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For the life of me I do not know why they have entered this poor jumper in the race. For a start it is carrying a weight which does not reflect its downward trending ability at the moment and weight stops trains. In almost every race he has run in he has made a catastrophic mistake as he shows the fences little regard. Ok the bigger fences may (MAY) make him respect them more, but why take the chance with such a lovely horse?
The only conclusion is a last hurrah, a shot at fame. They know it will never be as good as it was so are taking a huge risk putting the horses life on the line in this race. Greedy owner and all concerned and I hope to God that the horse comes back in one piece as it deserves a long and happy retirement. Shame on the Cohen's.
The only conclusion is a last hurrah, a shot at fame. They know it will never be as good as it was so are taking a huge risk putting the horses life on the line in this race. Greedy owner and all concerned and I hope to God that the horse comes back in one piece as it deserves a long and happy retirement. Shame on the Cohen's.
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Agreed. Can't believe Timeform 'expert' was tipping LR for the National, but horses from Graded chases are always given too much weight. Long Run and Tidal Bay are big place lays, but as you say, it may well end in tragedy.
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Or maybe they see it as putting a 'guaranteed' 9yo stayer that has never fallen (1 ur when knackered) in a race you need to jump and stay in and has a chance, when still young and classy enough, to put up a decent show? LR is declining and may well not be good enough in a year so they have decided to aim it at the only other race really worth aiming for (with LR) as it would always find '1 too good' in the Gold Cup? Just giving another viewpoint and prob won't back it mind.
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My point being that the horse will no doubt clout one of those fences, its a certainty, and when it does its 80% chance it takes a crashing fall. Having never fallen before, it won't understand how hard a fall can be, especially in the worlds hardest race. I can't see it getting around those fences, carrying all that weight too!! They should put the pet away and let it live it's life out, after all it owes nobody nothing. Just pure greed is letting this horse take it's chance, has never been the safest jumper.
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the top of fences are easy they go through them, I think the opposite these fences might suit him to a tee as long as gets high enough will think these are the softess fences hes ever challenged, and having never fallen when he makes his mistakes a other big plus , as most horses crumble on landing in national and hes proved he keeps strong feet,deff worth ago any way.
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I don't see why it should end in tragedy more than any other horse running in any race. Never fallen, best current Aintree jockey,been aimed at the race all season and is getting weight from a 13 year old and gives 9lb to Walkon.
I can see why he is fancied and think he will be in first 6 |
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agree with most of these comments, and whatever happens sincerely hope it doesn't end in tragedy, certainly taking a big chance here.
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Can't see how these polystyrene fences are going to cause it more trouble than jumping the stiff Chelthenham fences at championship pace in a gold cup. A decade ago then yes I'd agree but if he can clout a fence at Cheltenham at gold cup pace and get away with it then he can clout one of these fences and get away with it.
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got a good cv for a poor jumper.
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the top of fences are easy they go through them, I think the opposite these fences might suit him to a tee as long as gets high enough will think these are the softess fences hes ever challenged, and having never fallen when he makes his mistakes a other big plus , as most horses crumble on landing in national and hes proved he keeps strong feet,deff worth ago any way.
Had the very same discussion today,fences are his bete noir. |
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"got a good cv for a poor jumper."
Exactly, but fact is he has never been the safest jumper. And the problem with the National is that there are too many horses, which means the riders can't always line the jumps up properly to make a safe jump and landing. But it is certainly a big plus that he has never fallen when making mistakes, but this is different here. Although couldn't have a better jockey to help him here. |
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It boils down to class and Long Run is class ... get on 14/1 is a steal
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It's ok hacking up in the Foxhunters,different game in the National,even with these hurdles!
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long run has a great chance this race has been won by older less classy horses. the way the weights are done the last 6 years being compressed means horses carrying over 11st hav better chance the fences are alot easier. i recon he is a huge bet for this race the cohens are true sportsmen.this talk of greed n other crap complete trolling crap from people hideing behind laptops with no grip on reality
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The conditions of the race have never been as suited to a horse like Long Run. Horses can hit the new polystyrene filled fences and not fall and Bechers Brook doesn't have a drop or a brook any more. Sam Waley-Cohen has the best record around the national fences of any of the jockey riding in Saturdays race. If Sam can steer him around and Long Run's jumping is adequate he might well find his form and be a big player worth a tenner at 16/1.
I would love to see Tidal Bay (16/1) or Balthazar King win (25/1). The former has the burden of age against him the latter has the burden of Richard Johnson. |
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^
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Wow some right idiots on here,"putting the horses life on the line in this race"
Really?Can the same not be said for the other 39 horses participating? Connections should be applauded for having the balls to run him in this race,He is a very good and also very under estimated horse who's never really been given the credit he deserves,i for one hope him and the old rogue tidal bay are fighting it out on the run in. Two fantastic horses. |
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Its very simple to work out why the horse is in the race,if it gets round it wins.end of story.
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agreed-sam waley cohen probably most successful jock in teh race over these fences.
horse has good level of form. nothing to be embarrassed about. wouldn't back him myself tho'. |
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Won't respect the fences, won't get away with errors on these fences, one outcome only. End of.
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Prob to insure that Shaka is IN wiv around 10-3
10-12 last yr .....................  |
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imagine if Tidal bay were to win?,what would we say about the compressed weights then?(should be 50s)
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Long Run's entry is symptomatic of how the conditions of the race has changed - with the course modifications (rightly or wrongly), and a perceived desire for commercial reasons to attract the higher rated horses (the handicapper has admitted to giving them a better chance in recent years, I view this race now more like a normal handicap chase than I used to, and with Long Run's strength always having been staying (his Gold Cup win was in a very fast run race favouring his stamina)this race seems ideal for him.
My own view is this race has changed for the worse, and is now more open to abuse of the handicap system as any horse 'plotted up' and in on a low mark no longer has as great a fear of falling or being brought down by a loose horse |
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mirisoo 04 Apr 14 09:56
Won't respect the fences, won't get away with errors on these fences, one outcome only. End of. ?? Have you watched horses over these new fences? I think he can afford to plough through most of them, they have been designed so as to not present a danger of falling !! |
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As far as I am aware, of the relatively small number of Gold Cup winners who have contested the Grand National you have to go back to 1975 when dual GC winner L'Escargot in receipt of 11lbs beat Red Rum. The only other horse to achieve the feat was Golden Miller, and both he and L'Escargot were beaten at their first attempt at the race.
2 of the Gold Cup winners who tried to win the national in the same year after winning the GC, Alverton and Synchronised, both were fatally injured after falling. |
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Won't respect the fences, won't get away with errors on these fences, one outcome only. End of.
do you mean these fences that have been made so much easier? with 2 foot of spruce on top of them?? imo long run has as much chance of winning as Neptune collonges did |
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The Thinker
The Fellow Master Oats Cool Ground Garrison Savannah came 2nd same year as winning aGC All Gold cup winners who at some stage ran in the National. Ironically and unfortunately The Thinker was killed on the gallops whilst being prepared for the race. |
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Most Gold Cups and grade 1 chases have relatively small number of runners, it will be interesting to see how Long Run copes with the hurly burly of this race with a lot more runners, never mind the fences.
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here's an idea..
Penalty value 1st £561,300.00 2nd £211,100.00 3rd £105,500.00 4th £52,700.00 5th £26,500.00 6th £13,200.00 |
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The thing is with these class horses is they can travel.........their stride/the way they cover the ground.......It wont have 10lb in hand ....like some but should be in the shake up.
U can take the P out of these fences & im shure it will |
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I think that Long run is one of the most likely winners. My main reservation is stable form.
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They cant keep holding em back
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sageform - The Henderson runners were out of form but last week or 2 they have been coming right back to it. Winners and places a plenty or just running well with no fear of fading away.
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The fences are very easy today ..thanks to the RSPCA ..and so they were right ... Long Run will have a great chance ..cause hes all class lump on at 14/1
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Well I never, took a horrid fall, probably the worst of all the runners. Was never ever going to get round, I'm just glad he came back safe and sound.
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