 16 15:40
unraced but a cert...wadfsc
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 15:45
that me out ... medicine time .. the nurse  is in the  drawing room ..  Steven and Susan  are   getting my fav drink ... OK  the doc said dont drink and dive  thats why i employ GrahamLaughLaughLaugh
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 15:49
roida ......i have a very good  paddock  judge .. and  he was on the blower  saying it looks f...ing  ...  magnificent... Arizona John
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 15:50
that really is me out... good luck if you play on
By:
roida
When: 31 Mar 16 16:13
whers John from?
By:
zipper
When: 31 Mar 16 16:22
RAMPTON... Arizona John is his nick name.. we made pals and he likes the horses.. but to answer  your question The USA >> GOOD NIGHT
By:
roida
When: 31 Mar 16 16:23
texas?
By:
GUSCHER
When: 31 Mar 16 16:48
Bloody el I'm so confused now I wish i'd never asked! but thanks anyway!!
By:
roida
When: 31 Mar 16 16:59
just follow zipper...to broadmoor
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