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Punternumberfive
06 Aug 13 20:14
Joined:
Date Joined: 08 Feb 08
| Topic/replies: 12,831 | Blogger: Punternumberfive's blog
Is it possible to make a living laying horses? Mathematically?
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Report TheJudge August 6, 2013 8:20 PM BST
it is a mathematical certainty yes
Report Scamp the man August 6, 2013 8:21 PM BST
Laugh
Report tips August 6, 2013 8:28 PM BST
can not be doneSad
Report Punternumberfive August 6, 2013 8:31 PM BST
Thanks for the genuine replies, I know I sound stupid but this is a serious question.

tips, care to elaborate?
Report tinytuco August 6, 2013 8:31 PM BST
Depends what's between your ears
Report duncan idaho August 6, 2013 8:33 PM BST
if you can lay all the loosers, the maths will take care of itself
Report onlooker August 6, 2013 8:35 PM BST
That is what siralex is asking on his  - similar - thread - Lower down...

'Serious question re laying' - siralex
-----------
Report Ivor August 6, 2013 8:45 PM BST
tinytuco knows the answer!
Report thegiggilo August 6, 2013 8:48 PM BST
Ask the solar spirit layers!CoolShocked
Report saddo August 6, 2013 8:49 PM BST
What a price that was.
Report rcing August 6, 2013 8:50 PM BST
if you want to make a living from betfair , you dont need to restrict yourself to laying .

back
lay
lay to back
back to lay
trade
green up
play the betfair game

to make a living you just want to earn money , however you go about it doesn't really matter so long as you are earning imo


Plain
Report tinytuco August 6, 2013 8:53 PM BST
As rcing says lots of opportunities...

Nobody will tell you how they do it - it's up to you and you alone to find your edge.

Nobody gives away their secrets.
Report brain dead jockeys August 6, 2013 8:56 PM BST
has anyone started a thread about this before?
Report NorwichRob August 6, 2013 9:10 PM BST
Mathematically it's helpful to be laying at a shorter price than the chance of paying up, and have a long term approach with a solid system imo.
Report Ivor August 6, 2013 9:11 PM BST
Never 'bdj' - NEVER before has such a topic been raised in these fora - a revelation imho Grin
Report thegiggilo August 6, 2013 9:11 PM BST
I mean't to reply to your email saddo but accidentally deleted some how probably replying to someone with a KABBBBOOOMM getting carried away!Blush
Report yeahyeahwhatever August 6, 2013 9:26 PM BST
well at the risk of stating the bleedin obvious, it's all down to your selections.

Laying is so often a few small steps forward and then one giant step backwards.
Report OliasOfSunhillow August 7, 2013 6:51 AM BST
Yes its possible but first one must define 'living'. Even a modest living will require a reasonable sized bank to allow lay stakes to be big enough to generate a 'living'. With regard to strategy a previous poster is correct. No one is going to say 'hey simply do A,B and C and you will make a living'. One thing I would say is that many people have unrealistic hopes with regard to returns or ROI%. With laying your RO on turnover will be lower when compared to a successful backer and as another poster mentioned there are large periods of going nowhere due to many small steps forward and one or two big leaps back. If you have not back tested a strategy and found it to be profitable after commission and to a statistical degree of confidence then don't play around with it, but then this go's for anything in the world of betting.
Report Facts August 7, 2013 10:48 AM BST
No
Report Do wah Diddy August 7, 2013 11:18 AM BST
YES IF YOUR A BOOKMAKER
Report Do wah Diddy August 7, 2013 11:20 AM BST
READ THE QUESTION FIRST  PROPERLY THEN ANSWER THE QUESTION ,
Report swift-tuttle August 7, 2013 11:31 AM BST
yes
Report Ballydoyle August 7, 2013 11:38 AM BST
Amazing that people ask this question...walk down your high street and tell me what you see
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 11:40 AM BST
Lots of Charity Shops and vacant properties :(
Report TELL DEL August 7, 2013 11:43 AM BST
"many small steps forward and one or two big leaps back."

very true !  certainly knock you back when you hit a live one,  you would also need the right temperamnet and patience for the job, and be realistic with your expected returns, but making any sort of living out of it I would say difficult but possible.

You need to do your homework before you commit, have a strategy, and then rigorously stick to a game plan, and that dreaded word 'discipline'

So yeah, mathematically I suppose it would be possible....although I haven't achieved it yet.......
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 12:07 PM BST
Mine Yesterday:
21/24 correct : 87.5% (worse than expected)
ROI : 3.2% (rubbish = poor day = worse than expected)
Average risk : 0.57% of bank (worse than expected)

Bank growth +0.44% (which is more than enough)
Report swift-tuttle August 7, 2013 12:16 PM BST
ivor

over the years I've seen these daily reports of yours now and again

they always seem to finish with a bank growth of a positive figure

do you never have a losing day?
Report FrankRA August 7, 2013 12:27 PM BST
You need to put in a lot of hard work ,reading the form ,watching the races several times,making notes ie a notebook,try to specialize in a certain category,as there is far too much racing to keep on top of all the racing.

There are a number of stumbling blocks which is why most punters fail ,one is actually being able to read the formbook properly,also being able to raceread is by far the most important skill needed,you only have to listen to various pundits on their respective racing channels to realize that some of them are not worth listening to,in fact eventually you should not need to listen to any of them,you should be able to make £500 per week with a £2k bank,the key is not to lay anything over 2.5 the shorter the better and not to lay for large liabilities.


Having said all that you wont have a cat in hells chance if you dont have DISCIPLINE.GL
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 12:28 PM BST
Yes - I expect (and get) 4 losing days per year.. I have had two losing days so far this year Thu. March 21st and Fri. May 24th.
Report swift-tuttle August 7, 2013 12:39 PM BST
so, you chase intentionally to prevent a losing day until you reach a limit?
Report TRD.Racing August 7, 2013 12:47 PM BST
ivor has been spouting the same old rolloxs on here for years.

The guy who used to be on here,Andrew I think his name was,a part time music teacher,fell victim to Ivor
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 12:58 PM BST
Swift - it's more a case of achieving earlier in the day then only risking small parts of existing profit later in the day.
+0.1% on the dogs so far today and break now until racing starts.
Ten years and 50,000 bets done now TRD... I'll be a £millionaire by December 2018 - will you?
Report NorwichRob August 7, 2013 1:22 PM BST
Ivor - for your two losing days, what % of bank loss & how many days to recoup?
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 1:42 PM BST
The first was -1.24%, the second -2.85%. I'm always aiming for a point 28 days ahead so it takes a few weeks to recover and start to get back on track.
Report NorwichRob August 7, 2013 1:55 PM BST
Cheers Ivor, 2.85% seems a low figure if that's as bad as it gets 4 times per year, with your gains as per yesterday, nice work!
Report Happy Valley August 7, 2013 2:01 PM BST
it didn't do Catherine the Great much good. Ho ho.
Report Ballydoyle August 7, 2013 2:14 PM BST
4 losing days a yearLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Ballydoyle August 7, 2013 2:15 PM BST
Ok Ivor...heres a challenge. For the rest of the month put up your lays and lets see if you are as good as you say....
Report yeahyeahwhatever August 7, 2013 2:27 PM BST
excellent suggestion Ballydoyle... c'mon Ivor, we're all counting on you
Report TRD.Racing August 7, 2013 2:32 PM BST
Please don't get sucked in anyone
Report Ballydoyle August 7, 2013 2:33 PM BST
Sucked in? No. Exposure? Most definitely
Report tinytuco August 7, 2013 2:36 PM BST
Never go full retard.
Report geoff m August 7, 2013 2:42 PM BST
depends what price you lay em at
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 2:43 PM BST
Now why on earth do you think I'd be willing to sit here all day posting selections for your amusement? I don't need you and have far better ways of spending my time! (bank +0.179% so far today)
Report tinytuco August 7, 2013 2:45 PM BST
No, you just pluck out random percentages for our amusement instead.
Report artie August 7, 2013 3:07 PM BST
To make money laying,it's best to be laying at SP or less.A difficult proposition.Backing at  above SP,is much easier.
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 3:14 PM BST
ten days from 28th.July inc.tinytuco..
0.54
0.49
0.53
1.15
0.46
0.31
0.46
0.60
0.55
0.44

Name any date you like, I have the figure - your cynicism changes nothing tt.
Report Ballydoyle August 7, 2013 3:18 PM BST
Have to LAUGHLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report TRD.Racing August 7, 2013 3:26 PM BST
Ivor do you remember Andrew. Do you remember he did his bolloxs following your lays
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 3:27 PM BST
I do TRD.. and he placed the bets himself with FAR to great a %age. I don't get 100% correct - do you?
Report TRD.Racing August 7, 2013 3:32 PM BST
Sadly,of course I don't. Your figures above would mean you would have to be playing with a pretty big bank to make it worth while
Report tinytuco August 7, 2013 3:37 PM BST
What do those numbers prove?

Apart from a vivid imagination?
Report jollie August 7, 2013 3:40 PM BST
if you know enough ....yes

if you no fook all , or mostly nuttin , youll struggle a fair old bit
Report buzzer August 7, 2013 3:44 PM BST
geoff m
07 Aug 13 14:42
Joined:
23 Feb 03
| Topic/replies: 4,628 | Blogger: geoff m's blog
depends what price you lay em at


this is all that matters just the same as backing. If you're essentially beating the overround you'll win, as long as your staking plan is sound.
Report Ivor August 7, 2013 3:45 PM BST
I do have a relatively large bank I guess, but not always so and the result of more than ten years of hard labour!
I'm now in the fortunate position of enough cash and assets to not even need a pension - private or state. I don't NEED any income so not under the pressure of those here that HAVE to win. I could lose the whole betting bank and not blink. Drifting FAR from the OP question now though and my principle point remains the same.. risk more when you are more likely to be correct but always risk only very small proportions of bank - growing with great patience.
I didn't want Andrew, or anyone, to lose money TRD.. I deeply regret that but I'm sure he's fine now. However very many have to lose or Betfair has no business and none of us would be here!
I'm now OUT of this thread (bank +0.2439%)- but good luck to all of you however you choose to go about it and live your respective lives! Happy
Report buzzer August 7, 2013 3:50 PM BST
Did Andrew/shrubbery get banned from the forum?
Report tinytuco August 7, 2013 3:51 PM BST
Main Entry:     delude
Part of Speech:     verb
Definition:     deceive, fool
Synonyms:     beguile, betray, bluff, caboodle, cheat, con, cozen, disinform, do a number on, double-cross, dupe*, gull, hoax*, hoodwink*, illude, impose on, jive, juggle, lead up garden path, misguide, mislead, mousetrap, outfox, play trick on, snow*, string along, sucker, take in, trick
Report lmfao August 7, 2013 3:58 PM BST
deluded


tinytucoCool
Report Ballydoyle August 7, 2013 4:08 PM BST
4 LOSING DAYS A YEARLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaughLaugh
Report Ballydoyle August 7, 2013 4:09 PM BST
That's shocking Ivor...how come you lose so much?? I only have one losing day a year. If you need tips give me a shout
Report swift-tuttle August 7, 2013 4:23 PM BST
I know it sounds improbable but his posts have a ring of truth about them to me

for example what if his typical bet was lay at 80.0, back (in-running if necessary) 90.0
Report NorwichRob August 7, 2013 4:29 PM BST
Perhaps a scalper?
Report NorwichRob August 7, 2013 4:31 PM BST
Oops swift!
Report mkwai March 18, 2017 8:53 AM GMT
Bookmakers do it EVERY day either online or at the track ...
Report deadbrain59 March 18, 2017 9:24 AM GMT
feb 28th 1/10 lost ,ch douvan1/4 lost
Report posy March 18, 2017 9:28 AM GMT
deadbrain is correct in as much as long term profits can certainly be made by generally laying odds on shots to win and in specific non handicap races place laying.
Report sageform March 18, 2017 10:10 AM GMT
I was about to say, what do you think that bookmakers have been doing for 200 years?
Report Gaze733 March 18, 2017 12:12 PM GMT
Of course bookies win by laying when they have overround on their side. Imagine if you didn't have to pay commission and instead got and extra +10% on your winning bets.
Report RothmanMike March 18, 2017 12:13 PM GMT
Think you'll find bookmakers would go out of business if they relied solely on "making a book",so what they were doing for 200 years really doesn't apply nowadays.
Without the machines in the shops most would go to the wall,in my opinion.
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