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HORSES PENALISED FOR NOT WINNING RUNNING TODAY.
HORSES PENALISED FOR NOT WINNING RUNNING TODAY.
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you have helped me once again ykick. actually lost on your first one, but, won on all the rest, that'll do me for the day, off to Shawfield later for the Scottish Derby, bet ew on trap 6 in the 8-30. so thanks again ykick. cheers.
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@bairn
good to hear...PAMPELONE made it for me.....enjoy the dogs..trapstats for 6 at shawfield are iffy  |
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another good day Sir, ty
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@scare
an interesting day to say the least...tryin to keep one step ahead is hard work weather is a mess again which dont help me or the horses..but thats ok |
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you are probably right ykick, but they only run 5 dog races, the only time they run 6 dog races is in opens, 4 is a fast starting railer, if 6 clears 5 on the run up, should be a good thing to be 1st or 2nd, the heats are on b ettor.comscottishderby starting at 8-15, well done with Ad Vitam too, you really are a breath of fresh air to this forum ie. very helpful and not a bad word to say about anybody. cheers.
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Well done again ykick good luck.
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ad vitam..hmmm money came for it.why i dont know,must of been catching turtles at home...
thanks for the dog advice...i still have one system horse left and there is money around for it.timeform are tipping it which is great  ..we see..no big deal if its placed... |
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,must of been catching turtles at home
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6 non runners since 5.15 in the 6.45 at thurles..so much for reserves...12 runners 4 to place
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i must invent a new rule on non runners..does my head in..18 runners up to 5.15 in vicalus race..then 6 non runners just come out like that...vicalus suddenly favourite and 4 to place..he finishes 4th of course...blood boils...ok thats my rant for today
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new rule going into week 3..betunfair place rules...
rule 3 no bet if race has 7 or less runners and 3 to place no bet if race has 15 or less runners 4 to place all other bets will stand. i had a case this week of only 6 runners and 3 to place..longterm this is not profitable. ok on we go...  |
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Surely although Non Runners can affect the likelihood of a horse being placed under the Betfair system, this is reflected in it's greatly reduced BSP?
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i agree mightyfly,i will reconsider this rule..i must crunch some numbers....sometimes there is 2 selections or more in a race..that thurles 6.45 was a farce...it just annoyed me..6 horses taken out so late on.with 3 reserves missing out as well.....thanks for that...
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It was just a thought, although as you are backing the selections up with your cash, it wouldn't harm to leave them out yourself ( don't lay them ) but include them in your selections.
It may well end up that they show a profit. But if they don't it hasn't cost you anything. BTW, i'd be interested in the breakdown of horses with a BSP of above 2 and below 2, it maybe just me, but it seems to be that the majority trade over 2, which is surprising for so called improving horses. |
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DAY 14 WEIGHTWATCHERS RESULTS -5% COMM
ANY PRICE RANGE STARTING P/L +40.26 MISTER BLOOM UNPL WIN PL SP 2.18 +41.21 PAMPELONE UNPL WIN PL SP 1.66 +42.16 AMIR PASHA UNPL WIN PL SP 2.28 +43.11 CADORE UNPL WIN PL SP 2.04 +44.06 HEARTOFDUBAI PLACED LOST PL SP 3.69 +41.37 ELHAMRI PLACED LOST PL SP 2.66 +39.37 AD VITAM UNPL WIN PL SP 3.50 +40.32 VICALUS PLACED LOST PL SP 2.32 +39.00 MANOFMYWORD UNPL WIN PL SP 5.15** +39.95 DAILY P/L -0.31pts ROI -3.44% 9 BETS BARR HEAD NON RUNNER 6WINS 3 LOSSES 6W/9 66.66%WIN S/R OVERALL TOTALS 183BETS 129WINS 54 LOSSES 129W/183 70.49%WIN S/R ROI 21.83% 4.0 or under -5%comm same as above minus asterisks** starting p/l +29.23 daily p/l - 1.26 TOTAL PL +27.97 ROI -15.75% 8BETS 5WINS 3LOSSES 5W/8 62.50%WIN S/R OVERALL TOTALS 140BETS 93WINS 47LOSSES 93W/140 66.42%WIN S/R ROI 19.97% Week 2 over and a 32 points profit on the any price section for the week.the 4.0 or under is also holding its own...ROI looks very good at the moment..anything near 20% would be a miracle longterm  ..i would be delighted with a 5% to 7% ROI..on we go into week 3.. |
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Very well done, kicker! Impressive profits so far.
I've found that the profits are even greater by excluding horses which have only been raised one pound, though as you've said, it's probably better to wait until you have a sample of around 500 selections to see how it plays out. Looking forward to tomorrow! |
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WEEK 3 april 4th DAY 15 WEIGHTWATCHERS SELECTIONS
ALL PLACE LAYS EXETER 250 TROP FORT +4LBS 2ND LTO DRAGONS DEN +2LBS 2ND LTO HEREFORD 340 SAVANT BLEU +4LBS 2ND LTO SANTO THOMAS +1LB UR LTO 410 SPACEMAN +3LBS 2ND LTO LINGFIELD 400 SIX OF CLUBS +1LB 4TH LTO(A/W) WOLVERHAMPTON 530 SPEIGHTOWNS KID +9LBS SINCE LAST HCAP WIN 8TH LTO 630 VISIONSOFJOHANNA +1LB 8TH LTO IGUACU +2LBS 10TH LTO 700 APOTHECARY * +2LBS 2ND LTO ZAIN PRINCESS* +2LBS 3RD LTO BEAUCHAMP CASTLE +4LBS 2ND LTO SPIRITOFTHELAW +4LBS 2ND LTO 830 METHAYEL +2LBS 2ND LTO DUNDALK 620 LIBERTY GREEN +2LBS 8TH LTO 820 THE ICE FACTOR +2LBS 2ND LTO(a/w) 16 SELECTIONS * FINISHED 2ND AND 3RD SAME RACE LAST RUN.. |
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I think your new NR rule is a necessity Cow
Doing yourself no justice if not Lower end of markets in place done well again today Pamp - shocker Cadore & Mr Bloom - under or abt 2.0 & all NH - an aspect you making note of ? |
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Correct me if i'm wrong, it was set up to cover around 500 selections and then to analyze if their was any substance to be gained from the system.
I see no reason to adjust from the original plan and include all selections. If you are not comfortable in laying the ones above 4, don't. The same applies to races where N/R's affect the probability of a horse being placed as the BSP will be shortened accordingly. Again don't lay them with your cash if you are not comfortable with this. But do include in your overall statistics, as you have done with the over 4's BSP. Hopefully by the end of the process you'll be able to work out the merit as to whether or not they should be included or not. |
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@sweetheart
yes it would make sense longterm that the less a horse is penalised for not winning the more likely it will perform to its ability next run..the one pounders had their glory today....i will keep putting them in to get a good sample size...there is a long way to go in this....ROI cant be sustained at 20% surely..so that is a slight concern.but used with common sense how strong can it be in the win market...well at the moment from 183 selections 161 have lost.that equates to 87.97% win strike rate.used wisely its strong..even after 40.0 and 30.0 losers its still in profit double figures..if u cant make money outta this data u may as well pack up and leave the building |
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Not knocking this BTW, i'm interested in the whole process, but changing rules as you go along will not help overall because of a couple of setbacks with the N/R's scenario and before that a placed horse at well over 4's.
Keep up the good work, YKAMC |
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@mightyfly
u talk a lot of sense my friend....all stays as it is... |
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@madhatters
results stand..no amendments |
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No problem mate, i think your last post on the win basis, even taking the big knocks with the 2 at massive prices, that's still in profit. Show's it's worth persevering with and keeping a record of that as well.
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thanks all for your comments..much appreciated....
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Its your thread Cow & system
You do as you please My points were to keep track of what you were doing Flags for - Reduction in runners based on what you thought was going to happen the night before (I'd rather have runners on my side than a sml drop in BFsp which you playing in the place market) What surface was it run on NH/Flat/AW Cos in 500 races time you ain't gonna remember GL |
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@madhatters
i am keeping notes on it...this time of year it's prevalent..and mostly jump horses on fast ground..its nothing new...its better to put obstacles in front of a system to see hold it holds up longterm... |
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@madhatters again
 all these selections are raw..no form is looked at..so what i might think will happen in the race the night before doesnt come into it..i actually work on the selections in the afternoons as the info is there 24 hours before raceday... |
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WEEK 3 april 4th DAY 15 WEIGHTWATCHERS SELECTIONS
ALL PLACE LAYS EXETER 250 TROP FORT +4LBS 2ND LTO**** DRAGONS DEN +2LBS 2ND LTO** HEREFORD 340 SAVANT BLEU +4LBS 2ND LTO**** SANTO THOMAS +1LB UR LTO* 410 SPACEMAN +3LBS 2ND LTO*** LINGFIELD 400 SIX OF CLUBS +1LB 4TH LTO(A/W)* WOLVERHAMPTON 530 SPEIGHTOWNS KID +9LBS LHW 8thlto***** 630 VISIONSOFJOHANNA +1LB 8TH LTO* IGUACU +2LBS 10TH LTO** 700 APOTHECARY +2LBS 2ND LTO** ZAIN PRINCESS +2LBS 3RD LTO** BEAUCHAMP CASTLE +4LBS 2ND LTO +9lbs LHW***** SPIRITOFTHELAW +4LBS 2ND LTO +14lbs LHW***** 830 METHAYEL +2LBS 2ND LTO non runner DUNDALK 620 LIBERTY GREEN +2LBS 8TH LTO** 820 THE ICE FACTOR +2LBS 2ND LTO(a/w)** 16 SELECTIONS 1 non runner(15) CORRECTIONS TODAY beaucamp castle is also +9lbs higher since most recent hcap win spiritoflaw is also +14lbs higher since most recent hcap win |
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Excellent spot ykick. Its interesting just how few of these horses actually win. Pity the handicapper doesn´t take note - I´ve always thought it was unfair to put a horse up for giving its all. And it encourages sharp practices...
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u may notice stars next to selections from now on,this is for my own benefit in order to make it easier to identify low rises such as 1/2lbs when i post results.results from now on will also have these stars...this will make identifying patterns easier longterm.its quiet simple
1 star =+1lb 2 stars =+2lb 3 stars =+3lbs 4 stars =+4lbs or higher 4 stars =+8lb flat +12lbs jumps since most recent hcap win 5 stars =horses qualifying under both rules this is for data research only,but i made it in such a way as to highlight the more penalised horses..u may find it useful i def will.. LHW stands for LAST HCAP WIN(mostrecent) SPEIGHTOWNS KID SHOULD HAVE 4 STARS NOT 5..AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH |
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@tiptheodds
yes not many win..we have had a few on here..3 in particular RADMORES REVENGE,LADY ANNE NEVIL and PAMPELONE yesterday..between the 3 of them they beat 2 horses home..that says it all... |
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Still watching with interest ykickamoocow.
Just looked at Black Cache Hereford 2.40 and noted it's not on your list. Is it me - have I missed one of rule changes? |
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@top2rated
its you black cache rise is from his win 2 runs back when he won not from his last run..be careful with this.this was a conditional race so he ran with no penalty next run which is correct...then he was reassessed by the handicapper on that win and put up.the handicapper has no mercy remember this  ..u could put him in as a selection.but i dont..i always look for this and prefer to keep them out...i try and stick to penalty for last run as much as i can...hope that helps |
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Thought it might be me
Cheers. |
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@toprated
always question my selections..it helps me as well as u...in fact it might be better if i ask u why u think he should be a selection..that way we can talk through it..also beware of horses running quickly off the back of a win.when they lose after that win the real penalty kicks in.they look like they are raised for not winning but are been assessed on the winning run..that happens quiet a lot..always check the last 2 runs..look for that win in there 2 runs back.check the dates between each run.take 5 days off for 5 day declarations....if a horse runs 7 days after its win it would of been entered 5 days before.it will carry the mandatory 7lbs penalty.then it is reassessed and could go up another 3+...having lost the race 7 days later the new rating kicks in and it looks like he has been raised again for not winning..i do waffle on.... |
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Just latched on to this excellent thread ykick, going to join in for small stakes, g/l
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@chelseagirl
thanks for that...the ship set sail 2 weeks ago we are now entering icy waters of titanic proportins..so small stakes are good... |
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DAY 15 WEIGHTWATCHER RESULTS -5%COMM
ANY PRICE RANGE STARTING PL +39.95 1 TROP FORT**** PLACED LOST PL SP 1.71 +39.24 2 DRAGONS DEN** PLACED LOST PL SP 2.10 +38.14 3 SEVANT BLEU**** PLACED LOST PL SP 2.14 +37.00 4 SANTOS THOMAS * PLACED LOST PL SP 2.05 +35.95 5 SPACEMAN *** UNPL WIN PL SP 3.36 +36.90 6 SIXOFCLUBS * PLACED LOST PL SP 2.01 +35.89 7 SPEIGHTOWNS KID**** PLACED LOST PL SP 2.48 +34.41 8 VISIONSOFJOHANNE* PLACED LOST PL SP 2.65 +32.76 9 APOTHECARY** PLACED LOST PL SP 1.62 +32.14 10SPIRITOFLAW ***** UNPL WIN PL SP 1.92 +33.09 11BEAUCAMPCASTLE ***** PLACED LOST PL SP 3.45 +30.64 12ZAINPRINCESS** PLACED LOST PL SP 3.00 +28.64 13IGUACU** UNPL WIN PL SP 7.27 +29.59 14LIBERTYGREEN ** UNPL WIN PL SP 17.76 +30.54 15THEICEFACTOR ** UNPL WIN PL SP 1.48 +31.54 DAILY P/L -8.41 ROI -56.06% 15BETS 5WINS 10LOSSES 5W/15 33.33%WINS/R OVERALL TOTALS 198BETS 134WINS 64LOSSES 134W/198 67.66%WIN S/R ROI 15.92% 4.0 OR UNDER PRICERANGE SAME AS ABOVE MINUS 13 AND 14 STARTING P/L +29.23 DAILY P/L -10.36 OVERALL P/L +18.87 13BETS 3WINS 10LOSSES 3/10 30%WIN S/R ROI -79.69% OVERALL TOTALS 153BETS 96WINS 57LOSSES 96W/153 62.67%WIN S/R ROI 12.33% WIN MARKET TOTALS TO BFSP DAY 15 15 BETS 11WINS(+10.45) 4LOSSES(-12.67) P/L-2.22pts overall bets total 172WINS 26LOSSES 172W/198 86.86% WIN S/R a real tough day for selections with a 4 point loss alone on 4 selections in the 7.oo at wolves..multi laying in place markets is ill advised but all selections will be added blindly...laying straight in the win markets would of lost only 2.22pts.the maria staking plan in the win markets also lost today with four horses winning.i calculated that at about 4.5% with a 1000euro starting bank.i am still betting these selections using maria in win markets with the 11.0 top price limit at 0.4%..this i find the strongest and safest opinion longterm...on we go...2morrows selections to follow can anyone explain the place sp return of 1.48 on the ice factor in 8.20 dundalk..i cant |
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DAY 16 5TH APRIL WEIGHTWATCHER SELECTIONS
FOLKSTONE 310 REGAL APPROVAL* +1LB 2ND LTO PERFECT PASTTIME**** +8LBS LHW 4TH LTO 410 HAADEETH* +1LB 2ND LTO LUDLOW 350 COOTEHIL**** +4LBS 2ND LTO SCHINDLERSGOLD**** +15LBS LHW 16TH LTO 420 REDSKIPPER*** +3LBS 2ND LTO 450 GETAWAYDRIVER** +2LBS 2ND LTO WINCANTON 200 WARSAW PACT**** +4LBS 2ND LTO 300 DRUSSETT**** +13LBS LHW 4TH LTO 330 SPORTING BOY**** +5LBS 2ND LTO CLONMEL 655 D'D TRIX** +2LBS 3RD LTO 12 SELECTIONS ALL PLACE LAYS STARRY STARRY NIGHT |