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06 Dec 12 21:27
Date Joined: 14 Oct 05
| Topic/replies: 12,906 | Blogger: Diamond_Joe_Quimby's blog
Give us the secrets Mischief
Pause Switch to Standard View What factors do you use to find...
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Report duncan idaho December 6, 2012 10:11 PM GMT
weight Wink
Report Facts December 6, 2012 10:13 PM GMT
racecourse grade
class of race
form - esp.recent winning form
course winner
days since last run
race distance
Report Apologist December 6, 2012 10:14 PM GMT
Going, draw, trainer, jockey.

Sadly form is now the last thing I look at.

And on the AW. Jockey, trainer, draw, price.
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby December 6, 2012 10:35 PM GMT
How can someone objectively use weights, and marks to pick something?

Take the low grade Handicaps, its common to see 20+ runner maidens winning handicaps

50% seem to be won by horses who are unexposed, 50% with no recent form and 50+ runs to their names Laugh
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby December 6, 2012 10:37 PM GMT
form - esp.recent winning form

Its incredible to note that the vast majority of recent A/W have only won once in the calender year on that surface
Report onlooker December 6, 2012 10:38 PM GMT
Report Barton Bank December 6, 2012 10:41 PM GMT
Potential for improvement based largely on pedigree and trainer methods would be top.
Also strength of form
Pace angles
Suitablility of ground and distance
Stable form
Overall profile of horse (e.g absences)
Jockey bookings
Report zilzal1 December 6, 2012 10:47 PM GMT
Agree with Bartons top answer

Id say paying attention to form figs like 10,20,30 working on the basis that if there is a valid reason for a bad last run then there is a strong possibility of a high value bet
Report misslimerick85 December 6, 2012 10:49 PM GMT
ones that are stopped for 5 or 6 runs to get below last winning mark Wink
Report roadrunner46 December 6, 2012 10:52 PM GMT
Thats for me to know and you to find out. ;)
Report misslimerick85 December 6, 2012 10:57 PM GMT
beep beep
Report misslimerick85 December 6, 2012 11:00 PM GMT
Video     04Dec12       Fol 23Sft C4HcH 2K     11-2     PU/7 (Who Owns Me 11-5) p 6/1     A P McCoy     105     *     *
Video     30Oct12       Tau 25Gd C4HcH 2K     11-8     12/16 (73L Cinevator 11-7) v 8/1     A P McCoy     107     *     *
Video     24Oct12       Fon 23Sft C4HcH 2K     11-6     1/7 (3L Inner Steel 11-12) v 4/7F     A P McCoy     94     *     *
Video     18Oct12       Wcn 22GS C5HcH 1K     11-4     1/10 (6L Little Eaglet 11-5) v1 5/4F     A P McCoy     87     *     *
Video     22Aug12       Nab 22Gd C5HcH 2K     11-7     9/14 (27L On The Bridge 12-0) p 9/1     A P McCoy     90     *     *
Video     15Jul12       Str 19Gd C4HcH 2K     10-10     5/15 (34L Bobowen 11-2) 20/1     Maurice Linehan     92     *     *
Video     23May12       Wor 20Gd C5HcH 1K     11-9     PU/17 (Themanfromfraam 10-10) p 100/30F     A P McCoy     92     *     *
Video     22Mar12       Fon 23Gd C4HcH 2K     9-12     6/9 (28L Marie Deja La 10-0) p 4/1     Brendan Powell     92     *     *
Video     26Feb12       Tow 24GS C5HcH 1K     11-7     10/18 (66L Manadam 11-2) p 7/2F     A P McCoy     95     *     *
Video     27Nov11       Lei 21GF C4HcH 3K     9-10     7/9 (64L Simonside 10-8) 33/1     Brendan Powell     97     *     *
Video     17Nov11       Wcn 20GS C4HcH 2K     11-0     8/12 (22L Swift Chap 11-10) 50/1     Brendan Powell     100     *     *
Video     01Nov11       Exe 24Gd C4HcH 2K     11-2     13/14 (83L Gunna Be A Devil 11-9) 33/1     Richie McLernon     105     *     *
Video     08Oct11       Chp 20Gd C3HcH 5K     10-6     9/11 (81L Gambo 10-5) p 10/1     Richie McLernon     105     *     *
Video     04Sep11       Fon 23GS C4HcH 2K     10-7     1/6 (3L Winning Show 9-9) p 5/4F     A P McCoy     90     *     *
Report misslimerick85 December 6, 2012 11:00 PM GMT
well handicapped horse
Report misslimerick85 December 6, 2012 11:04 PM GMT
Video     07Nov12       Chp 17Sft C4HcCh 3K     11-7     PU/6 (Anay Turge 10-7) 33/1     Dougie Costello     112     *     *
Video     21Oct12       Kem 16Gd C4HcCh 3K     11-4     PU/12 (Lucy's Legend 11-1) 7/1     A P McCoy     112     *     *
Video     10Sep12       Nab 17Gd C4HcH 3K     11-12     7/10 (45L Changing The Guard 11-12) 14/1     A P McCoy     115     *     *
Video     27Jul12       Sth 16GF C4HcH 2K     11-12     7/10 (63L Tamarillo Grove 10-4) 15/2     A P McCoy     115     *     *
Video     10Jun12       Wor 23Gd C3NvHcCh 7K     11-10     5/6 (36L Miss Saffron 10-6) 100/30     A P McCoy     115     *     *
Video     31May12       Wet 20GS C4HcH 2K     11-4     1/10 (2¾L Leath Acra Mor 11-7) 15/8F     A P McCoy     104     *     *
Video     25May12       Tow 20GF C4HcCh 2K     11-6     1/4 (4½L Doctor Ric 10-13) 10/11F     A P McCoy     104     *     *
Video     21May12       Nab 22GF C5NvHcCh 3K     11-12     1/8 (3¾L Miss Saffron 11-7) 9/4J     A P McCoy     97     *     *
Video     22Apr12       Wcn 16Gd C4HcH 2K     11-5     UR/13 (Diamond's Return 10-8) 12/1     Maurice Linehan     104     *     *
Video     12Dec11       Fak 16Gd C4HcH 2K     11-12     5/8 (39L Black Dragon 9-13) 8/11F     A P McCoy     105     *     *
Video     01Dec11       Lei 16Gd C5HcH 2K     11-12     1/7 (1L Edgebury 10-9) 3/1     A P McCoy     100     *     *
Video     08Nov11       Lin 17GS C4HcH 2K     11-7     11/12 (49L Manshoor 11-3) 16/1     Richie McLernon     105     *     *
Video     01Aug11       Nab 17GF C4HcCh 3K     11-0     PU/9 (Dean's Grange 11-5) 5/1     A P McCoy     100     *     *
Video     17Jul11       Str 18Gd C4NvHcCh 3K     11-5     6/7 (53L Le Corvee 11-11) 100/30F     Richie McLernon     103     *     *
Video     26Jun11       Utt 16Gd C4HcCh 3K     11-12     5/8 (40L Carleton Place 11-3) 13/8F     A P McCoy     107     *     *
Video     08May11       Wor 16Gd C4HcCh 2K     11-12     5/8 (19½L Sky Calling 10-12) 5/1     A P McCoy     110     *     *
Video     01Apr11       Str 18Gd C4NvHcCh 3K     11-11     4/6 (22L Marley Roca 11-6) 9/2     A P McCoy     112     *     *
Video     14Mar11       Str 18Gd C4NvHcCh 3K     11-9     3/6 (54L Up To The Mark 11-2) 6/1     Richie McLernon     115     *     *
Video     02Feb11       Lei 21Hy C3HcH 3K     11-8     12/14 (113L Daring Origyn 11-8) 9/1     A P McCoy     115     *     *
Video     01Jan11       Fak 20Sft C3HcH 5K     10-9     3/12 (11L I'Ve Been Framed 11-9) 9/2     Gerald Quinn     115     *     *
Video     05Nov10       Fon 20GS C4HcH 2K     11-2     1/10 (5L Lepido 11-3) 11/10F     A P McCoy     99     *     *
Video     31Oct10       Hun 17GS C5HcH 2K     11-9     1/10 (3½L Carrig An Uisce 11-12) 2/5F     A P McCoy     92     *
Report misslimerick85 December 6, 2012 11:05 PM GMT
award winner and amuse see the pattern???
Report doantwin2easy December 6, 2012 11:32 PM GMT
So many factors, many of which has been mentioned.

A particularly useful one for me is how many winners / places have come out of their recent races (look for distance beat by useful yardsticks that have come out and won or placed). A horse beaten 3 lengths by a useful yardstick over 7f could often find three lengths stepping up in trip if suited by it).

The RP now publish the specific win / place subsequent runs of those in the frame at the bottom of the form (e.g. winner 1+ means the winner came out and won a better race next time out).
Report misslimerick85 December 6, 2012 11:45 PM GMT
easy beat a useful yardstick if uve ten pound up ure slevve
Report doantwin2easy December 6, 2012 11:51 PM GMT
not every race is won with a plot. most aren't.
Report Navel-Gazer December 7, 2012 12:05 AM GMT
You'll probably ALL find this quite funny but I prefer to work BACKWARDS from the biggest outsiders in handicaps, trying to make a case for the value - ground, draw, trip etc. as well as the some of the more obvious tactics (front-runners or good travellers)

I don't do so bad with my system, and you ALL must KNOW that there are often some quite inexplicable results, as you've been nailed by such rags!

It's even better when BEFORE a race has started I can get bets on 3/4/5 FREE longshots at 50+ on here, and have bounced them a few times with 5 or 10 point increments/decrements - very satisfying when it comes off Wink

PS - you only need the odd ONE to cover a week's gambling!

PPS - I lay them all (pre-race) at several rates under evens and even LOSERS have made me tidy profits - I'm pissed and I'm throwing all my secrets away! Laugh
Report Navel-Gazer December 7, 2012 12:12 AM GMT
PS - keep laughing guys...I'm making money! Laugh
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby December 7, 2012 12:28 AM GMT
Im not laughing. I can see sense in your approach. I usually look at the fav first which is maybe a problem.

What sort of prices do people look to punt at?
Report Navel-Gazer December 7, 2012 12:35 AM GMT
DJQ - forget about the odd pound or two as the handicapper does all that work for us...the ones he FAILS with (due to the rules) are TELEGRAPHED to all and are consequently false prices that the value has been ransacked from!

Try to make a POSSIBLE case for the outsiders...that's my system in a nutshell!

I appreciate there's tremendous satisfaction when you can actually get a 100/1+ forecast up, but that takes HOURS of work (as well as a lot of luck) and all I'm interested in is making a profit!

Since I started using Betfair, I have radically reformed my studying which nowadays is purely mathematical - it's also saved me a lot of wasted time reading as much form as I used to do, yet NOW I make more!!!
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby December 7, 2012 12:38 AM GMT
Are there races you give a miss? Race Types/Races where you cant make case for outsiders?
Report Navel-Gazer December 7, 2012 12:46 AM GMT
ANY handicaps!
They're fair game, as in a nutshell, handicaps give ALL runners a chance!

Even ones with ZERO form have potential for improvement!
Report Diamond_Joe_Quimby December 7, 2012 12:55 AM GMT
Yeah but are you consistently happy to punt 9/2 or 2/1 or even shots. I know you are mentioning 50/1 shots but what would you say is your average price. Surely going this way you must get to a point where the hoss is no bet?
Report Navel-Gazer December 7, 2012 1:04 AM GMT
I take all kinds of angles mate...I even do the 'mug-betting' I/R as so many seem to be scornful of.

The way I see can gauge the delay by the second count that the Betfair market is suspended.

I've had some tasty winners at big prices I/R that've been favourites!

It helps if you know your horses though I must admit I don't know them (individually) as well as I used to do.

For all the opinions on here...there may not be as many mugs as many want to believe...I am still astonished that Geordieland traded ONLY as low as 9/4 at the furlong pole when cantering all over Yeats a few years back in the Ascot Gold Cup, and just as astonished that Synchronised was only about 28's I/R when winning the Gold Cup last March.

I don't give a fcuk what anyone thinks of my tactics as they work for me...I make an amount I'm satisfied with (not healthy enough though) but I'm still waiting for the big hit!!! Grin
Report thegiggilo December 7, 2012 1:45 AM GMT
Very rarely are favs value in races in general,the price mistakes are elsewhere.Due to the uncompetitive nature of a lot of aw cards there are lots of races where they are matches and you could be betting 6/4 for almost guaranteed winners.
Report Navel-Gazer December 7, 2012 2:02 AM GMT
I wish I knew which ones they were does everyone else on here!

I once made the mistake of laying a Curley horse that drifted from an opening short price, lengthened, and then rebounded right back in, in the last two arse is still sore Cry

I've forgotten its name as part of my therapy is not to ponder on such miserable instances, but it was an AW performer about four months ago...possibly beginning with 'P' and about six letters Sad
Report thegiggilo December 7, 2012 2:11 AM GMT
Curley horses tend to be running in diabolical races,so i very rarely end up betting in them i don't even look at his runners!
Report thegiggilo December 7, 2012 2:27 AM GMT
I was going to say pindar but that hasn't won on the aw for years,only turf and hurdles.
Report Navel-Gazer December 7, 2012 3:21 AM GMT
Pindar - that's the one mate...4/8/12 and my arse is still hurting!

I think it was a massive gamble from 25's into about 3/1 then out to 10's and back into 7/2 in the last minute or so - I can't be certain of that but all I remember is having a rotten day! Cry
Report bf_fananatic December 7, 2012 7:53 AM GMT
The biggest factor to handicap winners are high street bookmakers, heres whyWink

1.....The advertise everywhere that you can win big and they have big winners and you can put GBP 10,000 on
Frankel or the rules state up to huge stake amounts but in reality if you consistently back at just £100
stakes you stand to be checked out by HQ calls and limited to smaller stakes, sometimes complete refusal
of bets on certain runners form there inside information database!

2.....They avoid payment on any large bet if any loopholes within rules or other means can be used
as a reason to not pay out.

3.....They clearly dont want punters to bet large anymore on horse racing as though they have made
billions form UK horse racing they feel that they should not pay a levy back now that they have
created other betting products that are highly addictive and thus want to show reduced business
across the shops on horse racing to reduce the Levy payments.

4.....They can no longer compete fairly with online betting business that are highly efficient
and still maintain that using un green shops with high running costs with little employment
benefits to local communities verses impact of high addiction problems is the way to go for them!

5.....They keep books on all punters that manage to do what it says on the bookmakers tin and
win and close down accounts and bar punters form shops!

Yes you just cant beat a bookie for handicapping winners Cool
Report bf_fananatic December 7, 2012 8:07 AM GMT
So basically the only betting company that is based on providing
a real platform to win on that doesn't walk hand in hand with the
traditional high street bookmakers is Betfair, betquack
clearly do and is just a rubbish clone to make a rich
tycoon a bit more bunce!

Enjoy the revolution and onwards and forwards ladies and gentlemenCool
Report bf_fananatic December 7, 2012 8:19 AM GMT
oh and by the by incase you didnt know, betfair payout huge bets in minutes into accounts, while
in my case once winning £900 was contested, fudged , admitted that I had placed the bet correctly
3 times in 3 different cases, but never payed me using a loophole in rules.

Yes corals you have a shocking customer treatment policy and I feel really sorry for that punters
family whom you left in the toilets dead for days, you are a rancid firm.Angry
Report bf_fananatic December 7, 2012 8:21 AM GMT
^^^my payout problem was with corals and not betfair in case you didnt work it outWink
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