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Laying Favourites @ BSP!!!
Laying Favourites @ BSP!!!
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Replies: 1,580
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yes johny, will reply in few mins
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Hi Dave
Nope, dont use RP Whatever happened to Adrian Massey? He seemed a decent bloke and the guy could easily have charged for his ratings as they were good.... I have a extensive database of 10 years results, every possible filter you can imagine, took ages to create but easy to source systems, I'm a numbers man and convinced systems do work, I think if a system starts bad then most people will leave it and try something else wereas if they continue then it will sort itself out - cant do any worse than say Mr Rix  |
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Bespoke database - green with envy here!
 Do you update with a results feed each evening? |
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Its probably not unlike many databases available on the web, I remember looking at flatstats a couple years ago though they do charge - cant have that!!!!
Lets say though it took fecking ages to put together Most folk scoff at systems saying they are p1sh, better to follow form, ok, check the results most days, could they be honest and still make that statement? Its a lottery trying to pick winners. If you can pick winners on a regular basis then well deserved pat on the back!!! From the 10 years results I have a system that is actually 100% though only averages 7 selections per year |
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Had a look at Flatstats and looks as though some 1/2 decent systems might be developed, but looks an expensive option too.
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The normal trouble with systems is that they are back fitted with data to make them profitable with random variables that have no real logic and who's only correlation in the long run turns out to be one generated through a random distribution that eventually returns to the expected value.
10 years data, depending on the number of selections is vast though, anything working over that time scale with hundreds of selections in the sample (at the fav sort of prices you are doing at least) looks bomb proof, there would be very small doubt that it would continue. |
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flatstats 35 per month, not expensive like tipsters but still a tad pricey...
Indeed striding, should continue to do well hopefully..... I think its easier to back winners at the big meetings say chelts and royal ascot and group 1's but not every single day - impossible!!! |
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Next one....
7:15 Leicester - Lady Of Yue 100 Lay Only a LAY if CLEAR FAVOURITE |
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stridingedge 13 Jun 15 17:00
this looks like a stats based system where the form is irrelevant fair play if you've made this work for 10 years good on ya! wd striding...an apprentice poirot in the making |
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well it is clear favourite you numb skull
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Lady of Yue - 3rd
Profit +475.00 +4.75points 5/5 100% SR Long Term hoping the SR will be 79% |
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things can change bondo yfdsc
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well done marko
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monsiuer wazza bien sur
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Final Lay today will be in the 8:45 race
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8:45 Leicester - Beau Mistral 100 Lay
Only a LAY if CLEAR FAVOURITE |
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Stable out of form,but well handicapped and will go on the ground. No bet for me GL
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Stats will never ever beat the form book
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That won easily...........
BSP 3.10 -210 -2.1pts  |
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Totals
Profit +£265.00 +2.65points 5/6 SR 83% |
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marco very well done...one question when you lay if favourite are you referring to sp fav or bsp fav ?
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tightfisted rode that one.
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Interesting thread to read but one obvious question springs to mind for me, you only lay a horse if it is clear favourite, but this piece of information is not known until the race is over, or at least off and running in the case of BSP fav. So when do you strike your bets?
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Just having a gander through this and wish the OP well, will follow with interest.
Grenfel think he said a page or so back that lays are based on ISP clear fav, although agree that this may change on the off from time to time. |
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posy
laying the ISP favourite Grendel Always the ISP fav, usually its obvious but sometimes its close, usually put in the lay a minute before off time or at least knowing i have a few secs to spare if the betting is very tight.... You may get the odd race where its very tight and you might miss out but usually the BSP would point you in the right direction but this thread will only ever cover clear fav at ISP.. |
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Marko69
A couple of questions if you don't mind. If you hit your targets each month then after 12 months you will have withdrawn £822.81, laving you with a profit of £20,000 how much will you pay in premium charge on this and what do you live on or is this something you do part time whilst earning a living elsewhere? |
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didnt work on your old thread, wont work on this thread,tightfisted called it, blind leading the blind.kc lays 1 a day mid range,13 in a row.
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stewarts rise
I dont know the rules regarding premium charge but I'm guessing if you made 20k profit on here then that wouldn't be enough to incur the charge but perhaps my good friend roida could advise on this  I retired a few years ago so this is more of a hobby to me than trying to make a living out of it, I've always said I was a numbers man and try to develop systems - it keeps the mind ticking |
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deadbrain59
25 points profit after 3 months - a failure? You clearly live on a different planet! |
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deadbrain
thats great but how much is KC laying at these mid prices, probably not very much? |
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isp yesterday,kc,7.1 bsp 8.7, in running 2.48 3rd.,hes consistant over the months,i layed hannons yesterday6.15 it romped it ,bad stats but good form7/4.checked my statement last month to now,waste of time,favs,too many hits.gl
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Thanks for your honest reply, think you will probably have to pay a few grand in PC charges out of the profits though dependent on number of bets.
If you do get to your target of £20k after 12 months, will your next lays be for £1000 and so on and isn't it possible that your actual lay bet a minute or two before the start may in some instances push the bsp out to 2nd fav? |
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Thanks for responding.I've tried developing both backing and laying systems via flatstats in the past based on favourites but in the end have had to abandon them because of the occasional disparities between horses starting fav at bsp/isp and of course joint favs. Certainly found it easier laying favs at bsp rather than isp.I'll follow your results with interest.Good luck.
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stewarts, if i'm lucky enough to achieve my target on this thread then i would most likely take out half the profits and start from 10k bank and lays would start at 500, that way my original investment is covered and have a profit of 10k from my efforts, the remaining 10k is profit so dont mind playing with that, as for PC, I'm sure you need to make more than 20k to get hit but will worry about that at a later date if i ever get there
would prob have a max at say 1k lay, if 5 points achievable per month long term then 5k per month would be acceptable for a few mins work each day Even if its 2nd fav BSP, dont matter so long as the ISP is fav |
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kc thread,page 65, tightfisted chart, interesting,2/1 3/1,loss ,up to 16/1 profit
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you're on 20% after 250 markets 'or' when you've won 5k.
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big winners pay 40% , real big winners pay 60%.. thats why liquidity is well down from the day Betfair put this in place
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Hi Marko.
Dont really understand the math on your tread . I.e you are not able to take advantage of the better price on bf or you are not capable of getting winners. Either way its a poor roi as the amount of effort required for one year = -200% |