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My Feeling is he'll go for First Lieutenant 14/1 with VC. Young improving chaser ran a cracker in The Lexus. Reckon Sir Des Champs and Silvinaco bit of a moribund price. Though Silvinaco Conti at 7/1 would hold some appeal as an Apost..but if i were doing the column First Lieutenant fits the bill with room for price contraction and a realistic prospect of still further improvement.
What would you put up?
What would you put up?
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Replies: 124
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who cares what he puts up
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Quite a lot of punters and bookmakers my friend..Multimillion pound industry and TS always has a significant impact on the market and BTW he s quite good .check his career record. Besides the question was ..what would you put up in the headlines?
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bobs worth all the way
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Sure Cracker .Agree Bobs much most likely winner..3/1 about right a the moment..but from an angle of odds you cant really put that up now with 2 over months to go..Nice if you already have a decent voucher in your pocket. has almost perfect profile with solid form to boot and at Cheltenham, but we're looking for a decnt odds poke. Grand Crus probably wont be winning but you might make a case at 33/1
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pw is crap and i wouldent waste my time following it his
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and what do you base that thoughtful analysis on audi1...lost on his last 3 selections and spat your lollipop out. Or is it based on a careful review on 10 years profit every year..But the question is Audi..what would you put up?
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I will play along Nightfly. I think you may be right with First Lieutenant but hasn't he always liked Captain Chris. In his position I would put up Flemenstar
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Pricewise is totally anti-punter, and does not exist to make those betting on it money.
First Lieutenant won't see out the longer trip - it's not really getting home over three, imho... |
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Not sure what you are looking at but his ante-post selections, particularly Cheltenham are consistently useless. Bookmakers must love them. Not always his fault because by the time he does his piece in some cases the value has long since disappeared - Bobs Worth was value after he crossed the line in the RSA.
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^^ The selections are not being offered because he thinks they are value bets, they are being offered because the Racing Post wants the not that bright to buy copies of its 'newspaper' on otherwise quiet days...
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I think he will put up Sir Des Champs at 7/1
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sir des champs 6-1 with almost all the firms ,so thats the one
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Not an attractive race to be seeking value imo. There's a very good fave at skinny odds that will most likely win, then several others competing for two places.
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The only value I can see is The Giant Bolster at 25-1 each way. Heard that the jockey on Sir Des Champs was livid at being told to hold him up in The Lexus and will ride him more prominently in his next race. If that works he should be right on the premises but not much slack in the price at 6s. Bobs Worth the most likely winner but 3s nothing to shout about 2 months away, Long Run doesn't look good enough at 7s, Flemenstar a very doubtful stayer whatever the price and ditto First Lieutenant, who would take a lot of beating in The Ryanair but who's last 3 runs show he doesn't stay the Gold Cup distance and 2 miles 5 furlongs round Cheltenham, the distance over which he beat Rock On Ruby as a novice hurdler, should be ideal. The Giant Bolster already has a 2nd in the Gold Cup to his name and should be ideally suited to the demands of the race in March.
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Can't see Long Run out the first three myself hope to god he does not tip it would like it to still be a decent price near the race.
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i'd rather have long run at 7-1 right now
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elsie i have backed it but being greedy i might go again later but you know what will happen if he tips it.
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That's interesting about Russell, Booster. I knew he'd said he held it too far off the pace, but not that it was Mullins' fault. Think we'll see a better horse come Cheltenham in March.
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two stats turn me against both The Giant Bolster and Long Run. I can't remember the numbers exactly but horses that placed in the previous seasons Gold Cup have an absolutely abysmal record the following season and make a massive loss. The stats were terrible when I last looked and they have gotten worse since then. This alone would make me dismiss both horses.
Long Run also has to try and become only the second horse to regain the Gold Cup after losing it. The only horse to do it is of course the mighty Kauto Star. Some might say 'well at least it has been done' but my argument is that it takes an absolute legend to do it and even he did not face a field as strong as Long Run is set to face with SC, SDC, FL, BW, Flemenstar et al. Wish I had got some of the 40+ that was matched on Flemenstar, still think he can do it but I wouldn't be betting ante post at 16/17 given he might not turn up. The rest look about right and Sir Des Champs would be my idea of a solid ante post bet at 7.8. He is very unlikely to run in any other race at the festival and will probably be in the first two in the betting on the day. Already twice a Festival winner, which gives an edge over the likes of Silviniaco Conti, he will surely be very popular on the day and if the Irish are holding plenty of punting tokens they might pile on (unless Flemenstar is running and they punt him) |
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WILL DEFINITELY PUT UP SIR DES CHAMPS
 GET THE PRICES SECURED NOW!!! |
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I agree with most of your comments and i dont claim to be an expert but i do usually make good money at most cheltenham festivals its all well and good tying to find a big price value bet to beat a horse which for me as everything in his favour and the best profile for a potential great since kauto star or denman at there very best and fittest bobs worth will win and easy so bite the bullet and be on a 3 to 1 winner
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could be BSB
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maybe but can you see that winning i know he has to tip something at value but its eachway value i fancy old pw at his best would have tippe3d bobsworth before it had run at big odds i just dont think hes that good anymore i was his biggest fan and he made me lots of cash in 2012 jan, feb, march, all massive months, i want them days back
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Long Run's Gold Cup was similarly open and the first four in the betting were 7/2, 4/1, 5/1 and 8/1.
So let us assume that Bob's Worth remains around 3/1, and Sir Des Champs and Silviniaco Conti come in a point or two. I do not see much reason to lump on ante-post at this stage, unless you already fancy one. Sir Tom does like Mullins horses, though, so SDC would not be that surprising a tip, aside from the price looking about right already, and his jumping can be a bit sticky. The Giant Bolster could be the tip. Young (only eight) and second last year. But again, he makes a lot of mistakes and may have been wrong in the King George. Everything else has a choice of targets. |
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I like BSB but according to his trainer his participation in Gold Cup is dependent on his performance in Peter Marsh Chase.
Doubt Segal will want to pick a doubtful starter - especially after tipping SE antepost for King George. The other thing that disturbs me with BSB is seem to recall he was pulled out of RSA last year on account of the ground (it was officially good!) so they must think he needs plenty of give. Really,really like the horse but he's one for on the day imo. |
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I cannot remember what he went for AP last year in Gold Cup I know he got Synchronised on the day.
He went for the ill fated Pride of Dulcote the year before and Imperial Commander at 16-1 the year he won. |
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think he may put up flemenstar ,the way the horse traveled in the lexus it looked all over before the last may be he went to early on desperate ground and on better i.e good to soft at the festival if they can hold onto him for longer and produce him later he could well get the trip only run out of it in the last 100yds in lexus and impovement likely ,if he wins the hennessey his price will collapse 16s now on here fair imo.
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I like Flemenstar too but will only bet when confirmed and that includes all the others... I mean if Casey says 'it's the Gold Cup' his price is going to shorten and others will have to lengthen as a result
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yeah judo i have backed him for the cc at big odds and green now, but think if he goes gold cup he has a serious chance and he may improve a lot for better ground have took some of the 16 for gold cup
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id expect him to put up tidal bay,on basis that bobs worth looks good.tidal has a chance on soft ground and if it comes up better ground it wont run
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^ is anyone betting NRNB yet?
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Yes Bet Victor non runner money back to place on same days racing.
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Flemenstar a great horse best chaser in training bar SS but he don't stay
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he might on good round though
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Howdi, Flemenstar a great horse dont think great yet? Beaten by Tidal Bay and FL, they maybe make makes Bobs Worth look great? A great horse was Kauto Star with numerous Grade 1 victories, Flemenstar got long way to go yet.
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I never ceased to be amazed by the fact that people want to follow exactly what everyone else is following. The job of PW is to sell papers and if Mr Segal had any sense he would walk and set up on his own, but of course thats a different game altogether to the cosy job of jounalist tipping
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zzzzzzzzzz....blocked
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ps you and millhouse really should have a night out together....i have no doubt the World will have been sorted by daybreak
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Duncan, if any comments I make touch a nerve at all, then great, imo...
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