Last resort in my search for discipline.

Keefter, I like the comment "intractable disposition".  It probably sums me up in a nutshell and you are not he first one to give me such a warning. You may be right that eradication of the "fun" bets is not the answer and I may spend some of this weekend reviewing that aspect of my betting history.

HonkyJoe, this thread is an attempt to eliminate what I identified as my "fun" bets as I believed (and still do) that a large proportion of my profit was being given back in this way.  I have not had any such bets since this thread was started, but sadly my profitability has also been eradicated!

How do you distinguish between a fun bet and an, erm, 'non-fun bet'?

whats a fun bet £25

Are those simply bets that rely on something other than your system figures?

Hi Steam. Only if I know or I am told something and then it has to be solid. It is easy to find bets if you look. I know what races I look at and at racecourses I prefer and that means I can get on with my life in between, otherwise it would be endless. I don't bet at this time of year and when I am betting I can usually give a whole weeks possible opportunities in advance.

HonkyJoe and xmoneyx, my habit was to stake normally between £5 and £20 as "fun".  They can arise for any reason; boredom, market moves, forum comment, etc. None though since this thread started.

Expunter there is a lot that doesnt ring true here.  You talk asif this is the worst run you have ever had  which seems highly unlikely .

I think you need audited Expunter! It is very difficult to analise your own betting objectively. You've been doing this full-time since 2006, that is a loooooong time. In the book Outliers , author Malcolm Gladwell says that it takes roughly ten thousand hours of practice to achieve mastery in a field. I reckon you've spent that length of time punting, in theory your only true obstacle is discipline. However, bearing in mind your level of experience watching horseracing and betting on it and watching markets don't be too quick to dismiss your 'fun' bets as a complete waste of time and money. You do develop a sort of sixth sense when it comes to betting. Your initial post says you checked results as far back as mid september? you didnt just start fun bets this year obviously? and they won't all have been losers prior to mid-september. We are Gamblers at the end of the day. Even with an edge the best poker plays in the world his patches where they simply can't win, they call this 'variance'.

StartedOct2000.....I am sorry you feel that way.  My opening post very much stated my aim with this thread.  It may not be the worst run I have had, but I am struggling to remember one.  What benefit would I get from lying?    I have tried to answer most, if not all posts on here, both honestly and courteously. Cheers.

Keefter, you make valid points and as I have already said, I may spend some time reviewing things.  Cheers.

1st post

I am doing this as a last resort to try to instil some discipline in my betting.(consistant losses?)

I am generally able to make a profit from betting(generally--to vague--more losses than wins?)

my problem is that I have too many bets and allow myself to become too easily distracted by such things as market moves,  forum comments, tv pundit remarks, etc.(no strategy?)

I have been on here full time since 2006, probably doing no more than eeking out a living at below minimum wage.(staking to high?)

It's not that I mind so much, it's the time wasted on here in between bets/races, where I could be doing so much more.(gambling is a way of life}

You don't really answer the questions (why should you) and this claim of 70% success rate is very dubious.

You are putting time and effort in to finding bets that could be found by ten minutes reading The Sun(no offenece to readers) and they are losing because they are bad value bets, it has nothing to do with luck.

xmoneyx, if comments are taken out of context,it is relatively easy to make something in print mean anything.  My opening post really does need to be read and interpreted in the round.  I have honestly stated that I am undisciplined and that my profits are largely, but not entirely, returned by way of fun bets meaning that my withdrawals are not as often or as large as I would like.  I believe my strategy to be clear in terms of betting.  Again, I have said that I spend about five hours daily on betting.  I do not consider that to be unreasonable. Cheers

u don't like templegate then

I don't think I did take then out of context

Sorry Steamship, what questions are those?  I don't recall, but apologise if I have forgotten that I did, saying that I have been unlucky.  There was a post from someone else who made a comment to the effect that perhaps I had been a little unlucky.  Perhaps I have, but that is irrelevant in any case.  Cheers.

Hope you can turn it around and prove me wrong Expunter, enjoy the rest of your day.

xmoneyx, what I meant was that by extracting a single sentence, or part thereof, it is easy to interpret said sentence how one sees fit.  Perhaps my choice of phrase was incorrect.  Apologies.
My choice of words to be put in the brackets would be undisciplined, profitable, undisciplined, staking too low, undisciplined; but there would be several ways in which to interpret those particular comments, if not read within the whole post.  Cheers.

Thank you Steamship.  I have no desire to prove anybody wrong.  Please enjoy the rest of your day too.  Cheers.

Last bet for the day, On Tour £100 2.68.

+£160 after comm.  +£23 2/4 on day.  back tomorrow.

-£147 3/8 on week so far.  Bet 1 John Reel £100 2.74.

Expunter - the aim of this thread is to help improve your discipline - unfortunately naming your bets in an open forum (and all the comments that will be forthcoming) adds it own pressure - I concentrate on certain types of races and this has helped me as I simply ignore races that do not fit my profile - as an example, there is only one race today that attracts my interest.

Possibly this type of approach may help but, whatever, you might be best ploughing your own furrow - you have recognised that you have a problem with discipline so act on that and be stronger .....

Very best of luck in the future.

Thank you crepello.  You are right, the pressure in naming bets on the forum has been far greater than I would have imagined.  Pleasingly, my discipline has improved dramatically and I am thinking that I may discontinue posting at the end of the week to see whether or not the self-discipline can be maintained without posting.  Cheers.

-£100 0/1 on day, next bet Golanbrook £100 3.3.

Perhaps a tad lucky there, +£220 after comm, +£130 1/2 on day.

Thinking about giving up already? Even if you think you now have the discipline, what about the profit!? One's nae good without the other!

Shouldn't the target be discipline and a specified profit target before walking away?

Even if you do feel additional pressure putting your bets up on here, well if it's focusing your mind and as a result you're winning, then I would suggest you stick with it!

I take your point George.B and agree that discipline without profit is no good.  My sole aim here was to improve my self-discipline and that has happened.  Whether it will remain for the future, only time will tell.  Whilst posting so regularly has been an interesting experience , it is not one that I would want to continue indefinitely and feel it is worth having a go solo, so to speak, next week.  If I find my self-discipline lapsing, I could of course revive the thread.  Cheers.

Last bet for the day Goal £100 2.76.

Oh well, a disappointing end to the day.  -£100, +£30 1/3 on day.

Expunter - 3 questions to be asked before a betting career is envisaged in my opinion.
What is your bank size, and what is the end product of your betting, and what is timescale for target to be achieved.
Thank you.

You are right RothmanMike.  Those questions should also be asked on a regular basis to ensure one does not lose sight of what one is trying to achieve.
Bet 1.  Pabusar £100 2.44.

So your answer is.........

Sorry RothmanMike, I didn't realise you were asking me those questions, I thought you were giving me advice!  Well, my bank is sufficiently large for this run to continue, perhaps to the end of February next year before I would be getting concerned.  The end product is profitability and enjoyment, both of which I usually derive although both are in somewhat short supply at the moment.  The timescale is I suppose on an ongoing basis.  I do have three or four holidays a year with my family where I do not look at the racing at all.  Cheers.

Rothman Mike do you still run the service from the Cobham office? (Sorry to intrude expunter)

flatcap
04 Dec 13 14:07
Joined:
23 Sep 01
| Topic/replies: 582 | Blogger: flatcap's blog
I will say this again.

Without a clear staking plan it will be nearly impossible to show a profit betting.

I will be very surprised if anyone can make it pay at level stakes.

But good luck Expunter with your disipline




haven't read this thread for a few days but totally concur with this...and not nice to see a bloke doing his nuts

not every wager you have should be your maximum...surely some bets will come, which you have less confidence in and thus carries a lesser stake no?? even the system your using cannot possibly carry maximum confidence on every bet??

when betting short priced horses like you have been, how can you possibly make back the losses with this staking plan of £100 each wager...

sometimes your fun bets as you call them will win at a nice price...if wagering a lesser stake on these selections you would win and then re-build your bank on the back of it...it sounds like, in trying to kerb your discipline you have taken away a life line from your betting

level stakes wagering stinks in my book, obviously each to there own of course, surely though, each wager should be done on its own merits and wouldn't carry the same stake/confidence...some will carry more confidence than others, they have to.

also when on losing runs which you are on now, your stake can drop until your confidence improves but i don't do systems so don't know how confidence works in regards systems

really hope it works out for you expunter... hopefully it turns, but at the odds you are backing at, its going to be tough...3 or 4 holidays a year sounds good...i hope you keep the thread going so we can see how this is subsidized

n1 hc

harry, thanks for your comments, and I do understand where you are coming from.  The reason my bets are £100 level stakes is that the selections are those which are sufficiently ahead on my figures and meet certain criteria.  They all therefore carry the same confidence.  The "fun" bets that I wanted to eliminate are smaller stakes because they did not carry the same confidence.  I do understand that level stakes does not suit everybody but it has worked for me.

I take your point regarding reduced stakes on losing runs and, perhaps with the benefit of hindsight, I could have reduced my stakes.  I did hope that taking a break towards the end of last week would break the sequence, and whilst this week has been better, the poor run continues.  I will certainly review things this weekend and may next week start with reduced stakes.  I know nobody will believe it, but I really cannot remember such a poor run, and although I am not superstitious, I do wonder if me posting has had something to do with it.  LOL.

My only aim with this thread was to improve my self-discipline and, whilst it is only two weeks, that aim has been achieved.  It has, though been an expensive lesson.  I have lost seven points equating to just under £700 and I would not want to continue losing money at that rate for much longer.  I have already said, though, that my bank is sufficient to continue until at least the end of February next year before I would get concerned.

I agree that recovery will take some time with the sort of prices I am backing at, even assuming I manage a rather better strike rate!  Cheers.

You've got the wrong bloke, never been to Cobham.
Milton Keynes in the main for me !
Expunter, not good mate.
Doesnt sound like you have a specific aim, just stumbling from one bet to another, without focus.
Do you even use Excel to monitor your activities.
All part of the discipline required.

RothmanMike, as far as I am concerned my aims are very specific.  Firstly, I want to enjoy what I do, and, in the main I do.  Inevitably there are good times and bad.  The last two weeks have been one of the latter, but thankfully the good times far outweigh the bad.  Secondly, I want to make and retain profits.  I have a specific monthly amount that I want but I am not about to say what that is on a public forum.  Far more often than not, that aim too is met.

I have never considered that I stumble from one bet to another.  Each morning a spreadsheet with my figures is produced after I have input information from the previous days racing.  I examine the spreadsheet and identify what bets I want to have and these are the ones that I do.  My lack of self-discipline has meant that, on far too many occasions, I have supplementary "fun" bets and it is these that I am seeking to eliminate.  Perhaps that could be considered stumbling.  During the last two weeks I have not had one of these bets.  Another of my aims has been to reduce my activities with the lay button.  I did lay off one horse in running (Bocamix).  That loss of self-discipline actually saved me my stake, but I was disappointed in my action because one of my aims was to avoid laying off in running or to lay off at a much lower figure.  I failed in that aim as far as that horse is concerned.  Apart from that time, I have not laid off.  During the last two weeks this has cost me dear, because many of my selections have gone very low in running.  I have however taken all that on the chin and accepted that as part of the learning curve.

I actually run an Apple Mac so use Numbers, a software package broadly similar to Excel.  As a back up I keep a paper based record in case it all goes pear shaped, and, if i am honest, because I am quite old-fashioned and like to see a bit of paper in front of me.  I hope that explains  a bit more clearly.  Cheers.

Expunter
06 Dec 13 16:31
Joined:
17 Jan 04
| Topic/replies: 134 | Blogger: Expunter's blog
harry, thanks for your comments, and I do understand where you are coming from.  The reason my bets are £100 level stakes is that the selections are those which are sufficiently ahead on my figures and meet certain criteria.  They all therefore carry the same confidence.  The "fun" bets that I wanted to eliminate are smaller stakes because they did not carry the same confidence.  I do understand that level stakes does not suit everybody but it has worked for me.





so what is wrong with some small stakes, on a less confident selection...this for me has nothing to do with discipline, this is just normal staking, as long as you aren't over staking the selection...no one would have the same confidence in a 20-1 poke than a horse they fancy at even money

so would a 1.6 shot carry the same confidence as a 3.7 shot?? in your system, it can't can it?? every bet is a different bet...your system must must have a cut off point and these cases are the bets you are trying to cut out, i get that, but surely the system hits a certain points ie 100% 80% 60% chances of winning in your criteria but your next bet is say 100% 92% 88% which would change the confidence no????

every bettor when winning will go through stages of moving there staking up if the bank allows it, and down when the confidence is low... otherwise, when we are doing a nuts, like you are at the moment, we will go skint quick

your second paragraph expunter when you say with hindsight i could of reduced my stake, says a lot about your staking...so means your bets must carry a confidence or what your bank allows you to bet...

i cannot believe your system says that every bet is a 100% in regards stake, it will kill you pal at these odds, unless this lottery machine turns the corner and in which case i'm in for some shares

harry, first thing I ought to say is that it is not a system.  Figures are produced from racing information and I choose the horses I want to back. 

I take on board all you have said about adjusting stakes etc, but really don't want to get into a forum based discussion about the merits or otherwise of level stakes betting.  It is what historically has suited my modus operandi.  Perhaps I will change my views, but it will certainly take more than a two week losing run.  I will certainly, though, look seriously at reducing my stakes next week.   I hope you will understand, as I do appreciate that you are trying to help me and I don't have any desire to cause anyone any offence.

I am now off for my tea which will, I am sure, consist of copious amounts of red wine (whilst i can still afford it!).  Cheers.

so then that must carry confidence??...ah fair play will leave you to it.
it has obviously worked before, will look forward to see how it pans out long term

Expunter, think it would do you well to note and analyse the following before you make your next bet

Posted 24 plays, 7 winners 17 losers of which 8 were 2nd
Current strike rate 29.17%
18/24 of the plays were in races of 7 runners or less
22/24 of the plays were in Class 4 races or worse
14 plays were on horses less than 2/1
7 plays were on horses above 2/1 less than 4/1
2 plays were on horses above 4/1 less than 5/1
1 play was on a horse priced 5/1
3 of the 7 winners were odds on
Longest priced winner was less than 3/1

I have read all your replies and appreciate that you are adamant that this is your worse run of plays in memory, problem is from the facts identified in this small 2 week sample it should be obvious to even the most stubborn of people, which is what you have classed yourself as, that the way you are playing is not plausible if a profit is what you hope to achieve.

You need to revisit your strategy as playing poorly priced horses in poor races will eventually break your bank however healthy you believe it to be at the moment.

The worst trait an ill disciplined punter can have on here is CHECKING THEIR BALANCE EVERY SINGLE DAY ..

The feeling of loss is TWICE as hard to get over as the winning feeling .

COVER THE BALANCE UP and check it after say , 50 bets  . If you cant do that you would be better giving up because for you to keep your head during a bad run is NIL .

GOOD LUCK IN THE HARDEST GAME OF ALL

Good morning, I will not be about for racing today on what would be a busy day.  Off Christmas shopping with the wife but I will post up what bets I would have ordinarily had.

harry c, do you mean the individual selections?  Sorry, not trying to be awkward, just wanted to ensure I understand what you are driving at.  Basically, if the selections are rated ahead by a certain figure of any other horse in the race, it becomes a bet.  Some horses inevitably are further ahead than others and I could adjust my stakes accordingly, but historically I have found level stakes works better for me.  Perhaps my methodology is illogical.

Zealot, I agree entirely with what you say, I am not in the habit of examining my p+l quite so carefully as I have done over the last two weeks.  It doesn't suit me, I have to say.

Cork Langer, thank you for that analysis, which makes interesting reading.  You are not the first person to tell me my choice of horses is wrong, and I am sure you will not be the last.  I think I will persist a while longer with my selections, but I am very mindful of the weight of advice that has been generally trying to dissuade me from continuing in the current vein.

I am stubborn, but not stupid.  Therefore, until after the New Year, I will not be placing any money on the horses that are selected.  In fact, it is my intention not to bet at all until January 2014.  That in itself will be a real test of self-discipline as generally I enjoy the run up to Christmas from a betting perspective.  I will continue to post selections as it will be a useful exercise (in my opinion) to see what would have happened.  I would say; because, as my wife frequently reminds me, I have to have the last word; that I think I should continue a while longer, but I know I am in a minority of one!

Selections for today then:
Muss 12.45 Momkinzain
Ling 1.00 Kodafine
Ling 1.30 Gregori
Ling 2.00 Mr David
Wol 3.10 Lacey
Wol 4.10 Tracks Of My Tears

Cheers.

you seem to be one of the good guys. hope everything works out.

Have a good one Expunter! Punting is out! Be a "Better" when you return!

"In fact, it is my intention not to bet at all until January 2014.  That in itself will be a real test of self-discipline as generally I enjoy the run up to Christmas from a betting perspective."

Thrashing about in quicksand....

Expunter, not sure how you hope to be successful/profitable if you pick and choose when to play on the basis of as and when it suits you, it is an amateurs approach and will only work for you if you are one of life's true luck magnets.
     
Todays 6 selections (seems remarkable for a Monday or anyday come to that, to me) would have resulted in a net loss of 38, you had 2 winners from 6, but because of the average prices, you needed 3 minimum to show any profit.
You have received lots of suggestions and advice about how to go forward, obviously it is your money to do as you please with, but I would recommend you think long and hard about things, as the way you play currently offers you little if any hope of ever turning a consistent profit.

If you retain records of your past plays you would do well to analyse them until your sick of the sight of them as therein lies the answer to how you should be playing, you are convinced you were hitting 70 percent, on the small sample of data we have to date you are struggling to hit even 30 and the prices you are playing at mean a loss is inevitable.                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         
There is little point perfecting discipline, if you are going to continue to play as you are currently as all it will do is delay what everyone has been trying to make you aware of throughout the thread.

sorry but I wont believe the "70%" until I see the spreadsheet

I don't see how a system can work, when all it does is to pick horses that are significantly ahead on points. There has to be some assessment of value as well.

Some of those horses will be clear winners on many systems and stats, and may well be heavily overbet. Others may go under the radar (at least, if your ranking system is both original and effective). You really want to be betting on the below-the-radar horses, as then you'll presumably be getting them at a longer price than they should really be priced up at. Those horses will make you your money. The shorties will just bleed you dry.

I've been following this thread and must say that despite expunter coming across as an intelligent, erudite and courteous chap, I think he's living in dreamland.

You've only got to look at the type of horses and the type of races he is getting involed to realize that his claim of a 70% strike rate on his selections is frankly ridiculous.

Good morning.  Well yesterday would have been another frustrating day with a loss of £35 incurred on paper to BSP.  I shall try to respond to the posts made in my absence in chronological order.  First of all, Boogie Cat and EVILROYSLADE; thank you for your comments which are much appreciated.

Rollo, in the short time I have been posting, I have received much advice almost exclusively pointing out the error of my ways.  I have considered that advise and am now acting upon it.  During the hiatus I will review my past betting history; try to understand what has gone so fundamentally wrong, and then take steps to address the situation.  If that is thrashing about in the quicksand, then so be it.

Cork Langer, your points are well made, and in fact I am broadly doing much of what you suggest between now and the New Year.  Whilst I will continue a while longer to post the selections, no money is being put down.  Ordinarily, if I had been persuing my quest for self-discipline without having started the thread, I am sure I would have continued to place my bets as normal.  The weight of advice on here, has, unusually for me, persuaded me to change my mind.  It will be interesting to see how the selections perform.  Only time will tell.

startedOct2008....as I have stated before, the strike rate is not something I have laboured, quite the opposite in fact.  Quite patently it is not currently anywhere near 70% and looks likely never to challenge that figure.  I wonder what strike rate you would have believed.  Perhaps 40%?  Even that would seem unbelievable given the last two weeks, so I do not blame you for questioning it.  If I were reading another thread long these lines, I would struggle to believe the strike rate.  I would, though,  just ask myself the question,  "What does he have to gain from lying?"

LordBobbin, I understand your point about value and suspect it will be something I look at in some detail over the coming days and weeks.

collywobble, I can understand, from the evidence in front of you, how you would come to the conclusion you have.  I think unless the selections perform considerably better than of late, there is little I could do to persuade you otherwise!

Selections for today, again, no money going down are:
Sth 12.00 Pensax Lad
Fon 12.40 Aldopicgros
Fon 1.10 Beforeall
Utt 2.20 Wintered Well

Cheers.

Good morning.  Well yesterday would have been another frustrating day with a loss of £35 incurred on paper to BSP.  I shall try to respond to the posts made in my absence in chronological order.  First of all, Boogie Cat and EVILROYSLADE; thank you for your comments which are much appreciated.

Rollo, in the short time I have been posting, I have received much advice almost exclusively pointing out the error of my ways.  I have considered that advise and am now acting upon it.  During the hiatus I will review my past betting history; try to understand what has gone so fundamentally wrong, and then take steps to address the situation.  If that is thrashing about in the quicksand, then so be it.

Cork Langer, your points are well made, and in fact I am broadly doing much of what you suggest between now and the New Year.  Whilst I will continue a while longer to post the selections, no money is being put down.  Ordinarily, if I had been persuing my quest for self-discipline without having started the thread, I am sure I would have continued to place my bets as normal.  The weight of advice on here, has, unusually for me, persuaded me to change my mind.  It will be interesting to see how the selections perform.  Only time will tell.

startedOct2008....as I have stated before, the strike rate is not something I have laboured, quite the opposite in fact.  Quite patently it is not currently anywhere near 70% and looks likely never to challenge that figure.  I wonder what strike rate you would have believed.  Perhaps 40%?  Even that would seem unbelievable given the last two weeks, so I do not blame you for questioning it.  If I were reading another thread long these lines, I would struggle to believe the strike rate.  I would, though,  just ask myself the question,  "What does he have to gain from lying?"

LordBobbin, I understand your point about value and suspect it will be something I look at in some detail over the coming days and weeks.

collywobble, I can understand, from the evidence in front of you, how you would come to the conclusion you have.  I think unless the selections perform considerably better than of late, there is little I could do to persuade you otherwise!

Selections for today, again, no money going down are:
Sth 12.00 Pensax Lad
Fon 12.40 Aldopicgros
Fon 1.10 Beforeall
Utt 2.20 Wintered Well

Cheers.

Good morning.  Well yesterday would have been another frustrating day with a loss of £35 incurred on paper to BSP.  I shall try to respond to the posts made in my absence in chronological order.  First of all, Boogie Cat and EVILROYSLADE; thank you for your comments which are much appreciated.

Rollo, in the short time I have been posting, I have received much advice almost exclusively pointing out the error of my ways.  I have considered that advise and am now acting upon it.  During the hiatus I will review my past betting history; try to understand what has gone so fundamentally wrong, and then take steps to address the situation.  If that is thrashing about in the quicksand, then so be it.

Cork Langer, your points are well made, and in fact I am broadly doing much of what you suggest between now and the New Year.  Whilst I will continue a while longer to post the selections, no money is being put down.  Ordinarily, if I had been persuing my quest for self-discipline without having started the thread, I am sure I would have continued to place my bets as normal.  The weight of advice on here, has, unusually for me, persuaded me to change my mind.  It will be interesting to see how the selections perform.  Only time will tell.

startedOct2008....as I have stated before, the strike rate is not something I have laboured, quite the opposite in fact.  Quite patently it is not currently anywhere near 70% and looks likely never to challenge that figure.  I wonder what strike rate you would have believed.  Perhaps 40%?  Even that would seem unbelievable given the last two weeks, so I do not blame you for questioning it.  If I were reading another thread long these lines, I would struggle to believe the strike rate.  I would, though,  just ask myself the question,  "What does he have to gain from lying?"

LordBobbin, I understand your point about value and suspect it will be something I look at in some detail over the coming days and weeks.

collywobble, I can understand, from the evidence in front of you, how you would come to the conclusion you have.  I think unless the selections perform considerably better than of late, there is little I could do to persuade you otherwise!

Selections for today, again, no money going down are:
Sth 12.00 Pensax Lad
Fon 12.40 Aldopicgros
Fon 1.10 Beforeall
Utt 2.20 Wintered Well

Cheers.

Apologies for multiple post.  I have no idea how that happened!

Beforeall is my bet of the day Expunter. Good luck to us.

I hope I have not blessed it with the kiss of death and apologise in advance if that turns out to be the case!

Ran well, another runner up.

Indeed, collywobble, close but no cigar.

Expunter,
You say you are not going to bet at what is usually a good time of year for your betting because of what's happened recently. I don't see why previous results should determine whether or not you have a bet on a race today. All that matters is whether the next race is worth a bet and how much is it worth.

As to having a break to change luck. I fail to see how any punter can convey to horses that they should run faster, because the punter hasn't been betting recently. You could miss winners in December to wait for the harshest part of the winter, when less racing will be on.

I don't like level stake betting, particularly if it includes lots of odds on shots. You could think something at evens is a cert and win £100 then lose it all back on something and nothing in the next race. You need to pile in, on a strong fancy. If you are any good that will be more profitable in the long run, as long as you don't chase if it loses.

your confusing discipline with gambling

http://www.gamcare.org.uk/

Today a fine example of what everyone has been trying to make you take note of, you would have risked 400 stake money, had a 50% strike rate and ended up with a profit of 3.39, surely you accept that is pointless...?

Rollo, I take your points and of course they make great sense.  As I said, if I had not started the thread I am sure I would continue as previously.  My decision to take a break is not to change luck; that would make no sense.  I am doing so in order to examine as closely as possible, why my results have changed so dramatically, and if there is anything I can do to rectify matters.  This will include a review of what information I input on a daily basis amongst other things.  I may be making a mistake in doing so, but I must admit to feeling as though a break would do me good.  I have been quite surprised how pressure filled the forum can be!  Cheers.

I think u have lost the value of money,you over stake

Expunter, I have to say I struggled with your selection of Goal last week. I know you are not keen to dwell on the selection process but how did you arrive at this horse making its chase debut.
At best he is a dodgy if fairly prolific winner recently but how does a chasing debutant become worth a level stake win bet at short odds?

xmoneyx, I did say somewhere in the body of this thread that it may be that I have a gambling problem rather than one of a lack of discipline.  I don't think so though; during the three or four holidays we take a year I do not even think about having a bet.  This would total about two and a half months in total.  We are often away at weekends with family or friends; again, no thoughts of having a bet.  I could continue with other examples, but thank you for your concern in any case.

Cork Langer, in isolation you are of course right.  However, one of the things that has already been suggested on this thread is laying off in running.  I know that I have said this is something I wanted to avoid because of my tendency to lay off far too early if a selection was running well, but it occurs to me that this is something that could be adopted as a strategy.  The difficulty of course, is choosing the right price at which to do this.  Again, this will be one of the areas I am going to look at.

xmoneyx, you may be right.  I know it has a value of course, but great wads of it is not something I covet.  I feel I have enough to keep my family in a comfortable manner, and hope that continues indefinitely.  As to staking; that is, I believe, very much a personal choice.  What suits one will not suit another.

Now We Know, there is much information that is input into a software programme which then throws out a "ranking".  If this is sufficiently ahead of others in the race I choose to bet it or otherwise.  I will not go into what information is input, but it is nothing that would surprise anybody.  Cheers.

Expunter- you started this thread to improve your discipline. To improve your betting, I suggest you consider some of the constructive comments on the thread but close the thread down and quietly get on with things.

Good luck.

there is so much that smells like bull here expunter.

In your opening paragraph you say you will try and give reasons for the bets and then later you say they are bets churned out by a system. How do those 2 things fit together?

You say you have ben doing this since 2006 and average a 70% strike rate and then proceed to post a run of poor value betting shop type bets with a dismal strike rate.

Wasting time on here will not help. You will become committed to the Forum Posts rather than the original plan.(Tail wagging the dog)
A Blog is better to document things and very little aggravational replies.
On the other hand you may enjoy the communication more than the task to hand.

Enough said now back to the 10 year research and No AW betting (or NH).

Brian, you are probably right, I do wish I had started a blog instead as going over the same ground continually is rather troublesome.

startedOct2000..., you are right about the reasoning, I think on my thread debut I perhaps wanted to appear more intelligent than I am.  I have stated several times it is not a system; or more correctly, I do not consider it as such.  A software programme was developed by an acquaintance to enable certain relevant information to be input, digested and a ranking provided.  We did not reinvent the wheel and what is input would surprise nobody. I think maybe we had a slightly different emphasis on what is considered relevant but we would not be alone in having differing views on matters relating to horses. I did not mention the strike rate in my opening post. It is not something that has exercised my mind previously.  I have merely responded honestly to questions put.  Patently it is nowhere near that at the moment and looks unlikely to threaten that figure.

I really cannot think what more I can usefully say to you, other than to apologise profusely that my presence on the forum causes you such offence.

Cheers.

Pinza, I could not agree more.  Cheers.

Expunter,

"My decision to take a break is not to change luck; that would make no sense"

But not long before that....

"I did hope that taking a break towards the end of last week would break the sequence, and whilst this week has been better, the poor run continue".

Good luck with your review. Cork Langer didn't do a Turf, AW & NH breakdown. Maybe you have dipped since the turf ended.

my final post

bet for fun not ruin

Rollo, you are quite right;  I did make that comment.  It is surprising how often an ill-considered phrase comes back to bite you in the bum!  You may be right about the end of the turf season.

Wise words indeed xmoneyx.  Certainly if my selections continue to perform so badly into the New Year , and I can find no underlying reasons, it is something I will seriously consider.  That and/or a complete change of betting strategy.

Cheers and good evening to all.

why change your strategy if it has worked since 2006? Surely  a couple of weeks of poor results shouldnt be enough reason? Just saying.

Prompted by Rollo's comment, some further analysis for you, though it should be noted that we only have 12 days data to work with

              S/R    Laying   Backing
Bumpers 1/2  50.00%  (73.40)  58.93
Chase 3/14   21.43%  336.00  (422.94)
Hurdle 2/7   28.57%  313.00  (348.64)
Flat AW 5/12 41.67%  (44.80)  (31.18)

Overall 11/34 32.35% 530.80  (743.83)

Obviously the strike rates are a lot lower than OP had hoped for or had supposedly previously achieved, the fact that a profit would have been made from laying tells its own story, more worrying though than the loss from backing so far, are the following daily details

Date       S/R  Outlay  Return   Maximum  AvBP
24/11/2013 0/2  200.00 (200.00)   225.15  2.13
25/11/2013 1/1  100.00   85.14     85.14  1.85
26/11/2013 1/5  500.00 (333.78)  1376.43  3.75
27/11/2013 1/2  200.00  174.34    373.67  2.87
28/11/2013 0/2  200.00 (200.00)   320.69  2.60
02/12/2013 0/1  100.00 (100.00)   291.37  3.91
03/12/2013 1/3  300.00  (71.34)   696.26  3.32
04/12/2013 2/4  400.00   18.53    496.65  2.24
05/12/2013 1/3  300.00   17.58    548.68  2.83
06/12/2013 0/1  100.00 (100.00)   136.22  2.36
09/12/2013 2/6  600.00  (37.68)  1394.40  3.32
10/12/2013 2/4  400.00    3.39    659.36  2.65

Totals   11/34 3400.00 (743.82)  6604.03  2.94 

The average Betfair Price that you have been playing at is less than 2/1 overall and under 3/1 on any individual day, with the current strike rate it should be apparent to even a novice that this can only go one way.

You need to address the number of selections you are choosing to play and the stake that you should be playing them at, or introduce some form of ranking for your picks that then automatically dictates to you what stake should be wagered.

but somehow its worked since 2006

Always prepared to give someone the benefit of the doubt, as have most who have contributed to the thread, the facts are there for him in black and white, it is up to him whether or not he acts on them.

Good for you cork langer, you have a better, healthier attitude than me and I admire you for that.   I just cant abide seeing fibbers pulling the wool over people's eyes. At least he admitted to talking bull the 2 times he was called (reasons for bets and having a break for change of luck) He could quite bring himself to admit to the one about the university  .  In the old days of the more populated forum he would have been hung out to dry long before page 9.    My belief is that if he had hit a lucky streak he would be selling the system by now.  His story about the conversation in the pub,  the stats wizard  long since disappeared  etc is an old one that has been used in various forms for years by unscrupulous tipsters. .  He's just too smarmy too.. The clues   are there,  now you decide.

From the opening post -

An example of my lack of discipline:  I have gone back from yesterday to mid-September (I gave up going any further back as it made such depressing reading!) and realised that, in the 12 week period I had generated £5071(after com of 4.5%) from my "serious bets", but that my "fun bets" in that period meant I had only been able to withdraw £550 from my account.

As I said above, I was surprised to read the OP was considering giving up already because this isn't just about discipline reading that paragraph, it's about whether the "fun bets" were really costing him, or did they only become "fun bets" if they lost?
Here he has a a platform to put up his carefully considered / 'system' bets to see if they can produce a profit over a period of time / after several hundred selections.

I am not sure whether I should even try to respond to posts from now on.  I will try to cover the few that were made in my absence, so here goes.

startedsinceOct2000..., at the moment I am honestly hoping that I do not have to change my strategy.  You are right, a couple of weeks bad results should not influence my thinking to such an extent.  However, as I have said quite openly, the weight of opinion on here is firmly saying that I would be wrong to continue in the same vein.  I have taken note of that, and whilst continuing to post the selections that are generated by my figures, I am not putting any money down on them.  I hope and expect that their performance will improve.  Certainly they could not get much worse! I am trying to remember that this thread was started, perhaps quite naively as an exercise in self-discipline.  In that respect, it has succeeded, but it has been a costly lesson, both financially and mentally.

You seem to have decided that I am a liar, and as I have said before, there is little I can do to make you change your mind about me.  In all honesty, I don't know why I should care, but for some strange reason, I do.  It also appears that my courteous manner has rendered me smarmy.  Never before have I been criticised for my good mannners! They do say of course, there is a first time for everything.  I must say calling for me to be hung out to dry seems rather over the top, but hey ho.  Each to their own.

I think if I was to provide any spreadsheet, you would immediately question its veracity.  All I will do is repeat that I have no intention of trying to sell anything to anyone.  Perhaps I could swear some form of solemn oath on the forum.

Cork Langer, thank you for the analysis.  It does not make pleasant reading, and as I have said, I will be reviewing matters in some detail to see how I move forward.

GEORGE.B, I will certainly not be putting up several hundred selections as this thread has become tiresome.  I once again acknowledge I should have done a blog and perhaps it is best that I do that from now on.  Whatever route I take, There will be many on here ready to condemn me.  Again, perhaps I was naive not to forsee the way things have turned out.

Cheers, one and all.

Well done Expunter on a record haul,never thought you could catch so many fish in 1 net,and some really big ones at that.

My own take on your profile is that you simply have no understanding of racing/betting,you are backing horses that you say are top rated on your system when basically many are far from top rated,and many in fact should have been lays,backing short prices is a sure way of ending up skint,having been a bookmaker on course and having had a betting shop I can tell you that most bookmakers love to get the short ones.

Virtually all my transactions on here are lays,probably 95% of them,my key MO is looking at the markets for the shorties ,anything under 2.5,so many of your selection have fallen within my range.and having studied those races I find it impossible to see how you rated so many bad horses top,especially as most of the races a high proportion of the runners hadnt even run,so basically you were guessing,take Leviche for example how the hell could you possibly have top rated a horse in an 8 runner field where 4 of the runners had never run and you selection had been well beaten on turf and was now running on the AW for the 1st time.

And Aldopicgros who had finished 3rd to a horse (Duroble Man) that since been beaten out of sight and was then thrashed at odds of 8/15.

Sorry to be blunt,but unlike the real gentleman that have already contributed to this thread I dont believe your strike rate of 70%,and your knowledge of the formbook is virtually zilch.

I wont wish you g/l because imo you need a lot more than luck.

I would say to fully test what you consider to be "serious bets", to see if they're profitable or not, in this situation which will focus your mind, and to be sure you can differentiate them from what you thought were "fun bets" on reflection, then I'd say you'd need at least a thousand selections. Which sounds a lot but it's 'only' on average around 3 / day for about a year.

And never mind this self-pitying "condemn me" crap, you've started a thread on a public forum and people have responded with their opinions / thoughts, what did you expect?

This thread now heading for Shawshank Redemption territory

Blimey a lot has been said since I last posted on here. You not putting any more up then Expunter?

anyone remember Carley?

I was wondering if it was Windsor Boy. Was Carley the one where the thread said shed died?

I am still here.  I have started a blog today.  I am none of the people mentioned.  I am and have always been Expunter on Betfair.

If the intention of the OP was to cut out the losing fun bets then the answer seems pretty simple.since he was using a rating system (good or bad)he would know his selections first thing,so put bets on by 11am then turn off computer till after racing.

brings back memories of that bloke earlier this year who kept putting his ratings up and changing his filters etc. He also hi jacked loads of other threads and I think got banned.

Sounds like you are thinking of bf_fanatic. I don't think Expunter is in the same (delusional) league of bf_fanatic, he really was exceptional!

that's the one Brian, yes he is one in a million.

The thing that amazes me is how anyone can try to use a system that has unraced horses in a race, and that assumes every jockey in the race is trying to win. As has been said before, it is better to rely on the form of the top horses, all of the others show very irregular patterns.

What happened here?

Move along please.

Is expunter now an EXPUNTER.

He took my advice about wasting time on here
Now has a blog and presumably very little criticsm