Used variable stakes in the past now doing level stakes (for ease) in shops with BOG the results I put up will be the returns I get in cash, I will be splitting bets between firms so there may be discrepancies in returns but I will always use actual returns for P&L
Bet 1 9 x £10 EW Doubles Ennistown, Black Iceman, Trader Jack 3:15 W Comicas, Dragon Mall, Kasseopia 6:15 D
Probably all different degrees of punting ....as you say its the positive expectation on the place side that gives it traction and laying off the win side gives you that.
Probably all different degrees of punting ....as you say its the positive expectation on the place side that gives it traction and laying off the win side gives you that.
No form based picks horses making debuts,plus books always underprice these races now so unless you're doing the form how do you know you are getting anyvalue,it;'s just total nonsense.Twenty five years you'd be looking at 6s on shot and looking at the bigger prices and form in races in maidens and novices,those races you hardly ever see anymore and the 25/1 shots are now 8/1 shots.There's very little point in looking at these sort of races nowadays,obviously will be exceptions but to be doing cross doubles on a daily basis trying to find value and with the riosk of so many runners being taken out,it's completely futile..
No form based picks horses making debuts,plus books always underprice these races now so unless you're doing the form how do you know you are getting anyvalue,it;'s just total nonsense.Twenty five years you'd be looking at 6s on shot and looking at t
The giggalo, you are wrong. With these bets, if you look at the betfair odds (true odds) compared to the bookies odds, your have a definite edge in the place market. With an edge, you will have your ups and downs but long term (like a casino) you will win.
But the bookies are not stupid, they know this and if you are solely betting these events you will be stopped. So it is a battle of getting on rather than selections.
The giggalo, you are wrong. With these bets, if you look at the betfair odds (true odds) compared to the bookies odds, your have a definite edge in the place market. With an edge, you will have your ups and downs but long term (like a casino) you
Like I said if you can find them on form then fair enough,not like the bets on this thread the thieving bets are thing of the past,they were a 10x better bet 20+ years ago just so many factors now that make it impossible to win.
Like I said if you can find them on form then fair enough,not like the bets on this thread the thieving bets are thing of the past,they were a 10x better bet 20+ years ago just so many factors now that make it impossible to win.
she is a good poster leave her be to put up , very unlucky as facts stated cant be ars---ed with people having a pop , lady luck has not been with her good luck op with the thread !
she is a good poster leave her be to put up , very unlucky as facts stated cant be ars---ed with people having a pop , lady luck has not been with hergood luck op with the thread !
Picking the first 3 in the betting with no reasoning doesn't mean you have an edge on the place side its just total guessing,infact if it weren't for the crazy winners that she's had in winning doubles the thread would be losing 1000s!
Picking the first 3 in the betting with no reasoning doesn't mean you have an edge on the place side its just total guessing,infact if it weren't for the crazy winners that she's had in winning doubles the thread would be losing 1000s!
Bet 100 (Half Way) Timingiseverything, Silken Thomas, End of Line, Bally Moon 2:05 W Dhahmaan, Dream Destination, Above and Beyond, Explosive Power 2:00 D 16 x £10 EW Doubles
Bet 100 (Half Way)Timingiseverything, Silken Thomas, End of Line, Bally Moon 2:05 WDhahmaan, Dream Destination, Above and Beyond, Explosive Power 2:00 D16 x £10 EW Doubles
Crazy bets you're doing in £230 before one's even run and you say they're for winning on the place side of bets,an impossibility presuming the 3 that head the market even place and everything went perfect you'd turn over a tiny profit.Would like to see the bets without the win doubles you've hit must be doing in thousands...
Crazy bets you're doing in £230 before one's even run and you say they're for winning on the place side of bets,an impossibility presuming the 3 that head the market even place and everything went perfect you'd turn over a tiny profit.Would like to
Actually you're doing in £260 before a race has run,so you'd need a 30% profit on stake just to break even on the £840 staked today.The only way you're going to win on these bets is if you hit a lucky double with a couple of drifters,basically that's why you're level as you've had a few win doubles,won nothing on the place side of bets..
Actually you're doing in £260 before a race has run,so you'd need a 30% profit on stake just to break even on the £840 staked today.The only way you're going to win on these bets is if you hit a lucky double with a couple of drifters,basically that
Hi PennyPincher, I'd love to see a final breakdown of these bets once you're finished here. Mainly, which race types produced the best results/least upsets. It seems you are focussing on the market rather than the race type at the moment, so an analysis of which races the best results came from might be useful - Maidens v Conditions v Novices. UK v Ireland. Amateur v Apprentice v Non Conditional. High prize money events v Low. etc, etc. Of course, 200-400 bets won't be enough data to prove anything, but it may give you a direction to explore further. I wasn't able to maintain an edge in these bet types due to what I believe are nefarious practices by bookmakers (cutting a field from 16 to 15 in Handicaps, 8 to 7 or 5 to 4 runners in other races for example, which I can assure you happens more often than is statistically normal) and now I mainly concentrate on exploiting the inherent value in the PlacePot. Good luck with the remainder of the trial and thanks for sharing the journey.
Hi PennyPincher,I'd love to see a final breakdown of these bets once you're finished here.Mainly, which race types produced the best results/least upsets. It seems you are focussing on the market rather than the race type at the moment, so an analysi
Bet 1 Stake £180 Returned £135 P&L -£45 Bet 2 Stake £180 Returned £365 P&L +£140 Bet 3 Stake £200 Returned £156 P&L +£96 Bet 4 Stake £200 Returned £252 P&L +£148 bet 5 Stake £180 Returned £211 P&L +£179 Bet 6 Stake £180 Returned £175 P&L +£174 Bet 7 Stake £240 Returned £288 P&L +£222 Bet 8 Stake £180 Returned £114 P&L +£156 Bet 9 Stake £180 Returned £194 P&L +£170 Bet 10 Stake £180 Returned £163 P&L +£153 Bet 11 Stake £180 Returned £475 P&L +£448 Bet 12 Stake £180 Returned £204 P&L +£472 Bet 13 Stake £180 Returned £193 P&L +£485 Bet 14 Stake £200 Returned £341 P&L +£626 Bet 15 Stake £180 Returned £208 P&L +£654 Bet 16 Stake £180 Returned £109 P&L +£583 Bet 17 Stake £240 Returned £471 P&L +£814 Bet 18 Stake £180 Returned £110 P&L +£744 Bet 19 stake £180 Returned £283 P&L +£847 Bet 20 stake £180 Returned £304 P&L +£971 Bet 21 stake £200 Returned £284 P&L +£1055 Bet 22 Stake £180 Returned £100 P&L +£975 Bet 23 Stake £180 Returned £199 P&L +£994 Bet 24 Stake £240 Returned £284 P&L +£1038 Bet 25 Stake £240 Returned £120 P&L +£918 Bet 26 Stake £240 Returned £515 P&L +£1193 Bet 27 Stake £180 Returned £128 P&L +£1141 Bet 28 Stake £240 Returned £222 P&L +£1123 Bet 29 Stake £180 Returned £115 P&L +£1058 Bet 30 Stake £240 Returned £111 P&L +£929 Bet 31 Stake £240 Returned £279 P&L +£968 Bet 32 Stake £240 Returned £158 P&L +£886 Bet 33 Stake £240 Returned £79 P&L +£725 Bet 34 Stake £240 Returned £175 P&L +£660 Bet 35 Stake £180 Returned £51 P&L +£531 Bet 36 Stake £180 Returned £53 P&L +£404 Bet 37 Stake £180 Returned £323 P&L +£547 Bet 38 Stake £240 Returned £473 P&L +£780 Bet 39 Stake £240 Returned £189 P&L +£729 Bet 40 Stake £480 Returned £690 P&L +£939 Bet 41 Stake £240 Returned £227 P&L +£926 Bet 42 Stake £240 Returned £176 P&L +£862 Bet 43 Stake £240 Returned £126 P&L +£748 Bet 44 Stake £240 Returned £54 P&L +£562 Bet 45 Stake £240 Returned £238 P&L +£560 Bet 46 Stake £240 Returned £225 P&L +£545 Bet 47 Stake £270 Returned £405 P&L +£680 Bet 48 Stake £240 Returned £98 P&L +£538 Bet 49 Stake £240 Returned £134 P&L +£432 Bet 50 Stake £240 Returned £219 P&L +£411 Bet 51 Stake £270 Returned £422 P&L +£563 Bet 52 Stake £240 Returned £132 P&L +£455 Bet 53 Stake £180 Returned £378 P&L +£653 Bet 54 Stake £240 Returned £269 P&L +£682 Bet 55 Stake £180 Returned £192 P&L +£694 Bet 56 Stake £180 Returned £226 P&L +£740 Bet 57 Stake £180 Returned £85 P&L +£645 Bet 58 Stake £180 Returned £411 P&L +£876 Bet 59 Stake £180 Returned £180 P&L +£876 Bet 60 Stake £120 Returned £71 P&L +£827 Bet 61 Stake £120 Returned £184 P&L +£891 Bet 62 Stake £180 Returned £248 P&L +£959 Bet 63 Stake £180 Returned £415 P&L +£1194 Bet 64 Stake £180 Returned £53 P&L +£1067 Bet 65 Stake £240 Returned £210 P&L +£1037 Bet 66 Stake £240 Returned £277 P&L +£1074 Bet 67 Stake £240 Returned £213 P&L +£1047 Bet 68 Stake £240 Returned £198 P&L +£1005 Bet 69 Stake £240 Returned £136 P&L +£901 Bet 70 Stake £180 Returned £244 P&L +£965 Bet 71 Stake £240 Returned £422 P&L +£1147 Bet 72 Stake £270 Returned £168 P&L +£1045 Bet 73 Stake £240 Returned £182 P&L +£987 Bet 74 Stake £360 Returned £402 P&L +£1029 Bet 75 Stake £60 Returned £176 P&L +£1145 Bet 76 Stake £240 Returned £39 P&L +£944 Bet 77 Stake £320 Returned £62 P&L +£686 Bet 78 Stake £270 Returned £282 P&L +£698 Bet 79 Stake £240 Returned £181 P&L +£639 Bet 80 Stake £240 Returned £283 P&L +£682 Bet 81 Stake £240 Returned £154 P&L +£596 Bet 82 Stake £180 Returned £104 P&L +£520 Bet 83 Stake £180 Returned £234 P&L +£574 Bet 84 Stake £240 Returned £699 P&L +£1033 Bet 85 Stake £240 Returned £416 P&L +£1209 Bet 86 Stake £240 Returned £232 P&L +£1201 Bet 87 Stake £240 Returned £164 P&L +£1125 Bet 88 Stake £240 Returned £114 P&L +£999 Bet 89 Stake £240 Returned £106 P&L +£865 Bet 90 Stake £240 Returned £344 P&L +£969 Bet 91 Stake £240 Returned £167 P&L +£896 Bet 92 Stake £360 Returned £210 P&L +£746 Bet 93 Stake £240 Returned £401 P&L +£907 Bet 94 Stake £240 Returned £000 P&L +£667 Bet 95 Stake £240 Returned £495 P&L +£922 Bet 96 Stake £270 Returned £401 P&L +£1053 Bet 97 Stake £240 Returned £000 P&L +£813 Bet 98 Stake £240 Returned £218 P&L +£791 Bet 99 Stake £240 Returned £103 P&L +£654 Bet 100 Stake £320 Returned £247 P&L +£581
Bet 1 Stake £180 Returned £135 P&L -£45Bet 2 Stake £180 Returned £365 P&L +£140Bet 3 Stake £200 Returned £156 P&L +£96Bet 4 Stake £200 Returned £252 P&L +£148bet 5 Stake £180 Returned £211 P&L +£179Bet 6 Stake £180 Returned £175 P&L
How are you working these returns out you knocked out 260 on doubles before the bets even run the bottom bet only returns around £124 how many others are you working out wrong.
How are you working these returns out you knocked out 260 on doubles before the bets even run the bottom bet only returns around £124 how many others are you working out wrong.
Kenco: Picking the first 3 in the betting with no reasoning doesn't mean you have an edge on the place side its just total guessing,infact if it weren't for the crazy winners that she's had in winning doubles the thread would be losing 1000s
Crazy winners a 6/1 chance? What about the "crazy winners" that have cost £1000s 25/1 shots that are 70/1 on betfair? There are no such thing as Crazy Winners, these are just winners that occur less often.
Thegiggilo: Granted that these races were priced up more generously in the past but that doesnt mean there is no edge today. Regardless of amount of profit I have done two threads and both are well in profit and I for one wouldn't knock anyone who can turn a profit long term regardless of method.
I wish I hadn't said I would go to 200 bets now but I will keep to my word and carry on, who knows I may hit 5k before then and I can stop.
Evee: I don't have these records, I calculate a 'true odds' and then use Kelly to work out a staking plan, I don't do that on here because I work to roughly level stakes on this thread just as a demonstration. I think regardless of race type the results would be the same over time, but I have no proof either way.
just a few responses:Kenco: Picking the first 3 in the betting with no reasoning doesn't mean you have an edge on the place side its just total guessing,infact if it weren't for the crazy winners that she's had in winning doubles the thread would be
Bet 100 Balance b/fwd +£581 Bet 101 Stake £240 Returned £612 P&L +£953 Bet 102 Stake £240 Returned £703 P&L +£1416 Bet 103 Stake £240 Returned £580 P&L +£1756 Bet 104 Stake £270 Returned £531 P&L +£2017
I guess I had to hit one eventually
Bet 100 Balance b/fwd +£581Bet 101 Stake £240 Returned £612 P&L +£953Bet 102 Stake £240 Returned £703 P&L +£1416Bet 103 Stake £240 Returned £580 P&L +£1756Bet 104 Stake £270 Returned £531 P&L +£2017I guess I had to hit one eventually
I agree with the poster saying anyone who can turn a profit at this game deserves respect, but in reality can anyone actually place the suggested bets without breaking every bet down into 1 x £10 E/W doubles?
Can't believe any online firm will accommodate these bets.
Certainly not knocking the theory, but if anyone knows a firm that will accept bets such as these, please let me know.
I agree with the poster saying anyone who can turn a profit at this game deserves respect, but in reality can anyone actually place the suggested bets without breaking every bet down into 1 x £10 E/W doubles?Can't believe any online firm will accomm
Bet 100 Balance b/fwd +£581 Bet 101 Stake £240 Returned £612 P&L +£953 Bet 102 Stake £240 Returned £703 P&L +£1416 Bet 103 Stake £240 Returned £580 P&L +£1756 Bet 104 Stake £270 Returned £531 P&L +£2017 Bet 105 Stake £240 Returned £335 P&L +£2112 Bet 106 Stake £240 Returned £903 P&L +£2775 Bet 107 Stake £180 Returned £101 P&L +£2636 Bet 108 Stake £180 Returned £202 P&L +£2658 Bet 109 Stake £320 Returned £322 P&L +£2660
Bet 100 Balance b/fwd +£581Bet 101 Stake £240 Returned £612 P&L +£953Bet 102 Stake £240 Returned £703 P&L +£1416Bet 103 Stake £240 Returned £580 P&L +£1756Bet 104 Stake £270 Returned £531 P&L +£2017Bet 105 Stake £240 Returned £335 P&L
Amazing how quickly the Totals are updated following a winner -
Yet - it took days, indeed over a week once, when on a losing returns run - with the answer - when queried ...
"I will update when I collect from the betting shops."
PP must have had a quick trip around Manchester.
Amazing how quickly the Totals are updated following a winner -Yet - it took days, indeed over a week once, when on a losing returns run - with the answer - when queried ..."I will update when I collect from the betting shops." PP must have had a qui
this is the one way you have a chance of a profit as has been said not as good as a few years back before they changed the way sp s are retuned . must say after the last two days gord only knows where the op will get her bets on tomorrow
this is the one way you have a chance of a profit as has been said not as good as a few years back before they changed the way sp s are retuned . must say after the last two days gord only knows where the op will get her bets on tomorrow
PennyPincher 24 Jul 15 16:03 I put the bet on in two shops, the thing is they dont return much so they are fine been doing them for years.
£1550 in cash spread between 2 shops ? Sorry, don't believe it.
PennyPincher 24 Jul 15 16:03 I put the bet on in two shops, the thing is they dont return much so they are fine been doing them for years.£1550 in cash spread between 2 shops ? Sorry, don't believe it.
Evee: I don't have these records, I calculate a 'true odds' and then use Kelly to work out a staking plan, I don't do that on here because I work to roughly level stakes on this thread just as a demonstration. I think regardless of race type the results would be the same over time, but I have no proof
from 25 Oct 12:52 postEvee: I don't have these records, I calculate a 'true odds' and then use Kelly to work out a staking plan, I don't do that on here because I work to roughly level stakes on this thread just as a demonstration. I think regardless
My word, first you want me to lose then if I win I dont win. I use kelly, I place the bets to different stakes I put on here. I will put a screen shot of a couple of bets if you like but this really is pathetic.
My word, first you want me to lose then if I win I dont win. I use kelly, I place the bets to different stakes I put on here. I will put a screen shot of a couple of bets if you like but this really is pathetic.
penny pincher very well done a nice profit.. re the boo boys they hate winners/ cause they are losers you have to ride the abuse... been there done that ... keep it up your good very good
penny pincher very well done a nice profit.. re the boo boys they hate winners/ cause they are losers you have to ride the abuse... been there done that ... keep it up your good very good
PP, speaking for myself, It's not a case of not wanting you to win. I'm completely neutral on that. What is of interest is whether you have found a system that actually shows profit long-term.
To really be conclusive about that, you have to go into the fine detail and assess all the pros and cons.
PP, speaking for myself, It's not a case of not wanting you to win. I'm completely neutral on that. What is of interest is whether you have found a system that actually shows profit long-term.To really be conclusive about that, you have to go into th
Facts 27 Oct 15 12:54 PennyPincher 24 Jul 15 16:03 I put the bet on in two shops, the thing is they dont return much so they are fine been doing them for years.
£1550 in cash spread between 2 shops ? Sorry, don't believe it. PennyPincher 27 Oct 15 13:52 2 Shops????
Why are you querying it ? It was your statement !!,
Facts 27 Oct 15 12:54 PennyPincher 24 Jul 15 16:03 I put the bet on in two shops, the thing is they dont return much so they are fine been doing them for years.£1550 in cash spread between 2 shops ? Sorry, don't believe it.PennyPincher 27
No reason to use this forum anymore, due to negative and petty response, from a few on here who think they are the dogs. So it's back to the usual rubbish.,it would have been interesting to see the outcome after 200 bets. Perhaps the gang of three/four can let us see there bets , as they seem to have all the answers.
No reason to use this forum anymore, due to negative and petty response, from a few on here who think they are the dogs. So it's back to the usual rubbish.,it would have been interesting to see the outcome after 200 bets. Perhaps the gang of three/fo
Good luck penny ni what ever you do dont know why the ankers drive the good guys off this forum... toss pots the lot of em.................................................
Good luck penny ni what ever you do dont know why the ankers drive the good guys off this forum... toss pots the lot of em.................................................
PennyPincher 28 Oct 15 10:14 I've decided to stop better things to do. Good Luck All (Well Most)
this is the best thing you could do,trust me.Keep it to yourself and good luck
PennyPincher 28 Oct 15 10:14 I've decided to stop better things to do. Good Luck All (Well Most)this is the best thing you could do,trust me.Keep it to yourself and good luck
Everyone on here knows what to do anyway and swift-tuttle has also given a good tip
So you have nothing to prove,its the lurkers you have to watch da na na naaaaaaaa
Everyone on here knows what to do anyway and swift-tuttle has also given a good tipSo you have nothing to prove,its the lurkers you have to watch da na na naaaaaaaa
This was the bet over 40 years ago - when the SPs of the, potential, Place horses was NOT shortened - as is the case nowadays.
- and Bookies paid 1/4 the odds ALL races - not just handicaps - AND even when the FAV started ODDS ON
Greg_Gory 28 Oct 15 15:27 Keep it to yourself--------------What's new? This was the bet over 40 years ago - when the SPs of the, potential, Place horses was NOT shortened - as is the case nowadays. - and Bookies paid 1/4 the odds ALL races - not ju
This "bully boy" talk is utter nonsense. I feel as though half the posters on this forum suffer from some kind of nervous disposition with the amount of times "bully" is thrown around. If you're not capable of sticking up for yourself, or completely ignoring any detractors then perhaps posting on adult forums isn't for you.
This isn't aimed at Penny, it's more aimed at the people who get offended on her behalf, which I find fairly patronising tbh.
This "bully boy" talk is utter nonsense. I feel as though half the posters on this forum suffer from some kind of nervous disposition with the amount of times "bully" is thrown around. If you're not capable of sticking up for yourself, or completely
This was the only thread I would come on here to read and enjoyed the updates fromPP win or lose...such a shame that another good thread has come to an end and an even bigger shame that another poster has been lost on this forum
This was the only thread I would come on here to read and enjoyed the updates fromPP win or lose...such a shame that another good thread has come to an end and an even bigger shame that another poster has been lost on this forum