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Ludlow 1:00
down the card
Ballyglasheen - vulnerable under double penalty, also interestingly upped to 20f lto
Refer - disappointing after initial win, especially with the jumping at Huntingdon on 2nd start
Aglaophonos - will improve for effort first time out and now got 8lb pull with top one for nk beating, worthy fav here
Big John Cannon - poor todate
Brave Helios - respectable effort fto
Clement - stamina doubts here
Ivanhoe - trainer 0/28 last 3 years NH, watch here
Maxi Mac - 14lb pull for 14l with top one from fto run
Minister of Mayhem - poor todate
Misteray - poor on flat only upto OR46 level
Saint Jerome - 14lb pull for 9l with top one from fto and also 5l in front of Maxi Mac
With all the main form lines reverting around the top one its is easy to see that making Aglaophonos favourite is correct bearing in mine the weight swing here and that he gave the impression he would improve for the fto effort. Whilst the likeliest winner there is no value in the price.
However using some of the same form lines I find there is potentially some value in MAXI MAC even though some way behind the top one fto [14lb pull] and 5l to find with Saint Jerome. Saint Jerome is currently 5/1 ish on here and Maxi Mac is nearer 50/1 [10/1 the places].
Maxi Mac is ex Irish {flat] and infact ran over 5f 3 starts back hence held up in rear to settle fto here, but did show a glimmer until a mistake 3 out put paid to his efforts. If he can be settled further up the pack here has a chance of being on the coattails of those who beat him last time and at the prices worth a chance he can progress even a bit further.
I've backed worst 50/1 shots!
e&oe
down the card
Ballyglasheen - vulnerable under double penalty, also interestingly upped to 20f lto
Refer - disappointing after initial win, especially with the jumping at Huntingdon on 2nd start
Aglaophonos - will improve for effort first time out and now got 8lb pull with top one for nk beating, worthy fav here
Big John Cannon - poor todate
Brave Helios - respectable effort fto
Clement - stamina doubts here
Ivanhoe - trainer 0/28 last 3 years NH, watch here
Maxi Mac - 14lb pull for 14l with top one from fto run
Minister of Mayhem - poor todate
Misteray - poor on flat only upto OR46 level
Saint Jerome - 14lb pull for 9l with top one from fto and also 5l in front of Maxi Mac
| CONCLUSION |
With all the main form lines reverting around the top one its is easy to see that making Aglaophonos favourite is correct bearing in mine the weight swing here and that he gave the impression he would improve for the fto effort. Whilst the likeliest winner there is no value in the price.
However using some of the same form lines I find there is potentially some value in MAXI MAC even though some way behind the top one fto [14lb pull] and 5l to find with Saint Jerome. Saint Jerome is currently 5/1 ish on here and Maxi Mac is nearer 50/1 [10/1 the places].
Maxi Mac is ex Irish {flat] and infact ran over 5f 3 starts back hence held up in rear to settle fto here, but did show a glimmer until a mistake 3 out put paid to his efforts. If he can be settled further up the pack here has a chance of being on the coattails of those who beat him last time and at the prices worth a chance he can progress even a bit further.
I've backed worst 50/1 shots!
e&oe
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Replies: 16
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nice write up delta. maxi mac worse off at the weights today though isnt he? was getting 7lbs from Saint Jerome lto. levels today (not taking into account jockey claims - which remain the same). apologies if ive missed the point
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writing off refer so quickly not such a smart move. I doubt if any other runner in this race today would have finished any closer than the 4th refer did in a better race than this last time at Chepstow. if the first time head gear works I think he may out battle many dubious stayers. well over priced in double digits.
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ADR - same isnt it -- levels less 7lb claimer both times?
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gl keen,
I didnt write it off - it just put me off with its Huntingdon performance, I'm unforgiving.... |
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Delta - @ Ludlow on 9th Oct, Maxi Mac was off 10-5. Ballyglasheen and Saint Jerome were off 10-12.
levels today with Saint Jerome, and getting a stone from Ballyglasheen. so isnt he 7lbs worse off with SJ, and 7lbs better off with Ballyglasheen? my head hurts  |
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10 12 less 7 today - so will carry 10.5 - same as before
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but last time he had 10 5 less 7?
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if someone else could just tell me im being an idiot then i can let this go!
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nice write up but massive stamina probs but good luck
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Let it go ADR, hope you don't play based on weight adjustments...!
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i barely play at all! its just i did take a look at this race last night and got a bit bogged down in it. id love for someone to explain where im missing the point!
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ADR - all the maiden colts and gelding will run at levels in Juv'
use that as your starting point and each win will get a 7lb penalty - hence the top one has a double penalty... |
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thanks for your patience Delta!
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hmm - should have finished circa 5L near to the winner
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Put it down as an allergy to wind...!
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Ludlow Result
09 Oct 2013 2:10 » Racing To School Juvenile Maiden Hurdle (Class 4) (3yo) 2m Good 9 hdles £3,898.80, £1,144.80, £572.40, £286.20 WATCH RACE - 25p RESULT RATE RACE Show all comments in running Show all pedigrees HORSE/SP AGE WGT TRAINER/JOCKEY OR TS RPR « 1 Ballyglasheen (IRE) 4/1 3 10-12 Evan Williams — * * » Paul Moloney « 2 ½ Raven's Tower (USA) 9/2 3 10-12 Ben Pauling — * * » David Bass « 3 9 Saint Jerome (IRE) 11/4 3 10-12 Jamie Osborne — * * Jack Doyle « 4 5 Maxi Mac (IRE) 66/1 3 10-5 Trevor Wall — * * all the first three won next time out - the 4th finished tailed off last ....  |